Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

Share this Blog
20
+

In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.

The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.

Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 687 - 637

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Quoting daveron:



you are lucky if you get a weak tropical depression out of this...people in sou fla will be wearing sweaters by mid week so no need to worry about any tropical system...


God has spoken

*Claps his hands*

Okay move along, nothing to see here!! Thank god I was not going to pay attention to this; WHEW!!!

*sarcasm off*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Do any of the models forecast 95L to develop into anything but a big mass of convection?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seflhurricane:
the NHC gives it a 50% shot so that statement makes no sense and 60's is not sweater weather


must we quote the trolls?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting daveron:



you are lucky if you get a weak tropical depression out of this...people in sou fla will be wearing sweaters by mid week so no need to worry about any tropical system...


Yes, a T.D. a possibility or maybe just heavy rain,

And Wilma was followed by a cold front with strong cool winds out of the North.

So just because you get a cold front, that doesn't mean you can't have tropical weather just a head of it.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8351
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Inland where? Its circulation has already been inland, and is now offshore.
tropical does it look to you like the coc is trying to reform to the NE tip near cancun
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
sry for the wayy of topicness but who would u start today earnest graham or ryan torian
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
It looks like 95L is going to go inland before it can close off the COC.

Inland where? Its circulation has already been inland, and is now offshore.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32562
Quoting daveron:



you are lucky if you get a weak tropical depression out of this...people in sou fla will be wearing sweaters by mid week so no need to worry about any tropical system...
the NHC gives it a 50% shot so that statement makes no sense and 60's is not sweater weather
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It looks like 95L is going to go inland before it can close off the COC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12Z, GFS at 15 hours.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8351
knowing how the nhc works they will not upgrade until recon goes in
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
673. j2008
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Let's hope the only similarity is track not intensity. Could do without the surge!

Definatly hope you're right. Well time to go to church, take care stay safe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting barotropic:


I guess its still a bit early, however, with Wilma the models clearly reflected well in advance a closed coc moving from the NW carrib across S Florida northeastward. I have not found a model that shows that yet. The current models (almost all of them) do show a COC developing and than near Immed being absorbed, while the energy void of a circulation moves accross Florida. Interesting to see how the models depict this in future runs.
What do you think about an Opal path from 95?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
NHC has it still over the Yucatan in 72 hours so I don't think it will be before Thursday or later.


I has to be before Thursday. By Thursday the front will be into South Fl. clearing the state of precipitation.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8351
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It will eventually be absorbed within a frontal boundary, but it may still make landfall as a fully tropical entity.

The best comparison I can give is the Wilma/Front situation.


Let's hope the only similarity is track not intensity. Could do without the surge!

My blog entry reset my comment counter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just hit me...of course, S FL will have storm. I will be house and dog sitting this week for a dear friend. She has been out of the State for each of our last 3 storms!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So the front is likely to pick up 95L in about 36 to 48 hours?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It will eventually be absorbed within a frontal boundary, but it may still make landfall as a fully tropical entity.

The best comparison I can give is the Wilma/Front situation.


I guess its still a bit early, however, with Wilma the models clearly reflected well in advance a closed coc moving from the NW carrib across S Florida northeastward. I have not found a model that shows that yet. The current models (almost all of them) do show a COC developing and than near Immed being absorbed, while the energy void of a circulation moves accross Florida. Interesting to see how the models depict this in future runs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recon to fly Monday afternoon.

NOUS42 KNHC 161530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 16 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-138

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA OFF YUCATAN
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 17/1530Z
D. 21.0N 86.0W
E. 17/1700Z TO 17/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX SYSTEM AT 18/1800Z IF IT
DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT NEAR 22.0N AND 87.0W.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14600
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


I now have 39 on my ignore list. Bye bye Dave. Sigh...

Teddy and Stormwatcher, thanks so much for your informative additions to this blog.

Back to weather, 95L is sure looking good right now. Any idea on timing as to when she will head towards FL?
NHC has it still over the Yucatan in 72 hours so I don't think it will be before Thursday or later.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8435
Lots of clouds..super overcast all day, but no rain so far. I just hate getting ready for a storm that might just "spring up" fast with little time to do the last minute pre-storm stuff. If it comes in as a TS or minimal hurricane, ok. I just do not want to go through another Wilma type storm in October AGAIN! Once was certainly enough. I figure something will hit because I have been cooking all weekend and and loading up the freezer with beef stew, chicken soup and spaghetti sauce!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
-----

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
662. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It will eventually be absorbed within a frontal boundary, but it may still make landfall as a fully tropical entity.

The best comparison I can give is the Wilma/Front situation.

Lets all hope she doesnt pull a Wilma......But you never know, especially the way this season has been, Its pulling tricks out of everything it can. Should be a fun one to watch certainly, but I got a bad feeling bout this storm...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1049 hrs update from South Fla Water Management District...
A large low centered near the east coast of Yucatan is producing an increasingly organized area of heavy showers/storms as far north and east as central Cuba. This low is expected to move slowly across the Yucatan peninsula with limited potential for development through tomorrow morning, then improved prospects for development tomorrow afternoon and night as the low likely emerges off the northwest Yucatan. This low would then likely get tangled up with a frontal system moving across the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Regardless of development, this system will at least indirectly impact on our weather with strong winds and areas of heavy rainfall through Wednesday.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting barotropic:


Doesn't it appear , based on the models, including the gfs, that the system's energy is basically absorbed by a developing low over the SE. I have been unable to find a model showing an actual COC moving over florida from the NW Carib. Most are showing the energy in the NW carib rapidly being pulled into another low, over land. ??

It will eventually be absorbed within a frontal boundary, but it may still make landfall as a fully tropical entity.

The best comparison I can give is the Wilma/Front situation.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32562
655. Much appreciated, thanks!

If I had to guess, I might say early this week but I'm not sure of that. Already moisture associated with it is approaching the Florida area.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24511
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


I now have 39 on my ignore list. Bye bye Dave. Sigh...

Teddy and Stormwatcher, thanks so much for your informative additions to this blog.

Back to weather, 95L is sure looking good right now. Any idea on timing as to when she will head towards FL?

Well, its headed generally towards the northwest right now, so it will need to turn north, then northeast...All this should occur over the next three days. We should see whatever it is make landfall in Florida in four days or so, IMO.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32562
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.

Invest 95L improved in organization significantly last night...and is now very close to tropical storm status. When, and if, if does reach tropical storm statuses, watches will likely go up for Florida, as it appears likely that "Rina" will head towards Florida. All of the models that showed the system moving into the Bay of Campeche were wrong.



Doesn't it appear , based on the models, including the gfs, that the system's energy is basically absorbed by a developing low over the SE. I have been unable to find a model showing an actual COC moving over florida from the NW Carib. Most are showing the energy in the NW carib rapidly being pulled into another low, over land. ??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I didn't say anything about recon...

What you need to do is take your mouse, go to the top of the page, click "Sign Out", close your browser, get off your computer, and do something productive instead of trying to stir trouble on a weather forum.


I now have 39 on my ignore list. Bye bye Dave. Sigh...

Teddy and Stormwatcher, thanks so much for your informative additions to this blog.

Back to weather, 95L is sure looking good right now. Any idea on timing as to when she will head towards FL?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


I just made a short Blog entry and now it works. I really try not to "IGNORE" anyone, but some have just become too annoying!!!


Ok good, glad that worked. Im really conservative with the iggy myself, but once I have had enough, then poof.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You have to make a blog entry before you can use the ignore feature.


Are you sure? I have no blog entry yet mine works.
Unless maybe I created one then deleted it, IDK. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:


It is a known bug in this site, and only happens the first time. There is a procedure to enable the iggy, but its been so long I no longer remember how.
Hoping someone will remember and instruct you.


I just made a short Blog entry and now it works. I really try not to "IGNORE" anyone, but some have just become too annoying!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You have to make a blog entry before you can use the ignore feature.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32562
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i have a feeling the center of 95L is trying to reform in the vicinity of the cancun area look at the NE tip of the yucatan
I see it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rain is coming down HARD and gusty winds.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8435
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
I am trying to use my "Iggy" button for the first time ever but it takes me here, "ChillinInTheKeys does not have any blog entries". What's up with that?

Tried it on FF & IE.


It is a known bug in this site, and only happens the first time. There is a procedure to enable the iggy, but its been so long I no longer remember how.
Hoping someone will remember and instruct you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
daveron went POOF!

And then there was peace!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Meh, I was plussing everybody elses and plussed one of his :\
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32562
daveron went POOF!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i have a feeling the center of 95L is trying to reform in the vicinity of the cancun area look at the NE tip of the yucatan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
642. j2008
Thanks everyone! Well it looks as if 95 and CATL AOI will become storms IMO, just look what MJO did in the EPAC when it was passing through. It spun up a Major, a Hurricane, and a TD. Should make for a fun show in the Atlantic, unless we get the atlantic version of Jova......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Don't waste your breath and risk being banned. Stick to the weather and ignore.


I just wanted to give the kid a chance because he does seem to know a bit about weather, maybe he could learn a thing or two. But its apparent he doesn't, he's only here to stir up trouble. I'll take your advice to heart and ignore him.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24511
Quoting daveron:




well according to tropical ana 13 its nearing tropical storm strength and its going to hit fla so i think if storm w thought that and levi also they would post so try again teddy boy..
Well, what do you know.

NHC
IN ADDITION...WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8435
Quoting CybrTeddy:
632. If it where to make landfall in Florida it wouldn't do so until later this week, not today. Henceforth, no update from StormW. Whatever, I'm done dealing with you. Your here to stir up trouble and are about as hard headed as a brick wall, so I'm just going to say good day sir.
cyber just relax and ignore this idiot
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Don't waste your breath and risk being banned. Stick to the weather and ignore.
Agreed.. StormW hasnt made a post today either..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
632. If it where to make landfall in Florida it wouldn't do so until later this week, not today. Henceforth, no update from StormW. Whatever, I'm done dealing with you. Your here to stir up trouble and are about as hard headed as a brick wall, so I'm just going to say good day sir.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24511

Viewing: 687 - 637

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
42 °F
Light Rain