Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

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A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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Poll. 93L or whatever it turns into will make landfall in

A. Northeast Florida
B. Georgia
C. South Carolina.
D. It spins down quick as it spun up and no defined landfall occurs.
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I still think the Stronger SURFACE LOW will be off the Florida WEST Coast.
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I am in Saint Augustine. Wind gust to 58, sustained at 43. Looks like a closed low just off the coastline. More like a nor'easter. This should have at least been designated a subtropical storm this afternoon. This has caught a lot of folks by surprise. I bet we have some power outages soon due to trees falling.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JAX&produc t=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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On water vapor it looks like the GOM low wants to consolidate with the 93L low.
They are both on the floater!
LinkWVLoop
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
Quoting kipperedherring:
Leo- Sorry that Tazmaniac let you down.



will you this stop plzs
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Projected path never mind. But it is going east of Cape Canaveral.
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Per the NWS from Melbourne:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
946 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

They are calling it a mid level circulation. I don't see a closed Circulation either but, that sure is some strong winds for a non Closed Low. Could be strong Divergence from the gradient from a Mid Low and the High to the North caused it i guess. Sure does not seem possible tho to see these winds at the Surface.
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Invest93L's_12amGMT_ATCF : Starting 9Oct_12amGMT and ending 10Oct_12amGMT

The 4 southeastern line-segments represent Invest93L's path,
the northwesternmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 10Oct_12amGMT,
and the island dumbbell at 28.18n80.599w-COF is the endpoint of the 9Oct_6pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
Invest93L's travel-speed was 9.2mph(14.8k/h) on a heading of 318.5degrees(NW)
Invest93L was headed toward passage over CapeCanaveralAirForceStation,Florida ~4&1/2.hours from now

Copy&paste 28.18n80.599w-cof, 25.0n77.3w-26.0n77.8w, 26.0n77.8w-26.8n78.5w, 26.8n78.5w-27.4n79.4w, 27.4n79.4w-28.0n80.0w, 27.4n79.4w-28.56n80.568w, xmr into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 10Oct_12amGMT
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


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Too bad buoy 41009 hasn't recorded wave heights for past 3 hours. I bet significant wave height is close to 25 feet there by now.
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698. skook
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Pressure below 1000 mb at buoy 41009. I think this should be designated a subtropical storm with 50 kt winds.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
946 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF BREVARD AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES...
...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND BEACH EROSION LIKELY
OCCURRING...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH AN ASSOCIATED TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OFF THE BREVARD COUNTY COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NASTY MARINE CONDITIONS WITH BUOY 41009 20
NAUTICAL MILES OFF THE COAST OF THE CAPE CONSISTENTLY GUSTING OVER
50 KNOTS WHERE NOW A STORM WARNING EXISTS UNTIL 5 AM. A VERY LOW
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF
WATER SPOUTS OR A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOME
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS HAVE MADE IT TO THE VOLUSIA AND SPACE COASTS WITH
LIKELY DAMAGE IN TERMS OF TREES DOWN AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. A
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT (PRESENTLY)
ACROSS COASTAL VOLUSIA...BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY APPROACH 40 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH EXPECTED. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED ACROSS A PORTION OF THE INTERIOR TO
INCLUDE INLAND VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES
UNTIL 4 AM. HERE GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. WINDS HAVE
BEEN FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SHORT TERM MODELS CURRENTLY FOR BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION SURROUNDING
EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST.

LARGER BLOB OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION MOVING SLOWLY ONSHORE OF NORTH
BREVARD COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES POSSIBLE
LOCALLY HERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AT LEAST.

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS OVERNIGHT CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND
DEVELOPING LOW WITH ASSOCIATED TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE BREVARD-VOLUSIA
COASTS...STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Time to start watching the Caribbean also.........pretty strong 850mb vorticity down there.

Look at all that dry air in the central/western Carib. It's like a brick wall.

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Time to start watching the Caribbean also.........pretty strong 850mb vorticity down there.

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693. BtnTx
Quoting Ineluki:
Been a while since I've been here.

Ahh, an invest. Let's see.

Second guessing and berating the NHC? Check.

Beating chests about it? Check.

No one realizing that calling it something doesn't matter since people in Florida are already perfectly aware of the bad weather? Check.

Once upon a time you could learn something from this place. Now the collective egotism of this place has evolved from being humorous to being kind of sad. Not even going to bother to lurk anymore.
I am certain your comment will change the world!
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Quoting Skyepony:
Looking at Wundermap with the weather stations on & my back yard, just not seeing a greatly defined center. I've got weak NW & W winds, occasional stronger winds from the south. Wundermap is hinting at something elongated maybe, multiple vorticity.

Tampa~ Check out the last OCSAT pass there is a weak surface reflection in the GOM.

Leo~ Shouldn't be worse than a Tropical Storm.


Thx
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


No, it would be named Rina!

LOL.
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Good Night.
I don't know if 93L will get upgraded or not, but it won't change anything. There's always post season.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5627
I tell ya what is happening! A Surface Low is developing under the ULL in the GOM is my guess. We will see tho. Although no surface observations are showing anything like that its just a mere guess from visible.
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922 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

.NOW...

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO COME ASHORE THE COAST FROM SOUTHERN VOLUSIA TO CAPE CANAVERAL WHILE THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM MELBOURNE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES IN A NORTH NORTHWEST
DIRECTION IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE CANAVERAL.

WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE CAPE CANAVERAL AND NORTH MERRITT ISLAND AREA. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES. THE WIND AND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS YOU GO WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND PAST THE ORLANDO AREA.

shower activity has greatly diminished
LinkWVLoopFloater
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
Quoting reedzone:
This deserves to be named period!



No, it would be named Rina!
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684. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Because everybody knows that 93L isn't going to be classified.

Not tonight anyway, might go up to 50 or 60 at next update but no renumbering or nameing.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Looking at Wundermap with the weather stations on & my back yard, just not seeing a greatly defined center. I've got weak NW & W winds, occasional stronger winds from the south. Wundermap is hinting at something elongated maybe, multiple vorticity.

Tampa~ Check out the last OCSAT pass there is a weak surface reflection in the GOM.

Leo~ Shouldn't be worse than a Tropical Storm.


Yep i seen that......We might see that become the more Dominate Low.........don't know tho.
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93L is about out of fuel. The it has wrapped too much dry air.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Blog slowing down..

Because everybody knows that 93L isn't going to be classified.
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Just looked at Bouys and Wind directions......Does not appear to have any type of Closed Surface Low associated with Invest 93L .......if you look at Bouy http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =41114

That should be a West wind from that location if there was a Closed Surface Low.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Blog slowing down..

Because 93L hasn't been upgraded.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5627
Blog slowing down..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23571
675. Skyepony (Mod)
Looking at Wundermap with the weather stations on & my back yard, just not seeing a greatly defined center. I've got weak NW & W winds, occasional stronger winds from the south. Wundermap is hinting at something elongated maybe, multiple vorticity.

Tampa~ Check out the last OCSAT pass there is a weak surface reflection in the GOM.

Leo~ Shouldn't be worse than a Tropical Storm.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
Quoting MelbourneTom:
By Jetty Park


Post # 666.
LOL
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5627
Quoting Neapolitan:

No, I didn't; please note that I reposted, as the "SS" designators have all been changed to "LO". IOW, ATCF says, "Nevermind; it's not a subtropical storm despite what we've been saying all day."

Yeah, I edited my post. :P
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


1000 mb? Pretty low for a not-tropical storm!


Seriously.........i just looked at the Atmos. Temp also......it appears to have risen.......so Warm Core it appears also......HUM!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You already posted that...

No, I didn't; please note that I reposted, as the "SS" designators have all been changed to "LO". IOW, ATCF says, "Nevermind; it's not a subtropical storm despite what we've been saying all day."

[EDIT: I see you modified. Thanks.]
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By Jetty Park

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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF just updated the 93L file, changing all the "SS" classifications to "LO":

AL, 93, 2011101000, , BEST, 0, 280N, 800W, 40, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 250, 250, 0, 225, 1009, 250, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
does that mean if we get it to be classified rita it will be ts not a sts
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
Quoting TampaSpin:
Conditions at 41009 as of
(8:50 pm EDT on 10/09/2011)
0050 GMT on 10/10/2011:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 28.0 m/s
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1000.6 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -8.0 mb ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 25.7 °C


1000 mb? Pretty low for a not-tropical storm!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23571
Quoting kipperedherring:
Tazmaniac, will you please help Leo out (649)? You're the expert at this sort of thing!



am not a expert
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Statement as of 9:22 PM EDT on October 09, 2011

... Band of damaging winds and intense rain moving into northern Brevard coast...

The band of damaging winds... very intense rainfall... and frequent lightning that has been just offshore the Brevard County coast most of this evening is now moving into the northern Brevard coast near Cape Canaveral.

As this band moves Inyo the coast... frequent gusts of 60 to 70 mph will continue with higher gusts possible across Port Canaveral... the Merritt Island wildlife Refuge and Kennedy space center northwards into southern Volusia County including Oak Hill and Edgewater. A cape wind tower has recently reported a wind gust of 69 mph.

Areas along the Mainland west of US 1 from Rockledge northwards will see frequent gusts between 50-55 mph with higher gusts possible if the band can move further inland.

These winds are likely to cause additional damage along the northern Brevard and southern Volusia coasts. Numerous downed trees and power lines are likely... in addition to damage to roofs and small objects becoming airborne. Winds of these speeds will churn up waves within local marinas which may cause boats to become loose from their moorings and damage to docks. These winds will also make driving on local causeways extremely dangerous... especially for high profile vehicles.

Radar indicated rainfall rates in this band have been between 2 to 4 inches an hour... which will aggravate ongoing flooding problems primarily in areas east of US 1.


Additional details... including graphics are available online at:
http://www.Srh.NOAA.Gov/mlb/blog.Php
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF just updated the 93L file, changing all the "SS" classifications to "LO":

AL, 93, 2011101000, , BEST, 0, 280N, 800W, 40, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 250, 250, 0, 225, 1009, 250, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


Very interesting, if they ever decide to upgrade it could be a Tropical, not subtropical, storm.
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 93, 2011101000, , BEST, 0, 280N, 800W, 40, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 250, 250, 0, 225, 1009, 250, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

You already posted that...

Edit: Nevermind, I see.
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658. j2008
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Floater's up.

Bahamas area looks pretty intense, might see something form form it. Ohh, and the area south of Haiti looks pretty interesting too. Anybody else think this is gonna be a wild week??? IDK why NHC still has 93 at 30%, from what I'm hearing we should have SS Rina pretty soon, JMO though.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.