Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

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In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.

The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.

Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting spathy:
...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THE PEACE RIVER AT BARTOW
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
* AT 9PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...PRIVATE ROADS DOWNSTREAM FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 8.5 FEET ON AUG 27
2004.

&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME SUN MON TUE WED THU

PEACE
BARTOW 8 8.1 SAT 09 PM 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 MSG

$$
gee those people are going to be in big trouble if this storm slows down over florida, its a heavy rain maker
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42037
586. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting overwash12:
So,south Fl. is a pretty safe bet on where this system will be headed,or towards Tampa Bay area.


I like somewhere between just south of Tampa to the Panhandle. Still a bit of uncertainty. May only be part of the storm that comes up that way too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39357
12z, NAM at 48 hours, secondary low in the GOM.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9223
Quoting scott39:
If you go back thru the last 16 seasons to 1995, it looks like most of the TC tracks match up best compared to this season. Now let me be clear, Im not talking about matching all the storms up to the same exact time periods. And yes I know a couple more hit the USA. What stuck out to me was the patterns and how OPAL tracked. Opal looks similar to how 95L will track, IF my very rookie analysis is correct.


Can't see it making it that far north with the big front coming down. Probably between Cedar Key and Naples as a TD or TS with a cold back side.

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wow, 95L really took advantage of DMAX. Organizing good. TS winds... Interesting to see if it can get it's act together some more.
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582. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting overwash12:
What usually happens when a cold front approaches any tropical system? They get pushed or pulled with the steering currents ahead of the front,correct?


Yes if the front is south enough to grab it. Also tends to help spin things up too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39357
Quoting overwash12:
So,south Fl. is a pretty safe bet on where this system will be headed,or towards Tampa Bay area.
There is no "safe bet" right now. 95L still has to develope.
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There's no use reasoning with daveron, he wants to believe whatever he wants and won't pull up graphs, charts, data, ect to back up his points. He's more than likely cloudburst on another account, circumnavigating his bans. He reverts to bashing bloggers other forecasting on an amateur site instead of actually pulling up data and looking for himself.
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578. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT got a good pass of NOAA's invest this morning.. looks to be closing off..little sloppy still.

It's strengthened since lastnight with it's T# back up to 1.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
16/1145 UTC 19.4N 87.7W OVERLAND 95L
16/1145 UTC 10.4N 39.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
15/1745 UTC 9.7N 34.6W TOO WEAK INVEST

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39357
Quoting daveron:




levi has been calling for this to happen since september 25th...he keeps pushing it back and now we are in mid october and it hasnt happened...dr masters has been doing and excellent job this year....


Watch Levi's last two video updates and stop your rhetoric. Educate yourself while I hit the troll button on you.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


pulled NE usually.
So,south Fl. is a pretty safe bet on where this system will be headed,or towards Tampa Bay area.
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574. Skyepony (Mod)
NOAA's invest on the right, another tropical wave on the right..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39357
Quoting overwash12:
What usually happens when a cold front approaches any tropical system? They get pushed or pulled with the steering currents ahead of the front,correct?


pulled NE usually.
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Quoting daveron:



TC or HURRICANE not much difference you still pegged florida when the computers at that time were all over the yucatan even DR MASTERS..


Levi32 called this a likely FL hit since Friday and gave very good technical reasons for it on his blog, along with very impressive video version of the synopsis and forecast. He's doing a much better job than Dr M is here with his blog. Go look for yourself.

.... and don't call him a FL hypster! He lives in Alaska!

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What usually happens when a cold front approaches any tropical system? They get pushed or pulled with the steering currents ahead of the front,correct?
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12z, NAM at 36 hours, Low has moved westward a bit but not much (looks very similar to 24 hours).
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9223
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
We could see a Tropical System (T.D. or weak T.S.) affecting Florida Tuesday/Wednesday.

But due to interaction with land and a very short amount of time to strengthen, its hard to say if it will have time to develop.



i agree man i was thinking 60mpg lanfall at sarrasota thats just me
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If you go back thru the last 16 seasons to 1995, it looks like most of the TC tracks match up best compared to this season. Now let me be clear, Im not talking about matching all the storms up to the same exact time periods. And yes I know a couple more hit the USA. What stuck out to me was the patterns and how OPAL tracked. Opal looks similar to how 95L will track, IF my very rookie analysis is correct.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We could see a Tropical System (T.D. or weak T.S.) affecting Florida Tuesday/Wednesday.

But due to interaction with land and a very short amount of time to strengthen, its hard to say if it will have time to develop.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9223
Quoting daveron:



TC or HURRICANE not much difference you still pegged florida when the computers at that time were all over the yucatan even DR MASTERS..


And now the computer models are saying this will happen, and there is a huge difference between TC and Hurricane.

A tropical cyclone is a general term of a system from a 25 mph TD to a 190 mph Category 5 hurricane. That's a pretty large range of possibilities I left open, instead of saying a hurricane (75-110) or a major hurricane (115+)
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...no renumber yet?
no
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
It looks like it is under an anti-cyclone but very high sheer between it and Florida at the moment that could prevent any significant development in the long-term.

Link

Gonna be interesting to see what happens over the next 72 hours with it.

Have a Great Day.
but will be moving with the flow
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Quoting daveron:



good luck with that syatement i been trying to drill it in these guys heads that a major record breaking cold was coming to south fla for mid week and they just want to believe they are going to get hit by a hurricane...go figure..


You guys have short memories. In 2005, Oct 24th, Cat 3 Wilma was shoved through FL by a *very* strong cold front. I was in Marco Island for the whole thing, and the back side of the eye had bone chilling cold rain. In fact, that night, temps dropped into the upper 50s in S FL.

Not saying 95L going to make Cat 1 status, but could be a TS and easily, even likely, will hit FL as it's pushed out to the NE by the approaching strong front.
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Quoting daveron:



its in your back posts teddy just go back and look you dont wat me to pull them...you have been preaching that since friday teddy...come on guys on here saying its a wilma situation what a crock..



Okay, pull them up. Lets see them. I don't recall ever saying a HURRICANE would hit FLORIDA. A tropical cyclone, perhaps. I never stated intensity.
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12z, NAM at 24 hours, low moved back offshore.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9223
Quoting spathy:
Thanks Chicklit

I could only find yesterdays info.
So they dropped the Peace River flood?
I bet it gets reinstated later,(if this pans out)

This is old info from last week spathy.
But we haven't gotten any significant rain here this week, have we?
Here's the Florida site; maybe you can find more recent data: Link
I got to go! Have a nice afternoon; will be interesting to see what happens later on today.
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539.

Will be quite difficult for the 1020MB Surface High over Georgia to push 95L SW, especially with a strong cold front coming through the Southern Plains.
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Quoting daveron:



terry just look at the current setup and the steering how can you possibly think a hurricane could hit fla...come on terry you are smarter then that...think..


Terry? Who the heck is Terry? I'm pretty sure its Teddy kid. And for one, where did I say a hurricane would hit Florida? Your putting words in my mouth, you just want to believe I think a hurricane will hit Florida.
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12z, NAM at 18 hours

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9223
Quoting Seflhurricane:
this looks to me almost an exact hurricane wilma track panning out



itll proll be a bit more north
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...no renumber yet?
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Quoting daveron:



levi is agrreing with you guys because he knows how bad you want a wilma to hit sou fla...its not that kind of year or setup like 2005 it isnt going to happen guys...you lucky if this gets to tropical depression strength...


Now you're reverting to calling us all wanting a FL hit because we disagree with everything you've said.
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Quoting daveron:



levi is agrreing with you guys because he knows how bad you want a wilma to hit sou fla...its not that kind of year or setup like 2005 it isnt going to happen guys...you lucky if this gets to tropical depression strength...







I don't think anyone believed a Wilma type scenerio (especially Levi).
Wilma was already a cat 5 before she even approached the Yucatan.

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9223
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

If you look closely, the center is over the Yucatan. The convection over the channel is a very fat group rain bands.
this looks to me almost an exact hurricane wilma track panning out
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Quoting chrisdscane:
hold up guys if all the convection is in the channel shouldnt 95l center be in the channel 12 still shows it over the yucatan

If you look closely, the center is over the Yucatan. The convection over the channel is a very fat group rain bands.
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Quoting daveron:



absolutely terry it wont be the 1st time they been wrong this year...look i report the weather as i see it im not bias for a hurricane hitting anywhere...if i thought there was a chance for sou fla to get hit by a hurricane i would agree with you but i just dont see it with the cold front passing way south of miami leaving them in brisk north winds until friday...sorry teddy your computers will change it will go into the yucatan and then sw into mexico as the high pushes south...


Funny enough, you where the one just yesterday saying that the computer models where 100% right and it would go into mexico, now your saying those same models are dead wrong and that your right. Your right though, the models do change. However right now, they're swinging in the favored direction for October. Yucatan then a sharp hook NE.
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FGUS52 KMLB 161334
RVDMLB
FLC069-097-117-127-171334-
DAILY RIVER AND LAKE SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL
934 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

.B MLB 1016 DH12/HG
...FORECAST POINTS ON THE MIDDLE ST JOHNS RIVER...
: STATION FLOOD LATEST 24-HR CHANGE
: ID NAME STAGE STAGE DAY TIME 7AM-7AM
:
:ST JOHNS RIVER
GENF1 :ABOVE LAKE HARNEY Flood Stage 8.5; Latest Stage 8.17; Time:SUN 08 AM 0.07
SNFF1 :NEAR SANFORD Flood Stage 6.0; Latest Stage: 3.56; Time: SUN 08 AM 0.11
DLAF1 :NEAR DELAND Flood Stage: 4.2; Latest Stage: 2.60; Time:SUN 08 AM -0.01
ASTF1 :NEAR ASTOR Flood Stage: 2.8; Latest Stage: 1.97; Time:SUN 08 AM -0.08
:
...OTHER RIVER DATA POINTS OF INTEREST...
:WEKIVA RIVER
WEKF1 :NEAR SANFORD: Latest Stage: 3.59; Time:SUN 08 AM -0.16
:
:SHINGLE CREEK
SHIF1 :AT CAMPBELL: Latest Stage: 57.57; Time:SUN 09 AM -0.64
SNCF1 :AT KISSIMMEE AIRPORT: Latest: 7.55 Time:SUN 08 AM -0.33
:
:ST JOHNS RIVER
MELF1 :NEAR MELBOURNE: Latest: 8.04; Time:SUN 09 AM 0.20
COCF1 :NEAR COCOA: Latest: 15.93; Time:SUN 09 AM 0.06
LKJF1 :LAKE JESUP OUTLET: Latest: 4.21; Time:SUN 08 AM 0.16
:
:LITTLE ECONLOCKHATCHEE RIVER
LECF1 :NEAR OVIEDO: Latest: 33.57; Time:SUN 09 AM -0.51
:
.END
:
.A MLB 1016 DH12/QR
...ST JOHNS RIVER CONTROL DISCHARGE STRUCTURE...
:
: OBSERVED 24 HOUR
: DISCHARGE CHANGE
: (CF/S)
:
COAF1 :12W COCOA: M.: M.
.END

$$

[top]
000
SRUS42 KTAE 161330
RRMTAE

:SHEF ENCODED 6 MINUTE NOS WATER LEVEL DATA (NAVD88 DATUM)
:SOURCE - NATIONAL WATER LEVEL OBSERVATION NETWORK (NWLON)
:DATA CONVERTED FROM MLLW IN FEET TO ZERO FEET NAVD88
:BY WFO TALLAHASSEE

.A APCF1 20111016 Z DH1306/HAIRG 0.38
.A APCF1 20111016 Z DH1312/HAIRG 0.35
.A APCF1 20111016 Z DH1318/HAIRG 0.32
.A CKYF1 20111016 Z DH1300/HAIRG -1.22
.A CKYF1 20111016 Z DH1306/HAIRG -1.27
.A CKYF1 20111016 Z DH1312/HAIRG -1.32
.A PACF1 20111016 Z DH1300/HAIRG 0.00
.A PACF1 20111016 Z DH1306/HAIRG -0.01
.A PACF1 20111016 Z DH1312/HAIRG -0.03

$$
Note data is from last weekend. Florida is a sponge; we can handle a lot of rain here and our flora and fauna depend upon it. Also building codes over the past 20 years have required water mitigation and management, so newer buildings and neighborhoods are not as prone to flooding. If our governor has his way, then those requirements will go out the window and future developments would face less stringent water management practices which means two things: destruction of property in extreme weather events and destruction of flora and fauna due to loss of habitat. This is not progress. Nor is it smart development.
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hold up guys if all the convection is in the channel shouldnt 95l center be in the channel 12 still shows it over the yucatan
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It's very interesting that the NAM was the model that was pretty consistant with development over the past few days.

Levi and a few others held tuff with possible development. Everyone else jumped on the GFS's scenerio of no development and a Southern Bay of Champeche low.

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9223

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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