Jova and TD-12E kill 18 in Mexico, Guatemala

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:18 AM GMT on October 13, 2011

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Hurricane Jova has dissipated, but its remnants continues to dump heavy rains over Mexico's coastal mountains near Puerto Vallarta. Jova made landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast at 10 pm PDT Tuesday night as a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds, and was the strongest hurricane to hit Mexico's Pacific coast since Hurricane Jimena hit Baja as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds in 2009. Jova's torrential rains triggered flooding and mudslides that have killed five people so far in Mexico. Jova's highest rainfall amounts on Tuesday occurred in Coquimatlan, located in the state of Colima, about 30 miles northeast of Manzanillo. Coquimatlan recorded 374.4 mm (14.74") of rain on Tuesday, according to the Mexican weather service. This is not far below the all-time record hurricane rainfall for Colima state, which is 15.57", set in 1998 during Hurricane Javier.

Another significant rainfall threat is the remains Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border yesterday afternoon. TD-12E is being blamed for the deaths of thirteen people in Guatemala, due to flooding, mudslides, and electrocutions from downed power lines. Tropical Depression Irwin, which is headed eastwards towards the same stretch of Mexican coast Jova affected, is expected to dissipate before reaching the coast. It is unlikely Irwin will bring significant rains to Mexico.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Jova (upper right) and Tropical Storm Irwin (lower left) taken at 1:30 pm EDT October 12, 2011. At the time, Jova had 65 mph winds, and Irwin had 40 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Barra de Navidad, just north-west of Manzanillo, and received a direct hit from Jova's eye. His final report; "Found a small building north of La Manzanilla directly in path of Hurricane Jova's eye. No power, only iPhone battery and still cell service for now. We will get a direct hit here but no lights to see anything to film. Waves are large and crashing on building. Only going to get worse !! Sorry no photos yet, today was actually nice all day and right at dark wind picked up and knocked out power."

Quiet in the Atlantic
Many of the computer models continue to predict that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or extreme southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Some of the spin and moisture for this storm could come from the remains of TD 12-E.

Jeff Masters

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543. Neapolitan
2:03 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13277
542. stormwatcherCI
2:01 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting strong2011storm:



in the next hours should be very rainy in the cayman
It has been since last night and still coming down good. Looks like night here.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
541. strong2011storm
1:59 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Very heavy rains and winds gusting to 30-35 mph. I live on the SE coast of Grand Cayman. Sea is choppy to rough.



in the next hours should be very rainy in the cayman
Member Since: September 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
540. strong2011storm
1:55 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican:
if you read some of the posts from earlier this morning, you will see some reports given by poeple living in Cayman...


thanks i have read the posts now
Member Since: September 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
539. hydrus
1:55 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:


Wow. I hear the rumbling of thunder heading this way so I guess we will soon get some of the same dowm here.
Good morning K-Man.. Things are startin to look interesting down there. Your thoughts?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19545
538. stormwatcherCI
1:55 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting strong2011storm:
the clouds in cayman are scary anyone livers there , report how are the weather
Very heavy rains and winds gusting to 30-35 mph. I live on the SE coast of Grand Cayman. Sea is choppy to rough.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
537. Orcasystems
1:53 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
536. BahaHurican
1:51 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting strong2011storm:
the clouds in cayman are scary anyone livers there , report how are the weather
if you read some of the posts from earlier this morning, you will see some reports given by poeple living in Cayman...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
535. strong2011storm
1:48 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
the clouds in cayman are scary anyone livers there , report how are the weather
Member Since: September 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
534. whepton3
1:37 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican:
Geez... no wonder it's pitch dark in Cayman.....




For those of you in the Caymans... the sun did come up today.

You just can't tell.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
533. BahaHurican
1:35 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Geez... no wonder it's pitch dark in Cayman.....


Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
532. whepton3
1:26 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican:
NAM does best with tropical things that form right in that area, and sometimes with sub-tropical style development off the US east coast. Other than that it's not the greatest tropical formation forecaster.


That's why I was careful to qualify it.

It does have a big crush on this area... most of the other models I've seen just wander it around for several days for the exception of the UKMET.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
530. Thrawst
1:26 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican:
Backatcha... lol... I can wait for storms until Sunday, TYVM.... want to get some stuff done in the yard today and tomorrow.... Sunday would be good for watering naturally..... :)

Besides, Discovery Day is traditionally the Last Beach Day of the season.... like Labour Day in the US.... locals allegedly don't go swimming so much after that because it's too cold.... Of course the wx of late has kept it warm enough 4 water / air temps to be quite comfortable right into December. Somehow, with that cold front expected later next week, I don't think too many pple will be hitting the beach next weekend.... lol



Since I enjoy the waves of the strong northerly winds in the summer, I'm in the ocean in the even worst of days haha. But yeah, I know, I used to live in the States. In Georgia right now, they are expecting low 80's and sunshine.... also good pool wx.
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1731
529. BahaHurican
1:24 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Hey, CRS.... how's ur house / boat stuff?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
528. CaicosRetiredSailor
1:23 PM GMT on October 14, 2011

Hurricane Jova....A wild ride on the Mexican Coast...IN THE DARK !!
Published: 2:41 AM EDT on October 14, 2011

A wild ride on the Mexican Coast....IN THE DARK !!!



My first Pacific Hurricane chase is in the books. Overall it was an intense experience and I learned a lot about this part of Mexico for future Hurricane chases. I'm disappointed I was not able to document more of it to share with everyone. This chase reminds me of Cat 4 Hurricane Emily in Playa del Carmen, Mexico because all of it happened in the darkness of the night.

If Jova had sped up or slowed down in forward speed it might have struck during daytime and I was hoping for this not only for documentation reasons but also a Hurricane at night is way more dangerous for the local people simply because they can't see what's happening. At least if its daylight outside people might be able to react to flying debris, mudslides and rockslides etc...

The Hurricane force wind field of this storm was very compact. At dusk there was very little wind or rain and I kept looking at the satellite images and couldn't figure out where was the wind??.....It was so strange, once the sun set and it was dark outside the winds suddenly picked up fiercely and started pounding the building I took shelter in. The surf ran way up on the beach and the waves were pounding the buildings and spraying up over everything at the pool. The wind was screaming and howling and the glass was flying. The Spanish tiles were getting ripped off the roof and all the glass light fixture were popping like balloons. The audio was insane and the fact that it was pitch black outside was ripping me apart. I wanted to document this event so badly in good quality but just couldn't make it work. If you look at the photo I included in this blog it looks like there were lots of lights but in fact this is a still photo with a super duper high ISO and long exposure so the little bit of light that was available made for a decent still photo, grainy but decent. But as far as video, it was a no-go from this location. Ma Nature did not want me to get video of her wind during Jova. I shot some video for the audio that I will be posting in a few days...



Daybreak...The wind completely STOPPED just before morning light and it was only raining outside like a tropical rain storm. So the plan was to head out at daybreak and get video of possible mudslides/rockslide and try to document some aspect of Jova. Problem was all this rain created massive flooding at our location and we were trapped. There was no way out via automobile. We waited and waited and waited. Watching the water slowly drain was as painful as watching paint dry. There was no power, internet, cellphone or anything ! A man came down the hill to our location and told us he rode out the Hurricane roughly 20 minutes to our North on highway 200 and he was in the calm eye that lasted for 30 minutes. I knew I was close but wasn't sure how close since I had no internet, phone or power for over 14 hours at that point. At my location I recorded a barometric pressure of 986mb. I was in a resort area in between the towns of La Manzanilla and Emiliano Zapata. I was in a building right on the beach in the tip of land that sticks out called Tenacatita...



Eventually by late afternoon the water receded enough to allow us to make a break for it. We made it out of this flooded area only to find many mudslides and rockslides. The Army was out in the streets clearing the roads and assessing the damage. We carefully drove 10 hours from our location to Guadalajara to catch our plane and fly home.....

As far as damage, I think on a widespread scale the mudslides were the big issue as rivers swelled and washed away roadways. We witnessed many giant rocks in the road that could crush a car like a tin can. There was a stretch on highway 200 with trees ripped to shreds from the eyewall of Jova and lots of flooding.

We pray for the residents of these areas hit by Hurricane Jova......

Mike Theiss


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/MikeTheiss/artic le.html?entrynum=110
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
527. CitikatzSouthFL
1:22 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting daveron:


wow really cold temps for next week ...lows are going into the upper 30s and highs not getting out of the low 60s...this is a major change and it will spread over fla with tons of dry air and strong north winds...as far as south fla may see lows in the upper 50s...major change coming..


With a cold front on the way and mischief brewing down in the Carrib, I am nervous. Wilma started down there and a big ol' cold front pulled her up and over Florida like suction from a vacume cleaner! Of course, waking up the next morning to 50 degree weather was nice! If you have to have a storm and lose electricity, etc., it is much better to have cool, dry weather rather than hot and HUMID! Gonna keep my eyes on this sucker and see what (if anything) develops. You all in the Caymans and other islands hunker down and stay safe.
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 414
526. BahaHurican
1:21 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
NAM does best with tropical things that form right in that area, and sometimes with sub-tropical style development off the US east coast. Other than that it's not the greatest tropical formation forecaster.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
525. hurricanehunter27
1:19 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
KRAKATAU Indonesia 6.102°S, 105.423°E; summit elev. 813 m

On 8 October, a news article stated that activity at Anak Krakatau was increasing; the number of seismic events was 5,204 on 6 October, 5,543 on 7 October, and 5,883 on 8 October. The Alert Level remained at 3 (on a scale of 1-4), and visitors and residents were not permitted to approach the volcano within a 2-km radius.

Geologic Summary. Renowned Krakatau volcano lies in the Sunda Strait between Java and Sumatra. Collapse of the ancestral Krakatau edifice, perhaps in 416 AD, resulted in a 7-km-wide caldera. Remnants of this volcano formed Verlaten and Lang Islands; subsequently Rakata, Danan and Perbuwatan volcanoes were formed, coalescing to create the pre-1883 Krakatau Island. Caldera collapse during the catastrophic 1883 eruption destroyed Danan and Perbuwatan volcanoes, and left only a remnant of Rakata volcano. The post-collapse cone of Anak Krakatau (Child of Krakatau), constructed within the 1883 caldera at a point between the former cones of Danan and Perbuwatan, has been the site of frequent eruptions since 1927.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
524. BahaHurican
1:18 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting Thrawst:


Happy Holidays.. lol.
Hope we get some storm today.. been boring as of late.
Backatcha... lol... I can wait for storms until Sunday, TYVM.... want to get some stuff done in the yard today and tomorrow.... Sunday would be good for watering naturally..... :)

Besides, Discovery Day is traditionally the Last Beach Day of the season.... like Labour Day in the US.... locals allegedly don't go swimming so much after that because it's too cold.... Of course the wx of late has kept it warm enough 4 water / air temps to be quite comfortable right into December. Somehow, with that cold front expected later next week, I don't think too many pple will be hitting the beach next weekend.... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
523. whepton3
1:18 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
06Z NAM (not necessarily a whiz-bang tropical model) still is very aggressive with the Caribbean disturbance...

996MB low in 84 hours:



Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
522. stormwatcherCI
1:16 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I guess both know this place. When you see this as invest?

That is just about a mile east of me.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
520. hurricanehunter27
1:10 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting weatherh98:


el hiero
Cool image. Im wondering, is that the island that can have a massive landslide and cause a large tsunami and send it to the east coast?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
519. Thrawst
1:04 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. Looking a lot more interesting in our basin this a.m. than last week....

We have a holiday here today [Discovery Day Observed] so in between stuff I should be able to blog a bit.

Breakfast, however, is the first order of the day.... lol


Happy Holidays.. lol.
Hope we get some storm today.. been boring as of late.
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1731
518. whepton3
1:00 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:



Sure do. Yesterday my expectations were for development to begin sometime after midnight tonight towards noon tomorrow. That still looks good to me. 28 MPH wind gusts now and very nasty outside.

Invest status probably not before tomorrow assuming shear falls enough today for this to ramp up and organize. Right now it is still very disorganized.


Morning Kman... hope all of you avoid the real nastiness.

Was at work most of the day yesterday, and blew up a lot in the 12 hours I stayed away from the sat loops.

Watched pot never boils.

I think your timeline is right, but I'm still eager to see where we are in 12 hours and the sun sets over the Caribbean again.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
517. kmanislander
12:58 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Back later
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
516. kmanislander
12:50 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting stormpetrol:
A low appears to be forming around 13N/80.5W


That's where the surface convergence is now and the 850 mb vort is near there but just onshore. That is the region where we typically see these late season systems spin up.

In any event a very wet and windy day here. Probably a couple of inches of rain on tap today if not more.Pressure now rising rapidly though at 1009.5 mbs so nothing imminent.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
515. strong2011storm
12:49 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
caribean is loking scary and puerto rico could se very strong rains with that clouds
and look at eastern pacific closo to the caribean that sistem is turning huge
Member Since: September 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
514. stormpetrol
12:45 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
A low appears to be forming around 13N/80.5W
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
513. kmanislander
12:44 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey kman I see the darkness from here yep this is going to be our storm should be in our area by maybe sat sun jmo


Shear needs to fall some more but conditions are much more favourable overhead today than 24 hours ago. If the trend continues shear values should be favourable later today.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
512. Neapolitan
12:42 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Irwin is barely hanging in there, but he's the only thing left on the board ATM:

EP, 11, 2011101412, , BEST, 0, 187N, 1068W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 0,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13277
511. kmanislander
12:40 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I guess both know this place. When you see this as invest?




Sure do. Yesterday my expectations were for development to begin sometime after midnight tonight towards noon tomorrow. That still looks good to me. 28 MPH wind gusts now and very nasty outside.

Invest status probably not before tomorrow assuming shear falls enough today for this to ramp up and organize. Right now it is still very disorganized.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
510. wunderkidcayman
12:40 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
hey kman I see the darkness from here yep this is going to be our storm should be in our area by maybe sat sun jmo
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9587
509. stormpetrol
12:39 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Very heavy rain and gusty winds now.


Good morning, but it looks almost like midnight here!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
508. kmanislander
12:36 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Pitch black here now and wind really picking up
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
507. Tropicsweatherpr
12:36 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:


Wow. I hear the rumbling of thunder heading this way so I guess we will soon get some of the same dowm here.


I guess both know this place. When you see this as invest?

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13308
506. TropicTraveler
12:36 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just looking at the Quake maps........sure seems like activity has certainly picked up all of a sudden.


The planet is restless. Halloween nears. Be very afraid.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 919
505. strong2011storm
12:35 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
the situation on el hierro is quite interesting because of the underwater eruption, but the earthquakes doesn`t stop i am afraid that other fissure coud open
the island was formaed by only 3 eruptions, this is scary because 3 eruptions forming a great island. this are saying that the power of the eruptions is very big
Member Since: September 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
504. kmanislander
12:29 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks. East End is raining very hard and winds gusting to about 30 mph.


Wow. I hear the rumbling of thunder heading this way so I guess we will soon get some of the same dowm here.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
503. TropicTraveler
12:28 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:



Interesting 3 LOWs at the Equator........

These water vapor charts are so beautiful - they look like abstract art of the most dramatic kind. Thanks for posting this.

Good morning everyone!
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 919
502. BahaHurican
12:28 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Morning all. Looking a lot more interesting in our basin this a.m. than last week....

We have a holiday here today [Discovery Day Observed] so in between stuff I should be able to blog a bit.

Breakfast, however, is the first order of the day.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
501. stormwatcherCI
12:26 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

Conditions on the SW end of the island are very still but getting darker by the minute. No rain yet but .37 inches since midnight last night.

Overall the status quo remains unchanged in the NW Caribbean. Shear has fallen some more and conditions continue to improve for some development to possibly occur over the weekend. The ASCAT pass last night shows that whatever low exists was over land near the Nicaragua/Honduras border area which explains why we have been seeing the 850 mb vort concentrated just offshore that area.

Steering remains weak so expect this weather to just hang around.

Thanks. East End is raining very hard and winds gusting to about 30 mph.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
500. entrelac
12:21 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting Chicklit:
oops...I was looking for October shots!
You can search Hunter's Moon. That's the October full moon's name.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 234
499. kmanislander
12:19 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Very heavy rain and gusty winds now.


Good morning

Conditions on the SW end of the island are very still but getting darker by the minute. No rain yet but .37 inches since midnight last night.

Overall the status quo remains unchanged in the NW Caribbean. Shear has fallen some more and conditions continue to improve for some development to possibly occur over the weekend. The ASCAT pass last night shows that whatever low exists was over land near the Nicaragua/Honduras border area which explains why we have been seeing the 850 mb vort concentrated just offshore that area.

Steering remains weak so expect this weather to just hang around.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
498. stormwatcherCI
12:08 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Very heavy rain and gusty winds now.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
497. GeoffreyWPB
11:58 AM GMT on October 14, 2011
Also from the Key West Discussion...

ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1964...HURRICANE ISBELL
MOVED OFF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA HEADING NORTHEAST. THE STORM MOVED
JUST WEST OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS. IN KEY WEST THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS
29.49 INCHES OF MERCURY...999 MB...WITH A PEAK WIND OF 80 MPH...A
FOUR TO FIVE FOOT STORM SURGE...AND CAUSED 250 MILLION DOLLARS IN
DAMAGE.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
496. GeoffreyWPB
11:56 AM GMT on October 14, 2011
Key West NWS Discussion

Long Term...

THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA HAS A BIT BETTER CHANCE
TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE STRAITS WITH FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
POSSIBLY USHERING IN SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THE MEDIUM RANGE
PROGS SOME SOME DIVERSITY IN THAT THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT THROUGH THE
KEYS LATE THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT PARKED ON TOP OF
THE KEYS THEN RETREATING AGAIN...SIMILAR TO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL
HOLD OFF THE WISH-CAST FOR NOW KEEP WITH THE GFS SOLUTION WE ALREADY
HAVE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WISHFUL THINKING WANTS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
495. stormwatcherCI
11:56 AM GMT on October 14, 2011

Don't know if this will work but if it does it is the sky over Cayman 5 minutes ago. Has gotten even darker now.

Edit: Sorry, won't post.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
494. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:51 AM GMT on October 14, 2011
This time last season, we were tracking Paula, a Category 1 hurricane on an intensity downfall, in the Western Caribbean. Richard doesn't develop until 10/20/10, so we may get ahead of 2010 once again.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
493. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:38 AM GMT on October 14, 2011
8AM EDT TWO:

ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST
OF BERMUDA. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT DRIFTS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...CUBA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.