Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

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In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.

The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.

Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

Jeff Masters

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737. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh Windsat 95L
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just making sure you know...That is the 8AM TWO.
Link


I don't know how to post a loop but speed up the shortwave loop and looks like a coc around 20N and 85W.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, its headed generally towards the northwest right now, so it will need to turn north, then northeast...All this should occur over the next three days. We should see whatever it is make landfall in Florida in four days or so, IMO.


I GOTTA KNOW,AM I ON THAT LIST?
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hmm...


hmm...Invest 95L


hmm...


hmm...Central Atlantic Invest


Anybody think the tropics aren't active, say I :-P...also just as I thought the blog grew exponentially from yesterday :)
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New Blog
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We have had a few systems this year where the COC relocated. I think Irene was one of them while it was in the Carribean. Most of these systems had the relocation shift further North. It looks like a COC relocation with this one as well.

Expect the tropical cyclone probabity to make another jump at the 2:00 PM update.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, I didn't see an 11am out yet? Maybe we'll have to wait until 2 pm?


only thing that required an 11:00 update is Irwin
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


We should know a lot more tomorrow as to what to expect. I thought 93L would drench us last weekend, but turned out to be on and off showers.


That was a disappointment. We need the rain. Hope it's not too bad.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just making sure you know...That is the 8AM TWO.


Yeah, I didn't see an 11am out yet? Maybe we'll have to wait until 2 pm?
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6150
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Just making sure you know...That is the 8AM TWO.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31506
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6150
Quoting WoodyFL:


Hey, Tropical Anaylyst. I guess you and I were right in our thinking yesterday. You made me feel real good when you agreed with me about 95L moving back east when all the models were saying west. I finally got one right. LOL Thanks for answering me on the blog, no one does.
Levi also said it could form a secondary coc east of the one on the Yucatan.
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Rainfall totals since yesterday morning.

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does there is real pontential that the invest in the central atlantic will develop?
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*Click image to enlarge (image can further be enlarged in Link Window by clicking anywhere on it)
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Link
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rain bands starting to form over the Se florida coast , reports from the florida keys that they have received between 3-5 inches of rain since friday
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:

GFS did well with the previous low that hit the east coast of Fl.


The GFS had 93L heading up to SC.
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12z, GFS at 69 hours. Low has been absorbed into the frontal boundry.
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Joe Bastardi has been saying for the last 3 days, and is still saying, that this system will do exactly what the ensemble models are showing now.

Storm moves up into the Gulf and then moves across Florida.

Beachman42
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Quoting WoodyFL:


Yes, only if it is St. Gustav 1985 reserve. Geoff, I take it you are in West Palm Beach. Guess you will get some rain.


We should know a lot more tomorrow as to what to expect. I thought 93L would drench us last weekend, but turned out to be on and off showers.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10992
95L COC appears to be reforming between tolum and cancun very near the cozumel area
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
i would really disregard the GFS model and stick to the Nam which has been very consistent and 95L looks to be reforming near the cancun area


Im not good with animated maps but I think you might be right. I don't have those low vorticity maps, but it looks like a new low is forming to the east of where it was.

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Visible satellite imagery shows the center of invest 95L very near the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. If it does cross land, it will be for a very brief period of time, and organization would not be hampered significantly, if at all.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31506
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i would really disregard the GFS model and stick to the Nam which has been very consistent and 95L looks to be reforming near the cancun area

GFS did well with the previous low that hit the east coast of Fl.
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12z, GFS at 60 hours. Whatever does form is moving inland.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Would you like some cheese with your whine? :)


Yes, only if it is St. Gustav 1985 reserve. Geoff, I take it you are in West Palm Beach. Guess you will get some rain.
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


I now have 39 on my ignore list. Bye bye Dave. Sigh...

Teddy and Stormwatcher, thanks so much for your informative additions to this blog.

Back to weather, 95L is sure looking good right now. Any idea on timing as to when she will head towards FL?
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i would really disregard the GFS model and stick to the Nam which has been very consistent and 95L looks to be reforming near the cancun area
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12Z, GFS at 54 hours.
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Re: 696. Think altitude/elevation.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Would you like some cheese with your whine?

?
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Quoting WoodyFL:


Hey, Tropical Anaylyst. I guess you and I were right in our thinking yesterday. You made me feel real good when you agreed with me about 95L moving back east when all the models were saying west. I finally got one right. LOL Thanks for answering me on the blog, no one does.


Would you like some cheese with your whine? :)
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10992
Quoting WoodyFL:


Hey, Tropical Anaylyst. I guess you and I were right in our thinking yesterday. You made me feel real good when you agreed with me about 95L moving back east when all the models were saying west. I finally got one right. LOL Thanks for answering me on the blog, no one does.

No problem.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31506
Look'in good 95L.Look'in good!.To bad it's not over the middle of the ocean.
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12z, GFS at 45 hours, low on the move heading towards Fl.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6150
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Inland where? Its circulation has already been inland, and is now offshore.


Hey, Tropical Anaylyst. I guess you and I were right in our thinking yesterday. You made me feel real good when you agreed with me about 95L moving back east when all the models were saying west. I finally got one right. LOL Thanks for answering me on the blog, no one does.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


849 in Mexico?!
where did you get that map from
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Quoting daveron:



you are lucky if you get a weak tropical depression out of this...people in sou fla will be wearing sweaters by mid week so no need to worry about any tropical system...
Really would like to know why i'll be wearing a sweater when high temp here in south west florida are gonna be in the mid and upper 70 back up your statements with some kind of fact or perhaps just another tool.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Inland where? Its circulation has already been inland, and is now offshore.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Inland where? Its circulation has already been inland, and is now offshore.
I dont know about if its already been inland and now off shore, but the models show it going over some part of the Yucatan. I dont think it will develope before then. Afterwords possibly but not before then IMO.
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12z, GFS at 39 hours.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Do any of the models forecast 95L to develop into anything but a big mass of convection?

The NAM.

Did it nail 95Ll...? We shall see...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31506
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Do any of the models forecast 95L to develop into anything but a big mass of convection?


I know the NAM was pretty consistant for a couple days developing a Tropical System.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6150
hello there for the first time in La Ceiba since friday
I can see the sun thanks to the MJO or the remains of td 12 it hasn´t stop the rain until now
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
tropical does it look to you like the coc is trying to reform to the NE tip near cancun

Yes.
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Quoting daveron:



you are lucky if you get a weak tropical depression out of this...people in sou fla will be wearing sweaters by mid week so no need to worry about any tropical system...


God has spoken

*Claps his hands*

Okay move along, nothing to see here!! Thank god I was not going to pay attention to this; WHEW!!!

*sarcasm off*
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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