Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

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In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.

The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.

Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
is it just me or does anyone else think that the COC near the Nic/Hon boarder will become our TD/TS or/H and the COC near Belize/Yuc will just die over land in Yuc or get absorbed


Been preachin that from the pulpit since morning,never really had an altar call, but 2-3 sames to be picking up the sermon! :)
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Quoting Levi32:
1022mb high over Arkansas is sliding east towards Georgia. I have talked before about how the increased pressure gradient over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida can help spin NW Caribbean systems up by throwing air at them. The question is whether 48 hours of increased pressures over the south will be enough to help 95L become a tropical depression. It has the Yucatan to work around as well.

Levi, do you see any type of circulation just east of the Honduras/Nicaragua border or is it just my(and a few others) eyes ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
I think the Tampa airport is in a "DRY" slot. I live just a few miles north, and I will watch my pool go up 3-4" and the airport says 1"/
LOL. Sometimes the pws just up the road from me shows 0" of rain and I am watching it pouring for hours.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
1022mb high over Arkansas is sliding east towards Georgia. I have talked before about how the increased pressure gradient over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida can help spin NW Caribbean systems up by throwing air at them. The question is whether 48 hours of increased pressures over the south will be enough to help 95L become a tropical depression. It has the Yucatan to work around as well.

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Quoting Jedkins01:


Tampa is a dry slot in Central Florida, I knew it!
I think the Tampa airport is in a "DRY" slot. I live just a few miles north, and I will watch my pool go up 3-4" and the airport says 1"/
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...

That's the post of the day right there!
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.......Do I get a plus now?.Lol.It seems thats the new trend.You put a few dots and people plus it.
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is it just me or does anyone else think that the COC near the Nic/Hon boarder will become our TD/TS or/H and the COC near Belize/Yuc will just die over land in Yuc or get absorbed
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...


lol
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...
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277. DDR
pottery watch out,your turn!
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Quoting foggymyst:
Well there we go.. wsvn said the low will not be affecting So. Fla.
Your meteorologist suck!!!!!.Mines is the best both Sue Palka,Gary and Tony Perkins are the best ones we have on Fox5News.On News 4 well...they are kinda boring.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Tell them to look outside at the clouds.
See post 256 and 257. The huge broad circulation is already affecting the weather in extreme S. Florida. This will increase and spread northward.

Florida may not be directly impacted by a named system, but Florida will be affected by the moisture associated with this broad circulation.

Heavy rains will begin to move into the state in the next couple days.


The cold front sliding south will at least combined with very high moisture, and a strong front with high tropical moisture means very heavy storms regardless if any low moves north or not.
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circulation center looks to be tighting up all we need is convection to explode over the center and move away from the coastline
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Lots of heavy rain building just South of Florida. Once that starts moving north, Florida is in for some big time rains.


Rainfall could approach that of the last big rain maker, however its not predicted to be quite as high. But its still a few days out so that could change, and the potential for it does exist. This time though, the west of Florida definitely won't be spared.

Its really hard to say how much will fall, but the potential exists for very heavy rain totals. Moisture levels are expected to reach to what we see in August rain events, so don't be fooled just because its October.
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Quoting DDR:

moderate to heavy rain moving inland right now,in north eastern Trinidad,mainly north of you pottery.


Pottery,here is the Trinidad & Tobago radar.

Link
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
South Florida annual rainfall map.


Tampa is a dry slot in Central Florida, I knew it!
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270. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Still raining here. But not too hard last 45 mins.
Just checked my rainfall for today (it started at noon) and it is 3.6".
Less than I thought it would be.

What is the Radar showing for tonight?

moderate to heavy rain moving inland right now,in north eastern Trinidad,to your east a strong cell fast approaching.
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Quoting foggymyst:
Well there we go.. wsvn said the low will not be affecting So. Fla.


Tell them to look outside at the clouds.
See post 256 and 257. The huge broad circulation is already affecting the weather in extreme S. Florida. This will increase and spread northward.

Florida may not be directly impacted by a named system, but Florida will be affected by the moisture associated with this broad circulation.

Heavy rains will begin to move into the state in the next couple days.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:





pressures around Belize to Northern Nicaragua lower than elsewhere.





Where those west winds are would suggest a circulation around 15-16N/80-82W, to my thinking this might just end up being the surviving circulation.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I have been looking at that all afternoon and definitely looks like a circulation center just east of the Nicaragua/Honduras border.


I have been saying this from this morning.
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Quoting foggymyst:
Well there we go.. wsvn said the low will not be affecting So. Fla.


tell that to all the rain we are going to get from the outter moisture from that system.

I have 50-60% chances of rain for the next 3 days here in my SE Fla area Broward County,.
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Quoting DDR:
Finally the rain has stopped,but more on the way.so far i've got 8.2 inches in 3hrs 50 mins.

Still raining here. But not too hard last 45 mins.
Just checked my rainfall for today (it started at noon) and it is 3.6".
Less than I thought it would be.

What is the Radar showing for tonight?
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Well there we go.. wsvn said the low will not be affecting So. Fla.
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does it look like we may get a orange circle at 8pm TWO
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I know.Until the storm system can get away from land then I think it will really start to get it's act together.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I'm lost.
It's like playing where's Woldo?.
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pressures around Belize to Northern Nicaragua lower than elsewhere.



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259. DDR
Finally the rain has stopped,but more on the way.so far i've got 8.2 inches in 3hrs 50 mins.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
"something".Is trying to get going.But this aint no Wilma folks that's for sure.I wouldn't be surprised if a storm comes out of it.


I tried to quote, but hit the wrong button.

Interaction with land is preventing the system from getting its act together.
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Lots of heavy rain building just South of Florida. Once that starts moving north, Florida is in for some big time rains.
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I'm lost.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
"something".Is trying to get going.But this aint no Wilma folks that's for sure.I wouldn't be surprised if a storm comes out of it.
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254. DDR
Quoting Jedkins01:


Be glad you live on an island! I live pretty close to the coast, so rainfall flooding is limited to short term street Flooding and overflowing drain ditches which lowers only several hours after the rain causes it to drain into the ocean.

I can't imagine what that type of rain would do in a land locked area without good water absorbent soil.

I remember being in Michigan and watching flash flooding occurring from what was just an ordinary heavy storm in Florida, it seemed strange to me but they called it "a serious torrential rain event". Which for them it was, the flooding obviously showed it was. But it shows you rainfall flooding is more than just about man-made drainage. Tropical soils can typically absorb way more rainfall then temperate soils. which is why heavy rain from tropical moisture can be very destructive in parts of the northern U.S. when higher moisture is pulled north during the warmer months.

Yes,especially if your drainage network is really old and needs work,like 60 years old in most parts in T&T.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The way those wind barbs are pointing at... Looks suspicious. And why the hurricane simbol? XD
Your guess is as good as mine.
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South Florida annual rainfall map.
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250. Skyepony (Mod)
Congrats to Hurricanes101 for finding the Demon in the sat pic:)
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah almost the entire northeast has been practically slaughtered by heavy rain!
I hope it's not a sign of things to come for the winter.Yeah I want a snowey winter but not anything crazy.I don't think my area will see a winter like 09-10 for the next 600-1000 years.It's very rare.
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Cancun Radar
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Quoting DDR:

Thats some craziness like whats going on here,most places in the North in Trinidad are flooded out right now.


Be glad you live on an island! I live pretty close to the coast, so rainfall flooding is limited to short term street Flooding and overflowing drain ditches which lowers only several hours after the rain causes it to drain into the ocean.

I can't imagine what that type of rain would do in a land locked area without good water absorbent soil.

I remember being in Michigan and watching flash flooding occurring from what was just an ordinary heavy storm in Florida, it seemed strange to me but they called it "a serious torrential rain event". Which for them it was, the flooding obviously showed it was. But it shows you rainfall flooding is more than just about man-made drainage. Tropical soils can typically absorb way more rainfall then temperate soils. which is why heavy rain from tropical moisture can be very destructive in parts of the northern U.S. when higher moisture is pulled north during the warmer months.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
look like we have 2 circulation centers one right on the coast of the yucatan and another one developing east of cabo gracias a dios , honduras
I have been looking at that all afternoon and definitely looks like a circulation center just east of the Nicaragua/Honduras border.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
You can say that again.We were starting to be in a drought here in D.C back in july.But that has long been erased and is nothing more than a distant memory.


Yeah almost the entire northeast has been practically slaughtered by heavy rain!
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Quoting DDR:

Lol yes,last year probably had about 10 such events,i got 37 inches in August alone last year thanks to la nina.


That is absurd! I think we had 30 inches in August a while back here, but that was a record, I haven't seen anything like it since, I did hit over 17 last month, 21 in August, and 14 in July.

But 37? That's crazy!
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242. DDR
Quoting Jedkins01:


Ive noticed that too about Tampa International Airport. I think it is in a locally drier area. Because I got around to this map from NOAA, I can't remember where I found it, but it estimates my yearly rain average is 53 inches, but Tampa International is something like only 42. Actually, many of Floridas rain gauges are placed in locally drier areas it seems. I think many years ago people did a study to see where locally drier spots are and placed them there to make Florida seem more attractive for chamber of commerce. Of course, its not like 42 inches is dry by any means. But some locations in Florida consistently get a lot more than that. I usually get above 50 inches every year, accept last year which was very dry for me.


I'm just making up an educated guess if you want to call it that, some sort of explanation, I could easily be completely wrong though, chances are its just by chance.

Thats some craziness like whats going on here,most places in the North in Trinidad are flooded out right now.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah definitely, I got sick of seeing below normal rain, I thought this year was going to be more of the same, but we had been pounded here. The good news is even now heading into a very dry period historically, Oct-Nov, we are seeing wet periods despite the rain season being over, which is very good for the remaining areas of drought. The East Coast pretty much put an end to its drought.

You can say that again.We were starting to be in a drought here in D.C back in july.But that has long been erased and is nothing more than a distant memory.
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GFS at 72 hours. Front dropping down to eventually join up with the moisture.
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238. DDR
Quoting Jedkins01:


Are you freaking serious? I guess that's why they call it the tropics....


Lol yes,last year probably had about 10 such events,i got 37 inches in August alone last year thanks to la nina.
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HI every one its been some time since i was on . I got laid of at my job and don't have internet at home . But any way invest 95 is bringing torrential rains we got 7 inches in one hr yesterday and it keeps comming so were expeting some major flooding before this system is over.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.