Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

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In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.

The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.

Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting kmanislander:
I'm off until this afternoon, unless I get rained out at the course :-(

Have a great morning folks


Hit'm straight Kman......had a Pro help me this week.....wow did he ever help me......i was just standing a little to far away from the ball......he got me so close and then made me stand up........Heck i gained 30yrds on the driver.......could not believe it and it keeps me on plain also.
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I'm off until this afternoon, unless I get rained out at the course :-(

Have a great morning folks
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Quoting kmanislander:
Wind gust of 30 mph and the rain is bucketing down. Not good for my game this morning :-(


This has been a prolonged misery in your part of the world... and I'm not so sure when it comes to an end.
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this time of yr the systems seem to zero in on the fl. straights strange yr so anything could happen dont need this to move further north
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This is a very strong Cold Front.........JUST My opinion but i still believe 95L gets picked up by it.
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Wind gust of 30 mph and the rain is bucketing down. Not good for my game this morning :-(
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Not looking good outside now.
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From Crown Weather:

Additionally, closer analysis using the CIMSS products reveals that this low pressure system may be redeveloping further east near 20 North Latitude, 85 West Longitude as low level convergence and vorticity is definitely increasing in this area. Buoy reports also indicate that pressures are falling in this general area and indeed a new low pressure system may be forming very near 19.8 North Latitude and 84.9 West Longitude. Should this indeed happen, then I think we will see a tropical storm develop in the far northwestern Caribbean just east of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula as early as late today or tonight.

Additionally:

Everyone across the southern half of Florida and the Florida Keys should keep very close tabs on the progress of this storm and do not be surprised to see this upgraded to a tropical storm with Tropical Storm Watches going up as early as Monday.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Kman are you thinking like me that the Cold front picks 95L up on Tuesday or Wednesday and moves it NNE


See post 477
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This is probably what also caused the NHC to bump the odds to 50%..


Nearing classification.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Morning Kman........yes that i have see system mover completely across the Yuc...and emergy as into the BOC as a named storm........yes that area is very flat.


The CMC is still taking 95L to the West then back into the NW Caribbean while the GFS goes W then lifts it out to the NE when the front comes down. I favour the GFS in the present scenario but these late season systems can be very difficult to forecast for track. Other models still take it to the W initially and that solution seems reasonable given the current steering regime.
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I offer you today's installment of Rob's tropical weather discussion from Crown Weather.

Required reading this morning:

Link

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The BAM Models are predicting 95L to move WEST over the Yucatan...HUM
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Quoting interstatelover7165:
Big Question...could we see a TS/TD at 11:00? Answer with all your opinions!
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Quoting LargoFl:
this is not looking too good for us here in central florida,any chance this could get stronger than a tropical storm? or is it moving too fast?


It may be moving too fast, relative to a stationary object, which is to say it's barely crawling.

I suspect it will spend Sunday pretty much where it is.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning.

Can you keep it on your end of the island for a few hours please ?

No rain here since midnight. 95L is just onshore the Yucatan now but the terrain in that particular area is flat enough to allow for TD status if it continues to organize. Given the winds the NHC might go straight to TS depending on how being over land affects it today.

There has been more than one system classified over land in that very same area.


Kman are you thinking like me that the Cold front picks 95L up on Tuesday or Wednesday and moves it NNE
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Quoting TampaSpin:
GOOD Sunday Morning to you all.........WOW 50% now on 95L.....Looks like it moved off shore some and allowed for development to occur........MODELS are every where but my best guess is the cold front will pick it up an take it north over Florida yet.


And if it does, and it happens far enough south... one word:

Everglades.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link

Here you go.


This conversion chart is very easy to use and no need to enter the values to be converted.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning.

Can you keep it on your end of the island for a few hours please ?

No rain here since midnight. 95L is just onshore the Yucatan now but the terrain in that particular area is flat enough to allow for TD status if it continues to organize. Given the winds the NHC might go straight to TS depending on how being over land affects it today.

There has been more than one system classified over land in that very same area.


Morning Kman........yes that i have see system mover completely across the Yuc...and emergy as into the BOC as a named storm........yes that area is very flat.
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Quoting LargoFl:
this is not looking too good for us here in central florida,any chance this could get stronger than a tropical storm? or is it moving too fast?
Barely moving at all. It is almost stationary.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8391
Quoting BenBIogger:


If it were to develop into a tropical cyclone, I would say around Ft Myers and north.
this is not looking too good for us here in central florida,any chance this could get stronger than a tropical storm? or is it moving too fast?
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Weather Calculator

This is the one on my Blog that i use if needed!
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Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning.

Can you keep it on your end of the island for a few hours please ?

No rain here since midnight. 95L is just onshore the Yucatan now but the terrain in that particular area is flat enough to allow for TD status if it continues to organize. Given the winds the NHC might go straight to TS depending on how being over land affects it today.

There has been more than one system classified over land in that very same area.
It has started raining again. Just went outside and picked 6 big pumpkins off my vines.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8391
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Also...could somebody give me a link to the pressure converter again?
Link

Here you go.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Long time no see. Weather has been very rainy and windy here too. Looked clear a little earlier but has gotten very dark again. More rain on the way.


Good morning.

Can you keep it on your end of the island for a few hours please ?

No rain here since midnight. 95L is just onshore the Yucatan now but the terrain in that particular area is flat enough to allow for TD status if it continues to organize. Given the winds the NHC might go straight to TS depending on how being over land affects it today.

There has been more than one system classified over land in that very same area.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
GOOD Sunday Morning to you all.........WOW 50% now on 95L.....Looks like it moved off shore some and allowed for development to occur........MODELS are every where but my best guess is the cold front will pick it up an take it north over Florida yet.
local weather guys are saying 60% rain tues and wens, have to watch this system closely the next few days
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Quoting TampaSpin:


1.4MB drop in the last 24hrs........but at 3:30pm it was down to 1004.7MB......currently stands at 1006.1MB and rising........just maybe a center went right over the top.


Could be...

They need more buoys... wish there was one right in the middle of the channel.
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Everyone i got the Floaters all up and running on 95L on the Website for you all as i know this will be on busy day in here. You can pass the word on to the other peeps.
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heres a cool weather calculator site someone posted yesterdayLink
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Quoting whepton3:


It's gettin' there. Keep watching a buoy in the Yucatan basin kinda sorta E of Cozumel.

Right now, it's got the best seat in the house.

Link


1.4MB drop in the last 24hrs........but at 3:30pm it was down to 1004.7MB......currently stands at 1006.1MB and rising........just maybe a center went right over the top.
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Quoting interstatelover7165:
Also...could somebody give me a link to the pressure converter again?


Here's one:

Link
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Quoting hurricanecrab:
Morning everybody.

Cayman Brac -- nearly three inches of rain yesterday. Four inches of rain since last night, and looks like more on the way.

Pressure is 1010 and steady.

Well, at least the wild chickens are quiet this morning.
Good morning. Long time no see. Weather has been very rainy and windy here too. Looked clear a little earlier but has gotten very dark again. More rain on the way.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8391
Also...could somebody give me a link to the pressure converter again?
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GOOD Sunday Morning to you all.........WOW 50% now on 95L.....Looks like it moved off shore some and allowed for development to occur........MODELS are every where but my best guess is the cold front will pick it up an take it north over Florida yet.
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What if... and really it's just a what if...

What if this low centers right in the Yucatan channel?
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Big Question...could we see a TS/TD at 11:00? Answer with all your opinions!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Went to bed with a 10% and development seemed unlikely, woke up to 50% and development more than likely. 95L could go straight to tropical storm status if this organization continues.


It's gettin' there. Keep watching a buoy in the Yucatan basin kinda sorta E of Cozumel.

Right now, it's got the best seat in the house.

Link
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Went to bed with a 10% and development seemed unlikely, woke up to 50% and development more than likely. 95L could go straight to tropical storm status if this organization continues.


Could indeed.
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Quoting interstatelover7165:
This is a little off-topic, but what we all do besides study the weather? I am a avid Sonic fan. Sonic Forever!
mega man
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Went to bed with a 10% and development seemed unlikely, woke up to 50% and development more than likely. 95L could go straight to tropical storm status if this organization continues.
looks more and more likely a 60MPH Ts is in order for florida
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
Went to bed with a 10% and development seemed unlikely, woke up to 50% and development more than likely. 95L could go straight to tropical storm status if this organization continues.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
very serious situation unfolding for South and west central florida this is going to be a significant rain event and we still have river flood warnings for several counties and looks like we may very well indeed get a tropical storm to close out the rainy season


I'm down here in the peninsula as well... starting to worry a little about the loops.

It's starting to look like a duck to me.

Today will be very interesting, I thought yesterday that by nightfall Sunday we'd have a pretty good idea what's in store.
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Quoting Hurricanes12:
Could this invest track NE similar to Wilma? Or farther north?


If it were to develop into a tropical cyclone, I would say around Ft Myers and north.
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Cuban radar mosaicLink
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
very serious situation unfolding for South and west central florida this is going to be a significant rain event and we still have river flood warnings for several counties and looks like we may very well indeed get a tropical storm to close out the rainy season
could be surge potential too on west coast of fl.
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Quoting whepton3:


Except it's going to at some point probably get pulled to the NE out of there with the trough coming.
That's what I mean.
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This is a little off-topic, but what we all do besides study the weather? I am a avid Sonic fan. Sonic Forever!
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Could this invest track NE similar to Wilma? Or farther north?
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very serious situation unfolding for South and west central florida this is going to be a significant rain event and we still have river flood warnings for several counties and looks like we may very well indeed get a tropical storm to close out the rainy season
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
Good Morning!

95L is looking good this morning. I agree with the NHC giving it a 50% of development.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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