Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

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In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.

The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.

Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Did the blog change to where the most recent page is now the first instead of the last? And the most recent posts are at the top now?
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Wow...people spending their time the entire day watching a low to develop.Boring.
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Tropical Wave + Caribbean Disturbace + Strong MJO = HEAVY HEAVY Rain

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32259
Quoting ITCZmike:
NOLA NOLA NOLA NOLA. NOLA!!

Ratrap's 100% NOLA.

NOLA NOLA NOLA NOLA. NOLA!!

He a 1,000% NOLA.

">

LOL

Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: July 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 30





2nd time that racist mistake or error is posted here....
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Quoting pottery:

Coming your way?


Heavy rain and wind heading his way.
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131. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Heavy here since about noon.
An inch or so, so far.
Stopped now.
Ground is soaked from the showers this week.
First time in a LONG while.....

Nice,about an inch and still coming down.Ground soaked with heavy rain that cant be good...
Looks like a repeat of last years La nina rain and floods.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys let not worry about where the COC is right now lets just say its a broad area of low pressure however I do have to say it just seems that the center of the broad area of low pressure is located near 15/16N 81/82W and very very slowly shifting N

Coming your way?
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Quoting DDR:
oh boy,its pouring here in Trinidad,radar doesnt look pretty eitherLink

Heavy here since about noon.
An inch or so, so far.
Stopped now.
Ground is soaked from the showers this week.
First time in a LONG while.....
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127. DDR
oh boy,its pouring here in Trinidad,radar doesnt look pretty eitherLink
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hey guys let not worry about where the COC is right now lets just say its a broad area of low pressure however I do have to say it just seems that the center of the broad area of low pressure is located near 15/16N 81/82W and very very slowly shifting N
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95L is moving slightly north of northwest:

AL, 95, 2011101518, , BEST, 0, 187N, 872W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
img src="">

About 1/2 hour ago looking west from spotts beach south side grand cayman

Great image!
Thanks for showing that.
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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


Tks ;-) rains slowed to a drizzle for now but looks like a LOT more on the way over the next day or two

South FL might get our share too. I sure wish I were in that tropical setting right now, tho, rain or no rain! I do so love to visit the islands of the Carrib! Beautiful water and beaches...not mention good beer and rum!
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

AWESOME photo!! Thanks for sharing.


Tks ;-) rains slowed to a drizzle for now but looks like a LOT more on the way over the next day or two
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, October 15th, with Video
Thanks Levi, great tibit as usual!
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212

WHXX01 KWBC 151514

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1514 UTC SAT OCT 15 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20111015 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

111015 1200 111016 0000 111016 1200 111017 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.4N 86.4W 18.5N 87.2W 18.9N 88.5W 19.1N 89.9W

BAMD 17.4N 86.4W 18.8N 87.2W 19.9N 88.3W 20.7N 89.9W

BAMM 17.4N 86.4W 18.7N 87.1W 19.4N 88.2W 19.9N 89.7W

LBAR 17.4N 86.4W 18.8N 87.2W 20.9N 88.0W 23.2N 88.5W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 29KTS 27KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

111017 1200 111018 1200 111019 1200 111020 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 19.1N 91.1W 19.7N 92.3W 18.1N 93.1W 14.9N 95.5W

BAMD 21.0N 91.4W 21.4N 93.2W 21.5N 93.4W 20.4N 90.8W

BAMM 20.0N 91.1W 20.4N 93.1W 19.7N 94.8W 17.7N 97.4W

LBAR 25.3N 88.2W 30.3N 82.7W 38.5N 67.3W 41.7N 59.2W

SHIP 53KTS 63KTS 60KTS 49KTS

DSHP 33KTS 43KTS 40KTS 28KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.4N LONCUR = 86.4W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 2KT

LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 86.4W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 2KT

LATM24 = 16.6N LONM24 = 86.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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Quoting Patrap:
I always wondered, Who is "Mark" ?



: )

mark be the centre of the image

:)
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A tropical wave just west of Jamaica is coming into the sandbox to play with the broad low in the western Caribbean. This may enhance vorticity over the water just east of the main low which is hugging the Belize coastline according to radar. The Caymans are about to get the big shot of rain that Kingston just got.

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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
img src="">

About 1/2 hour ago looking west from spotts beach south side grand cayman

AWESOME photo!! Thanks for sharing.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/INV/95L
MARK
19.96N/84.63W


Well, that post does not confirm "slow to develop" to me! JMHO
Lots of clouds in S. Florida all, but no rain so far. We still need rain although not as dangerously dry as earlier in the summer. We are still behind on total rainfall amount, Lake Okeechobee is still to low for comfort, soooo bring us some more please 95L.
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Lake Erie's Toxic Algae Bloom Seen From Space: Green Scum Rampant In The Great Lakes (PHOTOS)



Toxic algae is sucking the oxygen out of Lake Erie.

The lake is currently undergoing one of the worst algae blooms in decades, turning the water a scummy bright green. According to NASA, blooms like this did occur in the 1950's and 60's, but now phosphorus from farms, sewage, and industry have fertilized the waters.

After the 60's, increased regulations and improvements in agriculture and sewage treatment limited the phosphorus and helped to control the blooms. However, the shallower Western basin near Detroit has been more susceptible to the algae than other deeper areas.

The exact reason behind the bloom is a bit unclear, but scientists believe it could be linked to increased rainfall and, believe it or not, mussels. It seems the types of mussel, zebra and quagga that have invaded the lake feed on phytoplankton instead of algae, making it even easier for the blooms to occur, according to NASA.

While the algae doesn't directly kill fish, it's still not good. As the algae dies, it's broken down by bacteria which uses oxygen from the water. This oxygen removal creates areas where fish can't survive. In addition, if consumed, it can also create flu-like symptoms in people or even kill pets.

Former Vice President Al Gore spoke Thursday in Detroit on the matter, associating climate change with the algae problem. "We're still acting as if it's perfectly OK to use this thin-shelled atmosphere as an open sewer. It's not OK," he said. "We need to listen to the scientists. We need to use the tried and true method of using the best evidence, debating and discussing it, but not pretending that facts are not facts."

While in the past, some have criticized Gore, claiming that he's made exaggerated statements about the environment, yesterday's speech drew upon some pretty hard scientific evidence, leading many leaders at the International Joint Commission to listen a bit more intently.

This past summer, an algae bloom spread across a beach in China, dying everything in its path "a shocking bright green."
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Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, October 15th, with Video
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RAMMB AL952011 - INVEST


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)




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I always wondered, Who is "Mark" ?



: )
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Florida over all is in good shape with rainfall this year since our very dry/drought winter/spring ... the only part of the state still in trouble is the Panhandle.
as you can see from the drought map and the moisture maps.

and a few days ago all of South and Central Florida were blue and dark green on moisture maps.


These maps are measuring fire hazard and soil moisture, not necessary drought according to rainfall.


-------------------------

This is the real "drought map" for our area.




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XX/INV/95L
MARK
19.96N/84.63W
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Hi everyone,

just checking in to see what is going on with our Caribbean blob... some of those outter clouds are slipping up to us here in SE Florida.


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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF BELIZE CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO...SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...JAMAICA...
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32259
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
img src="">

About 1/2 hour ago looking west from spotts beach south side grand cayman


Crazy weather but it makes a beautiful picture!
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Quoting kmanislander:
LOL

My forecast Thursday for the NW Caribbean to become an Invest was between midnight last night and noon today. 95L shows up 1 hour before the end of that period.



I've been lurking.. you did good! :o)



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img src="">

About 1/2 hour ago looking west from spotts beach south side grand cayman
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.
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I think the center of 95l is around 16N.82.5W, that is really the only area where I can see a distinct spin

Link
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Well the rain has eased off so I am going to make a run for it. Back later.
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TCFP 12Z. Focal point tightening up.

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Quoting daveron:


bingo thats what i have been saying all along...the yucatan and mexico get this system...


Yes, but there is a window of opportunity Tuesday/Wednesday to bring whatever does form towards Florida.
But I'm not sure anything will form due to interaction with land. It might just be a lot of tropical moisture that gets pulled up.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Raining cats and dogs down here continously for the past 2 hours or so and lots more coming. I doubt we will escape without a late season threat. Once a front comes down the low on the tail end will have all that TCHP to work with.

Two of the models ( CMC and GFS ) bring a low up from down South between now and Monday late so something to watch for there as well.
It has started up here now. Coming down very hard with gusty winds.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Yesterday evening, the NAM was in agreement with the GFS showing the Low moving west across the Yucatan. Today, the NAM has moved back to its original thinking keeping the Low off shore.

The NAM is just another model to watch.

I wouldn't put all your eggs in the GFS basket.

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The 925 mb map. 95L beginning to stack up but convection still spread very broad.

Organization somewhat improved since early today.

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The surface convergence is now co-located with the 850 mb vort. The NHC may up the odds to 30% later today.

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Quoting scottsvb:


How many times do we have to tell peeps to stop looking at NAM model output.

Only look at ECMWF and GFS

The NAM has performed very well this season, from Arlene to Harvey and Lee to Nate.

Its not as bad of a model as people think.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32259


It just gets nastier by the minute
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It's not raining up here just yet but not far off. It is pitch black outside. I guess we can consider ourselves lucky that so far we have been spared this year.


Raining cats and dogs down here continously for the past 2 hours or so and lots more coming. I doubt we will escape without a late season threat. Once a front comes down the low on the tail end will have all that TCHP to work with.

Two of the models ( CMC and GFS ) bring a low up from down South between now and Monday late so something to watch for there as well.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Florida will be off limits for at least several days once the front comes through towards Thursday.

So its either a Tuesday/Wednesday event or its going to have to wait until the following week possibly.


Don't you think though that after this next and more powerful front, the SSTs in the GOM will hinder any major activity?

If the current and conservative temperature forecast holds for next week following the front, I expect the GOM temps to drop by at least 5F below where they are now. This should especially be the case above about latitude 27N. Must MO, FWIW.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
So we DO have a closed circulation.
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Quoting kmanislander:



That really hurt you know :-(

I was about to run errands and the rain started coming down in buckets.
It's not raining up here just yet but not far off. It is pitch black outside. I guess we can consider ourselves lucky that so far we have been spared this year.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


One of the major issues is the interaction with land. What does develop should be ultimately pulled N.E. to meet up with the cold front. But as it looks right now, that will just be a bunch of moisture.

If the low could find a way to stay offshore as depicted by the most recent NAM, then we could see a more developed system affecting Fl. next week.

But the GFS scenerio seems most likely at this time.


In my opinion, it really does seem hard to believe that the broad and disorganized mess in the NW Caribbean will have the time to develop into a powerful TC and surge northward to slam into FL.

When one considers the monsoonal nature of the clouds and moisture in the region at present, the upper wind shear profile, the fact that a front just moved through most of Florida with cooler and drier high pressure behind it.. again.. and that another and more powerful front is anticipated to arrive within the 4 day time frame, it seems unlikely that a strong TS or hurricane will somehow hit SW Florida.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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