Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

Share this Blog
19
+

A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 608 - 558

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Jova now Cat 2:

EP, 10, 2011101000, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1076W, 85, 975, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1008, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOVA, D,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
The rain is cold. I want a long sleeve when I'm out there, even out of the rain. It's Subtropical.


I agree. I was in it all night last night for 8 hours. Word to the wise, don't wear leather flip flops to an amusement park if its going to rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AL, 93, 2011101000, , BEST, 0, 280N, 800W, 40, 1005, SS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Member of my family just called, said he lost his fence and will probably loose power soon. He lives north of Melbourne.


adding thunder and lightening to the mix now. Anyone think the worst will stay offshore or will it come in around the cape? Seems like we've been waiting for it for hours now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's coming
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
looks like our segom aoi,could be trying to organize a bit after all,maybe 94l???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
601. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Chicklit:
It looks to want to come ashore at Canaveral.


I've been thinking they'll get the brunt.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

93L has visited:
West Palm Beach-Check
Vero Beach-Check
Melbourne-Check
Next Stop: NASA
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1002mb and 50mph sustained winds...

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
598. Skyepony (Mod)
There's been a lack of surface obs.. That 2.5 & the ball of convection it is starting to form should help. A-train is due for a good pass, though kinda close to land to depend on scatterometer. Should pass the buoys. Gale warning, flood warnings & all are out. Looking at radar & remembering that's mid level & then satellite shows this is horribly stacked..

The OSCAT was interesting with the weak circulation showing up in the SE GOM. Should help draw 93L to land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It looks to want to come ashore at Canaveral.
Link
weakening flag on
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
This Florida storm has been really disappointing for us here in the Panhandle. Lots of wind, 32mph on my WMIII, but not a drop of rain so far.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Can't think of any with the limited amount buoy data I can recall. But just playing devils advocate that it may not be as simple as it appears due to other factors.


You also have to consider that almost every buoy graph of a tropical cyclone has been when the cyclone is moving. It's not like 93L's buoy graph is any different.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Use this link

North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks on the weather underground website
thanks.... does anyone know if i might see ts winds in seminole/ west volusia county???? ( later tonight)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member of my family just called, said he lost his fence and will probably loose power soon. He lives north of Melbourne.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
592. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting Fishaholic25fl:
why wont underground throw it up as a update


Use this link

North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks on the weather underground website
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Questionable.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:

Drak, what's your prognosis? Subtropical or no?


It is subtropical. Whether or not there is enough organization is in question.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
u guys think that nasty stuff offshore will make it inland?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




????????????
it says updated 4pm still under the invest lol. just would love to see a official track yah know :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is most likely a 60mph STS

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting Drakoen:
Ocean Drive, Vero Beach, FL

Drak, what's your prognosis? Subtropical or no?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
Ocean Drive, Vero Beach, FL

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
583. MahFL
I'm in NE FL and I have the day off tomorrow so I can watch the STS all day :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Fishaholic25fl:
why wont underground throw it up as a update




????????????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This isn't good for Haiti.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Skyepony:
The rain is cold. I want a long sleeve when I'm out there, even out of the rain. It's Subtropical.


Hi - the rain was noticeably cold here in the Keys yesterday as well. Felt like I was in Yellowstone in the summer!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
is it me or is it (sts?) turning more north
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


No, but can you show me a pressure vs. time graph that looks like that and wasn't in a warm-core cyclone?


Can't think of any with the limited amount buoy data I can recall. But just playing devils advocate that it may not be as simple as it appears due to other factors.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Fishaholic25fl:
Where's the 8pm update!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



go find it on the nhc site
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR
DATA FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...IT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY
MORNING...AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTH
FLORIDA BY EARLY TUESDAY. AS LONG AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER
WATER...THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND MONDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INLUDING WATCHES OR
WARNINGS...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
why wont underground throw it up as a update
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gotta run; preps 4 work week to get done... I'll likely check in around 11.... just in case... lol

Otherwise, a very good night to all, and have an excellent week. [hopefully disaster free]
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Well, I didn't say that it was wind-driven surge from the system off Florida. We've had sustained easterly winds for days, and they were part of the larger synoptic pattern. I dont think the winds this winds are being substantially altered by the system near Florida.


you got my vote.
we have had about the same conditions for over a week now with the exception of intensity.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
This is still with us, surprisingly:
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Skyepony:
The rain is cold. I want a long sleeve when I'm out there, even out of the rain. It's Subtropical.
I was going to say that the image I posted a few posts back did look like a TS, but your spotter report along with your understanding trumps what it look like. Nevertheless, it should have a name. Sub or regular tropical.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well a least it has the blog moving!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look at that...2.5

09/2345 UTC 28.4N 80.2W ST2.5 93L -- Atlantic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Wondering if it might be partly an artifact of the way the data was sampled? At face value, it may look like a characteristic that is almost exclusive to tropical systems, but perhaps the system's rate of strengthening or movement changed, which caused the apparently change in rate of fall. It was not taking an instantaneous slice...


No, but can you show me a pressure vs. time graph that looks like that and wasn't in a warm-core cyclone?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting Skyepony:


I've got 1004.3mb..

Tom Sorrels on. 60mph, trees down, power outages.


Mine is an antique, so we'll go with yours :) Antique or not, it did drop a full mb in one hour. Why is the NHC calling it a 1007 mb low out in the Atlantic in their 8pm discussion?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's paralleling the coast.

Classify it already!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Fishaholic25fl:
Where's the 8pm update!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR
DATA FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...IT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY
MORNING...AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTH
FLORIDA BY EARLY TUESDAY. AS LONG AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER
WATER...THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND MONDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INLUDING WATCHES OR
WARNINGS...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
565. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Google Earth display "Subtropical" and there is a note that Dvorak number is T2.5
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Where's the 8pm update!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
The rain is cold. I want a long sleeve when I'm out there, even out of the rain. It's Subtropical.
Has it been cooler than average there this last week, Skye? I fancy we've had wx more like late Oct / early Nov of late. i.e. long sleeves in the early mornings or if it rains...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
I'm sorry but this does not happen unless you're dealing with a warm-core cyclone in the tropics. Watch for a wind shift at the buoy after the center passes. If we get that, then the NHC has zero excuses.


Wondering if it might be partly an artifact of the way the data was sampled? At face value, it may look like a characteristic that is almost exclusive to tropical systems, but perhaps the system's rate of strengthening or movement changed, which caused the apparently change in rate of fall. It was not taking an instantaneous slice...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
561. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting surfsidesindy:


Our barometer in Merritt Island dropped from 1004 to 1003 within an hour earlier tonight.


I've got 1004.3mb..

Tom Sorrels on. 60mph, trees down, power outages.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
I'm sorry but this does not happen unless you're dealing with a warm-core cyclone in the tropics. Watch for a wind shift at the buoy after the center passes. If we get that, then the NHC has zero excuses.



If there's a windshift, the NHC will classify it. They're honestly probably watching it as closely as we are.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
vote 93L is:
A: nothing
b: STS (people at nhc have to be fired):P
c: TS (people at nhc have to be fired) :P
im going with B for now but it soon could be C the buoys tell the whole story yet the NHC doesnt want to believe it..
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1727
558. Skyepony (Mod)
The rain is cold. I want a long sleeve when I'm out there, even out of the rain. It's Subtropical.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 608 - 558

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
26 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron