Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

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In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.

The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.

Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

Jeff Masters

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387. TampaSpin
4:31 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Good nite everyone.......tired tired.......
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
386. TampaSpin
4:28 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope it stays away from the east.I dont need no more RAIN.Or else I'll hafl to deal with what I dealt with on Thursday.During that heavy down pour it flooded and water came gushing down like something I never saw.I stared at it and took pictures instead of reacting like a normal person.


I believe the Cold Front does pick this up an yanks it into Florida.......and then up the East Coast. Although all the BAM MODELS have it moving WEST! Don't know

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
385. washingtonian115
4:23 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Um HurricaneDean07 those were the hottest storms of the 2000's.It's time to move on to the 2010's?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
384. washingtonian115
4:22 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:



Which way will i go.........???
I hope it stays away from the east.I dont need no more RAIN.Or else I'll hafl to deal with what I dealt with on Thursday.During that heavy down pour it flooded and water came gushing down like something I never saw.I stared at it and took pictures instead of reacting like a normal person.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
383. j2008
4:16 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Well goodnight all. My forcast for the morning is
95L- 20-30%
CATL/96L??- 10-20%
Irwin- 30MPH- 1008MB- Near Dissapation.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
382. SLU
4:10 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Trinidad Floods
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4857
381. TampaSpin
4:06 AM GMT on October 16, 2011



Which way will i go.........???
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
380. TampaSpin
4:02 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
The Central Atlantic is not even an Invest anymore........why worry about something that is about to get sheared completely apart. NHC sure thinks it will be nothing also.....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
379. j2008
4:01 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
J2008~ Look at the orange thin lines in that graphic. An anticyclone is the orange lines moving from a center outward in clockwise swirls. The more swirls, the stronger it is. The anticyclone for 95L is bigger & stronger than the one over the CAtl Invest.

Ahh thanks much, now I know.:)
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
378. Skyepony (Mod)
3:57 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting scott39:
Looks like 95L wants to play!


Looking at the ASCAT it has really come off land since the earlier OCEANSAT.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
377. Skyepony (Mod)
3:56 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
J2008~ Look at the orange thin lines in that graphic. An anticyclone is the orange lines moving from a center outward in clockwise swirls. The more swirls, the stronger it is. The anticyclone for 95L is bigger & stronger than the one over the CAtl Invest.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
376. scott39
3:53 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Looks like 95L wants to play!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
375. washingtonian115
3:52 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Igor was handsome.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
374. yqt1001
3:52 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Thanks guys!
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
373. Skyepony (Mod)
3:50 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Fresh ASCAT of 95L.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
372. Skyepony (Mod)
3:46 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting yqt1001:
Is this an anticyclone over the CATL invest?



And if it is, how much shear will it reduce (if at all) when it passes through the high amount shear ahead of it? And finally..does the presence of this anticyclone increase the chances of development? Thanks in advance :)


That is a small anticyclone developing over the CATL Invest. It's brought the shear down to ~5kts at center which is typical. If it holds together it should keep the shear around ~5kts, they need to stay coupled & move together though. I would say it does increase the chance of development..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
371. j2008
3:44 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting yqt1001:
Is this an anticyclone over the CATL invest?



And if it is, how much shear will it reduce (if at all) when it passes through the high amount shear ahead of it? And finally..does the presence of this anticyclone increase the chances of development? Thanks in advance :)

Not sure if there are any anticyclones present so I cant help you there. But if there is, then it should reduce shear and also help feed the storm, increasing chances of development. Add this to MJO maybe this week and things could get exciteing. Hope I helped.:)
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
370. yqt1001
3:37 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Is this an anticyclone over the CATL invest?



And if it is, how much shear will it reduce (if at all) when it passes through the high amount shear ahead of it? And finally..does the presence of this anticyclone increase the chances of development? Thanks in advance :)
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
369. j2008
3:36 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Sorry bout that, been a long day. Anyone care to get back to 95 and the CATL AOI.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
368. j2008
3:26 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
You can't retire a TD/invest so no, if 95 becomes Rina then yes it could be, just depends if Mexico wants it retired.

You do realize that i was joking, right?
what can't take a joke, or were you trying to be the smartest person here... lol

I was trying to point something out, but I guess I didnt see anything about "I'm Jokeing" so sorry for stateing the obvious......
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
367. klew136
3:23 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Our NHC forecasters in the Keys are to be recommended, a tough weather cluster to figure out ,,, AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A CLOUDY...RAINY...AND WINDY OCTOBER EVE IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS WHILE CRISP...FALL AIR PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE COUNTRY. WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WERE REPORTED IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS TODAY...AND IT IS RAINING EITHER LIGHTLY OR MODERATELY
UP AND DOWN THE KEYS AT PRESENT. AIR TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT BELOW 80F
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND CURRENTLY...AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE 76-77F IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE ANIMATIONS FROM THE INFRARED CHANNEL SHOW A
HUGE SWATH OF CLOUDINESS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF HUGE TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS TOWERING INTO
THE HIGH TROPOSPHERE WHERE THE AIR IS RAREFIED AND BITTERLY COLD.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHERE
THE AIR JUST ABOVE THE OCEAN IS FLOWING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AND
CONVERGING. CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THE CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT QUITE
AS COLD. IN FACT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CEASED TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF
THE SERVICE AREA BECAUSE ALL OF THE RAIN HAS STABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE. REGARDLESS...THE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER BETWEEN 10000 AND
20000 FEET IS SATURATED...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 100 PERCENT.
THICK NIMBOSTRATUS CLOUDS COVER THE KEYS IN AN EAST-WEST SWATH...WITH
CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FALLING OUT OF THESE CLOUDS. LOW-
LEVEL WINDS HAVE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS
OWING TO RISING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS NORTH OF THE KEYS AND FALLING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS SOUTH OF THE KEYS AND THE RESULTING INCREASE IN
GRADIENT FLOW. EAST WINDS ARE AVERAGING NEAR 30 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST
5000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACCORDING TO RECENT DOPPLER VAD WIND
PROFILE MEASUREMENTS. SATELLITE-DERIVED ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN CIMSS GROUP INDICATE THAT A NARROW CYCLONIC VORTICITY
AND CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED NEARLY DIRECTLY
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...EXTENDING FROM EAST
TO WEST. FINALLY...THE KEYS REMAIN SITUATED BENEATH THE RIGHT-REAR
ENTRANCE REGION OF A LARGE JET STREAK. THE UPSHOT IS THAT DEEP ASCENT
IS OCCURRING OVER A THICK LAYER OF ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED AIR...
ATOP A CONVERGENT TROPICAL MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MEANS MORE
CLOUDS...RAIN...AND WIND...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO FEATURE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND 80 PERCENT SUNDAY.
&&
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 130
366. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:20 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
lol, just realized 12 days ago was my anniversary to officially joining the blog... been so busy didn't really notice. I lurked for the longest time, and decided to finally join

lol, look at our join dates and then our comment count differences.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
365. HurricaneDean07
3:19 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
lol, just realized 12 days ago was my anniversary to officially joining the blog... been so busy didn't really notice. I lurked for the longest time, and decided to finally join
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
364. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:15 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
The 10% CATL invest is definitely looking much better today than it did this afternoon when it was practically devoid of convection:

invest

I'm not saying anything will necessarily come of it; I just thought I'd mention it...

Eyup.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
363. HurricaneDean07
3:12 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
You can't retire a TD/invest so no, if 95 becomes Rina then yes it could be, just depends if Mexico wants it retired.

You do realize that i was joking, right?
what can't take a joke, or were you trying to be the smartest person here... lol
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
362. Neapolitan
3:11 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
The 10% CATL invest is definitely looking much better today than it did this afternoon when it was practically devoid of convection:

invest

I'm not saying anything will necessarily come of it; I just thought I'd mention it...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13457
361. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:11 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting JLPR2:


Then my dead plants will haunt your dreams.

Of course they will...lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
360. JLPR2
3:10 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, I will flip it back on July 12, 2012.


Then my dead plants will haunt your dreams.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
359. HurricaneDean07
3:09 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Hottest storms around ;) (wink wink)
2004:
Charley

Frances

Ivan

Jeanne


2005:
Dennis

Emily

Katrina

Rita

Wilma


2007:
Dean

Felix


2008:
Gustav

Ike

Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
358. WeatherNerdPR
3:09 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Off to bed, good night all.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5627
357. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:08 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting JLPR2:


LOL! Flip it back on! xD



Ah yes, we don't know what we have till we loose it. :\

No, I will flip it back on July 12, 2012.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
356. JLPR2
3:06 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sorry, I was looking for the switch to turn the 2011 Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons off...Must've flipped the wrong one.


LOL! Flip it back on! xD

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

LOL We complain about heavy rains for months and when they go away we want them back. XD


Ah yes, we don't know what we have till we loose it. :\
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
355. j2008
3:01 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Does anyone think 12-E/95L should just be retired already?lol.
I mean 45 deaths? thats just 11 less than what Irene claimed...
Irene will be our only storm that retires this year, unless something else comes along...
You can't retire a TD/invest so no, if 95 becomes Rina then yes it could be, just depends if Mexico wants it retired.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
354. WeatherNerdPR
3:00 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting JLPR2:


Actually I wouldn't mind a inch or two in my area. The plants are dry.

The rain just stopped in my area approx two weeks ago and we barely had any since then, it's like someone flipped a switch.

LOL We complain about heavy rains for months and when they go away we want them back. XD
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5627
353. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:00 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting JLPR2:


Actually I wouldn't mind an inch or two in my area. The plants are dry.

The rain just stopped in my area approx two weeks ago and we barely had any since then, it's like someone flipped a switch.

Sorry, I was looking for the switch to turn the 2011 Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons off...Must've flipped the wrong one.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
352. JLPR2
2:58 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
It seems 95L and the CATL invest are getting their act together.

Both are looking nicer.
95L:


INVEST:
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
351. JLPR2
2:56 AM GMT on October 16, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
This island can't go a day without rain, can it? :/


Actually I wouldn't mind an inch or two in my area. The plants are dry.

The rain just stopped in my area approx two weeks ago and we barely had any since then, it's like someone flipped a switch.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I have to admit its been almost unnatural how there hasn't been a single hurricane season that is absolutely filled with beautiful storms since 2005/2008(Somewhat). The Cat.5 drought will continue, and the US will get off scot free(well besides Irene) this year. The US doesn't need them anyway, we can barely sustain the stock market and the economy with a season with fish storms.

2010 had some beautiful storms... Earl, Danielle(somewhat), Igor, Julia(somewhat), Karl(somewhat).

And 2011 has had Irene, Katia, and Ophelia.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
I have to admit its been almost unnatural how there hasn't been a single hurricane season that is absolutely filled with beautiful storms since 2005/2008(Somewhat). The Cat.5 drought will continue, and the US will get off scot free(well besides Irene) this year. The US doesn't need them anyway, we can barely sustain the stock market and the economy with a season with fish storms.

2010 had some beautiful storms... Earl, Danielle(somewhat), Igor, Julia(somewhat), Karl(somewhat).
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Does anyone think 12-E/95L should just be retired already? I mean 45 deaths??? thats just 11 less than what Irene claimed...
Just sayin

Uh...no?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
Does anyone think 12-E/95L should just be retired already?lol.
I mean 45 deaths? thats just 11 less than what Irene claimed...
Irene will be our only storm that retires this year, unless something else comes along...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
The day has ended with 6 different intense rain storms... 3 of them had lightning, one had a waterspout. Interesting day to say the least.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
i dont think 95L will be the ONE to develop probably another low in the SW carribean


You think it'll be the one in the EATL?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i dont think 95L will be the ONE to develop probably another low in the SW carribean
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Quoting WoodyFL:


Not trying to be funny, but how can it be the current thinking if most models have it moving west? I see all the models moving it west but I think it will move back east.

I should've been more specific...That is MY current thinking, because the slow movement of 95L should be enough to allow for the trough to come and sweep 95L up and turn it towards Florida.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
This island can't go a day without rain, can it? :/
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5627
Quoting thunderbug91:


Yeah lol I got 7 and a half inches from the big rain event last Sunday and the airport didnt get even half of that.
lol


I knew we had more rain than what was tallied. The early estimates only showed .25 - .50 inches. Being at Busch Gardens all day and night Saturday, I figured we got at least 4 inches.
Funniest thing is was when I got back to my apartment complex, the friggin sprinklers were on. Palm meet forehead.... Lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, because that is the current thinking...I doubt it will get into the Bay of Campeche like most models are indicating.


Not trying to be funny, but how can it be the current thinking if most models have it moving west? I see all the models moving it west but I think it will move back east.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WoodyFL:
Would anyone be surprised if the next model runs show 95L moving more to the east in the next few days?

No, because that is the current thinking...I doubt it will get into the Bay of Campeche like most models are indicating.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
If this thing does not develop, We may not see anything in the Caribbean till at least the second week of November or so.

However, the upward MJO pulse(i.e. Monsoonal Trough or Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) located over southern Mexico and the NW Caribbean is forecasted to move east toward the Atlantic and African coast by mid week.

Although Cape Verde storms are highly unusual for this time of year, they aren't by no means unprecedented! As we get towards Halloween though, NOAA shows it weakening. Especially by the 28th.

Looks like Florida will get a nice shot of low dewpoint air mid-late next week. Can't wait! Bring on the fronts!
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Quoting WoodyFL:
Would anyone be surprised if the next model runs show 95L moving more to the east in the next few days?


Absolutely not.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.