Powerful Category 3 Hurricane Jova nears landfall in Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on October 11, 2011

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Rain bands from powerful Category 3 Hurricane Jova are already deluging the southwest coast of Mexico as the storm heads towards landfall late this afternoon between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has weakened since yesterday afternoon, with the eye no longer visible and the cloud pattern no longer as symmetric. Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the southeast managed to inject some dry air into the core of Jova that disrupted the storm's eyewall, and it is unlikely the hurricane will be able to intensify beyond its current 115 mph strength before landfall. It is more likely that Jova will weaken as it approaches land, due to the storm's small size, which makes is vulnerable to disruption when the outer portion of the circulation hits the mountains along the Mexican coast. If Jova maintains its Category 3 strength until landfall, it will rank as one of the ten most intense Pacific hurricanes to hit Mexico since record keeping began in 1949, according to a comprehensive list of Eastern Pacific hurricane landfalls at Wikipedia. However, I expect Jova's interaction with the high mountains of Mexico will knock it down to a Category 2 storm with 100 - 105 mph winds by landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards only 15 miles from the center of Jova, so a relatively small stretch of moderately to lightly-populated stretch of coast will see Jova's high winds and dangerous storm surge. A much larger swath of Mexico will see very heavy rains of 6 - 12 inches, and these rains are the primary threat from the hurricane.

The shape of the coast near Puerto Vallarta makes it difficult for a high storm surge to affect that city. Jova is passing far enough to the east of Puerto Vallarta that the winds in the Bay should be capable of elevating a surge to a height of just 1 - 2 feet above normal water levels, with perhaps a slight chance of a surge as high as 3 feet affecting the city. However, there will be high battering waves on top of the storm surge, and these waves may cause damage to ocean front property. I was in Puerto Vallarta during Hurricane Paine of 1986, and while we didn't see much of a storm surge, the coast experienced 10-foot waves that tore apart the sea wall protecting the swimming pool of the hotel I was staying at. The highest storm tide from Jova should occur near 9:55am CDT Wednesday morning, which is the time of high tide. Jova will be at its closest to Puerto Vallarta then, and is likely to be a strong tropical storm with 60 mph winds.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Jova taken at 1:40 pm EDT October 10, 2011. At the time, Jova was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Links to follow Jova
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Barra de Navidad, just north-west of Manzanillo, and will be giving us live blogs and photos from the landfall of Jova, as his power and Internet connections permit.

Manzanillo weather

>Puerto Vallarta webcam

Tropical Depression Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Tropical Depression Irwin, farther to the west, may also be a concern. The computer forecast models show that late this week, Irwin will approach the same stretch of Mexican coast Jova is affecting. However, Irwin is a weak storm that is may not survive, due to high wind shear, and may end up not bringing significant rains to Mexico.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are currently no threat areas in the Atlantic, now that Invest 93L has moved ashore over the Southeast U.S. Invest 93L did have tropical storm force winds, and will be re-analyzed in the off-season by NHC to see if it did indeed have enough organization to qualify as an unnamed subtropical storm.

The ECMWF and NOGAPS models continue to predict that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean early next week. Some of the spin and moisture for this storm could potentially come from an area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific, (Invest 99E), that is currently just offshore of the Mexico/Guatemala border. Invest 99E is expected to move inland over Central America over the next few days, bringing very heavy rains capable of causing flash flooding and mudslides to Southeast Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting bigwes6844:
nah Im in NOLA. Thats the clouds from the supposed to be sub- tropical storm in GA now.
They're dropping leaflets. So I would say they are from Jova.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Evening.
I am in NOLA. I just became a Jova's witness, as I saw some of the outflow clouds pass over my house.
nah Im in NOLA. Thats the clouds from the supposed to be sub- tropical storm in GA now.
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314. j2008
Quoting Tazmanian:



did not say any thing about Jova and did not even say any thing about the E PAC
Jova was a cat 3 so both Atlantic and EPAC have had majors already.
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Quoting j2008:

Uhh Taz we already have, called Ophellia. Sorry to burst your bubble, so how is everybody tonight? I see Jova is about to make landfall.



did not say any thing about Jova and did not even say any thing about the E PAC
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Quoting Skyepony:
The floater for 99E is aimed at the swirl in the GOM..

Is that on any surface or higher plot?
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Quoting Drakoen:


lol



Fun stuff and Good to hear Jed! As long as you study you'll do fine. Math is very important for meteorology. I can't imagine someone that doesn't like math wanting to be a meteorologist...oh wait that's an environmental scientist* :-)
lol
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310. j2008
Quoting FrankZapper:
Evening.
I am in NOLA. I just became a Jova's witness, as I saw some of the outflow clouds pass over my house.

Ohh wow that is a rotten joke!! I'm shocked to hear that Jova's outflow is al the way in NOLA. Glad to see Irwin is staying weak behind her. Ohh, and 99E moveing north maybe into GOMEX, that could be fun.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Tom~ I have no doubt the system was closed. I have a PWS in my back yard. It closed as it hit land or came on land in a very short amount of time. 950mb is not surface. I live there & know what 10-20 miles looks like. It's ~60 miles from NWS to KSC. It's near 10 miles from NWS to the Beach as the crow flies.. It was interesting watching it on wundermap. That area is littered with Personal Weather Stations. Please note the time at MLB airport that the true west wind hit.. this is when the surface low would have been due north of Melbourne on land..22:53. Now note the time at the end of the loop when radar has center still offshore 2:26..3 1/2 hrs later. By the end of the loop MLB is already havin South winds, showing the low was even farther inland. It was horribly stacked. Being that close to the radar makes it even more horribly stacked. Please realize Vero winds are in eastern time.. At around 7pm when the surface low moved N of them on land is the first we see on the radar that 93L was getting rapped up..(look farther back in time then what you posted) I'm not sure if the surface low wasn't on land from the get go which is another mark for MCV...

& wasn't that broad surface low late that night in the GOM on Oceansat from the ULL above it? Are you saying that ULL was supporting a broad surface low under it & 93L across the state at the same time?

I don't know if this will get upgraded postseason, it may or may not. There is a lot of devil in the details that need looked at cause it was very close, fast & evolved in a somewhat unusual way.. Had it had a few more hours over water or atleast not had all the cold west winds here on land while it was offshore on radar, I think it would have been named that night. I have no problems with how NWS & NHC handled it though. I lived through it & was warned accordingly.

Couple of big trees in the hood down, 2 dead oaks fell here, 3 truck loads of debris off my place. That big sign on Hibiscus where you turn to the mall is down. Saw some crooked stop signs on Babcock.

Cosmic~ Thanks

Tampa~ Taking the time to look at the details in the definitions:) We need more of that here..

IceCoast~ Thanks for the great example of a MCV. I probably refer to them as landcanes way more than I should.

Levi~ Thanks for sharing the NHC response.

I'm over 93L..I see the Cuba/Haiti blob drifted a little more west at the surface than I expected today..got all hung up on the east side of Cuba while shear came up to 20kts & blew it's mid level vort to the North..
the point was 950mbs is definitely not the mid levels of the troposphere. It's the low levels. And when recon goes out to investigate invests, depressions, or any other weak disturbance, 950-960mb is usually the flight level they operate on.

Idk what the 60 miles is about, but the center fix on that radar is around 20 miles from the radar tower.

As far as the different wind reports...well that's just that. Once again, regardless, the storm being stacked is never mentioned in the NHC definition of a subtropical cyclone, so whether or not it was stacked or not is really irrelevant. What matters is it had a closed circulation, it had tropical force winds, it had tropical (partial warm core, convection over center) and extratropical characteristics (strongest winds well removed from the center, ULL present/nearby aloft, baroclinic processes), and therefore, it met the definition of a subtropical cyclone.


Also, as I've said already, yes it met the definition of an MCV, but it also met the definition of a subtropical cyclone.
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Quoting j2008:

Uhh Taz we already have, called Ophellia. Sorry to burst your bubble, so how is everybody tonight? I see Jova is about to make landfall.
Evening.
I am in NOLA. I just became a Jova's witness, as I saw some of the outflow clouds pass over my house.
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307. j2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
not all oct is going too be the same


by looking at this could this mean a end of hurricane season early this year?

this may be the 1st time in a long time we have not had a major hurricane in OCT



Uhh Taz we already have, called Ophellia. Sorry to burst your bubble, so how is everybody tonight? I see Jova is about to make landfall.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Look at that swirl trying to grab a passing convection from JOVA.


Won't the dry air in the GOM inhibit formation?
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This is from Acapulco,too far away to show much. Radar located at Cuyutlán,which is near landfall are is down.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Coldest green cloudtops wrapping around eyewall again.
too late now to stregnthen 100mph at landfall is a good bet
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Coldest green cloudtops wrapping around eyewall again.
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302. Skyepony (Mod)
Look at that swirl trying to grab a passing convection from JOVA.
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301. Skyepony (Mod)
The floater for 99E is aimed at the swirl in the GOM..
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Return of Hermine?

Good Night everyone.
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Quoting Drakoen:


If you transfer in having already taken Calc 3 you will be fine (and probably won't be "behind"). Calc 3 is cool, towards the end you might make some connections with vector fields, the curl, and divergence, etc.


Yeah I looked ahead in what appeared to be applicable to meteorology, because my Calculus text book includes all 3 Calculus periods I saw some things on vector fields and divergence/convergence. I saw a problem involving vector fields that looked similar to a low pressure area.
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10E/H/J/C2
MARK
19.05,-105.3
APPROACHING LANDFALL
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting SouthALWX:
I hate math and am a Junior meteorology student..lol ... "A" in diff EQ thus far. It's actually much more enjoyable than the calc series atleast to me.


I'm in ODE as well, and doing great too, although I think the stuff we are learning is pretty straight forward and systematic.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Thanks! Yeah, its funny how life is, I got down about being behind in math for making mistakes earlier. However, I realized that the extra hard work its taking to make up for earlier mistakes will be a benefit for me later on so it all works out. Also, FSU recommends completing Calc 3 before transferring with an AA so after being behind I will have caught up, because i plan on transferring there for next Fall, and I will be taking Cal 3 this spring, so just in time!

I actually like the looks of Calc 3, it looks very interesting, less pure math and more scientific application, that's the way I like it!


If you transfer in having already taken Calc 3 you will be fine (and probably won't be "behind"). Calc 3 is cool, towards the end you might make some connections with vector fields, the curl, and divergence, etc.
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CENTER OF CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE JOVA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...
8:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 11
Location: 19.0°N 105.2°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: NNE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb

she will make landfall probably with 30 to 60 minutes
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Quoting Drakoen:


Huh? Every time you write and dy/dx you should thank Leibniz.


Oh I knew he was well involved with Calculus, I just forgot to what degree he was. My memory is usually pretty good with history, but I'm not very well sure of math history.
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I hate math and am a Junior meteorology student..lol ... "A" in diff EQ thus far. It's actually much more enjoyable than the calc series atleast to me.
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Quoting Drakoen:


lol



Fun stuff and Good to hear Jed! As long as you study you'll do fine. Math is very important for meteorology. I can't imagine someone that doesn't like math wanting to be a meteorologist...oh wait that's an environmental scientist* :-)


Thanks! Yeah, its funny how life is, I got down about being behind in math for making mistakes earlier. However, I realized that the extra hard work its taking to make up for earlier mistakes will be a benefit for me later on so it all works out. Also, FSU recommends completing Calc 3 before transferring with an AA so after being behind I will have caught up, because i plan on transferring there for next Fall, and I will be taking Cal 3 this spring, so just in time!

I actually like the looks of Calc 3, it looks very interesting, less pure math and more scientific application, that's the way I like it!
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291. Skyepony (Mod)
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290. Skyepony (Mod)
RAMSDIS has that Cuba blob on a floater.
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In all the math classes it is always Newton invented Calculus period. Both Newton AND Leibniz invited Calculus, and others have made great contributions.
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not all oct is going too be the same


by looking at this could this mean a end of hurricane season early this year?

this may be the 1st time in a long time we have not had a major hurricane in OCT


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287. Skyepony (Mod)
JOVA on MIMIC. Just about making landfall somewhere around Zapata & Careyes.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
at the 11pm advisory do u think they will confirm jova has made landfall?


No. It hasn't quite made landfall yet. It will soon, though.

I'm out. Goodnight everyone.
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at the 11pm advisory do u think they will confirm jova has made landfall?
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Well, not much is coming to mind right now about Leibniz. However, Newton essentially did invent calculus but it wasn't really in a way that could be adopted for outside use. Rather, it was a form of Calculus that he could use himself and that's about it. But, obviously it all spread from there.


Huh? Every time you write and dy/dx you should thank Leibniz.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
So Newton invented Calculus I and Leibniz invented Calculus II, right? I'm just being silly obviously.


lol

Quoting Jedkins01:


We are finishing up chapter 8, which includes partial fraction decomposition, trigonometric substitution, and a return to the limit concept.

The reason I say love/hate relationship is that I was a fool when I was younger about math, in that I was home schooled and my mom got me way ahead of most kids in math knowing that I loved science, especially meteorology. However being succumbed by youthful stupidity I developed a really bad attitude towards math, and avoided it for my last 2 years in high school altogether. As a result of ignoring math for a while, when I got into college I signed up for courses I shouldn't have taken because I didn't really know the material that well nor was I mature enough to take them on even though I passed high enough in the math entrance exam. My bad attitudes and lack of practice early on have me playing catch up.

However, what I do like, is that I'm starting to really come around with it real recently, and I'm excited to learn it better in order to enjoy the MET courses more.


Fun stuff and Good to hear Jed! As long as you study you'll do fine. Math is very important for meteorology. I can't imagine someone that doesn't like math wanting to be a meteorologist...oh wait that's an environmental scientist* :-)
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
So Newton invented Calculus I and Leibniz invented Calculus II, right? I'm just being silly obviously.


Well, not much is coming to mind right now about Leibniz. However, Newton essentially did invent calculus but it wasn't really in a way that could be adopted for outside use. Rather, it was a form of Calculus that he could use himself and that's about it. But, obviously it all spread from there.
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My father was an engineer.
I did not inherit that gene.
Anyway, I hope everyone had a great day.
The heat is back on here in Florida, though a nice shower just came through so maybe that will cool things off again.
guten nacht
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Quoting Drakoen:


I thought Calculus 2 was fun. I'm assuming you're not even in the thick of it yet. Wait till you get to polar coordinates, tests for convergence, and series representations.


We are finishing up chapter 8, which includes partial fraction decomposition, trigonometric substitution, and a return to the limit concept.

The reason I say love/hate relationship is that I was a fool when I was younger about math, in that I was home schooled and my mom got me way ahead of most kids in math knowing that I loved science, especially meteorology. However being succumbed by youthful stupidity I developed a really bad attitude towards math, and avoided it for my last 2 years in high school altogether. As a result of ignoring math for a while, when I got into college I signed up for courses I shouldn't have taken because I didn't really know the material that well nor was I mature enough to take them on even though I passed high enough in the math entrance exam. My bad attitudes and lack of practice early on have me playing catch up.

However, what I do like, is that I'm starting to really come around with it real recently, and I'm excited to learn it better in order to enjoy the MET courses more.
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So Newton invented Calculus I and Leibniz invented Calculus II, right? I'm just being silly obviously.
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278. Skyepony (Mod)
Puerto Vallarta Web Cam

Changes every ten seconds. They keep changing views too. Seen alot of people out.
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As the norm of the partition becomes infinitely small we arrive at the Reimann integral.
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It was comma-shaped.
We had a temperature drop here and strong winds, like a noreaster for about a week.
It was a complicated system.
But considering it occurred in lower latitudes, maybe it deserves something else. dunno.
Out of my depth here.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Calculus 2, what a love hate relationship I have with it...


I thought Calculus 2 was fun. I'm assuming you're not even in the thick of it yet. Wait till you get to polar coordinates, tests for convergence, and series representations.
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Calculus 2, what a love hate relationship I have with it...
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Quoting Chicklit:
If 93L exhibited both extratropical and tropical characteristics; the latter was for a brief time and sporadically, and the dominant nature of the system was the former imo. But what do I know...nuthin. However, jumping up and down all over the NHC because a system briefly exhibits one or another characteristic and is not 'named' is presumptuous and perhaps even naive.

You mean subtropical?
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If 93L exhibited both extratropical and tropical characteristics; the latter was for a brief time and sporadically, and the dominant nature of the system was the former imo. But what do I know...nuthin. However, jumping up and down all over the NHC because a system briefly exhibits one or another characteristic and is not 'named' is presumptuous and perhaps naive.
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its alright guys thanks. i just made a blog entry so if you guys wanna check it out its posted :P
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Pathetic...
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
hey do you know any avaliable radars where jova is making landfall? also its been since 2006 since the e pac has gotten 9 or more hurricanes :P


I know its not for me, but I looked and I couldn't find anything
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THE LATEST
*Images are clickable for magnified version (images can be further magnified in Link Window by clicking anywhere on them)

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Quoting weatherh98:



looks like 3 ppl on tonight
And they all have each other on ignore.

Does anybody here know how a meadow evolves through stages until finally the tall trees , usually of one species, take over and smother out the other species? Well that has happened on this blog too. And as in the forest of old diseased trees, lightening must come and burn down the old growth and allow the sunshine to reach the ground again.

Yes it is quiet in the forest and on the blog tonight!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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