Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

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In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.

The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.

Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Good Morning!

95L is looking good this morning. I agree with the NHC giving it a 50% of development.
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Quoting interstatelover7165:


I think with this disturbance, we'll something of a similar track to Karl of last year.


Except it's going to at some point probably get pulled to the NE out of there with the trough coming.
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Morning everybody.

Cayman Brac -- nearly three inches of rain yesterday. Four inches of rain since last night, and looks like more on the way.

Pressure is 1010 and steady.

Well, at least the wild chickens are quiet this morning.
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Tampa will get this one
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432. SLU
The Caribbean blob is worth more than 50% and the CATL wave is not producing "disorganized" convection as they put it. Same thing they did with the pre-Tomas wave last year which had disastrous consequences.

"d. Forecast and Warning Critique
The formation of Tomas was not well predicted. The tropical wave that led to its
development was initially noted in the Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) at 1800 UTC 27
October, 36 h prior to tropical cyclogenesis. At that time it was assigned a “low” or 10%
probability of development. In the TWO issued just 12 h before formation, the genesis
probability was raised to 30% (“medium”)."
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I think with this disturbance, we'll see something of a similar track to Karl of last year.
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Dang.... looks like Levi was right... while NHC screwed the pooch on this one saying it would go poof while going inland over the Yucatan. They called 10% chance of dev last night to 50% now and moving nearly through the Yucatan straights vs well inland.

I think the *best* this could do is moderate TS before getting sucked up by the cold front coming down.
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SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

Increasing confidence.

Jumped 10 percent in three hours.
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Post 423

TY and yes they are!
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not going anywhere fast so theres time on this one unlike no name
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4891
426. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161143
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

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000
ABNT20 KNHC 161143
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
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Good morning. 8 AM:
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725

000
NOUS42 KNHC 141300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT FRI 14 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-136

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


Darn. Aren't They stinkers?
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Good Morning

Any HH planes scheduled in the near future?
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Quoting interstatelover7165:
Lots of heavy T' Storm activity with very cold cloud tops... Could we see Code Red at 8 AM?


been watching it for a couple of hours now.

It's looking awfully sporty right now in the Caribbean.
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looks like a 30mph td G men will wait to they get a recon in there as for the system east of the windwds watch out if it keeps moving west
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4891
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Link

look at a circulation of some type low/mid level scoot north under a mass of convection!! wow...maybe someone could post that loop?
Lots of heavy T' Storm activity with very cold cloud tops... Could we see Code Red at 8 AM?
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starting to get a bit of a look to it:

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Lots of spin in the Caribbean:

Link
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By Wednesday, a piece of energy broken away from 95L is a potent low scooting up the east coast as CMC visualizes.

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Pressures still on the drop, winds coming up E. of the Yucatan from buoy near Cozumel.

Pressure down to 1005 MB.

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Hmmm. Starting to get a bit interesting down there.
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412. JLPR2
95L was bumped to 40%

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
CHETUMAL MEXICO...IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS OVER LAND...SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...
BELIZE...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Mornin' sleepyheads! Looks like the mess in the Florida straights has lost a lot of wet overnight. Further south off Yucatan it looks like things are starting to build some to the nw into the bottom of the GOM. That would reinforce the precip forecasts for Florida that Tim posted yesterday.

Welcome to the blog Allan!

HH Joe.. I SO wish I knew how to capture and save those dang loops.

wellll, off to the salt mines, have a great morning, be back laters!

Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2587
Link

look at a circulation of some type low/mid level scoot north under a mass of convection!! wow...maybe someone could post that loop?
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Since the previous mapping for 16Oct_12amGMT :
17.7n86.5w, 18.2n86.8w, 18.7n87.2w, 19.1n87.8w have been re-evaluated&altered for Invest95L's_16Oct_6amGMT_ATCF
17.8n86.6w, 18.3n86.9w, 18.7n87.3w, 1.91n87.8w, 19.6n88.0w are now the most recent positions
Starting 15Oct_12amGMT and ending 16Oct_6amGMT

The 5 line-segments represent Invest95L's path.

Deriving the travel-speed&heading from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours
between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
Invest95L's travel-speed was 6.2mph(9.9k/h) on a heading of 339.2degrees(NNW)

Copy&paste cme, cpe, ctm, 17.2n86.4w-17.8n86.6w, 17.8n86.6w-18.3n86.9w, 18.3n86.9w-18.7n87.3w, 18.7n87.3w-19.1n87.8w, 19.1n87.8w-19.6n88.0w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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408. JLPR2
And this one looking is looking kinda... hmm...
XD



Kinda hard to swallow that this is just a 10%.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT of 95L.
Plenty of west winds on that ASCAT pass. Just needs to consolidate some and we will get a TD.

Latest ATCF (6z) has it as a 1004mb low with 30 knot winds

AL, 95, 2011101606, , BEST, 0, 196N, 880W, 30, 1004, LO
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406. JLPR2
ASCAT shows the LLC moved offshore.
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405. JLPR2
Quoting biloxibob:
I agree. When is D-Max?


In 5 or 6 hours.
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Quoting Seawall:


Hi Allan,
good luck in your studies. My Dad is buried in LaCeiba, a place where he chose to retire. Again, good luck with your weather interests!

Thanks I appreciate it and yes La ceiba is a very good place to relax except right now that have been very rainy since the last couple of days
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Quoting JLPR2:
It sure is starting to look promising.
I agree. When is D-Max?
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Quoting allancalderini:
hi my name is Allan and i am very intersted in meteorology i have been coming to this blog since 2008 but since yesterday i have decide to make an account I am from la Ceiba Honduras and Here in Honduras haven´t stop to rain at least they are 13 deaths in the south on the departments of Choluteca and valle


Hi Allan,
good luck in your studies. My Dad is buried in LaCeiba, a place where he chose to retire. Again, good luck with your weather interests!
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Since Neapolitan's posting of 95L's 1st ATCF report (for 15Oct_12pmGMT)...
17.0n86.4w, 17.2n86.4w, 17.4n86.4w have been re-evaluated&altered for Invest95L's_16Oct_12amGMT_ATCF
17.2n86.4w, 17.7n86.5w, 18.2n86.8w, 18.7n87.2w, 19.1n87.8w are now the most recent positions
Starting 14Oct_12pmGMT and ending 16Oct_12amGMT

The 6 line-segments represent Invest95L's path as of 16Oct_12amGMT.

Deriving the travel-speed&heading from the ATCF coordinates spanning
the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
Invest95L's travel-speed was 8mph(12.9k/h) on a heading of 305.1degrees(NW)
(303.75degrees is midway between WNW and NW)

Copy&paste cme, ctm, rtb, gja, 16.6n86.5w-16.8n86.4w, 16.8n86.4w-17.2n86.4w, 17.2n86.4w-17.7n86.5w, 17.7n86.5w-18.2n86.8w, 18.2n86.8w-18.7n87.2w, 18.7n87.2w-19.1n87.8w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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400. JLPR2
It sure is starting to look promising.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
how are you? is raining right now in NCwashingtonian115?
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Quoting allancalderini:
hi my name is Allan and i am very intersted in meteorology i have been coming to this blog since 2008 but since yesterday i have decide to make an account I am from la Ceiba Honduras and Here in Honduras haven´t stop to rain at least they are 13 deaths in the south on the departments of Choluteca and valle
Hi.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
hi my name is Allan and i am very intersted in meteorology i have been coming to this blog since 2008 but since yesterday i have decide to make an account I am from la Ceiba Honduras and Here in Honduras haven´t stop to rain at least they are 13 deaths in the south on the departments of Choluteca and valle
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Nooooooo!!!!



just one run lots cam change
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Quoting will40:
00z GFS takes 95L up the east coast
Nooooooo!!!!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
Quoting Skyepony:


Yeah it is.. This is gonna have a hard time pulling it together unless something breaks free. That trough over Cuba may end up being the seed for anything that comes over FL.


That is basically what local forecasters and the NWS is suggesting. That cold front will be quite strong as it heads into Florida. PWATS are expected to reach over 2 inches, combine that tropical moisture with energy from the cold front, strong lift and some wind shear, and there you go, perfect environment for lots of heavy rain.

As far as low pressure for Florida goes. The cold front may also cause some vort energy to detach, and the cold front may cause this energy to consolidate as it heads northeast likely due to baroclinic processes by then as apposed to tropical development. However, there remains a lot of uncertainly, that is just one solution.
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00z GFS takes 95L up the east coast
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Good nite everyone.......tired tired.......
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.