Powerful Category 3 Hurricane Jova nears landfall in Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on October 11, 2011

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Rain bands from powerful Category 3 Hurricane Jova are already deluging the southwest coast of Mexico as the storm heads towards landfall late this afternoon between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has weakened since yesterday afternoon, with the eye no longer visible and the cloud pattern no longer as symmetric. Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the southeast managed to inject some dry air into the core of Jova that disrupted the storm's eyewall, and it is unlikely the hurricane will be able to intensify beyond its current 115 mph strength before landfall. It is more likely that Jova will weaken as it approaches land, due to the storm's small size, which makes is vulnerable to disruption when the outer portion of the circulation hits the mountains along the Mexican coast. If Jova maintains its Category 3 strength until landfall, it will rank as one of the ten most intense Pacific hurricanes to hit Mexico since record keeping began in 1949, according to a comprehensive list of Eastern Pacific hurricane landfalls at Wikipedia. However, I expect Jova's interaction with the high mountains of Mexico will knock it down to a Category 2 storm with 100 - 105 mph winds by landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards only 15 miles from the center of Jova, so a relatively small stretch of moderately to lightly-populated stretch of coast will see Jova's high winds and dangerous storm surge. A much larger swath of Mexico will see very heavy rains of 6 - 12 inches, and these rains are the primary threat from the hurricane.

The shape of the coast near Puerto Vallarta makes it difficult for a high storm surge to affect that city. Jova is passing far enough to the east of Puerto Vallarta that the winds in the Bay should be capable of elevating a surge to a height of just 1 - 2 feet above normal water levels, with perhaps a slight chance of a surge as high as 3 feet affecting the city. However, there will be high battering waves on top of the storm surge, and these waves may cause damage to ocean front property. I was in Puerto Vallarta during Hurricane Paine of 1986, and while we didn't see much of a storm surge, the coast experienced 10-foot waves that tore apart the sea wall protecting the swimming pool of the hotel I was staying at. The highest storm tide from Jova should occur near 9:55am CDT Wednesday morning, which is the time of high tide. Jova will be at its closest to Puerto Vallarta then, and is likely to be a strong tropical storm with 60 mph winds.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Jova taken at 1:40 pm EDT October 10, 2011. At the time, Jova was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Links to follow Jova
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Barra de Navidad, just north-west of Manzanillo, and will be giving us live blogs and photos from the landfall of Jova, as his power and Internet connections permit.

Manzanillo weather

>Puerto Vallarta webcam

Tropical Depression Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Tropical Depression Irwin, farther to the west, may also be a concern. The computer forecast models show that late this week, Irwin will approach the same stretch of Mexican coast Jova is affecting. However, Irwin is a weak storm that is may not survive, due to high wind shear, and may end up not bringing significant rains to Mexico.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are currently no threat areas in the Atlantic, now that Invest 93L has moved ashore over the Southeast U.S. Invest 93L did have tropical storm force winds, and will be re-analyzed in the off-season by NHC to see if it did indeed have enough organization to qualify as an unnamed subtropical storm.

The ECMWF and NOGAPS models continue to predict that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean early next week. Some of the spin and moisture for this storm could potentially come from an area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific, (Invest 99E), that is currently just offshore of the Mexico/Guatemala border. Invest 99E is expected to move inland over Central America over the next few days, bringing very heavy rains capable of causing flash flooding and mudslides to Southeast Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Repost from last blog.
Entirely possible that 93L wasn't anything we've ever seen in the Atlantic. It doesn't meet the requirements for a tropical or subtropical storm, but it didn't meet the requirements for a nontropical low, a landcane, or anything of the such. Wasn't a tropical wave, wasn't a nor'easter either or extratropical for that matter. Was a warm core feature, that's for sure, with a closed circulation, that's pretty much for sure to. But looking closer into it, you only had the warmcore features in a small core surrounded by an entirely non-tropical system. It was almost two systems in one, I have never seen anything like 93L in the Atlantic before.

Thanks Cybre,
This is what I was thinking, in spite of some furious comments from a couple people who believe that EVERYTHING is ALWAYS cut-and-dry.

The NHC is going to review all the Data on this system, and until they do that, and make a definitive statement on it, we wait and wonder at Nature's variation.
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Let me say this there are many who subscribe to Bastardi and watch his videos and yes he is animated but he is right more often than wrong. He looks at the charts using some common sense approaches which are lacking in today's newer robotic mets who work at NHC. I worked there under Dr. Neil Frank along with John Hope, Miles Lawrence, Paul Hebert etc. These guys even without todays technology would never have taken a chance on a radar display for 93L and not name it. They were not textbook meteorologists. I worked as a support Met Tech in the satellite group. One of my co-workers was Max mayfield in the 70's. Levi32 also supports the fact that the system should have been named. He and others watch JB's discussions. I have seen crown weather use JBs own words but would never admit it. Unless you subscribe to him you can not credibily blast the guy. I hope you understand my point and I apologize if I offended you.



Quoting pottery:

I think the point being made was this...

You love Joe B.
But if he became head of the NHC, how long would it take for you to hate him?

Hypothetical, of course.
But it obviously touched a raw nerve with you....
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People oppose the decisions and statements of authority when they believe the authority is incorrect. That goes for presidents or the NHC. The people of this country are free to oppose their president whom they elected. So we also are free to oppose the NHC when our meteorological sense is violated by something this large. It's easy to blow it off and say it isn't that big of a deal, but to us who care deeply about meteorology and the definitions by which we collect data, it is. The NHC deserves to be heavily questioned on this matter. Obviously very few people are willing to do so, but would rather side with power and in so doing pick the safer road to travel. Nobody would have any meaning in the world if their opinion was defined by the opinion of the group in power.

Nothing about this contains a lack of respect for the NHC, and I hold them in the highest regard possible, as I'm sure most people do. I believe they do an outstanding job. However, that doesn't mean that I'm going to suck up to them....I'm going to question them where I think something is questionable, and as our official government office for tropical weather, I expect them to follow guidelines that they themselves laid out. In recent years, there have been many examples of those guidelines not being followed in the way they were written, including this recent event. Thus, is it not only natural to ask for either a redefined set of guidelines or at least for the forecasters interpret them consistently? Isn't it natural to question why a system was or wasn't named based on the freely-available data at hand? Is that so blasphemous?

That's my 2 cents.
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Repost from last blog.
Entirely possible that 93L wasn't anything we've ever seen in the Atlantic. It doesn't meet the requirements for a tropical or subtropical storm, but it didn't meet the requirements for a nontropical low, a landcane, or anything of the such. Wasn't a tropical wave, wasn't a nor'easter either or extratropical for that matter. Was a warm core feature, that's for sure, with a closed circulation, that's pretty much for sure to. But looking closer into it, you only had the warmcore features in a small core surrounded by an entirely non-tropical system. It was almost two systems in one, I have never seen anything like 93L in the Atlantic before.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23009
i dont think a nws skywarn certification qualify's as a met degree??,oh yea ive studied climate and wx as well and dont go boss hogging around here like i have a degree ;)
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Quoting portcharlotte:
I think you should stick to your pots or whatever you do. Obviously, you are not able to look at objective data or have a background as a Met of any kind. Sorry to sound rude but it really bothers me when people can't understand it...that is the data...



Nice!
And what exactly WAS the data?
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I found this link of a webcam in Puerto Vallarta but is updating every 10 seconds. I would like to find a realtime webcam in that area.

Link


TWC had one...

Run and hide now.................
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I found this link of a webcam in Puerto Vallarta but is updating every 10 seconds. I would like to find a realtime webcam in that area.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting portcharlotte:



Sorry I realize you did not have a quote in there. but your comments are in relation to Joe Bastardi. There are many experts who work in the field including myself who disagree with the NHC on this one. We are not fools.


I think the point being made was this...

You love Joe B.
But if he became head of the NHC, how long would it take for you to hate him?

Hypothetical, of course.
But it obviously touched a raw nerve with you....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
joe b's just mad the nhc wouldnt hire him because he's to much fluff,lol
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Quoting daveron:
florida is in good shape for at least late this week into early next week with all the dry air that will be over the state from a cold front coming through late friday and saturday...so they are safe for now..


I don't want to be safe, I want a Cat 1 hurricane.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2905
Quoting portcharlotte:
Sorry you are the fool and the person who wrote the narrative is Joe Bastardi and he is right. Also, I would not post that quote on this site since it originated from a pay site which I am part of.



You dont get it, do you....
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Quoting Jedkins01:


To me I make notice that people aren't just trying to prove it was a Subtropical system, rather they are trying to find any excuse to bash the NHC because they are the experts, and for whatever reason there are a number of people who love to sit and little seats and judge those more knowledgeable then them. Its not just something you see here, it occurs everywhere. There is a general disrespect of others in authority, and or those who have more experience/knowledge in a field.

Everyone loved President Obama till he actually became President, now very many have a burning hate towards him, sometimes the very people who supported him. There may be a lot I disagree with that hes done, but he is my authority and President, and I respect him.

A fool is wise in his own eyes.
,probably the most intelligent statement ive heard on this blog in a long time,yor a smart kid ,follow your dreams
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Quoting will40:





Link

doesnt seem to be updating tho



yea, is not updating but thanks anyway.
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Quoting will40:

42. prcane4you 12:41 PM EDT on October 11, 2011


not until at least Nov 30th
I mean Puerto Rico & Virgins Islands.
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Quoting aquak9:


not for the dog...


Aquak, ya beat me to the obvious. :)
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


First off, Bud would have been a shepherd and not a cowboy. Second, would it not have been more fun to just let him keep the dog?

True. Also: a single GPS satellite is incapable of providing a fix; Cingular no longer exists; the Palm Pilot has been out of production for nearly ten years; the RAZR line has been largely supplanted by smart phones; the--wait. What's that? This is a joke? And it's from 2000? And it was originally about business consultants? Oh. Well, then. Nevermind. ;-)
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
does anyone know a link to a webcam in or near Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta to see the effects of Jova.





Link

doesnt seem to be updating tho
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
does anyone know a link to a webcam in or near Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta to see the effects of Jova ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

42. prcane4you 12:41 PM EDT on October 11, 2011


not until at least Nov 30th
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TXMegaWatt:
A Cowboy Named bud


A cowboy named Bud was overseeing his herd in a remote pasture when
> suddenly a brand-new BMW advanced toward him out of a cloud of dust.
>
> The driver, a young man in a Brioni suit, Gucci shoes, RayBan
> sunglasses and YSL tie, leaned out the window and asked the cowboy,
> "If I tell you exactly how many cows and calves you have in your
> herd, Will you give me a calf?"
>
>
>
> Bud looks at the man, obviously a yuppie, then looks at his
> peacefully grazing herd and calmly answers, "Sure, Why not?"
>
> The yuppie parks his car, whips out his Dell notebook computer,
> connects it to his Cingular RAZR V3 cell phone, and surfs to a
> NASApage on the Internet, where he calls up a GPS satellite to get
> an exact fix on his location which he then feeds to another NASA
> satellite that scans the area in an ultra-high-resolution photo.
>
> The young man then opens the digital photo in Adobe Photoshop and
> exports it to an image processing facility in Hamburg , Germany .
>
> Within seconds, he receives an email on his Palm Pilot that the
> image has been processed and the data stored.
>
> He then accesses an MS-SQL database through an ODBC connected Excel
> spreadsheet with email on his Blackberry and, after a few minutes,
> receives a response.
>
> Finally, he prints out a full-color, 150-page report on his hi-
> tech, miniaturized HP LaserJet printer, turns to the cowboy and
> says, "You have exactly 1,586 cows and calves."
>
>
> "That's right. Well, I guess you can take one of my calves," says Bud.
>
>
> He watches the young man select one of the animals and looks on
> with amusement as the young man stuffs it into the trunk of his car.
>
>
> Then Bud says to the young man, "Hey, if I can tell you exactly
> what your business is, will you give me back my calf?"
>
>
> The young man thinks about it for a second and then says, "Okay,
> why not?"
>
>
> "You're an aide in the Obama Administration", says Bud.
>
>
> "Wow! That's correct," says the yuppie, "but how did you guess that?"
>
>
> "No guessing required." answered the cowboy. "You showed up here
> even though nobody called you; you want to get paid for an answer I
> already knew, to a question I never asked. You used millions of
> dollars worth of equipment trying to show me how much smarter than
> me you are; and you don't know a thing about how working people
> make a living - or about cows, for that matter. This is a herd of sheep.
>
>
> Now give me back my dog.



Funny. But when I saw something similar to this a few years ago, it was about the Bush administration. Guess all political jokes can be re-cycled to fit the era. Back to weather.
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Hurricane season is almost over.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TXMegaWatt - this is funny but could have just about any politician's name in it. Loved the twist at the ending.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 914
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


First off, Bud would have been a shepherd and not a cowboy. Second, would it not have been more fun to just let him keep the dog?


not for the dog...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Buhdog:
I cant get my eyes off this site.... it is the rsoe edis emergency site. It has every major incident from fires to floods to earthquakes and even hazmat issues. Pretty cool as it is in real time. Stumbled up on it ... i think you all will like it.

Link


Thanks an interesting site for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TXMegaWatt:
A Cowboy Named bud


A cowboy named Bud was overseeing his herd in a remote pasture when
> suddenly a brand-new BMW advanced toward him out of a cloud of dust.
>
> The driver, a young man in a Brioni suit, Gucci shoes, RayBan
> sunglasses and YSL tie, leaned out the window and asked the cowboy,
> "If I tell you exactly how many cows and calves you have in your
> herd, Will you give me a calf?"
>
>
>
> Bud looks at the man, obviously a yuppie, then looks at his
> peacefully grazing herd and calmly answers, "Sure, Why not?"
>
> The yuppie parks his car, whips out his Dell notebook computer,
> connects it to his Cingular RAZR V3 cell phone, and surfs to a
> NASApage on the Internet, where he calls up a GPS satellite to get
> an exact fix on his location which he then feeds to another NASA
> satellite that scans the area in an ultra-high-resolution photo.
>
> The young man then opens the digital photo in Adobe Photoshop and
> exports it to an image processing facility in Hamburg , Germany .
>
> Within seconds, he receives an email on his Palm Pilot that the
> image has been processed and the data stored.
>
> He then accesses an MS-SQL database through an ODBC connected Excel
> spreadsheet with email on his Blackberry and, after a few minutes,
> receives a response.
>
> Finally, he prints out a full-color, 150-page report on his hi-
> tech, miniaturized HP LaserJet printer, turns to the cowboy and
> says, "You have exactly 1,586 cows and calves."
>
>
> "That's right. Well, I guess you can take one of my calves," says Bud.
>
>
> He watches the young man select one of the animals and looks on
> with amusement as the young man stuffs it into the trunk of his car.
>
>
> Then Bud says to the young man, "Hey, if I can tell you exactly
> what your business is, will you give me back my calf?"
>
>
> The young man thinks about it for a second and then says, "Okay,
> why not?"
>
>
> "You're an aide in the Obama Administration", says Bud.
>
>
> "Wow! That's correct," says the yuppie, "but how did you guess that?"
>
>
> "No guessing required." answered the cowboy. "You showed up here
> even though nobody called you; you want to get paid for an answer I
> already knew, to a question I never asked. You used millions of
> dollars worth of equipment trying to show me how much smarter than
> me you are; and you don't know a thing about how working people
> make a living - or about cows, for that matter. This is a herd of sheep.
>
>
> Now give me back my dog.



First off, Bud would have been a shepherd and not a cowboy. Second, would it not have been more fun to just let him keep the dog?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Thank you, Dr. Masters.

" Invest 93L did have tropical storm force winds, and will be re-analyzed in the off-season by NHC to see if it did indeed have enough organization to qualify as an unnamed subtropical storm. "

That's good enough for me. I just wish it were enough for everyone else. For instance, here's more recent Twitter-bashing of the NHC:

"The most galling aspect, the way they name storms in the middle of nowhere then try to justify this"..."Their arguments against the facts would not stand up in a first level meteo course at any reputable college."..."They are either in denial of the data or not looking. Just when do you see that happen in hurricane season in Fla, if not warm core!"..."I will personally debate anyone from TPC on the fact this warm core based on all the data when it hit. They are covering up"

Sigh...


To me I make notice that people aren't just trying to prove it was a Subtropical system, rather they are trying to find any excuse to bash the NHC because they are the experts, and for whatever reason there are a number of people who love to sit and little seats and judge those more knowledgeable then them. Its not just something you see here, it occurs everywhere. There is a general disrespect of others in authority, and or those who have more experience/knowledge in a field.

Everyone loved President Obama till he actually became President, now very many have a burning hate towards him, sometimes the very people who supported him. There may be a lot I disagree with that hes done, but he is my authority and President, and I respect him.

A fool is wise in his own eyes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I cant get my eyes off this site.... it is the rsoe edis emergency site. It has every major incident from fires to floods to earthquakes and even hazmat issues. Pretty cool as it is in real time. Stumbled up on it ... i think you all will like it.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Regarding Pacific-Atlantic crossovers...

Hurricane six of 1923

and...

Hurricane 10 of 1949

But we've never had a named storm that crossed over to our side(wonder if it would change names even if it kept hurricane or TS strength).

On a side note in April 3rd, 1846 a superstorm(like that in 1993)smashed into the mouth of the Mississippi from the GOM!



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From previous blog

Quoting BahaHurican:
Sorry, couldn't resist.... lol

Seriously, I only remember it seemed like yeah forever a long time, expecially taking into consideration how long QuikScat was supposed to have been done before it actually finished. It would be nice to get some new imaging technology up there to give us more detailed and sophisticated data. On top of that, if it doesn't go up for another 3-5 years, how long do we in the general public wait before we get access to info from the newest satellite?

Anyway...


Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



----------

A joint project for creating a new satellite with the next generation of equipment has been announced by NASA and the NHC. The new satellite is scheduled to be operational in 2015, at which time it will be put in orbit around Earth.[9]

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurr icane/blog/2009/11/quikscat_satellite_dies.html
^ a b c Ken Kayes (November 24, 2009). "QuikSCAT satellite dies". Sun Sentinel. Retrieved November 24, 2009.





Perhaps we should encourage StormKen to do a followup article on the status of the plan to replace Quikscat... in these times of so many budget cuts.

Now that I type this, I realize that we could encourage Dr. Masters to do an article on this, and find out "what's up" with the QuikScat program.
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7 survive 20 hours at sea off Florida Keys clinging to boat, cooler
Published: Tuesday, October 11, 2011, 10:00 AM



Eight relatives had set out to fish in less-than-ideal conditions off the Florida Keys. It was raining, seas topped 7 feet and winds were whipping up to 38 mph.


Before they knew it, two waves hit, capsizing their anchored 22-foot boat and knocking them into the sea about 3 1/2 miles offshore Saturday. Seven, including a 4-year-old, survived by clinging to their capsized vessel and a small blue cooler for nearly 20 hours, suffering exhaustion, jellyfish stings and hypothermia. A 79-year-old woman, the matriarch of the group, was missing and presumed drowned.
"When the will to live kicks in, human beings can do amazing things," Coast Guard Petty Officer Nick Ameen said.
The women grabbed the girl and the 2 ½-foot cooler. One of the men tried to rescue his mother, but she slipped through his grasp and disappeared into the water. The women said the boat turned over so quickly that there wasn't time to grab life jackets for anyone except the child, said Kendra Graves, a seaman with the Coast Guard.
Almost immediately, the two groups -- the three women and girl and three men -- drifted apart.
Nearly a day later, they were rescued when a commercial fisherman spotted the men Sunday morning and alerted the Coast Guard, which found the women and the blue cooler several miles away in the warm waters. Those rescued were taken to a hospital with non-life-threatening injuries.
Florida law requires children 6 or under on a boat 26 feet or less to wear a life jacket if the boat is moving. If the craft is anchored or docked, they don't have to wear one.
As the weather improved Sunday, fishing boat captain David Jensen headed out with customers to catch live bait. Off in the distance, he saw a large object floating in the water.
As he turned the boat to get closer look, he saw a man waving. At first, he said, he thought there was only one person holding on to the sunken boat, its bow protruding just a few feet out of the water. When he got closer, he realized there were three men.
"I tried to get them to swim to the boat, but they said they didn't know how to swim," Jensen said. "Then I had the mate throw them life jackets. One guy put on the life jacket and swam to the boat. The other two guys wouldn't get off the boat."
One of Jensen's customers jumped in and swam over. He tied the boats together, and helped the other two men, one at a time, back to Jensen's boat.
"They were exhausted. One guy overnight had lost his mother," Jensen said. "He was very visibly upset, which was a little tough because he was the one who spoke the best English."
Zaida San Jurjo Gonzalez died. Her son, Jorge Alejo Gonzalez, survived along with his wife, Tomasa Torres, the elderly woman's daughter, Elena G. Gonzalez, and her boyfriend, Juglar Riveras.
Also rescued were Jorge and Elena Gonzalez's uncle, Jose Miguel De Armas, his wife, Yunisleidy Lima Tejada, and their 4-year-old daughter, Fabiana De Armas Lima. All are from South Florida. The other survivors' ages ranged from 30 to 62.
After the men were found shortly before 9 a.m., the fishermen called the Coast Guard, who found the women. The women were hanging on to the floating cooler and started waving and yelling for help when they saw the Coast Guard boat.
All of the boaters were soon reunited, wrapped in blankets and treated for shock and hypothermia.
"They were all pretty happy to see each other," Graves said.
It wasn't clear if the boaters were aware of a small-craft advisory that had been posted early Saturday.
"They shouldn't have been out there," said Florida Fish and Wildlife spokesman Robert Dube, whose agency is investigating. "It was nasty from the get-go."
Jennifer Kay, Associated Press; Suzette Laboy, Associated Press
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Thanks Jeff...
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Could be another spinner trying if you look close in the Caribbean and heading into the Bahamas.


NAM's been consistant on a low forming in this area, but it stays well offshore. Dry air will be pushing into Florida this week, so its safe from any system in the short term.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4729
Gotta run out for a while...........everyone have a good safe day!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Model shows it too........





Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430



Could be another spinner trying if you look close in the Caribbean and heading into the Bahamas.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting 19N81W:
anyone have links to the models dr. m is talking about for early next week in the Caribbean?



Go to my blog!

TampaSpin
You will find them there!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting Cotillion:
FPB:

Link

Interesting little piece (with photos!) of glacier change on the Himalayas.

And good luck to Mexico.

Stunning! Thanks so much for sharing this.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 914
GFS has a hurricane out by the 27th and that will bring in the nation's first major cold (or even coldest so far) air of the season for late Oct. through early Nov. is the arrival time for the northern tier of the nation.

Sun. 16th has something in the southern BOC, maybe a TS.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


National Hurricane Operations Plan, Chapter 3

3.3. Numbering and Naming of Tropical and Subtropical Cyclones.

The following rules apply for tropical cyclones passing from one basin to another: Retain the
name if a tropical cyclone passes from one basin into another basin as a tropical cyclone; i.e.,
advisories are continuous. An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g.
Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of
responsibility. For unnamed tropical depressions moving from west to east across 180°, CPHC
will use the associated Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) number and indicate JTWC in
parentheses following the number. For named systems, CPHC will use the associated RSMC
Tokyo name and provide the associated JTWC number in parentheses.

Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is
assigned its original number or name. If the remnants of a former tropical cyclone regenerate in
a new basin, the regenerated tropical cyclone will be given a new designation.


thank you was trying too find that
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114024
Quoting Cotillion:



If it keeps its identity, it retains the name. If it doesn't, it may be subject to a new name.

To the second, yes, theoretically, it's possible.



nop it wont get a new name



An Atlantic–Pacific crossover hurricane is a tropical cyclone that develops in the Atlantic Ocean and moves into the Pacific Ocean, or vice versa. In recorded history, a total of seven tropical cyclones have done this. It is more common for the remnants of an Atlantic tropical cyclone to redevelop into a different storm in the Pacific; in such a scenario, they are not considered the same system.[
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114024
Quoting mopapa:
I have a dumb question - if a storm starts out in the Pacific, crosses Mexico and enters the Gulf of Mexico, does it get a new, Atlantic name, or does it keep the same name? And is it possible for a Pacific storm to ever get all the way across the Gulf of Mexico to Florida?


National Hurricane Operations Plan, Chapter 3

3.3. Numbering and Naming of Tropical and Subtropical Cyclones.

The following rules apply for tropical cyclones passing from one basin to another: Retain the
name if a tropical cyclone passes from one basin into another basin as a tropical cyclone; i.e.,
advisories are continuous. An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g.
Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of
responsibility. For unnamed tropical depressions moving from west to east across 180°, CPHC
will use the associated Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) number and indicate JTWC in
parentheses following the number. For named systems, CPHC will use the associated RSMC
Tokyo name and provide the associated JTWC number in parentheses.

Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is
assigned its original number or name. If the remnants of a former tropical cyclone regenerate in
a new basin, the regenerated tropical cyclone will be given a new designation.
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Quoting Cotillion:
FPB:

Link

Interesting little piece (with photos!) of glacier change on the Himalayas.

And good luck to Mexico.

Thanks for posting that link. That's both amazing and a bit maddening, no?
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anyone have links to the models dr. m is talking about for early next week in the Caribbean?
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.