Thailand flood its most expensive in history; Western Caribbean disturbance develops

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:03 PM GMT on October 14, 2011

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Heavy rains in Thailand during September and October have led to extreme flooding that has killed 283 people and caused that nation's most expensive natural disaster in history. On Tuesday, Thailand's finance minister put the damage from the floods at $3.9 billion. This makes the floods of 2011 the most expensive disaster in Thai history, surpassing the $1.3 billion price tag of the November 27, 1993 flood, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Floodwaters have swamped fields and cities in 61 of Thailand's 77 provinces, affected 8.2 million people, and damaged approximately 10% of the nation's rice crop. Thailand is the world's largest exporter of rice, so the disaster may put further upward pressure on world food prices, which are already at the highest levels since the late 1970s. Some of the highest tides of the month occur this weekend in the capital of Bangkok, and the additional pressure that incoming salt water puts on the flood walls protecting the city is a major concern. A moderate monsoon flow continues over Southeast Asia, and the latest GFS model precipitation forecast foresees an additional 2 - 5 inches of rain over most of Thailand during the next three days.


Figure 1. Thailand's Chao Phraya River forms at the confluence of smaller rivers near Nakhon Sawan and flows past Bangkok to the Gulf of Thailand. Floodwalls meant to contain the river collapsed in downtown Nakhon Sawan, the Bangkok Post reported on October 11, 2011. The aftermath of the burst floodwalls left the city looking like a lake. As rivers overflowed in Thailand, the Tônlé Sab (Tonle Sap) lake in neighboring Cambodia (lower right of images) overflowed. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured these images on October 11, 2011, and October 8, 2010. These images use a combination of visible and infrared light to better distinguish between water and land. Vegetation is green, and clouds are pale blue-green. Water is dark blue. In 2011, water rests on floodplains between Phitsanulok and Nakhon Sawan. Image credit: NASA.

Heavy rains due to an active monsoon and moisture from tropical cyclones
Rainfall in September peaked at 574.3mm (22.61") at Nong Kai in Northeastern Thailand, 501mm (19.72") at Uttardit in Northern Thailand, and 1446.7mm (56.96") in Eastern Thailand. For these regions, precipitation averaged 40 - 46% above normal in September. In the week ending Oct. 13, an additional 4 - 8" fell in Central and Thailand, where the capital of Bangkok lies. On Thursday, 38 mm (1.53") fell in Bangkok, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3" fell over much of Central Thailand. Heavy monsoon rains are common in Thailand and Southeast Asia during La Niña events, and we currently have a weak La Niña event occurring. Ocean temperatures in the waters surrounding Thailand during September and October have been approximately 0.3°C above average, which has increased rainfall amounts by putting more water vapor into the air. The remains of Tropical Storm Haitang and Typhoon Nesat also brought heavy rains in late September. The flooding has also affected neighboring Cambodia, killing at least 183 people. Floods have also killed 18 in Vietnam and 30 in Laos this fall.

The Atlantic.com has some remarkable photos of the flooding in Thailand.


Figure 2. Top ten most expensive natural disasters in Thailand since 1900, as tabulated by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). This month's disaster (number one on the table above) is not yet in the CRED data base.

Hurricane Jova kills five in Mexico, but damage limited
Hurricane Jova killed five people in Mexico but damage was less than expected, amounting to less than $52 million, according to AIR-Worldwide. Jova hit the Pacific coast of Mexico Tuesday night as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss rode out the storm on the coast, and has a a great post on his experience, which I excerpt here: "the winds suddenly picked up fiercely and started pounding the building I took shelter in. The surf ran way up on the beach and the waves were pounding the buildings and spraying up over everything at the pool. The wind was screaming and howling and the glass was flying. The Spanish tiles were getting ripped off the roof and all the glass light fixture were popping like balloons."


Figure 3. Mudslide from Hurricane Jova covers a road near Mazanillo, Mexico. Image credit: Mike Theiss.

Invest 94L in the Atlantic no threat
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) between North Carolina and Bermuda is moving quickly to the northeast at 15 - 20 mph. This system has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and a the beginnings of a surface circulation, as seen on recent visible satellite imagery. Conditions are marginal for this to develop into a tropical depression, as wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots, and ocean temperatures are at the lower limit for develoment, 26.5°C (80°F.) NHC is giving 94L a 20% chance of developing.

Western Caribbean disturbance
In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system has developed. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, is invigorating the Western Caribbean low. Heavy rains from the low are affecting much of Central America, Cuba, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and these rains will probably intensify over the weekend as the low moves slowly northwest and gradually develops. The low is too large to develop quickly, and NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a high 20 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range, 15 - 25 knots, over the next three days. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. A personal weather station on Grand Cayman Island has picked up 0.87" of rain so far this morning from the storm. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and South Florida could see heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

Bridge out (MrOgopogo)
The main bridge connecting Santiago and Salagua, washed out, closed even to foot traffic
Bridge out
Lake Las Hadas (MrOgopogo)
Flooding after the near miss by Jova
Lake Las Hadas

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254. BahaHurican
1:37 AM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting Thrawst:


December. :=)
LOL... how about next week.... much closer... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21538
253. BahaHurican
1:35 AM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting nymore:
I have no problem with the number it may be 10,000,000,000 for all I or you know. The problem once again is making it look like that is CRED's number by using their file. When in all honesty we have no idea what their number is. That is a huge problem substituting your own number for a respected firms number and we should all have a problem with it. When the number COMES out use that number till then well.
If you want me to believe that Doctor Masters actively attempted to defraud the public, then posted the page with the correct information so he could be publicly debunked, you have not succeeded. However, I will email the doc myself and ask him about the chart and the referencing thereof.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21538
252. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:34 AM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

EATL Invest...in mid October?

Yeah, it really is a nice wave...For mid-October anyways. It has decent spin and nice convection.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31526
251. BahaHurican
1:30 AM GMT on October 15, 2011
Quoting daveron:



dont laugh those temps will happen and the miami discussion will include this over the weekend...
No, wasn't laughing to suggest u r wrong, but at the possibility of weather that cold after this hot humid week... suggesting an attitude of hopeful scepticism... :o)

Quoting daveron:



i think you are wrong on both counts it will not affect any part of the gom this is going to be for belize and the yucatan ...
I wouldn't be surprised to see some of whatever this becomes being sucked up by a trough / front next week sometime... OTOH, a lot depends on how far any front in the next 7 days dips into the GoM. I wouldn't be surprised to see this linger in the area between the Yucatan and JA for the forecast period.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21538
Quoting BahaHurican:
So, like I said, the REFERENCE is the problem, not the statistic. When I read your original message, I thought you were challenging the STATISTIC. There is, to my mind, a big difference between incorrect information and incorrect referencing. Both are problems, but need to be resolved differently. In this instance, a simple rewording of the reference would clarify the information so your concern would be addressed.
I have no problem with the number it may be 10,000,000,000 for all I or you know. The problem once again is making it look like that is CRED's number by using their file. When in all honesty we have no idea what their number is. That is a huge problem substituting your own number for a respected firms number and we should all have a problem with it. When the number COMES out use that number till then well.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2255
Quoting nymore:
No my point is if I have a statistic that is correct and I post it such as CRED. I don't believe you should add your own statistic to my report and make it look as if it is mine. Just simply say the old stat. may have been beat by a new one.
So, like I said, the REFERENCE is the problem, not the statistic. When I read your original message, I thought you were challenging the STATISTIC. There is, to my mind, a big difference between incorrect information and incorrect referencing. Both are problems, but need to be resolved differently. In this instance, a simple rewording of the reference would clarify the information so your concern would be addressed.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21538
Quoting petewxwatcher:


I know that, I wondered if it was some sort of cyber thing.


I can't tell you. ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's pretty easy to just email the doc. If he's made an error, he's usually pretty good about correcting it.

Unfortunately that comment comes across like "when did you stop beating your wife"....

It's quite still here now, almost as humid as earlier, with temp still at 81 degrees... when is that cold front supposed to get here again? :o)



December. :=)
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1802
Quoting Skyepony:
Ah.. NOAA has declared an invest...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/2345 UTC 9.2N 30.1W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
14/1745 UTC 8.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST

EATL Invest...in mid October?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5630
Quoting BahaHurican:
Oh... I see your point. It doesn't actually matter to you that the Doc's chart is correct. It's the REFERENCING that's the problem for you.

Why didn't you say so? You made it sound like the doc was trying to defraud the public.... like I posted earlier, all you needed to do was WuMail him.

No my point is if I have a statistic that is correct and I post it such as CRED. I don't believe you should add your own statistic to my report and make it look as if it is mine. Just simply say the old stat. may have been beat by a new one.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2255
Somebody was insisting earlier today there would be temps in the upper 50s in the Miami-Dade area before the end of next week.... lol... will wait to see that one...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21538
Update on cold blast expected next week

Wow, I'm ready for this cool down that is coming! Models are bringing the 850 mb freezing line really far South behind this next cold front. Will be interesting to see how it plays out next week!
Member Since: July 17, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 207
Quoting nymore:
While it may be higher or lower does not matter; what matters is it is not posted on Cred's website. When it is, you can use that number. Until then, you can not. You just did the same thing he did and added your own number. Question: is this how news or science works? If it is god help us all
Oh... I see your point. It doesn't actually matter to you that the Doc's chart is giving correct information. It's the REFERENCING that's the problem for you.

Why didn't you say so? You made it sound like the doc was trying to defraud the public.... like I posted earlier, all you needed to do was WuMail him.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21538
Quoting Neapolitan:

No, no fast one; I imagine if Dr. Masters were trying to be sneaky, he wouldn't have gone out of his way to supply sources for his data. Multiple times. The thing is, Dr. Masters quoted the official $3.9 billion estimate that was widely published several days ago--but that figure was released before the floods inundated many factories. It's now actually substantially higher than $3.9 billion; the Federation of Thai Industries estimates damage in the Central Plains at $6.1 billion, making it far more costly than the 1993 flood. Here's a revised chart showing the new higher estimate:

Thailand

More warmth = more atmospheric moisture = heavier rains = larger and more frequent floods. Welcome to your future...
While it may be higher or lower does not matter what matters is it is not posted on Cred's website when it is you can use that number until then you can not. You just did the same thing he did and added your own number. Question: is this how news or science works? If it is god help us all as they say.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2255
Quoting charlottefl:



Yeah...Kinda like getting hit by a cat 4 on Friday the 13th?
.... of January?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21538
Quoting charlottefl:



Yeah...Kinda like getting hit by a cat 4 on Friday the 13th?


*drumroll*
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 557 Comments: 19977
Quoting nymore:
Dr. Masters I think you tried to pull a fast one on us in your blog post today. I went to your sources for your information and it seems you added some things while leaving out others.
Example the Business Week article says the damage MAY BE 3,900,000,000 dollars. The (CRED) source from Belgium for disasters says the worst for economic damages is 1,261,000,000 dollars in 1993. The (CRED) file is updated to October 15, 2011. Either you are a mind reader because the actual figure is not known yet there for not included or you downloaded the file in Excel and you posted the 3,900,000,000 figure as if it was them. I wonder how they would feel about you doing this.
If people on this blog can not even believe you, how is this a credible blog anymore. Hope to hear a response as I could be wrong but so far the facts as I can see them seem to agree with me.

No, no fast one; I imagine if Dr. Masters were trying to be sneaky, he wouldn't have gone out of his way to supply sources for his data. Multiple times. The thing is, Dr. Masters quoted the official $3.9 billion estimate that was widely published several days ago--but that figure was released before the floods inundated many factories. It's now actually substantially higher than $3.9 billion; the Federation of Thai Industries estimates damage in the Central Plains at $6.1 billion, making it far more costly than the 1993 flood. Here's a revised chart showing the new higher estimate:

Thailand

More warmth = more atmospheric moisture = heavier rains = larger and more frequent floods. Welcome to your future...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13465
So it seems we may have Rina this week or Early next week. Formation,if the models are to believed,would be slow and as of now a weak system. Forming near Nw Caribbean/BOC/SW GOM.with most likely track of NE/ENE/EAST,with possible affected areas to include Florida,Cuba,Caymans,Jamaica,Bahamas???? Tropical Storm Rina 50mph,running the Florida Straits,heading east,top off the aquifers of Central and South Florida,before dry season starts in a few weeks. Sound plausible??????
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5136
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I really don't care what y'all call me...TA, TAWX13, '13, all the same thing.. :P



Yeah...Kinda like getting hit by a cat 4 on Friday the 13th?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
Ah.. NOAA has declared an invest...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/2345 UTC 9.2N 30.1W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
14/1745 UTC 8.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST


But still ATCF has not tagged wave nor the Western Caribbean area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
Ah.. NOAA has declared an invest...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/2345 UTC 9.2N 30.1W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
14/1745 UTC 8.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
I saw that earlier but no number. I guess they are watching it but don't really expect too much because of the location.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8273
Thanks for the headsup, Skye. Interesting to have an invest at 30W this far into October...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21538
NVM, Taz.... I think I cleared it.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21538
229. Skyepony (Mod)
Ah.. NOAA has declared an invest...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/2345 UTC 9.2N 30.1W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
14/1745 UTC 8.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Post #220.... Taz, can u do something to fix it, like delete the imagery?

TIA.



can you down lode firefox 7.0 and it will fix it for you



Link


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
227. Skyepony (Mod)
Odd....TRMM has a pass for this. It's name is invest. 9N30W.. Click pic for Quicktime.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Are you using IE, it has been known to have multiple problems with WU?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Post #220.... Taz, can u do something to fix it, like delete the imagery?

TIA.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21538
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21538
Good Day to All
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5136
Here's the 8 pm discussion on the Car...

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC A BROAD 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER E-CENTRAL
GUATEMALA NEAR 16N.590W AND WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER
MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
TO THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER TO THE LOW ITSELF. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM BELIZE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
ALONG 21N85W INTO W-CENTRAL CUBA. BROAD CYCLONIC SWEEP OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS RESULTING IN CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM 18N-21N.
THE SURFACE LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THUS AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO 13N75W MOVING WNW 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N
BETWEEN 70W-74W. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE LARGER MONSOONAL GYRE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND POTENTIALLY EXTEND THE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN
GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS AND GRAPHICASTS ON THE NHC
WEB PAGE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21538
anyone overcasting it into a hurricane lol...............
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.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Most of the forecasts suggest it's going to hang around in the WCar for a few days, and current steering and surface analysis support this idea. By Sunday or Monday, if we've seen any more significant development, we'll likely have a better idea of what steering will be like.
ok thanks folks...great blog here
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Quoting LargoFl:
Will this whatever it becomes bother florida? or a Texas event? anyone know yet?


I think Florida. No rain for Texas, unfortunately. This is supported by climatology as well.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 557 Comments: 19977
Quoting LargoFl:
Will this whatever it becomes bother florida? or a Texas event? anyone know yet?
Most of the forecasts suggest it's going to hang around in the WCar for a few days, and current steering and surface analysis support this idea. By Sunday or Monday, if we've seen any more significant development, we'll likely have a better idea of what steering will be like.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21538
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Can't rule out a track like this for our Caribbean disturbance, perhaps same tropical storm intensity too.

1988 Tropical Storm Keith
oh boy i hope not, the weather here in central florida is fabulous right now, humidity gone and the night is cool and no rain for a few days...wonderful weekend ahead..no tropical nothings plse lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting goodsign:
re: Nymore: "Dr. Masters I think you tried to pull a fast one on us in your blog post today".

I think Dr. Masters has merely exchanged millions for billions. I have done this before myself when I have gotten excited about a topic. Multiplying and dividing with lots of zeros can be taxing.

John
NO he left out the words MAY and BE and then he added himself the figure to the CRED file because it is not on their site. I don't ask anyone to believe me check for yourself
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2255
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND MASSES.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CUBA...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Will this whatever it becomes bother florida? or a Texas event? anyone know yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
re: Nymore: "Dr. Masters I think you tried to pull a fast one on us in your blog post today".

I think Dr. Masters has merely exchanged millions for billions. I have done this before myself when I have gotten excited about a topic. Multiplying and dividing with lots of zeros can be taxing.

John
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wn1995:


Eh, shoulda been kept private in my opinion. You shouldn't go slamming anyone unless you KNOW you are correct, and you don't know, you are making an assumption.
It's pretty easy to just email the doc. If he's made an error, he's usually pretty good about correcting it.

Unfortunately that comment comes across like "when did you stop beating your wife"....

It's quite still here now, almost as humid as earlier, with temp still at 81 degrees... when is that cold front supposed to get here again? :o)

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21538
Hey, all. We've been getting some pretty intense rainfall here in western Nova Scotia the past hour or so, and it appears more to come. It looks on satellite that we're going to feel the effects of that blob that was off the coast of NC last Tuesday (94L, or did it make it that far?) Anyway, it's still firing some pretty decent convection. No wind to speak of, though. Currently 18C, which is pretty odd for these parts at night in mid-October.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wn1995:


Eh, shoulda been kept private in my opinion. You shouldn't go slamming anyone unless you KNOW you are correct, and you don't know, you are making an assumption.
No go read the article in BW then go to CRED and tell me what you find.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2255
Quoting nymore:
Dr. Masters I think you tried to pull a fast one on us in your blog post today. I went to your sources for your information and it seems you added some things while leaving out others.
Example the Business Week article says the damage MAY BE 3,900,000 dollars. The (CRED) source from Belgium for disasters says the worst for economic damages is 1,261,000 dollars in 1993. The (CRED) file is updated to October 15, 2011. Either they are mind readers because the actual figure is not known yet or you downloaded the file in Excel and you posted the 3,900,000 figure as if it was them. I wonder how they would feel about you doing this.
If people on this blog can not even believe you, how is this a credible blog anymore. Hope to hear a response as I could be wrong but so far the facts as I can see them seem to agree with me.


Eh, shoulda been kept private in my opinion. You shouldn't go slamming anyone unless you KNOW you are correct, and you don't know, you are making an assumption.
Member Since: July 17, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 207
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND MASSES.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CUBA...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
edited
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2255
Dr. Masters I think you tried to pull a fast one on us in your blog post today. I went to your sources for your information and it seems you added some things while leaving out others.
Example the Business Week article says the damage MAY BE 3,900,000,000 dollars. The (CRED) source from Belgium for disasters says the worst for economic damages is 1,261,000,000 dollars in 1993. The (CRED) file is updated to October 15, 2011. Either you are a mind reader because the actual figure is not known yet there for not included or you downloaded the file in Excel and you posted the 3,900,000,000 figure as if it was them. I wonder how they would feel about you doing this.
If people on this blog can not even believe you, how is this a credible blog anymore. Hope to hear a response as I could be wrong but so far the facts as I can see them seem to agree with me.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2255
Quoting BahaHurican:
This reminds me of zoomiami's WunderBlogger map. I think Orca has it up on his blog too. It shows locations for all the Wunderbloggers who sent in their information. Course, a lot of the newer bloggers may not be on...
I'm from Connecticut-Land. :)
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Quoting Thrawst:


Stupidly, I decided to play some tennis under the anvil of that storm. I got soaked and thunder was loud, but nothing too incredibly close, thank god. lol.

I hope you were not using a metal racquet!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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