Wilma: freak of nature

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:59 AM GMT on October 19, 2005

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There has never been a hurricane like Wilma before. With an unbelievable round of intensification that saw the pressure drop 87 mb in just 12 hours, Wilma smashed the all-time record for lowest pressure in an Atlantic hurricane this morning. The 4 am hurricane hunter report put the pressure at 882 mb, easily besting the previous record of 888 mb set in Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. And since no hurricane hunter airplane has been in the eye since then, Wilma may be even stronger now. The eye diameter of Wilma during this round of intense shrunk as low as 2 nautical miles, which may be the smallest eye diameter ever measured in a tropical cyclone. The only eye that small I could find in the records was a 3 nm the Category 4 Typhoon Jeliwat achieved in 2000. It's amazing the hurricane hunters were even able to penetrate the eye--it's really tough to hit a 2 mile wide eye when you're flying crabbed over at a 30 degree yaw angle fighting horizontal flight level winds of 185 mph and severe turbulence. This is an incredibly compact, amazingly intense hurricane, the likes of which has never been seen in the Atlantic. The Hurricane Season of 2005 keeps topping itself with new firsts, and now boasts three of the five most intense hurricanes of all time--Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.

Where will Wilma go?
There is a lot of uncertainty about this, as usual. After last night's flight by the NOAA jet, the computer models have come into better agreement, forecasting a track northwest through the Yucatan Channel, and then northeast across southern Florida. Cuba will probably end up getting the worst of Wilma, particularly the western tip of Cuba, which could see a direct hit.

After Cuba comes Florida. The models are converging on a landfall over the sparsely populated Everglades, but Wilma could hit as far north as Sarasota or pass south of the Keys. In any case, I expect the evaction order for non-residents in the Keys will be given today, and the Keys and residents of southwest Florida from Naples southward are at greatest risk from Wilma. Assuming Wilma does hit the Everglades as expected, the Gold Coast of Florida from Miami to West Palm Beach are in for a severe pounding after Wilma crosses south Florida.

How strong will Wilma be?
Hurricanes do not maintain Category 5 strength very long, and Wilma is unlikely to be at that strength when it clears the Yucatan Channel and turns northeast towards Florida. Combine with that the possible effects of weakening due to interaction or a landfall on the western tip of Cuba or the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and Wilma is likely to be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane as it starts bearing down on southwest Florida. When Wilma does make this turn, the winds that will be turning her will also be creating some significant wind shear, which will weaken the storm. Wilma will be moving fairly quickly, though, so the shear won't have a lot of time to weaken her. I'm guessing this weakening will be in the order of 10 - 20 mph.

The end result of all these factors will cause Wilma to hit southwest Florida in the Everglades as a Category 3 or weak Category 4 hurricane with winds in the 120 mph - 135 mph range. The Everglades are low and swampy, and passage over the this area does not weaken a hurricane as much as landfall further north over the Florida Peninsula. In the case of Hurricane Andrew, which passed across the Everglades on a reverse path, the hurricane started its traverse as a Category 5 hurricane with 170 mph winds and a 922 mb central pressure. By the time it emerged in the Gulf of Mexico, Andrew was a Category 3 hurricane with 130 mph winds and a central pressure of 951 mb. Andrew was a very small hurricane, and passage over the Everglades weakened it considerably. In the case of Hurricane Katrina earlier this year, the traverse of south Florida did not
significantly weaken the storm. Katrina started its traverse of south Florida with a central pressure of 981 mb and 75 mph winds, and finished with a central pressure of 985 mb and 75 mph winds. Katrina was a much larger storm than Andrew, and more representative of the size Wilma is likely to have over Florida.

The closest analogue storm I can find in the archives to Wilma is an href=http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at190608.asp>October 1906 hurricane that looks remarkably similar. The 1906 hurricane formed in the western Caribbean, brushed Cuba as it passed through the Yucatan Channel, then crossed extreme southern Florida, passing from the
Everglades to Fort Lauderdale. This hurricane weakened from a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds to a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds as it crossed Florida.

I think we can expect Wilma to behave in a similar fashion to the 1906 hurricane, and lose about 10 mph in its peak winds due to passage over the Everglades. Wilma may lose an additional 5 mph due to the continued action of the expected higher wind shear. This would make Wilma a strong Category 2 or weak Category 3 hurricane over Miami/Fort Lauderdale with peak winds of 105 - 120 mph. A really big question is how far out will the hurricane force winds extend? Wilma is currently a very compact storm with
hurricane force winds extending out only 15 miles from the center. If she maintains this compact structure, damage in Florida will be limited to a very small area. However, with three days remaining over very warm waters, Wilma will doubtless expand its windfield somewhat, so that hurricane force winds will extend out 50 - 80 miles from the center. This will be enough to cause severe damage to the Gold Coast in the $10 - $20 billion range. If Wilma follows the path I expect, this will be the worst hurricane in Miami Beach/Fort Lauderdale area since 1965's Hurricane Betsy.

Keep in mind that the average error in a hurricane track forecasts four days is over 200 miles, and that our skill in making intensity forecasts is low--as witnessed in Wilma's incredible ascent from a Category 1 to Category 5 hurricane in just 12 hours.

What has Wilma done so far?
Wilma has claimed her first victims; up to ten are dead on Haiti in landslides triggered by the hurricane's heavy rains. Mudslides and flooding are also serious problems in the southeastern Cuban provinces of Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba and Granma. Nearly 13 inches (33 cm) of rain was measured at Santiago de Cuba yesterday. The Cuban newspaper Granma is reporting 255 homes damaged or destroyed in that town, and sections of the Sevilla-Guamá-Santiago de Cuba highway impassable due to swollen rivers, while landslides have blocked the Cordovelo-Loma Blanca road. In Jamaica, widespread flooding has cut off several communities and caused millions in damage to roads. All schools are closed on the island through Thursday and hospitals are taking only emergency patients. Rainfall rates as high as two inches per hour were observed in the Blue Mountains of south-central Jamaica yesterday.

I'll have another update this afternoon, there's a lot more to talk about.

Jeff Masters

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294. mouseybabe
7:16 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Well, I tried to read through all the comments, but it's overwhelming. To StormFanatic, Boynton Beach is about 35-40 miles north of Ft Lauderdale. The trouble with waiting to evacuate is that there will be a lot of people trying to get off a peninsula. Remember the traffic jams with Katrina? I do.

If it misses us, fine, but I want to be safe. I can't wait for them tyo change the track forty seven times. As for hiding from wind, where do I hide a mobile home? We each have to decide what's best for us, and after going through two hurricanes last year and losing my mother in between Frances and Jeanne from the stress, I am not staying.
293. buckeyefan1
5:43 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
2:00 should be out soon!!
292. PalmaSolaBay
5:40 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
I have owned a condo in Bradenton since 2002. I learned in Sep. that if a Cat.5 hit our area, the condo would be waterfront peoperty(we are presently 2 blocks from Palma Sola Bay).
291. wanzewurld
4:27 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
I realize the cycles are not new but they're new to this generation. I've been an weather observer for years mainly because I've had to work in it and it's really fascinated me how we've come to better understand the global mechanics of weather in the years since IGY (International Geophysical Year) when I was an elementary school student. That seemed to really kick-start our in-depth understanding of the processes involved and to realize how delicate and fragile our enviorment is.
I'm well aware of more than I can express in this limited venue but was just trying to make the point that if we can limit or undo the changes our climate is headed for it MIGHT be a good thing. Then again, 50 years from now, with more knowledge and better understanding, it might be discovered that Homo Sapiens had little effect on what's happening now.
While not advocating Hitleresque tactics I find myself facing the inevidable conclusion that there are simply more people on the earth than the earth can comfortably support and things like deforestation, fossil fuel comsumption, and creation of long-life artificial chemicals harmful to the enviorment are contributing to a speeding up of the "normal" weather cyclicity.
I've also got a few other radical ideas that probably contribute to our present inclimate weather but I think it best to keep those to myself lest someone come for me with the latest in wrap-around clothing.
I've got an earlier animated satellite photo (GIF) that I'd like to post that showed the early stages of developement of Wilma but I'm not well enough schooled to know how to post it. It's IR photos of the Caribbean with the first frame 13 Oct 2005 15:30 GMT and the last frame 13 Oct 2005 20:00 GMT. It was unusual to me because I don't ever recall seeing a large system split in the center and proceed in completely opposite directions. I feel certain it's just something I've never seen but it was unique enough for me to save the loop (From Intellicast.com).
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 29 Comments: 46
290. CybrTeddy
4:09 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Mandy,
I was speaking of the north shift in the NOGAPS model:
It's in baby blue:
Link
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24682
289. rxse7en
3:16 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
There goes that official track creeping North! Dammit!
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
288. stormydee
3:15 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
going to lunch. will be back.....
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
287. RobbTC
3:04 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH WILMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED A BIT. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 150 KT
PENDING FURTHER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST
ESTIMATE FOR THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS A BLEND OF THE 881 MB
EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND THE 884 MB FROM AN EYE DROP THAT
SPLASHED IN 23 KT WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A DISTINCT OUTER
WIND MAXIMUM AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A FORMATIVE OUTER EYEWALL.
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE
INTENSITY OF WILMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THESE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ONCE WILMA ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS IDEAL AS THEY ARE NOW AND SOME WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A
FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...AS
WILMA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LOW...THE WIND FIELD OF
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND CONSIDERABLY...AND EVEN GLOBAL MODELS
ARE SHOWING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM AT 5 DAYS.

PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN
MOTION OF 300/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND
NOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND.
IN THIS SCENARIO...WILMA BECOMES CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN
FOUR DAYS. THE ECMWF AND IN PARTICULAR THE UKMET...BOTH OLDER
RUNS...DO NOT YET INDICATE THIS. THE FIVE-DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST
POINT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THAN
THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.4N 83.2W 150 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 84.0W 150 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.1N 85.1W 150 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.9W 145 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 86.2W 135 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 77.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 39.0N 69.0W 80 KT
286. RobbTC
3:03 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Florida Keys non-residents have been ordered to leave.
285. CrazyC83
3:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Better safe than sorry...I'd be preparing more than necessary - you don't want to mess with this dinosaur...
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
284. HIEXPRESS
3:01 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
SherryB
http://volusia.org/storm/default.htm
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
283. seflagamma
3:01 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Billsfan, I think I live just a little west of you, we got a lot of rain last night also. probably a couple of inches.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 304 Comments: 40974
282. singerislandmom
2:56 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
My shutters are going up shortly. This is too scarey!
281. CrazyC83
2:55 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Now let's just pray that none of the Greek fraternities or sororities will beat Wilma...
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
280. DudeTheMath
2:54 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
LilD,

Watch the projections carefully. If the storm hits south of TB, storm surge will be much lower than if it hits, say, Tarpon Springs. Also, this storm is expected to be moving so fast that we won't get the torrential flooding rains like those from Frances and Jeanne last year.

Wind is *likely* to be the worst problem for the TB area--boarding up might be a good idea if it's still tracking north of Ft. Myers tomorrow afternoon.

Of course, if it goes a little north of us, you'll be on an island; south Tampa could be entirely submerged!
Member Since: July 24, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
279. CrazyC83
2:50 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
It's my prediction.
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
278. stormydee
2:49 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
crazy, u come up with that or is it posted somewhere on the web?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
277. CrazyC83
2:47 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
I'm thinking that Wilma has temporarily peaked and will come back up to Category 4 in the eyewall cycles, then drop again to break her own record en route to Cuba.

Current - 17.2/82.8 - 882mb - 175mph
6 hrs - 17.6/83.2 - 903mb - 160mph
12 hrs - 18.2/83.7 - 910mb - 150mph
24 hrs - 19.2/83.6 - 885mb - 185mph
36 hrs - 20.5/83.4 - 876mb - 190mph
48 hrs - 21.6/83.2 - 893mb - 175mph Near Isle of Youth
56 hrs - 22.5/83.0 - 899mb - 165mph Landfall Cuba
60 hrs - 22.8/82.9 - 906mb - 145mph Inland
72 hrs - 24.2/81.7 - 895mb - 165mph Over Water Near Middle Keys
75 hrs - 25.5/81.3 - 903mb - 155mph Landfall Florida
96 hrs - 30.2/79.3 - 958mb - 110mph Over Water
118 hrs - 35.1/76.0 - 933mb - 145mph Landfall Outer Banks
120 hrs - 35.5/75.9 - 935mb - 140mph Over Pamlico Sound

Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
276. stormydee
2:45 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Link you can see where the shear starts over N cuba....
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
275. LilDStPete
2:45 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
I'm going to be living on an island and not a peninsula aren't I?
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 6
274. NOLAinNC
2:44 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Sherry, I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but the sooner you leave, the quicker you will get to your destination. If you wait until everyone else gets the idea, it WILL take a long time. It's just a Catch-22 - but like bluewire says, it's different when you have children.
273. stormydee
2:43 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
she isn't stronger...yet...anyone know when they plan to fly into her today?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
272. palmbeacher
2:41 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Hey Destiny. Waking up to a monster this morning. Not cool.
271. stormydee
2:41 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 19, 2005


...Potentially catastrophic category five Hurricane Wilma continues
west-northwestward...Hurricane Warning issued for a portion of the
Yucatan...

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Mexico has issued a
Hurricane Warning from San Felipe to Tulum on the Yucatan
Peninsula...including Cozumel and nearby islands.

Hurricane conditions are also possible on Swan Island.


At 11 am EDT...the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning from south of Tulum to Chetumal.

At 11 am EDT...the government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Belize from the border with Mexico southward to Belize
City.


A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the East Coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula from south of Tulum to Punta gruesa.


A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of
Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of
Youth.


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.


A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.


All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.


A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 17.4 north... longitude 83.2 west or about 325
miles... 520 km... southeast of Cozumel Mexico.


Wilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph ...11 km/hr. A
turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph...280 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common
in hurricanes of this intensity...and are likely during the next 24
hours.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles... 85 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 882 mb...26.05 inches.


Wilma is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 10 to 15
inches...with local amounts near 25 inches in mountainous terrain
across Cuba through Friday. Additional rainfall accumulations of 5
to 10 inches...with local amounts of 15 inches...are possible
across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and Jamaica through
Thursday. Storm total accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with
isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches...are possible from Honduras
northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...17.4 N... 83.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...175 mph. Minimum central pressure... 882 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.


Forecaster Franklin
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
270. CoconutCreekFLA
2:40 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Yeah, destiny but elmo orange blob was cute. Wilma is a meanie
269. Destiny
2:40 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
There is a new post guys
Member Since: September 1, 2002 Posts: 10 Comments: 1
268. stormydee
2:40 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Hi Destiny, isn't that just unbelievable?????
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
267. bluewire
2:39 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
NOLAinNC:

if it were a situation where young ones were not involved I might say "use your judgement and ride it out" if you think you'll stay safe.

with 2 young ones, I will say no such thing. Think of their safety and get north as far as you can.

Trust me, the inconvenience and annoyance of packing up far outweighs the alternative if the storm pushes north further then anticipated.

good luck and stay safe!
266. stormydee
2:39 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Link wind analysis.
I think She will begin to shear once she gets to the gulf area...until then, will she keep strengthening...report out in a few minutes...........................
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
265. SherryB
2:39 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Thank you for your replies..I dont know what to do...

I stayed for Charley - tree on house and cars

Ran for Jeanne - spent 16 hours trying to get to NC.....wished I had stayed home....


I guess I will wait a little while longer to see what transpires...From what I am reading on here, today should be a good indicator of what this monster will do.

264. Destiny
2:37 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Good Morning everybody. OMG What the hec happened last night. So much for the consencensus Wilma wouldn't be anymore than a Cat3. Coconut my dear, I guess your big orange blob really is lurking. I suppose you guys will be heading out?
Member Since: September 1, 2002 Posts: 10 Comments: 1
263. LilDStPete
2:35 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
St. Pete anyone have any predictions for my town?
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 6
262. code1
2:35 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Sorry Coco, "now thinks I am a genius", don't I wish! Living in the panhandle makes you leery before some other areas.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
261. NOLAinNC
2:34 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
I agree with bluewire. Go now and go as far as you can afford. Too many horror stories from Katrina...
260. CoconutCreekFLA
2:33 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Glad to hear it code1. You may have the whole mornin' crew headed to your house :)
259. bluewire
2:32 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Sherry, with two young ones, throw caution to the wind and get out of there ASAP. Think of the children and be safe and good luck.
258. telegon
2:32 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
I think FL punk's desire to have the storm hit his home is the result of over-ingestion of a season's worth of Blockbuster hurricanes, and yes, unlike sportscasters who love to misuse the word, I mean that literally.

It's a natural obsession weather fanatics have. I have the same problem with tornadoes. I wouldn't say it's normal behavior, but I think today's a day for throwing out normal behavior.

I think Wilma, and FL Punk, most probably, agree with me. I still don't see the shear. Hopefully something in the next recon will show me.

Also, keep in mind that the guidance from the last recon on the pressure still, I don't believe, has been verified against instrumental data.

If someone can refute that, please do when you get word.

Thanks.

257. code1
2:32 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Hi Coconut, how funny! Just getting ready to email you. Didn't go back. Had a bad feeling about this one. Client wasn't too happy at first and now thinks I lol I'm home and the same offer you gave me stands here. Let me know.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
256. stormydee
2:30 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
77, you are the bearer of bad news :-(
I know where your coming from though....
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
255. CoconutCreekFLA
2:30 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Thanks, canesfin. I live within walking distance of the broward/palm beach line. I feel much better now :(
254. canesfins
2:28 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
The effect on Miami will be on how far out the windfield is. As projected, it looks to be heading ot the broward palm beach line, and if the hurricance force winfield is around 50 miles the Ft Lauderdale will get hit.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
253. palmbeacher
2:28 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
billsfan, coconut, I am ready, hoping you guys are too! I think I have all I need and will make sure of that today. This is gonna be a bumpy ride.
252. CoconutCreekFLA
2:28 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Sherry, as we learned from Charley. The cone of doom is important. Charley went south of where he was "supposed" to go. Katrina was supposed to hit Deerfield Beach and went to South Miami. It almost always stays in the cone but as someone mentioned earlier, any little bump could sway a storm many miles away for the skinny black line.
250. billsfaninsofla
2:26 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
FtLaudPunk.. please, please, do us all a favor and lose the caps?? and no, you are not normal if you want this thing to hit here
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 6033
249. Trouper415
2:26 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
amen
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 646
248. CoconutCreekFLA
2:26 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Bills: thankfully, I got gas yesterday. I still have my stocked closet. Just need to get some perishables (bread, fruit). I think we will shutter too. We'll see where things stand tonight. Ugh... I have a two story house, cheap builders panels, and about 20 windows. Ain't gonna be fun.
247. SherryB
2:25 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Hi all...anyone feel this could pull a Charley? I am getting a little nervous whereas my husband is going out of town and I have two little ones. I live in Deltona (between Orlando and Daytona)..In your opinions (and yes I know they are opinions) so you think I need to worry?
246. 53rdWeatherRECON
2:24 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Posted By: 53rdWeatherRECON at 9:26 PM GMT on October 18, 2005.
2 things that have got me tweaked.
1. The size of this system during development. Holy Huge Hurricane Batman. I mean It is so under developed, yet look at the size of this beast.

2.If Wilma slips in between the Yucatan and Cuba as predicted that is really threading the needle. I can't believe this can happen without interaction with one or both. Now what kind of interaction I don't know. I lost my topography maps. Obviously the NHC took this into account and they feel strenght/path will not be affected or will be affected the way they predict.

Tonight should be verry interesting. From all of the data I have seen from other sites and my personal comparrison to all of the other storms we have been watching this may just blow our socks off with Rapid Intensification.

We saw some pretty amazing stuff with Rita. I hope for Cuba's sake we don't see a 50-60 mb drop in 12-24hrs.


I hate that I have to go home right now and miss the show tonight.

Strap on your seatbelts ladies and gentleman the ride is about to begin.
Lefty I expect a full report in the morning so stay on her.

Peace

I just had to come GLOAT over here. I saw it happening before anyone

Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
245. HIEXPRESS
2:24 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Big eyes, small eyes... Do all eyes start the same, or do some really form from a big waterspout within the disturbance & widen out, while others form from broad circulations and constrict? Gurus - Opinions?
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
244. stormydee
2:23 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
Punk, have u been thru one before? Closest was Andrew for you????
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517

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