Powerful Category 3 Hurricane Jova nears landfall in Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on October 11, 2011

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Rain bands from powerful Category 3 Hurricane Jova are already deluging the southwest coast of Mexico as the storm heads towards landfall late this afternoon between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has weakened since yesterday afternoon, with the eye no longer visible and the cloud pattern no longer as symmetric. Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the southeast managed to inject some dry air into the core of Jova that disrupted the storm's eyewall, and it is unlikely the hurricane will be able to intensify beyond its current 115 mph strength before landfall. It is more likely that Jova will weaken as it approaches land, due to the storm's small size, which makes is vulnerable to disruption when the outer portion of the circulation hits the mountains along the Mexican coast. If Jova maintains its Category 3 strength until landfall, it will rank as one of the ten most intense Pacific hurricanes to hit Mexico since record keeping began in 1949, according to a comprehensive list of Eastern Pacific hurricane landfalls at Wikipedia. However, I expect Jova's interaction with the high mountains of Mexico will knock it down to a Category 2 storm with 100 - 105 mph winds by landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards only 15 miles from the center of Jova, so a relatively small stretch of moderately to lightly-populated stretch of coast will see Jova's high winds and dangerous storm surge. A much larger swath of Mexico will see very heavy rains of 6 - 12 inches, and these rains are the primary threat from the hurricane.

The shape of the coast near Puerto Vallarta makes it difficult for a high storm surge to affect that city. Jova is passing far enough to the east of Puerto Vallarta that the winds in the Bay should be capable of elevating a surge to a height of just 1 - 2 feet above normal water levels, with perhaps a slight chance of a surge as high as 3 feet affecting the city. However, there will be high battering waves on top of the storm surge, and these waves may cause damage to ocean front property. I was in Puerto Vallarta during Hurricane Paine of 1986, and while we didn't see much of a storm surge, the coast experienced 10-foot waves that tore apart the sea wall protecting the swimming pool of the hotel I was staying at. The highest storm tide from Jova should occur near 9:55am CDT Wednesday morning, which is the time of high tide. Jova will be at its closest to Puerto Vallarta then, and is likely to be a strong tropical storm with 60 mph winds.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Jova taken at 1:40 pm EDT October 10, 2011. At the time, Jova was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Links to follow Jova
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Barra de Navidad, just north-west of Manzanillo, and will be giving us live blogs and photos from the landfall of Jova, as his power and Internet connections permit.

Manzanillo weather

>Puerto Vallarta webcam

Tropical Depression Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Tropical Depression Irwin, farther to the west, may also be a concern. The computer forecast models show that late this week, Irwin will approach the same stretch of Mexican coast Jova is affecting. However, Irwin is a weak storm that is may not survive, due to high wind shear, and may end up not bringing significant rains to Mexico.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are currently no threat areas in the Atlantic, now that Invest 93L has moved ashore over the Southeast U.S. Invest 93L did have tropical storm force winds, and will be re-analyzed in the off-season by NHC to see if it did indeed have enough organization to qualify as an unnamed subtropical storm.

The ECMWF and NOGAPS models continue to predict that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean early next week. Some of the spin and moisture for this storm could potentially come from an area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific, (Invest 99E), that is currently just offshore of the Mexico/Guatemala border. Invest 99E is expected to move inland over Central America over the next few days, bringing very heavy rains capable of causing flash flooding and mudslides to Southeast Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.

Jeff Masters

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This might be the slowest i ever seen this blog for October. So many bloggers no longer are here......very sad!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Man, that "un-named" storm (was it 93L?) that went through N. FL last weekend really had some high winds! A friend of mine who lives in Jacksonville, FL sent me some pictures of a large tree that fell on his roof. Here's one of those...

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Dr M just put up a NEW BLOG !!!
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Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Another hot one in store here today.
Yesterday HeatIndex peaked at 105 F.
Not very nice.

Saw a vid. today that shows that the Chinese have developed a Drill Bit that will drill a square hole.
Fantastic!

Now we know what we can do with all these round pegs we been saving up.....
Should be great for this blog, too.

heheheheh
,didd you see one of our universities has invemted a cloaking device,weeeeelcome to te future,now for the jetson mobile..
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Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Another hot one in store here today.
Yesterday HeatIndex peaked at 105 F.
Not very nice.

Saw a vid. today that shows that the Chinese have developed a Drill Bit that will drill a square hole.
Fantastic!

Now we know what we can do with all these round pegs we been saving up.....
Should be great for this blog, too.

heheheheh



Link

looks like the chuck is causing the bit to go corner to corner... say, as opposed to the bit itself. Certainly not a mortise bit. Interesting.
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Quoting KeysieLife:
WOW Jason! Look TS Irwin totally destroys Mexico!



ROFLMAO...thanks for the great comment. I so enjoy the humor of this blog.

Good morning to all. Bright and sunny is South FL. No rain predicted. Hopefully, we have some time to dry out before anything else MIGHT affect us down the road.

Keeping those folks in Mexico in my prayers. They could possibly get a double whammy. I know how that feels after Jeanne and Frances.
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
Someone at the NHC must have made really weak coffee today...
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WOW Jason! Look TS Irwin totally destroys Mexico!

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Quoting stillwaiting:
wow,a suprise tropical tehjaunapecker!!!

lol
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 924
wow,a suprise tropical tehjaunapecker!!!
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Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Another hot one in store here today.
Yesterday HeatIndex peaked at 105 F.
Not very nice.

Saw a vid. today that shows that the Chinese have developed a Drill Bit that will drill a square hole.
Fantastic!

Now we know what we can do with all these round pegs we been saving up.....
Should be great for this blog, too.

heheheheh


OK...this kinda thing is the real reason I come to this blog...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning.
Another hot one in store here today.
Yesterday HeatIndex peaked at 105 F.
Not very nice.

Saw a vid. today that shows that the Chinese have developed a Drill Bit that will drill a square hole.
Fantastic!

Now we know what we can do with all these round pegs we been saving up.....
Should be great for this blog, too.

heheheheh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
after I lost hope for TD 12....... now TD 12
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Good morning everyone! Went back and read the blog from last night. Some of our student bloggers were talking in advanced math language, one I don't even marginally speak. They linked it to meteorology study. So as a good morning math joke at my level (one your 8 year old will like),

Q. Why is 6 afraid of 7?
A. Because 7 8 9

Have a great day on the blog.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 924
Quoting TampaSpin:
I'm really tired of all the bashing of the National Hurricane Center. LET'S JUST STOP IT NOW! Most on here are speaking out that have NO IDEA of the Data and even those that think they have all the Data don't even know how to analyze it correctly. I for sure am not qualified by any means to say this should be named and even the ones that claim to be METS on here are probably not qualified to do so either without the Complete DATA needed. Let the NHC do their jobs and if it qualifies to be Named they will do so later. ENOUGH!

Why? We don't have anything else to do.

We're not arguing, we're debating...well, at least, most of us are.
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Checkout the blowoff Higher clouds off Jova coming in to Florida!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
I'm really tired of all the bashing of the National Hurricane Center. LET'S JUST STOP IT NOW! Most on here are speaking out that have NO IDEA of the Data and even those that think they have all the Data don't even know how to analyze it correctly. I for sure am not qualified by any means to say this should be named and even the ones that claim to be METS on here are probably not qualified to do so either without the Complete DATA needed. Let the NHC do their jobs and if it qualifies to be Named they will do so later. ENOUGH!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 93.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INLAND IN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
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345. MahFL
Hi all, I see some drama on the blog.....
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Seems like every year, at some point I post a copy of the NHC Mission statement... I will bold a part I think some people forget:


Mission
(Why We Exist)

To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic

efficiency
by issuing the best watches, warnings,

forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical

weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards.

Vision
(What We Hope to Achieve)

To be America's calm, clear and trusted

voice in the eye of the storm,

and, with our partners, enable communities

to be safe from tropical weather threats.

================================

There have been scholarly papers written on the "cost per mile" to the economy caused by Hurricane warnings. I am confident that costs are incurred due to lost productivity etc. even from "Tropical storm warnings". In years past, the NHC suffered very strong criticism by both the Bahamas and the Florida Keys (two that I know of) for substantial economic damage done to their tourist based economies, after warnings were issued for systems which were "marginal".

It behooves the forecasters... since it IS a part of the official Mission Statement, to take economic and other factors into consideration when naming a system. Ivory Tower meteorologists may want an exact criteria to be followed in naming systems, however, in my opinion, the NHC MUST take other factors into consideration... and sort out any questionable definition details in later analysis.


Well said. Along those lines, just a few weeks ago the NHC felt confident enough in its forecast that they did NOT issue hurricane warnings and watches for coastal Florida and points north for hurricane Irene. I recall that it was said that they had the confidence to trust the models and therefore held off on the expanded watches/warnings. One storm savings of somewhere near 200 millions dollars. The expenditures that have brought these improvements in forecasting are paying off and THAT can be used to help us get some funding for replacing satellites.
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Quoting robert88:
Good morning. Very interesting stuff i read from earlier. It seems the NHC might decide to upgrade in the postseason. It was a very complex system and it could go either way. That is why i say just leave it alone. IMO the evidence was not strong enough to say it was purely subtropical for a named storm. Will I be mad if they upgrade? No way. This was a very unusual setup off the EC of FL. I just hate how people attack each other and bash the NHC before really digesting every detail in place. I am done talking about 93L myself. It's time to move on. It will be very interesting to read the postseason results from the NHC. ;)
west wind here wish they could have a board meeting today how hard can it be? its not out of the question the wrong name might have to be retired if they dont hurry up.
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interesting little epac system making landfall s coast of mex might make it over in the west carib. and run over hispanola cuba s bahamas last wk gfs had it making landfall over w. nicaraqua
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Good Morning
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Nam 84 hours.
Western Caribbean Low.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6818
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
he guys what intensity did jova make landfall? cat 2?


85kts. I guess u don't go to the NHC site and read their public release and discussion. I always go there first for storm updates.
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he guys what intensity did jova make landfall? cat 2?
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Good morning from S.W. Florida

NAM is looking very interesting this morning with a nicely formed Low moving up through the western Caribbean in 3 days.

GFS also shows some activity in the same region in 3 days, but doesn't develop it.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6818
The GFS showing a storm in the GOM on the 00Z run. A long ways out there.
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2006 was the last time. Only ALBERTO was in the gulf that year. It did however hit florida.
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Remember 2007 had only 2 majors and 6 hurricanes. Of course the majors were 5s. We have passed them in named storms and majors. Only one more hurricane to tie that.

On another note. We havn't had a hurricane in the gulf of mexico this year. We normally do have one but the only storms its had is HARVEY, ARLENE, NATE, DON, and LEE.
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Good morning. Very interesting stuff i read from earlier. It seems the NHC might decide to upgrade in the postseason. It was a very complex system and it could go either way. That is why i say just leave it alone. IMO the evidence was not strong enough to say it was purely subtropical for a named storm. Will I be mad if they upgrade? No way. This was a very unusual setup off the EC of FL. I just hate how people attack each other and bash the NHC before really digesting every detail in place. I am done talking about 93L myself. It's time to move on. It will be very interesting to read the postseason results from the NHC. ;)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
not all oct is going too be the same


by looking at this could this mean a end of hurricane season early this year?

this may be the 1st time in a long time we have not had a major hurricane in OCT




We already had a major hurricane in October - Ophelia.
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Surprise TD in the EPAC.
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...
2:00 AM PDT Wed Oct 12
Location: 14.7°N 93.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
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no guard in here? lol
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Quoting TomTaylor:
MJO is on it's way Taz

At least according to the model forecasts





ok well have too see then
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115079
Quoting Tazmanian:




hmmm with that kind of wind shear out there you nevere no


and where thta MOJO evere one was talking about oops?
MJO is on it's way Taz

At least according to the model forecasts

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
327. j2008
Night everyone, got a long day tomorrow. Stay safe.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




hmmm with that kind of wind shear out there you nevere no


and where thta MOJO evere one was talking about oops?
Yea, some experts built up this MJO as if it was going to be a big one. Every time they do that it seems like the MJO disappoints. VERY inexact science, if you ask me.
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325. j2008
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
FEEL THE LOVEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!

Ohh yea, tons of it, LOL. Looks like its been a slow day, only 300+ posts so far......wow EPAC really isnt popular is it...
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FEEL THE LOVEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!
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323. j2008
Quoting Tazmanian:




hmmm with that kind of wind shear out there you nevere no


and where thta MOJO evere one was talking about oops?

Yea tru, we wont kno until the season ends.... I think MJO should be in the atlantic by the weekend. Truthfully I have not heard anything about it lately, so Idk what its gonna do.
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Taz, please don't evere become a diplomat. I fear your carefully worded statements would start WW3. :)
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321. j2008
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
think pacific has had 5-6 majors this year

Yea they have had a lot, about 80% of the storms have become hurricanes and 50% became Majors
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Quoting j2008:

Yea calm down, I totally misread your comment, I was just asking everybody bout Jova too, I've been really slow to catch on to things today. Definatly may have seen the last MH for this year but it isnt the end of the season yet, I think we could eek out a couple more hurricanes maybe....




hmmm with that kind of wind shear out there you nevere no


and where thta MOJO evere one was talking about oops?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115079
319. j2008
Quoting Tazmanian:




you miss read my commet i said that hurricane season could be done with now with the kind of wind shear we had in the Atlantic all so Ophelia could be are last major of the season




READ MY LIPS I DID NOT EVEN SAY A WORD ABOUT THE E PAC AND ALL SO I WAS NOT EVEN TALKING ABOUT Jova




ALL SO EVERE ONE READ MY LIPS MY NEW RULES READ MY COMMETS CAREFUL AND DONT Quote ME IF YOU CANT UNDER STAN WHAT I THIS SAID


THIS IS WHY NEXT SEASON I MAY NOT EVEN BE ON HERE AM GETING SO SICK OF EVERE ONE MISS READING MY COMMETS


WHERE IN COMMET 288 I SAID THE E PAC AND Jova???



and yes i will admin it in commet 288 Ophelia could be are last major hurricane in the Atlantic if wind shear dos not lower soon'


the Atlantic is acting more like winter time wind shear out there a little ealy

Yea calm down, I totally misread your comment, I was just asking everybody bout Jova too, I've been really slow to catch on to things today. Definatly may have seen the last MH for this year but it isnt the end of the season yet, I think we could eek out a couple more hurricanes maybe....
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Quoting j2008:
Jova was a cat 3 so both Atlantic and EPAC have had majors already.
think pacific has had 5-6 majors this year
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Quoting bigwes6844:
nah Im in NOLA. Thats the clouds from the supposed to be sub- tropical storm in GA now.
They're dropping leaflets. So I would say they are from Jova.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.