Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

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In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.

The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.

Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

Jeff Masters

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It's very interesting that the NAM was the model that was pretty consistant with development over the past few days.

Levi and a few others held tuff with possible development. Everyone else jumped on the GFS's scenerio of no development and a Southern Bay of Champeche low.

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7557
looks like a tampa landfall as a Ts is the best bet atm
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It looks like it is under an anti-cyclone but very high sheer between it and Florida at the moment that could prevent any significant development in the long-term.

Link

Gonna be interesting to see what happens over the next 72 hours with it.

Have a Great Day.
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Quoting daveron:



good luck with that syatement i been trying to drill it in these guys heads that a major record breaking cold was coming to south fla for mid week and they just want to believe they are going to get hit by a hurricane...go figure..


Given that all your models that you've been saying would verify now all send it to Florida? Let me guess, you think they're dead wrong now?

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Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Wx, Rob from Crown Weather has a nice synopsis of what he thinks is going on with 95L (maybe Rina!). He thinks the system will leave something behind in Western Caribbean. What do you think?


Quite possible... given that the front that would push through the FL region next week would stall in the NW to W Carib, but a bit further S than the past one and once gain become a focus for development.

I do believe this could be he last shot at a tropical system at affecting CONUS and any future development would shift to the C Carib region.
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Goodmorning, 95L reminds me ALOT of Major hurricane Opal of 1995!
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Just checking in before church and will see Yall tomorrow. Interesting possibility down near Yucatan for a storm. Here's hoping for continued wind sheer to keep it in check cause it looks rather "doomish" at first glance................ :)
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Weather Underground Email Service for Tampa, FL Special Statement as of 5:51 AM EDT on October 16, 2011

...Increasing rain chances expected Monday and Tuesday with some locally heavy rainfall and flooding possible...

Deep tropical moisture will stream into all of west central and southwest Florida later today through Monday. This moisture combined with a weak area of low pressure moving northeast through the eastern Gulf waters and merging with a strong cold front moving in from the northwest will support increasing rain chances across all of west central and southwest Florida Monday through Wednesday...with some locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with localized higher amounts possible during Monday night and Tuesday.

These heavy rains will increase the potential for some flooding in the typically flood prone areas as well as over eastern Polk and northern Highlands counties which received high rainfall amounts during last weekends heavy rainfall event.

All residents living along rivers and faster flowing streams as well as those who live in flood prone areas should remain alert to any rapid rises in water levels over the next few days...and should seek higher ground if flooding is observed.

In addition to the heavy rains...isolated thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and occasional lightning strikes as well.

Increasing winds and seas over the Gulf waters will also produce hazardous boating conditions through mid week and small craft operators may want to postpone trips into the Gulf.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for further updates on this developing weather situation.

McMichael


By the way, that 1 to3 inch amount forecast is due to still uncertainties, the potential exists for a lot more rain than that. But, at least 1 to 3 inches, is basically what the deal is.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7687
Oh I see from the overnight models.. WSVN will be eating their words today.. yesterday they said sofla..and fl would not be affected by this storm. Is the thinking a ts?
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523. ryang
Quoting SLU:
16/1145 UTC 10.4N 39.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic


If not for shear, this might have had a chance of developing before us in the windwards...
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Quoting LargoFl:
this is not good for central florida alright, lots of places the ground is still waterlogged , we dont need this one


Yes but keep in mind after generally drought the last few years preceding this year, we could use a little flooding to "balance things out" so to speak. As long as it doesn't become destructive flooding for many many people.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7687
Weather Underground Email Service for Tampa, FL Special Statement as of 5:51 AM EDT on October 16, 2011

...Increasing rain chances expected Monday and Tuesday with some locally heavy rainfall and flooding possible...

Deep tropical moisture will stream into all of west central and southwest Florida later today through Monday. This moisture combined with a weak area of low pressure moving northeast through the eastern Gulf waters and merging with a strong cold front moving in from the northwest will support increasing rain chances across all of west central and southwest Florida Monday through Wednesday...with some locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with localized higher amounts possible during Monday night and Tuesday.

These heavy rains will increase the potential for some flooding in the typically flood prone areas as well as over eastern Polk and northern Highlands counties which received high rainfall amounts during last weekends heavy rainfall event.

All residents living along rivers and faster flowing streams as well as those who live in flood prone areas should remain alert to any rapid rises in water levels over the next few days...and should seek higher ground if flooding is observed.

In addition to the heavy rains...isolated thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and occasional lightning strikes as well.

Increasing winds and seas over the Gulf waters will also produce hazardous boating conditions through mid week and small craft operators may want to postpone trips into the Gulf.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for further updates on this developing weather situation.

McMichael
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Hi Wx, Rob from Crown Weather has a nice synopsis of what he thinks is going on with 95L (maybe Rina!). He thinks the system will leave something behind in Western Caribbean. What do you think?
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Good Morning...
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Updated 12z models...

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Quoting whepton3:


Lots going on... stands to be an interesting Sunday here.

Don't know if you've seen Crown WX yet, but he's guessing may be some TS watches up tomorrow... maybe not as far N. as you, but sure will be an adventure!

Read that. Great graphics, too. Thanks Whep.

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Hi!!, I living nears to cancun from last night the rain and the wind dont stop this system is over here.
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Quoting TampaSpin:











MODELS really CURRENTLY for now are almost in 100% agreement that it gets picked up by the Cold front and moves over Florida.
this is not good for central florida alright, lots of places the ground is still waterlogged , we dont need this one
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Quoting Chicklit:
Hey All, very informative blogging here this morning.
Thanks!
95L just now up on the Navy page.


Lots going on... stands to be an interesting Sunday here.

Don't know if you've seen Crown WX yet, but he's guessing may be some TS watches up tomorrow... maybe not as far N. as you, but sure will be an adventure!
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Quoting ARMudWeather:
Oh, Invest 95. Let me guess. CyberTedy and kmanislander will login shortly after little sleep from being on here the entire night drooling over our large Yucatan system.

Let me guess. They will be vehemently proclaiming this thing is "headed for the FL Panhandle"!

Oh, how predictable this blog can be.

Invest 95 = Dud

Next please...


Quite predictable.

Had the clock going on when the trolls would come out, thanks for verifying my forecast with your 17th post.

Doesn't look like a panhandle event, will be more southern/mid FL peninsula before becoming a major rain event for the eastern seaboard.
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Hey All, very informative blogging here this morning.
Thanks!
95L just now up on the Navy page.
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ive stayed up late few nights blogging cyclones. got to do what you got to do. since wrong name is going to be going with the flow i dont see why wrong name can not become a decent cyclone
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Quoting ARMudWeather:
Even if this thing does develop (funny how AWG proponent Neapolitan already thinks it's a TS. Go figure.), it won't come anywhere near America. GOM will feature a series of shortwaves, followed by a one-two punch that will have the loblollies in Georgia shivering.

Nothing to get exciting about here. Maybe a Cuba or Caribbean rainmaker, but coming no where near America.

Next please.

No one is talking about Georgia; you may want to have a look at a map (I can point you at some inexpensive ones, if you'd like). But after a cool night or two later this week, even places such as Valdosta will be in the very seasonable low 80s. I'm not sure at what temp loblollies begin to shiver, but I doubt it's that one.

BTW, I'm not a proponent, but a realist. Maybe you can pick up a dictionary when you get your map? You know, kind of a two-fer? ;-)
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Right now the stronger Storm on BAMD goes to North Florida while the weaker BAMS goes to South Florida........So any stronger system heads more North which is 99% generally true with all systems.


I didn't even look at the thing close enough... the map had all three... my bad.
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Gotta get out of here before some in here drive me nuts......i got everything up and running on the Website........you all have a good day. I will check back in late this evening when it might be more peaceful...........i doubt it tho.....OH GO BUCS!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Barely 9 am, and already arse-hats like ARMudWeather (excuse my french) are on. Lordy.

Pretty obvious what deck this guy is playing on, just flag and ignore people.


Already did every time..........GEESH unreal huh!
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19.1n87.8w, 19.6n88.0w have been re-evaluated&altered for Invest95L's_16Oct_12pmGMT_ATCF
19.0n87.6w, 19.2n87.8w, 19.4n87.9w are now the most recent positions
Starting 15Oct_12pmGMT and ending 16Oct_12pmGMT

The 4 line-segments represent Invest95L's path.

Deriving the travel-speed&heading from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
Invest95L's travel-speed was 2.5mph(4k/h) on a heading of 334.6degrees(NNW)

Copy&paste cme, cpe, tuy, isj, 18.3n86.9w-18.7n87.3w, 18.7n87.3w-19.0n87.6w, 19.0n87.6w-19.2n87.8w, 19.2n87.8w-19.4n87.9w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

See page9comment409 for the previous mapping (16Oct_6amGMT)
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Barely 9 am, and already arse-hats like ARMudWeather (excuse my french) are on. Lordy.

Pretty obvious what deck this guy is playing on, just flag and ignore people.
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Quoting whepton3:


That's the BAM(S) right?

Wonder what happens if we kick it up a notch?


Right now the stronger Storm on BAMD goes to North Florida while the weaker BAMS goes to South Florida........So any stronger system heads more North which is 99% generally true with all systems.
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501. SLU
16/1145 UTC 10.4N 39.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5282
Quoting TampaSpin:



DAM the BAM MODELS now just changes........doing exactly what i thought!


That's the BAM(S) right?

Wonder what happens if we kick it up a notch?
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Quoting superpete:

Morning CI- Sea must be rough your side this morning, straight out of the SE with 25 knots + at the moment
Yep. It has been rough since yesterday.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399











MODELS really CURRENTLY for now are almost in 100% agreement that it gets picked up by the Cold front and moves over Florida.
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FWIW... winds out of the NE at Cozumel.

May be an interesting place to watch today.
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Quoting ARMudWeather:
Oh, Invest 95. Let me guess. CyberTedy and kmanislander will login shortly after little sleep from being on here the entire night drooling over our large Yucatan system.

Let me guess. They will be vehemently proclaiming this thing is "headed for the FL Panhandle"!

Oh, how predictable this blog can be.

Invest 95 = Dud

Next please...


Funny enough.. I was hardly on WU yesterday to last night and kman just logged off due to weather.
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Nice job 491 =)
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For those that don't know what the BAM MOdels are, they are purely guidance models. The 3 are BAMS (shallow) BAMM (medium) BAMD (deep)....the very strong storms follow the BAMD while Depressions would generally move in the BAMS
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95L certainly looks like a TD (if not possibly a TS):

95L
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Quoting interstatelover7165:
Big Question...could we see a TS/TD at 11:00? Answer with all your opinions!
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DAM the BAM MODELS now just changes........doing exactly what i thought!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Long time no see. Weather has been very rainy and windy here too. Looked clear a little earlier but has gotten very dark again. More rain on the way.

Morning CI- Sea must be rough your side this morning, straight out of the SE with 25 knots + at the moment
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MODELS are changing very fast now......LOOK at the ones over Florida NOW!

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Quoting kmanislander:
I'm off until this afternoon, unless I get rained out at the course :-(

Have a great morning folks


Hit'm straight Kman......had a Pro help me this week.....wow did he ever help me......i was just standing a little to far away from the ball......he got me so close and then made me stand up........Heck i gained 30yrds on the driver.......could not believe it and it keeps me on plain also.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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