Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

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In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.

The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.

Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
NAM at 66 hours. Interesting how the energy has split with a low heading towards Fl. and another low still back in the Bay of Campeche.


Can you say Mitch? Well, without the Cat 5 hurricane of course. Same type of scenario though.
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186. SLU
{185. DDR 8:35 PM GMT on October 15, 2011}

Yes i'm still here. Haven't seen this much rain in Trinidad since last season. There will definitely be severe flooding given the low lying nature of the island.
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185. DDR
Quoting SLU:
DDR or Pottery still here? Whats the latest on the flooding because the rain is coming down REAL HARD in Trinidad today.

Hey,how are you?
Still going to uwi?
yes lots of rain,flooding going on.
Looking at the radar we'll pick up an addition 4-5 or so
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NAM at 66 hours. Interesting how the energy has split with a low heading towards Fl. and another low still back in the Bay of Campeche.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8194
183. DDR
Reporting from Trinidad just over 5 inches of rain in just under 2 hours,still falling heavy reports of major flooding.
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182. SLU
DDR or Pottery still here? Whats the latest on the flooding because the rain is coming down REAL HARD in Trinidad today.
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Oh well, it is still "within the quotes" of the original one I told you about.

I th ink when the page flips it will be ok so will check back after the 200th post.

Quoting Greenberg:

Hey, Almighty One. Not you seflgamma. I'm talking to you, Neo. Got a solution there ole buddy?

LOL


ROFL when I first read that I thought "WHAT???"
then I realized you were talking to Neo not me! ROFL..

I think last time this happened the flip of the page helped..

yes I am at work and on Internet Explorer..

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NAM 54 hours
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8194
12z Euro ensembles still like the idea that 95L basically comes straight north and then encounters the front in a few days.

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We are in south fla and though it looks likes all those clouds over us we havent gotten a drop of rain.

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Levi, when you said "hugging the coast", you really weren't kidding...It is literally right on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF ALL REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD
AND GENERALLY SHOW THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BROAD LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LIFTING NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIP
SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. CAA...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COOLEST NIGHT BEING THURSDAY
NIGHT IN FRIDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S ACROSS GLADES COUNTY TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUING.


It looks like lots of rain for St. Gustav.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
NAM has been consistent in bringing this energy towards Florida, ignoring what other models are showing

that being said what is the thinking on 95L?


No matter what the track is, Florida is going to get a lot of rain, so it won't really matter. Development is hanging on whether enough low pressure can stay over water. Early models are focused westward across the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche. 12z ECMWF operational is slightly farther west as well. I still think the current main low will stay over the Yucatan as opposed to west of it, while we might have to watch for secondary development to the east over the water. It has a lot of time to try to become a TD, but probably not enough time to become anything significantly strong even if it does develop.
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NAM 39 hours
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8194
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF ALL REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD
AND GENERALLY SHOW THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BROAD LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LIFTING NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIP
SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. CAA...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COOLEST NIGHT BEING THURSDAY
NIGHT IN FRIDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S ACROSS GLADES COUNTY TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
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Quoting Levi32:


Multiply inches of mercury by 33.864 to get millibars.

Also check these out
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No problem.

Here is nice website for everybody.

Link

lol...
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NAM has been consistent in bringing this energy towards Florida, ignoring what other models are showing

that being said what is the thinking on 95L?
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18z Nam at 24 hours.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8194
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Thank You for adding that, I tried to google a pressure converter, but had no clue.

No problem.

Here is nice website for everybody.

Link
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Quoting interstatelover7165:
Thank You for adding that, I tried to google a pressure converter, but had no clue.
Link
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Quoting interstatelover7165:
Thank You for adding that, I tried to google a pressure converter, but had no clue.


Multiply inches of mercury by 33.864 to get millibars.

Also check these out
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Well, it was a nice attempt at becoming one of the latest forming Cape Verde storms ever, but sadly...It did not make it. We should see ~0% at the 8PM Tropical Weather Outlook.

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Circulation center sitting on the coast near Belize.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8194
Quoting stormpetrol:


I still think these observations show a better defined circulation at around 15-16N/80-82W, even though the pressure is not as low.jmo.

Link

However there is also another broad circulation where the NHC has the Invest tagged
gee...I know what jmo stands for, but I have never heard of a file extension called .jmo.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The pressure at buoy 42056 is 29.71 inHg and falling rapidly.

Note: 29.71 inHg = 1006.1 mbar

Thank You for adding that, I tried to google a pressure converter, but had no clue.
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.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
Raining cats and dogs most of day here in upper Florida Keys.....
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The pressure at buoy 42056 is 29.71 inHg and falling rapidly.

Note: 29.71 inHg = 1006.1 mbar.

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Conditions at 42056 as of
(1:50 pm CDT)
1850 GMT on 10/15/2011:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 6.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 107 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.72 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.09 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.9 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.6 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.4 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 84.7 °F
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shear has decreased significantly in the last 24 hours
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
Quoting DDR:
Major Flood event taking place in North Trinidad.


Sounds like a big deal so keep us informed about what is going on over there.
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Sorry it fixed itself when it went to new page.
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154. DDR
Major Flood event taking place in North Trinidad.
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Something weird happened at post 133. Right side of blog cut off and everything looks like it's attached to that post. Am I the only one? Any suggestions?
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
147. All's good here. Light to moderate rain all day. 15 to 20MPH.

Looks like it'll be going downhill soon here. Lower Keys.


A longer loop with a couple of hiccups.

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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:




Dang, they reset our rainfall totals. For some reason NWS Key West only resets every couple of weeks. I wish they would have waited for this storm to pass.

gee that looks like a strong line of storms, stay safe down there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
150. DDR
Pottery
about 1.6 inches and starting to rain again.round 2 has begun...flash floods in Tunapuna
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147. All's good here. Light to moderate rain all day. 15 to 20MPH.

Looks like it'll be going downhill soon here. Lower Keys.
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146.


How are you holding up?
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421




Dang, they reset our rainfall totals. For some reason NWS Key West only resets every couple of weeks. I wish they would have waited for this storm to pass.

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Quoting seflagamma:
Post 133 did that "quote thing again" and now everything is since is showing up in his quote.

how did this get fixed last time it happened???

I don't see a problem with that post...Are you using Internet Explorer?
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Quoting seflagamma:
Post 133 did that "quote thing again" and now everything is since is showing up in his quote.

how did this get fixed last time it happened???



Its working fine.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting BenBIogger:


You must of change the "Sort" option. Its right next to "filter"


Yeah it's been like that for a couple days couldn't figure out what happened. I'd get on the blog and the same post would be at the end of the page for hours. Was thinking it was really dead in here lol.
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Quoting charlottefl:
Did the blog change to where the most recent page is now the first instead of the last?


You must of change the "Sort" option. Its right next to "filter"
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Post 133 did that "quote thing again" and now everything is since is showing up in his quote.

how did this get fixed last time it happened???
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Quoting Neapolitan:

At the top of the "Reader Comments" section, there are links to reverse the sort order; you may have hit it by mistake.


Thank you so very much. Oh my gosh I thought I was looking my mind. :)
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Quoting charlottefl:
Did the blog change to where the most recent page is now the first instead of the last?

At the top of the "Reader Comments" section, there are links to reverse the sort order; you may have hit it by mistake.
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Did the blog change to where the most recent page is now the first instead of the last? And the most recent posts are at the top now?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.