Powerful Category 3 Hurricane Jova nears landfall in Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on October 11, 2011

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Rain bands from powerful Category 3 Hurricane Jova are already deluging the southwest coast of Mexico as the storm heads towards landfall late this afternoon between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has weakened since yesterday afternoon, with the eye no longer visible and the cloud pattern no longer as symmetric. Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the southeast managed to inject some dry air into the core of Jova that disrupted the storm's eyewall, and it is unlikely the hurricane will be able to intensify beyond its current 115 mph strength before landfall. It is more likely that Jova will weaken as it approaches land, due to the storm's small size, which makes is vulnerable to disruption when the outer portion of the circulation hits the mountains along the Mexican coast. If Jova maintains its Category 3 strength until landfall, it will rank as one of the ten most intense Pacific hurricanes to hit Mexico since record keeping began in 1949, according to a comprehensive list of Eastern Pacific hurricane landfalls at Wikipedia. However, I expect Jova's interaction with the high mountains of Mexico will knock it down to a Category 2 storm with 100 - 105 mph winds by landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards only 15 miles from the center of Jova, so a relatively small stretch of moderately to lightly-populated stretch of coast will see Jova's high winds and dangerous storm surge. A much larger swath of Mexico will see very heavy rains of 6 - 12 inches, and these rains are the primary threat from the hurricane.

The shape of the coast near Puerto Vallarta makes it difficult for a high storm surge to affect that city. Jova is passing far enough to the east of Puerto Vallarta that the winds in the Bay should be capable of elevating a surge to a height of just 1 - 2 feet above normal water levels, with perhaps a slight chance of a surge as high as 3 feet affecting the city. However, there will be high battering waves on top of the storm surge, and these waves may cause damage to ocean front property. I was in Puerto Vallarta during Hurricane Paine of 1986, and while we didn't see much of a storm surge, the coast experienced 10-foot waves that tore apart the sea wall protecting the swimming pool of the hotel I was staying at. The highest storm tide from Jova should occur near 9:55am CDT Wednesday morning, which is the time of high tide. Jova will be at its closest to Puerto Vallarta then, and is likely to be a strong tropical storm with 60 mph winds.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Jova taken at 1:40 pm EDT October 10, 2011. At the time, Jova was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Links to follow Jova
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Barra de Navidad, just north-west of Manzanillo, and will be giving us live blogs and photos from the landfall of Jova, as his power and Internet connections permit.

Manzanillo weather

>Puerto Vallarta webcam

Tropical Depression Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Tropical Depression Irwin, farther to the west, may also be a concern. The computer forecast models show that late this week, Irwin will approach the same stretch of Mexican coast Jova is affecting. However, Irwin is a weak storm that is may not survive, due to high wind shear, and may end up not bringing significant rains to Mexico.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are currently no threat areas in the Atlantic, now that Invest 93L has moved ashore over the Southeast U.S. Invest 93L did have tropical storm force winds, and will be re-analyzed in the off-season by NHC to see if it did indeed have enough organization to qualify as an unnamed subtropical storm.

The ECMWF and NOGAPS models continue to predict that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean early next week. Some of the spin and moisture for this storm could potentially come from an area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific, (Invest 99E), that is currently just offshore of the Mexico/Guatemala border. Invest 99E is expected to move inland over Central America over the next few days, bringing very heavy rains capable of causing flash flooding and mudslides to Southeast Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TomTaylor:

Hold on a minute there, sky.

The radar was not looking into the mid levels of the system. Mid levels of the troposphere are usually defined around 850/800mbs up to around 500mbs.

Look at the radar loop below and you will see the circulation is only 10 or 20 miles from the radar location (denoted by the white plus sign). At 10-20 miles (no, not 40 miles, check Google Earth if you don't believe me), the radar beam is less than 2,000 feet above the surface of the earth, which is absolutely not the mid levels of the Earth. It was looking aroud the 950mb level, which is the low levels of the atmosphere.





Regardless, surface observations found that the circulation was closed at the surface. Surface observations also support the fact that the circulation was not hanging around over land the whole time like you say.



Melbourne International Airport



Ocean Drive, Vero Beach



Forgot to post station TRDF1- Trident Pier, located in Port Canaveral. It showed a surface pressure of 999.5 mb and NNW winds of 2kt at 11:42pm, followed by a pressure of 999.9mb and W winds at 1kt at 11:48pm, then a pressure of 1000.0mb and SW winds at 6kt at 11:54pm. Closed circulation. Air temp went from 21C to 24C.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting Levi32:
I feel it is appropriate to share this response which I received from James Franklin, one of the NHC forecasters, after I inquired on the issue of 93L and why it was not named on the spot. I feel that it is ok for me to share this since they have developed this response for all questions related to 93L's treatment by the NHC.

Dear Levi,

We've gotten a few inquiries on this, and prepared the following by way of response:

During the weekend of 8-9 October, the state of Florida was affected by a large and complex weather system, one that was not designated as a tropical or subtropical cyclone operationally by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Watches, warnings, and forecasts for this system were provided by local National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), most notably WFO Melbourne and WFO Jacksonville, while marine analyses and forecasts were provided by NHC’s Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB).

There have been a number of inquiries as to whether this system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone. It is not uncommon for NHC to reclassify a system after an event based on a post-storm analysis, adding it to the historical record as an unnamed tropical or subtropical cyclone. A post-storm analysis is planned for this system to see whether it met either of the following definitions:

Tropical cyclone - A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere.

Subtropical cyclone - A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

Nature is capable of generating a wide spectrum of low-pressure systems that don’t always neatly fit into the classification systems developed by meteorologists. The weather system that affected Florida this weekend contained characteristics of both tropical and non-tropical weather systems, making its classification difficult. Because of the system’s non-tropical origins, the initial warning products on the system originated from NWS WFOs, and in fact the potential impacts of this event had been advertised in WFO products up to a week in advance.

During the afternoon of 9 October, a broad area of low pressure developed off the Florida east coast. Even before this time, gale-force winds were occurring over a large area offshore, and reached the coast by the late afternoon. In some respects the system resembled a subtropical cyclone at this time. During the evening, however, the low became better defined and strengthened near the Florida coast, briefly accompanied by a very small core of strong winds more characteristic of a tropical cyclone. These winds affected the Cape Canaveral area. During the event, WFO Melbourne issued a High Wind Warning for several coastal counties and a Storm Warning for the coastal waters -both rare issuances.

The overriding consideration for NHC not to name this system during the late afternoon or evening hours was a desire to preserve the flow of watch/warning/hazard information that had been coming from the NWS WFOs. NHC coordinated warning options with the affected WFOs throughout the day Sunday. Because the hazardous weather conditions were already occurring by the time the cyclone and its circulation had become well defined, it was agreed that users would be best served by not abruptly changing the product/warning suite to tropical/subtropical issuances, with the ultimate status of the system to be determined from a post-storm analysis.

I hope this is helpful in explaining how this system was handled.

Regards,

James
--
James L. Franklin

Branch Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center


Notice how he says that 93L exhibited both subtropical and tropical characteristics. In other words, they acknowledge that it was warm-core, and likely deserves some sort of classification, but they decided to wait until after the fact in order to avoid disrupting the flow of warning products being given to the public through the local NWS WFOs. I can understand this line of reasoning, and obviously we don't know anything about how coordination between offices works and the dynamics of communicating with the public. I'm sure they were trying to keep their best interest in mind. I fully expect them to upgrade invest 93L to an unnamed subtropical or tropical storm after post-analysis.


Thank you for sharing, Levi
Member Since: July 17, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 207
Quoting Levi32:
I feel it is appropriate to share this response which I received from James Franklin, one of the NHC forecasters, after I inquired on the issue of 93L and why it was not named on the spot. I feel that it is ok for me to share this since they have developed this response for all questions related to 93L's treatment by the NHC.

Dear Levi,

We've gotten a few inquiries on this, and prepared the following by way of response:

During the weekend of 8-9 October, the state of Florida was affected by a large and complex weather system, one that was not designated as a tropical or subtropical cyclone operationally by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Watches, warnings, and forecasts for this system were provided by local National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), most notably WFO Melbourne and WFO Jacksonville, while marine analyses and forecasts were provided by NHC%u2019s Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB).

There have been a number of inquiries as to whether this system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone. It is not uncommon for NHC to reclassify a system after an event based on a post-storm analysis, adding it to the historical record as an unnamed tropical or subtropical cyclone. A post-storm analysis is planned for this system to see whether it met either of the following definitions:

Tropical cyclone - A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere.

Subtropical cyclone - A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

Nature is capable of generating a wide spectrum of low-pressure systems that don%u2019t always neatly fit into the classification systems developed by meteorologists. The weather system that affected Florida this weekend contained characteristics of both tropical and non-tropical weather systems, making its classification difficult. Because of the system%u2019s non-tropical origins, the initial warning products on the system originated from NWS WFOs, and in fact the potential impacts of this event had been advertised in WFO products up to a week in advance.

During the afternoon of 9 October, a broad area of low pressure developed off the Florida east coast. Even before this time, gale-force winds were occurring over a large area offshore, and reached the coast by the late afternoon. In some respects the system resembled a subtropical cyclone at this time. During the evening, however, the low became better defined and strengthened near the Florida coast, briefly accompanied by a very small core of strong winds more characteristic of a tropical cyclone. These winds affected the Cape Canaveral area. During the event, WFO Melbourne issued a High Wind Warning for several coastal counties and a Storm Warning for the coastal waters -both rare issuances.

The overriding consideration for NHC not to name this system during the late afternoon or evening hours was a desire to preserve the flow of watch/warning/hazard information that had been coming from the NWS WFOs. NHC coordinated warning options with the affected WFOs throughout the day Sunday. Because the hazardous weather conditions were already occurring by the time the cyclone and its circulation had become well defined, it was agreed that users would be best served by not abruptly changing the product/warning suite to tropical/subtropical issuances, with the ultimate status of the system to be determined from a post-storm analysis.

I hope this is helpful in explaining how this system was handled.

Regards,

James
--
James L. Franklin

Branch Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center


Notice how he says that 93L exhibited both subtropical and tropical characteristics. In other words, they acknowledge that it was warm-core, and likely deserves some sort of classification, but they decided to wait until after the fact in order to avoid disrupting the flow of warning products being given to the public through the local NWS WFOs. I can understand this line of reasoning, and obviously we don't know anything about how coordination between offices works and the dynamics of communicating with the public. I'm sure they were trying to keep the public's best interest in mind. I fully expect them to upgrade invest 93L to an unnamed subtropical or tropical storm after post-analysis.


Not to quote someone who was on the other side of the fence last night but

"That;s good enough for me"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The NHC has generational experience that DIRECTLY impacts their reasoning and issuance's.









Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Um yeah 93L=dead.Move along people nothing to see here.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17095
I feel it is appropriate to share this response which I received from James Franklin, one of the NHC forecasters, after I inquired on the issue of 93L and why it was not named on the spot. I feel that it is ok for me to share this since they have developed this response for all questions related to 93L's treatment by the NHC.

Dear Levi,

We've gotten a few inquiries on this, and prepared the following by way of response:

During the weekend of 8-9 October, the state of Florida was affected by a large and complex weather system, one that was not designated as a tropical or subtropical cyclone operationally by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Watches, warnings, and forecasts for this system were provided by local National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), most notably WFO Melbourne and WFO Jacksonville, while marine analyses and forecasts were provided by NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB).

There have been a number of inquiries as to whether this system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone. It is not uncommon for NHC to reclassify a system after an event based on a post-storm analysis, adding it to the historical record as an unnamed tropical or subtropical cyclone. A post-storm analysis is planned for this system to see whether it met either of the following definitions:

Tropical cyclone - A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere.

Subtropical cyclone - A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

Nature is capable of generating a wide spectrum of low-pressure systems that don't always neatly fit into the classification systems developed by meteorologists. The weather system that affected Florida this weekend contained characteristics of both tropical and non-tropical weather systems, making its classification difficult. Because of the system's non-tropical origins, the initial warning products on the system originated from NWS WFOs, and in fact the potential impacts of this event had been advertised in WFO products up to a week in advance.

During the afternoon of 9 October, a broad area of low pressure developed off the Florida east coast. Even before this time, gale-force winds were occurring over a large area offshore, and reached the coast by the late afternoon. In some respects the system resembled a subtropical cyclone at this time. During the evening, however, the low became better defined and strengthened near the Florida coast, briefly accompanied by a very small core of strong winds more characteristic of a tropical cyclone. These winds affected the Cape Canaveral area. During the event, WFO Melbourne issued a High Wind Warning for several coastal counties and a Storm Warning for the coastal waters -both rare issuances.

The overriding consideration for NHC not to name this system during the late afternoon or evening hours was a desire to preserve the flow of watch/warning/hazard information that had been coming from the NWS WFOs. NHC coordinated warning options with the affected WFOs throughout the day Sunday. Because the hazardous weather conditions were already occurring by the time the cyclone and its circulation had become well defined, it was agreed that users would be best served by not abruptly changing the product/warning suite to tropical/subtropical issuances, with the ultimate status of the system to be determined from a post-storm analysis.

I hope this is helpful in explaining how this system was handled.

Regards,

James
--
James L. Franklin

Branch Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center


Notice how he says that 93L exhibited both non-tropical and tropical characteristics. In other words, they acknowledge that it was at least partially warm-core, and likely deserves some sort of classification, but they decided to wait until after the fact in order to avoid disrupting the flow of warning products being given to the public through the local NWS WFOs. I can understand this line of reasoning, and obviously we don't know anything about how coordination between offices works and the dynamics of communicating with the public. I'm sure they were trying to keep the public's best interest in mind. I fully expect them to upgrade invest 93L to an unnamed subtropical or tropical storm after post-analysis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robert88:


Your opinion...not the experts ;)
Really? Why did the NHC have it listed as a subtropical storm then?

From the 18z ATCF file

AL, 93, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS




No, they did not name it at this time, but they did believe it was subtropical.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm way over 93L to.


Yeah, the discussion was interesting and warranted, but there are bigger things going on right now.

Like Jova, which is about to slam into Mexico.
Member Since: July 17, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 207
93L clearly had a closed circulation, observations showed it. Those who chose to ignore the facts and blindly follow the NHC need to get some new glasses

I am one of the last to blast the NHC most of the time, but they missed the boat on this one. The impact this system had on parts of Florida is bigger then some realize.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
I see we are still discussing the mess that was 93, as it will always be remembered. It was an aborted attempt at a subtropical system. It did not obtain a clear closed circulation and should go in the pile where invests go. NHC, do NOT name this system!
It absolutely did obtain a closed surface circulation. Surface observations and radar (radar at the low levels) confirm this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robert88:
93L was a extratropical mid latitiude cyclone. It wasn't subtropical or tropical...therefore it didn't warrant a name. Dry air getting sucked into the system blew up some powerful supercell T-storms over the gulfstream which brought the winds down to the surface. If you removed all the UL energy that was down there could the system still of powered itself? Nope....because There was no anticyclone sitting over it...so the air couldn't come over the center and come out at the top.
Which is exactly why it's subtropical...subtropical meaning it is a hybrid of both tropical and extratropical processes. It had convection at the surface and was indeed a warm core system according to all AMSU satellite passes and model cyclone phase diagrams, but it was being supported by divergence aloft.
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Quoting Skyepony:


MCV can be closed at the surface. They aren't nicknamed landcanes for being midlevel..

Subtropical storms come from ULLs that make it to the surface, extratropical storms & from Mesoscale lows. The later used to be caused a neutercane.


So if it was a Subtropical Cyclone what was it bore out of? & how long was it that before you think it should have been called a Subtropical storm & what about the Low reflecting on the surface of the GOM at the same time on Oceansat?.. 93L the tiny low was wrapped up in all that, then became the dominant low after landfall..Isn't that part of the definition of a MCC & it's MCV?






While we are at it and just for fun, here is an interesting radar image of the somewhat famous MCV in May of 2009. This guy was pretty much a land-cane, but obviously was never designated a true tropical system. Stu Ostro had a good blog on it.
Link


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
I see we are still discussing the mess that was 93, as it will always be remembered. It was an aborted attempt at a subtropical system. It did not obtain a clear closed circulation and should go in the pile where invests go. NHC, do NOT name this system!
I'm way over 93L to.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17095
I see we are still discussing the mess that was 93, as it will always be remembered. It was an aborted attempt at a subtropical system. It did not obtain a clear closed circulation and should go in the pile where invests go. NHC, do NOT name this system!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robert88:


I thought for sure the CONUS would of seen a Charley or Ivan etc. The Caribbean was shut down for business. Very stable and hostile conditions down there this season. I sure didn't expect that in a neutral to La Nina season.



NOT over yet as i was just in the GOM and its still plenty warm yet. Fingers crossed!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting Skyepony:
93L was closed. I had the west winds here. The surface center was ~40miles west of what was seen on radar (midlevels). It was somewhat elongated & sloppy at the surface. The center was north of me already on land before what was on radar hit KSC, it was within a very short time of it spinning up on radar. The center was on land from nearly if not the beginning..one of the many areas to look closely at all the data. The showers streaming in from the east flew over the obviously very shallow vorticity on radar..like a MCV. It was so small & ill stacked, the west side with convection was cold, the dry air it was sucking in the east side was warm. I stood in both. The rainband was cold the dry slot that arrived the next day was warm. It was bore out of a large area with other vorticity like a MCV out of a Mesoscale Convective System. We saw the ULL reflect on the surface of the east GOM finally on Oceansat that evening..weak & broad but the center of the MCS, that died sometime in the night. East coast one got in that sweet spot next to FL that spins things up.. Maybe had it had more time over water. It was a cyclone seed, tossed on land, but I'm not sure if it wasn't anything more than a mesoscale convective vortex.

Hold on a minute there, sky.

The radar was not looking into the mid levels of the system. Mid levels of the troposphere are usually defined around 850/800mbs up to around 500mbs.

Look at the radar loop below and you will see the circulation is only 10 or 20 miles from the radar location (denoted by the white plus sign). At 10-20 miles (no, not 40 miles, check Google Earth if you don't believe me), the radar beam is less than 2,000 feet above the surface of the earth, which is absolutely not the mid levels of the Earth. It was looking aroud the 950mb level, which is the low levels of the atmosphere.





Regardless, surface observations found that the circulation was closed at the surface. Surface observations also support the fact that the circulation was not hanging around over land the whole time like you say.



Melbourne International Airport



Ocean Drive, Vero Beach

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201. Wxouttacontrol
10:43 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
just wondering if anyone has the model forecast 1 week ago, before this weekend's mesosubextraitisitisntstorm 93L to see which one was closest to what actually happened.
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
200. wunderweatherman123
10:43 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
EP102011 - Hurricane JOVA

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR)

shes maintaining herself cat 2 at landfall is likely
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1725
199. washingtonian115
10:40 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting robert88:


I thought for sure the CONUS would of seen a Charley or Ivan etc. The Caribbean was shut down for business. Very stable and hostile conditions down there this season. I sure didn't expect that in a neutral to La Nina season.
I hope we don't see it in....2012.Ahah(Bad joke don't shoot me down for it though).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17095
198. robert88
10:38 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:



I can't believe someone in the ConUs did not get one of these this year. Yes i know the season is not over but, it is on its way out now.


I thought for sure the CONUS would of seen a Charley or Ivan etc. The Caribbean was shut down for business. Very stable and hostile conditions down there this season. I sure didn't expect that in a neutral to La Nina season.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
197. TampaSpin
10:36 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:


MCV can be closed at the surface. They aren't nicknamed landcanes for being midlevel..

Subtropical storms come from ULLs that make it to the surface, extratropical storms & from Mesoscale lows. The later used to be caused a neutercane.


So if it was a Subtropical Cyclone what was it bore out of? & how long was it that before you think it should have been called a Subtropical storm & what about the Low reflecting on the surface of the GOM at the same time on Oceansat?.. 93L the tiny low was wrapped up in all that, then became the dominant low after landfall..Isn't that part of the definition of a MCC & it's MCV?






By Definition........i would say you are correct!

Mesoscale low
A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, also known as a dying frontal zone, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 50 kilometers (31 mi). The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 160 kilometers (99 mi). These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core, and in 1972 this type of subtropical cyclone was referred to as a "neutercane".



Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
196. washingtonian115
10:33 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:



I can't believe someone in the ConUs did not get one of these this year. Yes i know the season is not over but, it is on its way out now.
After the 2004 and 05 season's where we here in the U.S were getting our a** kicked by hurricanes left and right.Well we don't need to see something like that for at least ten years.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17095
195. Patrap
10:32 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
EP102011 - Hurricane JOVA

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
194. ecflweatherfan
10:29 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'll take Skye's opinion as the last word, for now. Maybe in the off-season the NHC will change the designation. In the meantime, we know that Skye certainly has the knowledge on the subject, and she has the added advantage of actually being there and feeling the weather.


Even better was my location, as I was 5 miles as the crow flies from where the center actually made landfall at Port Canaveral/Cape Canaveral (as confirmed by the NWS Melbourne in a message I sent to them via Facebook). I live just across the Banana River in Merritt Island... I noticed a marked temperature rise as the center approached the coast. The temperature went from 70 degrees at 7pm to 78 at around 11pm or so. And when I looked up in the sky... the glare from the city lights along the coast showed a counter-clockwise rotation as it passed. And I had winds veer from NE-NNE at storm force, then winds went light (less than 10 mph) for a time, then veered around to the W, then WSW as the center passed just north of me. It is from my experience in the past that a temperature rise is common with a tropical system, not sure what the temps aloft were doing though.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
193. wn1995
10:28 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/sloop-vis.html

Very, VERY nasty weather will be arriving in Mexico very shortly.
Member Since: July 17, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 207
192. Patrap
10:27 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
EP102011 - Hurricane JOVA

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


..click image for storm centered Loop




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
191. TampaSpin
10:26 PM GMT on October 11, 2011



I can't believe someone in the ConUs did not get one of these this year. Yes i know the season is not over but, it is on its way out now.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
190. robert88
10:24 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:



Mid Latitude is probably most likely and the reason why NHC did not step it up to a Storm of some type with a Name. True that even a Mid Latitude can bring the winds to the surface as we can see this over land during winter events.


Yes indeed...This is my take on 93L. It was a similar deal like the big curled up mid level latitude systems that spawned all the tornadoes this past spring. Dry air gets entrained into the system and sets off powerful T-storms. 93L just fed off the gulfstream over the ocean.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
189. washingtonian115
10:21 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Yes!!.Jova is weakning rapidly!!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17095
188. Skyepony (Mod)
10:21 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yup.


If it was closed, it was a Subtropical storm, not an MCV.


MCV can be closed at the surface. They aren't nicknamed landcanes for being midlevel..

Subtropical storms come from ULLs that make it to the surface, extratropical storms & from Mesoscale lows. The later used to be caused a neutercane.


So if it was a Subtropical Cyclone what was it bore out of? & how long was it that before you think it should have been called a Subtropical storm & what about the Low reflecting on the surface of the GOM at the same time on Oceansat?.. 93L the tiny low was wrapped up in all that, then became the dominant low after landfall..Isn't that part of the definition of a MCC & it's MCV?




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187. HurricaneHunterJoe
10:08 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I can see that. Down 5 mb to 968 mb and up 5 mph to 105 by morning. In my opinion the infrared pics in the past couple hours show a slight improvement in organization.

IMO also,seems to be trying reform her eyewall
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186. TampaSpin
10:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting Gorty:


So? I been in noreasters before (not in winter) and had wind of TS force and heavy rain, but was not deemed a TS.

NHC knows more than us.


I agree with ya, but one thing that was puzzling to me as i was watching the one bouy was it seemed to be a warm core system! As it went across as one could seem to see a rise and fall in temperature. I don't know whom is correct but, i do know that NHC will end up doing the correct thing as it will evaluate it later.
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185. HurricaneHunterJoe
10:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting OrchidGrower:
I wonder if the further southward track of Jova increases the chance that her remnant low could cross into the W. Caribbean (or Gulf).


NHC changed the track back to the north on their 5pm update
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184. Gorty
10:01 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'll take Skye's opinion as the last word, for now. Maybe in the off-season the NHC will change the designation. In the meantime, we know that Skye certainly has the knowledge on the subject, and she has the added advantage of actually being there and feeling the weather.


So? I been in noreasters before (not in winter) and had wind of TS force and heavy rain, but was not deemed a TS.

NHC knows more than us.
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183. islander101010
10:00 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting wn1995:
Jova may have weakened some, but it is still a very powerful hurricane and a horrible situation for Mexico.
its already the "wild wild west" terms my friends have given me while traveling through that area of the world
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182. CosmicEvents
9:59 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
I'll take Skye's opinion as the last word, for now. Maybe in the off-season the NHC will change the designation. In the meantime, we know that Skye certainly has the knowledge on the subject, and she has the added advantage of actually being there and feeling the weather.
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181. wn1995
9:58 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Jova may have weakened some, but it is still a very powerful hurricane and a horrible situation for Mexico.
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180. TampaSpin
9:50 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting robert88:
93L was a extratropical mid latitiude cyclone. It wasn't subtropical or tropical...therefore it didn't warrant a name. Dry air getting sucked into the system blew up some powerful supercell T-storms over the gulfstream which brought the winds down to the surface. If you removed all the UL energy that was down there could the system still of powered itself? Nope....because There was no anticyclone sitting over it...so the air couldn't come over the center and come out at the top. NHC did their job with local authorities to give plenty of warning to folks in FL. I just can't believe all the bashing towards the NHC on all the weather blogs i have been reading....geez



Mid Latitude is probably most likely and the reason why NHC did not step it up to a Storm of some type with a Name. True that even a Mid Latitude can bring the winds to the surface as we can see this over land during winter events.
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179. OrchidGrower
9:46 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
I wonder if the further southward track of Jova increases the chance that her remnant low could cross into the W. Caribbean (or Gulf).
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178. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:41 PM GMT on October 11, 2011


closer view
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177. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:35 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
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176. HuracanTaino
9:33 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting Gorty:
I am very pumped up for a potential snow storm that the GFS shows for the Northeast for the 19th. Maybe just maybe it will go coastal!
Snow storm already ,,brrrrrrr,.. wow
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175. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:26 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
NHC just moved their forecast track south for Jova
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174. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:20 PM GMT on October 11, 2011


Looks like Jova trying to reform her eyewall. She is also south of the forecast track by NHC.
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173. islander101010
9:19 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
hitting the 2011 water supply e cen fl. the no name will get one soon. hopefully a wrong name wont get retired. if that happens heads should roll
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172. OrchidGrower
9:17 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Thanks, folks.... Besides never wanting to be taken unawares by a developing tropical system, I have to confess that I'm not ready for South Florida's rainy season to come to an end yet!! (Thanks again)
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171. pottery
9:15 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
93L was closed. I had the west winds here. The surface center was ~40miles west of what was seen on radar (midlevels). It was somewhat elongated & sloppy at the surface. The center was north of me already on land before what was on radar hit KSC, it was within a very short time of it spinning up on radar. The center was on land from nearly if not the beginning..one of the many areas to look closely at all the data. The showers streaming in from the east flew over the obviously very shallow vorticity on radar..like a MCV. It was so small & ill stacked, the west side with convection was cold, the dry air it was sucking in the east side was warm. I stood in both. The rainband was cold the dry slot that arrived the next day was warm. It was bore out of a large area with other vorticity like a MCV out of a Mesoscale Convective System. We saw the ULL reflect on the surface of the east GOM finally on Oceansat that evening..weak & broad but the center of the MCS, that died sometime in the night. East coast one got in that sweet spot next to FL that spins things up.. Maybe had it had more time over water. It was a cyclone seed, tossed on land, but I'm not sure if it wasn't anything more than a mesoscale convective vortex.

Interesting...
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170. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:13 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
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169. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:12 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
Quoting robert88:


Your opinion...not the experts ;)

Yup.

Quoting Skyepony:
93L was closed. I had the west winds here. The surface center was ~40miles west of what was seen on radar (midlevels). It was somewhat elongated & sloppy at the surface. The center was north of me already on land before what was on radar hit KSC, it was within a very short time of it spinning up on radar. The center was on land from nearly if not the beginning..one of the many areas to look closely at all the data. The showers streaming in from the east flew over the obviously very shallow vorticity on radar..like a MCV. It was so small & ill stacked, the west side with convection was cold, the dry air it was sucking in the east side was warm. I stood in both. The rainband was cold the dry slot that arrived the next day was warm. It was bore out of a large area with other vorticity like a MCV out of a Mesoscale Convective System. We saw the ULL reflect on the surface of the east GOM finally on Oceansat that evening..weak & broad but the center of the MCS, that died sometime in the night. East coast one got in that sweet spot next to FL that spins things up.. Maybe had it had more time over water. It was a cyclone seed, tossed on land, but I'm not sure if it wasn't anything more than a mesoscale convective vortex.

If it was closed, it was a Subtropical storm, not an MCV.
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168. BaltimoreBrian
9:12 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
It's a cute little swirl. Who knows the GFS could be wrong, although in first 48 hours it is reliable.

The 12Z run shows the usual west Caribbean/Yucatan low pressure mess hanging around after 300 hours. This run does not make it a hurricane.
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167. Skyepony (Mod)
9:10 PM GMT on October 11, 2011
93L was closed. I had the west winds here. The surface center was ~40miles west of what was seen on radar (midlevels). It was somewhat elongated & sloppy at the surface. The center was north of me already on land before what was on radar hit KSC, it was within a very short time of it spinning up on radar. The center was on land from nearly if not the beginning..one of the many areas to look closely at all the data. The showers streaming in from the east flew over the obviously very shallow vorticity on radar..like a MCV. It was so small & ill stacked, the west side with convection was cold, the dry air it was sucking in the east side was warm. I stood in both. The rainband was cold the dry slot that arrived the next day was warm. It was bore out of a large area with other vorticity like a MCV out of a Mesoscale Convective System. We saw the ULL reflect on the surface of the east GOM finally on Oceansat that evening..weak & broad but the center of the MCS, that died sometime in the night. East coast one got in that sweet spot next to FL that spins things up.. Maybe had it had more time over water. It was a cyclone seed, tossed on land, but I'm not sure if it wasn't anything more than a mesoscale convective vortex.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.