Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

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A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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658. j2008
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Floater's up.

Bahamas area looks pretty intense, might see something form form it. Ohh, and the area south of Haiti looks pretty interesting too. Anybody else think this is gonna be a wild week??? IDK why NHC still has 93 at 30%, from what I'm hearing we should have SS Rina pretty soon, JMO though.
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Quoting airforceone:
TampaSpin, can you post a link to your website? I'd like to check it out. Thanks.


I can't do that, sorry cause i would be banned!
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ATCF just updated the 93L file, changing all the "SS" classifications to "LO":

AL, 93, 2011101000, , BEST, 0, 280N, 800W, 40, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 250, 250, 0, 225, 1009, 250, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Sustained winds at the St. Augustine lighthouse (station SAUF) jumped about 6 knots in the past hour or so pushing them above TS strength...power just flickered. Dog just whimpered. Beer just opened.
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Conditions at 41009 as of
(8:50 pm EDT on 10/09/2011)
0050 GMT on 10/10/2011:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 28.0 m/s
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1000.6 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -8.0 mb ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 25.7 °C
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Quoting airforceone:
TampaSpin, can you post a link to your website? I'd like to check it out. Thanks.


just click on his name it will take ya there
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4227
Floater's up.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
TampaSpin, can you post a link to your website? I'd like to check it out. Thanks.
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Hey all,

All heck breaking loose in Daytona Beach. Much, much worse than this afternoon. Signs being blown out on A1A, tree limbs everywhere.

I live on the ocean and need some advice. I looked on the radar and it sure looks like a cyclone is forming near the Cape. I even see banding! Anyway, do you think it will get worse before it gets better. I need to know if I should bug out?

Have video if anyone can tell me how to post it...
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This deserves to be named period!

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
647. j2008
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That fetch of moisture in the Caribbean has been strong all day...the MJO must be returning with a vengeance this time!

MJO should be rideing in with Jova, should be in the Atlantic by the time she makes landfall.
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Evening everyone...TampaSpin I agree..looks like a tiny spin sw of tampa area..
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hey Tampa, just wanted to say I really enjoy your site!


Hey Teddy. Thanks! Keep up your watchdog watch....We can always count on you keep us up to date as to what is going on. Thanks
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Quoting TampaSpin:
For those wanting i have now put up the floaters up on 93L on the website. A very strong circulation is starting on the Western side of Florida also. I believe it might actually be the more organized of the two.

You put up the floater on the SSD site? You work for them? Can you relay the message that 93L is a STS? Please and Thank You!! ;)
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
This isn't good for Haiti.
That fetch of moisture in the Caribbean has been strong all day...the MJO must be returning with a vengeance this time!
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AL932011 - INVEST


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



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surface trough now initialized in the Gulf as well, so I would say Tampa may be correct here

this is a very complex weather event going on
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7686
why does it show in my forcast for cocoa, fl zip code 32926 it shows for monday and tuesday tropical storm 93?
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
Quoting TampaSpin:
For those wanting i have now put up the floaters up on 93L on the website. A very strong circulation is starting on the Western side of Florida also. I believe it might actually be the more organized of the two.


Hey Tampa, just wanted to say I really enjoy your site!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24019
For those wanting i have now put up the floaters up on 93L on the website. A very strong circulation is starting on the Western side of Florida also. I believe it might actually be the more organized of the two.
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624.

People bashing the blog because it doesn't live up to their standards? Check.

Goodbye then!

Back to the tropics. Levi, when do you think we would see a windshift from that buoy?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24019
Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening everyone.....LOoks like the strongest area of possible Surface Circulation is on the Florida WEST Coast not the East Coast.






Umm...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

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I disagree.
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This could be a neutercane in the making, with tropical AND subtropical features. Yes?
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Quoting Ineluki:
Been a while since I've been here.

Ahh, an invest. Let's see.

Second guessing and berating the NHC? Check.

Beating chests about it? Check.

No one realizing that calling it something doesn't matter since people in Florida are already perfectly aware of the bad weather? Check.

Once upon a time you could learn something from this place. Now the collective egotism of this place has evolved from being humorous to being kind of sad. Not even going to bother to lurk anymore.


way to stir the pot, you just got here, how about looking at the data first before you assume

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7686

624. Ineluki 9:04 PM EDT on October 09, 2011


see ya
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4227
Evening everyone.....LOoks like the strongest area of possible Surface Circulation is on the Florida WEST Coast not the East Coast.





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Where is the official Low now?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
Been a while since I've been here.

Ahh, an invest. Let's see.

Second guessing and berating the NHC? Check.

Beating chests about it? Check.

No one realizing that calling it something doesn't matter since people in Florida are already perfectly aware of the bad weather? Check.

Once upon a time you could learn something from this place. Now the collective egotism of this place has evolved from being humorous to being kind of sad. Not even going to bother to lurk anymore.
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623. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
9:00 AM JST October 10 2011
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea Near Caroline Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 7.1N 132.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 9 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 7.7N 129.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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Quoting Levi32:


Only in terms of whether or not the circulation is actually fully closed. Subtropical cyclones have no requirements for convective organization, because by nature they are disorganized creatures.

I never knew subtropical storms were living creatures.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

120mph.
im going with 115. irwin isnt looking that bad. flooding will be a big concern there..
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Quoting Levi32:


Only in terms of whether or not the circulation is actually fully closed. Subtropical cyclones have no requirements for convective organization, because by nature they are disorganized creatures.


Yes, thank you for the reminder of the NHC 8pm TWO.
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I wonder what graphic is missing. LOL.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Still a SS invest

AL, 93, 2011101000, , BEST, 0, 280N, 800W, 40, 1005, SS,

Sigh.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
mexico better watch out. predicted wind speed at landfall ?

120mph.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Still a SS invest

AL, 93, 2011101000, , BEST, 0, 280N, 800W, 40, 1005, SS,
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Jova now Cat 2:

EP, 10, 2011101000, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1076W, 85, 975, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1008, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOVA, D,
mexico better watch out. predicted wind speed at landfall ?
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Quoting surfsidesindy:


adding thunder and lightening to the mix now. Anyone think the worst will stay offshore or will it come in around the cape? Seems like we've been waiting for it for hours now.

Look at post #604 right above yours.
Looks like it wants to start wrapping now.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
Quoting Skyepony:


I've been thinking they'll get the brunt.

There is a lot of water area still for it to maintain some strength even once it makes landfall there at KSC.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
Florida Power: 20k without power.
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Quoting Drakoen:


It is subtropical. Whether or not there is enough organization is in question.


Only in terms of whether or not the circulation is actually fully closed. Subtropical cyclones have no requirements for convective organization, because by nature they are disorganized creatures.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
It's coming


Wow, good thing the space shuttle is retired and not on the launch pad preparing for a mission!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24019
Jova now Cat 2:

EP, 10, 2011101000, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1076W, 85, 975, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1008, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOVA, D,
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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