Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

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In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.

The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.

Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

Jeff Masters

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HI every one its been some time since i was on . I got laid of at my job and don't have internet at home . But any way invest 95 is bringing torrential rains we got 7 inches in one hr yesterday and it keeps comming so were expeting some major flooding before this system is over.
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Quoting FLWaterFront:


Yes, it has been excessively rainy in this area during the past several months.

I live in Western Pasco county, just to the north of Pinellas, and it has been just as you have described.

But as usual, the "official" reporting station at Tampa International Airport is either the driest or one of the driest locations around. I swear that spot where the rain gauge is located for the NWS station at TIA must be in a rain shadow of some sort. It almost always has the lowest measured totals for rainfall during widespread area rain events. Only occasionally when a localized thunderstorm happens to take place right there at the airport do they measure more than the average rainfall total at the airport.


Ive noticed that too about Tampa International Airport. I think it is in a locally drier area. Because I got around to this map from NOAA, I can't remember where I found it, but it estimates my yearly rain average is 53 inches, but Tampa International is something like only 42. Actually, many of Floridas rain gauges are placed in locally drier areas it seems. I think many years ago people did a study to see where locally drier spots are and placed them there to make Florida seem more attractive for chamber of commerce. Of course, its not like 42 inches is dry by any means. But some locations in Florida consistently get a lot more than that. I usually get above 50 inches every year, accept last year which was very dry for me.


I'm just making up an educated guess if you want to call it that, some sort of explanation, I could easily be completely wrong though, chances are its just by chance.
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GFS at 63 hours, low pressure in the GOM.
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.....
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
18Z, GFS at 54 hours, heavy rain over Florida.
do any of the models still develop 95L into a TD or TS as it approaches South Florida
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18Z, GFS at 54 hours, heavy rain over Florida.
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Quoting Speeky:
Who thinks 95L may form into a tropical storm
i think so too it just needs to move away from the coast of the yucatan peninsula
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:

The way those wind barbs are pointing at... Looks suspicious. And why the hurricane simbol? XD
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look like we have 2 circulation centers one right on the coast of the yucatan and another one developing east of cabo gracias a dios , honduras
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Quoting seflagamma:


Glad this summer's rain storms were good for your area. Your area had a lot of droughts over the past 5 yrs so all the rain was really needed.



Yeah definitely, I got sick of seeing below normal rain, I thought this year was going to be more of the same, but we had been pounded here. The good news is even now heading into a very dry period historically, Oct-Nov, we are seeing wet periods despite the rain season being over, which is very good for the remaining areas of drought. The East Coast pretty much put an end to its drought.

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


lol dont even know what to say about that
I guess they are expecting it to develop.
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Who thinks 95L may form into a tropical storm
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225. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Just to put that into perspective, you got 13 FEET of rain....

Sounds better that way!

Heavy stuff, man.

Yes it does!
Now up to 8 inches,moderate rain falling.
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Well I hope I have a snowey winter.This weather pattern reminds me of the type of late summer/fall weather we had before some of our coldest winters.It's been a wet fall so far and the pattern suggest that it isn't stopping anytime soon(My yard feels just like a sponge that won't dry out).
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Quoting DDR:
There have been five 3 inch rainfall events at my place this season,im guessing i've got about 90 inches so far this season,havent totalled my recorded rainfall as yet,but last year i had 157 inches from May 14th-Dec 31st


Are you freaking serious? I guess that's why they call it the tropics....

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7385
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah, we got absolutely swamped this summer, probably wettest rain season at my place in 3 or 4 years! Last year we were the opposite we only had 39 inches the whole year, we are sitting soggy at over 68 for the year, and still time to make that total hit 70. The year "normal" is about 53 around this area.

I definitely got what I wanted and then some, thankfully we had very little severe weather though. Lots of strong storm events with gusty 40 to 50 mph and lots of lightning type of storms, but I think we only experienced a a few severe cells. Which is good, nothing really destructive, just good old exciting storms and lots of beneficial rain.




We didn't get nearly as much out of the recent rain event though, we had only 1.14 out of it, but that was expected, and forecasted very well. The East Coast needed it way more then us though, so it all worked out.


Glad this summer's rain storms were good for your area. Your area had a lot of droughts over the past 5 yrs so all the rain was really needed.

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Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah, we got absolutely swamped this summer, probably wettest rain season at my place in 3 or 4 years! Last year we were the opposite we only had 39 inches the whole year, we are sitting soggy at over 68 for the year, and still time to make that total hit 70. The year "normal" is about 53 around this area.

I definitely got what I wanted and then some, thankfully we had very little severe weather though. Lots of strong storm events with gusty 40 to 50 mph and lots of lightning type of storms, but I think we only experienced a a few severe cells. Which is good, nothing really destructive, just good old exciting storms and lots of beneficial rain.




We didn't get nearly as much out of the recent rain event though, we had only 1.14 out of it, but that was expected, and forecasted very well. The East Coast needed it way more then us though, so it all worked out.


Yes, it has been excessively rainy in this area during the past several months.

I live in Western Pasco county, just to the north of Pinellas, and it has been just as you have described.

But as usual, the "official" reporting station at Tampa International Airport is either the driest or one of the driest locations around. I swear that spot where the rain gauge is located for the NWS station at TIA must be in a rain shadow of some sort. It almost always has the lowest measured totals for rainfall during widespread area rain events. Only occasionally when a localized thunderstorm happens to take place right there at the airport do they measure more than the average rainfall total at the airport.
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Quoting DDR:

Interesting...
pottery had one 5inch event a couple months ago
this is largest single rainfall event since last years 9 inches in about 8 hours in May.
Rain light at the moment but im up to over 7 inches in 2 3/4 hours now.


That's very impressive!

Yeah, one of the craziest rain events Ive seen ever living here was several years back in February, which isn't the driest time of year but its not the typically super wet either, we got 12 inches in 4 hours, and one place to my south in Pinellas Park got 15 in 3.5 hours, it was just absolutely whiteout, and I'm talking without wind, continuously for that 3 to 4 hour period. I'm not sure if anyone remembers this but it was crazy to say the last. Lighting knocked some transmission lines down causing a smoldering fire close to me that was kept pretty small thanks to the extreme rain.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


lol dont even know what to say about that
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Quoting seflagamma:
it is fixed finally..... the flip of the page did it!



Anyway, back for a second... seems a lot of you are getting some really good rain.

Jed, LOL last year you were so sad because you were not getting those daily Florida rains you love so much.
Glad to see this year you are.. Your area has looked good on the drought map and moisture map all year!




Yeah, we got absolutely swamped this summer, probably wettest rain season at my place in 3 or 4 years! Last year we were the opposite we only had 39 inches the whole year, we are sitting soggy at over 68 for the year, and still time to make that total hit 70. The year "normal" is about 53 around this area.

I definitely got what I wanted and then some, thankfully we had very little severe weather though. Lots of strong storm events with gusty 40 to 50 mph and lots of lightning type of storms, but I think we only experienced a a few severe cells. Which is good, nothing really destructive, just good old exciting storms and lots of beneficial rain.




We didn't get nearly as much out of the recent rain event though, we had only 1.14 out of it, but that was expected, and forecasted very well. The East Coast needed it way more then us though, so it all worked out.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7385
Quoting DDR:
There have been five 3 inch rainfall events at my place this season,im guessing i've got about 90 inches so far this season,havent totalled my recorded rainfall as yet,but last year i had 157 inches from May 14th-Dec 31st

Just to put that into perspective, you got 13 FEET of rain....

Sounds better that way!

Heavy stuff, man.
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Quoting DDR:
Round 3 has begun,should bring me up to 9 or 10 inches,wow!

Heavy here again, too!
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Quoting flsky:
Where in Central Florida?



Pinellas County, I don't point out my exact location on line for safety reasons :)
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Quoting SLU:
DDR or Pottery still here? Whats the latest on the flooding because the rain is coming down REAL HARD in Trinidad today.

Just crossed 5" since noon.
I am in Central Trinidad, and the heaviest stuff is falling just North of me on DDR.

Expect to hear of flooding in the Valley's of the Northern Range from this.

Came out of nowhere, and is still falling hard.....
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Any thoughts on the area SSW of Jamaica? Looks like something might be trying to spin up.
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it is fixed finally..... the flip of the page did it!



Anyway, back for a second... seems a lot of you are getting some really good rain.

Jed, LOL last year you were so sad because you were not getting those daily Florida rains you love so much.
Glad to see this year you are.. Your area has looked good on the drought map and moisture map all year!


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211. DDR
Quoting SLU:
198. DDR 9:00 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

... and with La Nina back in full force, it's gonna be a rainy end to the year.

its almost a sure thing.
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210. DDR
Round 3 has begun,should bring me up to 9 or 10 inches,wow!
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209. DDR
There have been five 3 inch rainfall events at my place this season,im guessing i've got about 90 inches so far this season,havent totalled my recorded rainfall as yet,but last year i had 157 inches from May 14th-Dec 31st
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208. DDR
Quoting Jedkins01:


Here at my place in Central Florida, we have had massive quantities of rain since late June, over 50 inches.

We have had many big rain events during this period, but we had one where 5.93 inches fell here in one hour, and 9.2 for the whole day. We have many other days with similar extreme down pours here, its just doesn't normally rain that hard for that long to accumulate that much in an hour.

Extreme rainfall like that normally lasts for 10 minutes, with just heavy down pours after.

Interesting...
pottery had one 5inch event a couple months ago
this is largest single rainfall event since last years 9 inches in about 8 hours in May.
Rain light at the moment but im up to over 7 inches in 2 3/4 hours now.
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207. flsky
Where in Central Florida?

Quoting Jedkins01:


Here at my place in Central Florida, we have had massive quantities of rain since late June, over 50 inches.

We have had many big rain events during this period, but we had one where 5.93 inches fell here in one hour, and 9.2 for the whole day. We have many other days with similar extreme down pours here, its just doesn't normally rain that hard for that long to accumulate that much in an hour.

Extreme rainfall like that normally lasts for 10 minutes, with just heavy down pours after.
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Quoting DDR:

Hehe,thats what ppl in the rural south of the island have to deal with every time it rains heavy.Good thing it isnt falling there.


Here at my place in Central Florida, we have had massive quantities of rain since late June, over 50 inches.

We have had many big rain events during this period, but we had one where 5.93 inches fell here in one hour, and 9.2 for the whole day. We have many other days with similar extreme down pours here, its just doesn't normally rain that hard for that long to accumulate that much in an hour.

Extreme rainfall like that normally lasts for 10 minutes, with just heavy down pours after.
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Quoting Skyepony:
95L kinda looking spooky..

Spooky?

What gives you that idea?
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Quoting Skyepony:
95L kinda looking spooky..


Spooky? What makes you say that?
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I'm sorry, but you really have the check your definition of "rain". If you have to walk in it with a diving tank to breath... its not "rain"


In the tropics heavy down pours is rain, torrential rain is heavy rain, and deluge is a torrential downpour.
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201. SLU
198. DDR 9:00 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

... and with La Nina back in full force, it's gonna be a rainy end to the year.
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200. Skyepony (Mod)
95L kinda looking spooky..
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199. DDR
Quoting Orcasystems:


I'm sorry, but you really have the check your definition of "rain". If you have to walk in it with a diving tank to breath... its not "rain"

Hehe,thats what ppl in the rural south of the island have to deal with every time it rains heavy.Good thing it isnt falling there.
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198. DDR
Quoting SLU:
191. DDR 8:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

Also there's a tropical wave due by tomorrow ...

I'm lost for words,this is just incredible.
Upward mjo to blame
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197. SLU
Piarco, Trinidad And Tobago

4:04 PM - 77.0°F - NNW 3.5 mph - Heavy Rain
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196. SLU
191. DDR 8:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

Also there's a tropical wave due by tomorrow ...
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195. SLU
194. Orcasystems 8:48 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

That's why they call it TORRENTIAL rain.
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Quoting DDR:
Reporting from Trinidad just over 5 inches of rain in just under 2 hours,still falling heavy reports of major flooding.


I'm sorry, but you really have the check your definition of "rain". If you have to walk in it with a diving tank to breath... its not "rain"
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193. SLU
{191. DDR 8:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2011}

This is like a solid tropical storm with no wind.
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NAM 81 hours and the fronts coming down to meet up with the moisture.
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191. DDR
I can't believe the met office hasn't issued a bulletin,anyway most ppl are probably stuck in traffic or home.up to 6 inches now
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I see the NAM has come to reality bringing very weak low pressure with rain to FL.
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189. DDR
Quoting SLU:
{185. DDR 8:35 PM GMT on October 15, 2011}

Yes i'm still here. Haven't seen this much rain in Trinidad since last season. There will definitely be severe flooding given the low lying nature of the island.

Yes that is correct,lucky i live on the hills.The last time this happened was May 2010
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NAM at 72 hours.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
NAM at 66 hours. Interesting how the energy has split with a low heading towards Fl. and another low still back in the Bay of Campeche.


Can you say Mitch? Well, without the Cat 5 hurricane of course. Same type of scenario though.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.