Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

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In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.

The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.

Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WoodyFL:
Would anyone be surprised if the next model runs show 95L moving more to the east in the next few days?


Absolutely not.
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Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
I think the Tampa airport is in a "DRY" slot. I live just a few miles north, and I will watch my pool go up 3-4" and the airport says 1"/


Yeah lol I got 7 and a half inches from the big rain event last Sunday and the airport didnt get even half of that.
lol
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Central America on alert for more rains as death toll from storms rise to 38
Posted on October 15, 2011

October 15, 2011 GUATEMALA Two storm systems left at least 38 people dead and forced tens of thousands from their homes after heavy rains battered Central America and Mexicos Pacific coast, officials said Friday. Guatemala alone accounted for 21 killed, according to local authorities and emergency services. The death-toll in Mexico rose to eight Friday with three more reported dead from flooding and landslides in the wake of Hurricane Jova, which hit the Pacific coast as a category two hurricane Tuesday before later weakening to a tropical storm. Torrential rains destroyed and carried away bridges in Guatemala, where authorities confirmed 21 deaths and 55,000 people affected by a tropical depression, which hit Central America at the start of the week. Two more were missing as cleanup efforts continued, rescue services said. Rescuers recovered six bodies in Nicaragua and three in El Salvador, while Honduras and Costa Rica reported damage to property. Mexican authorities insisted only small repairs were needed to some venues for the Pan American Games, which began Friday in Guadalajara, more than 100 kilometres from the Pacific coast. The Star Phoenix
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Would anyone be surprised if the next model runs show 95L moving more to the east in the next few days?
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Started raining here (11n 61w) at about noon.
Still coming down, but not nearly as hard as earlier.
Just under 4" at my location, but close to 8" in some parts of the Island.
Expecting to hear some Flood and Landslide stories in the morning.
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Quoting Greenberg:
Ah yes. I see not a whole heck of a lot has changed since this morning, or really for the past couple of weeks for that matter.

I still see folks relentless blabbing about how the NHC is padding numbers (calling cat5hurricane!!) to keep in line for their robust projection of total number of storms in the Atlantic Basin. Honestly, who really cares. I doubt that is the case, though I can see why folks are suspect. Jose was a prime example. But, I don't think that's the NHC's agenda. Now, some folks on here with AGW, Yes. Agendas do exist in that case.

I still see Skypony linking infrared images from halfway around the world, and see Pottery yet lost and confused again with following yet another basic blog. Nothing new here.

We'll keep an eye on Invest 95, as CyberTedy is still clinging onto a thread of hope his prediction of the LBAR model comes to fruition so he'll have a storm to write about. Although I see a Florida Panhandle bias with some here. Again, same old same old.

I do really enjoy sunlinePR's maps and charts he / she posts. I'll give him props for not notoriously posting the same, redundant IR images of the Gulf or CATL like some do - Patrap. Good job sunline.

FLWaterFront....always liked your perspective on things. Your views and points are very intriguing and well written.
I've been lost for years, man.
Lost in the Knowledge that there are people who will not accept that we are witnessing ClimateChange, and that over the last 100 years WE have influenced these changes. Big Time!

I dont feel guilty about that.
But I do know enough to understand that we do have a Responsibility do what we can to bring things back into equilibrium.
I am doing that, in my own small way.
I will not influence the Planet, directly, but I sure do influence the people I come into contact with, in my community.
Because people are generally not aware of what is going on, until someone points out how things have changed over the years.

MOST people are receptive to Fact, when it is presented.
SOME people just dont get it.
I keep trying.

We have a couple of tree planting projects that are going real well....
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Quoting stormpetrol:


All I can say for now is what a big big mess, don't recall the time I seen such a large area of disturbed weather!


now it is... Im confused
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2428
Quoting stormpetrol:


All I can say for now is what a big big mess, don't recall the time I seen such a large area of disturbed weather!


thats not current
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2428
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
.....

Second best post of the day!
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328. Skyepony (Mod)
12E/95L wrecking havoc. Killed atleast 45 so far, way more than 4 Jova claimed. Guatemala worst hit. People are on their roofs in Honduras. Many villages are flooded & inaccessible.

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.....
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EP, 11, 2011101600, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1072W, 30, 1006, TD,
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Glad to hear that pressure is down.
Yesterday I was worried about a CVA.
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Pressure down a bit to 1005:

AL, 95, 2011101600, , BEST, 0, 191N, 878W, 25, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Quoting stormpetrol:


wow we posted that the same time!

lol yeah just noticed
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
new 850 vort map shows the area of vort is increasing near Nic/Hon boarder coast plus the vort near where they have the current position of 95L is splitting away

00Z

21Z

18Z


wow we posted that the same time!
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check this out
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new 850 vort map shows the area of vort is increasing near Nic/Hon boarder coast plus the vort near where they have the current position of 95L is splitting away

00Z

21Z

18Z
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some of the heaviest convection ive seen this yr in the carib. tonight
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You people need to stop lurking, we don't bite. :P

Yeah. Right. Uh-huh.
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Quoting Skyepony:


It's come south a few degrees since lastnight. Been more than the models expected so far.
EUMETSAT view

It'd be cool to actually see it reach TS status...Nothing can sneak up on us anymore, lol.
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316. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The revenge of TS Grace...



It's come south a few degrees since lastnight. Been more than the models expected so far.
EUMETSAT view
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315. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's a BIGGG area of low pressure, lol.


Yeah it is.. This is gonna have a hard time pulling it together unless something breaks free. That trough over Cuba may end up being the seed for anything that comes over FL.
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The revenge of TS Grace...

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313. Skyepony (Mod)
Greenburg~ Here's one just for you..You've probably wanted to watch both Russia & China burn at some point.. well here ya go. They are both a fire in today's MODIS's image of the Day.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Oceansat ~6 hrs ago.


That's a BIGGG area of low pressure, lol.
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310. Skyepony (Mod)
Oceansat ~6 hrs ago.

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Nothing to report here in The Easy. Just clear skies, mild and dew points less than 50. That's the desert for us.

In a day or 2 I will give my take on these new "blog features".I am still collating.

But I can tell you it's not looking good. Another attempt at control, it appears.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Didn't that become Richard?

Part of TS Nicole (in the image) was left behind in the Caribbean, which helped the formation of Hurricane Paula, not Richard.

Quoting Seflhurricane:
tropical does it looks like 95l will develop at this point

Its hard to say at this point. It is a large, broad, disorganized mess that is dealing with a lot of land interaction. Chances probably aren't as high as originally thought, but I still say there is a low-moderate chance of seeing a tropical depression form out of this.
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306. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Last year.



Ah, messy Nicole.

Maybe we could get from our current disturbance a messy Rina.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Last year.



True , but this mess is from N Florida to Panama, from Epac , CA , to Haiti/DR.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Last year.

Didn't that become Richard?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Last year.

tropical does it looks like 95l will develop at this point
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
Quoting stormpetrol:


All I can say for now is what a big big mess, don't recall the time I seen such a large area of disturbed weather!

Last year.

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All I can say for now is what a big big mess, don't recall the time I seen such a large area of disturbed weather!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You people need to stop lurking, we don't bite. :P
I like to call them the people behind the set.You know like a T.V show.You see people on the screen but there are people behind the scene.Lol.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ADJACENT LAND AREAS. DUE TO THE CENTER BEING OVER LAND...ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...CUBA. ..JAMAICA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You people need to stop lurking, we don't bite. :P
At least most of us don't .
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Quoting DDR:
Levi can you post those rainfall maps For OND for me TIA.






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now over the yucatan
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
Quoting Levi32:


The trough extends down in that direction but there is no separate circulation embedded in it. I would keep my eyes on the tropical wave currently passing over the Caymans which is advecting vorticity into the region from the east.
Thanks.
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95L down to 10 %
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
You people need to stop lurking, we don't bite. :P
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Levi, do you see any type of circulation just east of the Honduras/Nicaragua border or is it just my(and a few others) eyes ?


The trough extends down in that direction but there is no separate circulation embedded in it. I would keep my eyes on the tropical wave currently passing over the Caymans which is advecting vorticity into the region from the east.
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290. DDR
Levi can you post those rainfall maps For OND for me TIA.
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Quoting Levi32:
1022mb high over Arkansas is sliding east towards Georgia. I have talked before about how the increased pressure gradient over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida can help spin NW Caribbean systems up by throwing air at them. The question is whether 48 hours of increased pressures over the south will be enough to help 95L become a tropical depression. It has the Yucatan to work around as well.

Wouldn't land interaction still be a problem?
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Quoting foggymyst:
Well there we go.. wsvn said the low will not be affecting So. Fla.

And that would be why, when most of the models and such seem to think it will????
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
is it just me or does anyone else think that the COC near the Nic/Hon boarder will become our TD/TS or/H and the COC near Belize/Yuc will just die over land in Yuc or get absorbed


Been preachin that from the pulpit since morning,never really had an altar call, but 2-3 sames to be picking up the sermon! :)
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.