Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

Share this Blog
19
+

A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 758 - 708

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Quoting sar2401:


That's weird. I've had 33 mph gusts from the pressure differential winds in Alabama alone. Unfortunately, our total rainfall is 0.00. :(


I believe it. Earlier, the main Orlando station reported winds of 30 gusting to 40, and this was when it was mostly sunny.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
755. SLU
Closed low + winds of over 39mph + deep convection = a tropical storm

I must say i'm surprized this isn't designated and even more so that it has a 30% chance of development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC has pretty much decided that Invest93L hasn't been a SubtropicalStorm as of yet: all of the former"SS"s have been reevaluated&revised to (closed)LO(w) on the 12amGMT_ATCF.
And NHC has the final say about what's posted on the ATCF.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here in Vero Beach the sky has cleared and the winds have finally died down. Power went out again this evening for about 4 hours - much better than the 12 hours without power yesterday!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting prcane4you:
Who's going to win next year presidential election?


Grothar!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10978
Low's trackers.......incredible.Go to bed everyone.Good Night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ackee:
HOW would u rate the NHC handle on 93L ?

A GOOD
B AVERAGE
C POOR
D VERY POOR
Who's going to win next year presidential election?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Radar velocity estimates of 50-60knots in a few spots onshore near Titusville. Radar beam center height around 1000ft. Really surprised by the strength of this system near it's circulation center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Amazing how much the winds can vary from the coast to more inland areas. I have seen 2 transformers blow here just north of Orlando in the last couple hours, but the highest gust I have recorded so far is 25 mph (how does that work?). Several times it has started to get gusty, but then it just dies down. Still, we have received 7.5" from this event and it has been exciting to follow.
Could something have landed on the fusible link sort of like what happens when a squirrel climbs on one?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
This loop says it all. Counterclockwise-spinning storm hooking into Cape Canaveral.




Durn. There goes my SC landfall guess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DJMedik91:


What do you think this might bring us here in Tampa?


Hard to say until we actually know what is happening....there is so much speculation going on in here, i would not wanna confuse many any further.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Poll. 93L or whatever it turns into will make landfall in

A. Northeast Florida
B. Georgia
C. South Carolina.
D. It spins down quick as it spun up and no defined landfall occurs.
A tropical low making landfall...funny.Hurry evacuate Cape Canaveral and the entire East Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DJMedik91:


What do you think this might bring us here in Tampa?
This low should be about 50 miles north of the bay by morning. It'll just be breezy with a couple showers.

Our only chance for any significant weather with this system will be if a warm front lifts through tomorrow as this whole mess lifts northward, and I'm not sure if that will even take shape...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:
OK, this might seem like a dumb question, but from my sailing days in the Caribbean, this looks just like several tropical waves I encountered at sea or near islands. I know it's windy, rainy, and their's lots of lightning, but that's consistent with a tropical wave. There's no closed circulation that I can see, so I guess I'm at a loss as to why so many people think this should get a name. Just because it's affecting Florida doesn't mean it's not a garden variety tropical wave, which used to give me 60 knot winds, 20 foot waves, and several lighting strikes on the main mast.

I agree the NHC has been a little wacky this year, naming about ever low that appeared in the Atlantic, but I fail to see why this means they should name this wave.


too many west winds reported for it not to be closed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Amazing how much the winds can vary from the coast to more inland areas. I have seen 2 transformers blow here just north of Orlando in the last couple hours, but the highest gust I have recorded so far is 25 mph (how does that work?). Several times it has started to get gusty, but then it just dies down. Still, we have received 7.5" from this event and it has been exciting to follow.


That's weird. I've had 33 mph gusts from the pressure differential winds in Alabama alone. Unfortunately, our total rainfall is 0.00. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It IS windy! I just drove home from Orlando and found keeping the car in one lane was a little work.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OK, this might seem like a dumb question, but from my sailing days in the Caribbean, this looks just like several tropical waves I encountered at sea or near islands. I know it's windy, rainy, and their's lots of lightning, but that's consistent with a tropical wave. There's no closed circulation that I can see, so I guess I'm at a loss as to why so many people think this should get a name. Just because it's affecting Florida doesn't mean it's not a garden variety tropical wave, which used to give me 60 knot winds, 20 foot waves, and several lighting strikes on the main mast.

I agree the NHC has been a little wacky this year, naming about ever low that appeared in the Atlantic, but I fail to see why this means they should name this wave.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Amazing how much the winds can vary from the coast to more inland areas. I have seen 2 transformers blow here just north of Orlando in the last couple hours, but the highest gust I have recorded so far is 25 mph (how does that work?). Several times it has started to get gusty, but then it just dies down. Still, we have received 7.5" from this event and it has been exciting to follow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I agree STS Rina... Question is if NHC will be conservative or not...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This probably should have been a special upgrade at 7PM. It seems kinda silly not to name it. Closed COC. Heck gusts are approaching hurricane force in some areas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
731. ackee
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I think the carrb system shoul at least be given a low chance to devlop as well
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthFLNative:
I am in Saint Augustine. Wind gust to 58, sustained at 43. Looks like a closed low just off the coastline. More like a nor'easter. This should have at least been designated a subtropical storm this afternoon. This has caught a lot of folks by surprise. I bet we have some power outages soon due to trees falling.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JAX&pr oduc t=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


The power just went out for about 30 seconds off of Old Moultrie...i just now got rebooted
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This loop says it all. Counterclockwise-spinning storm hooking into Cape Canaveral.


Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
728. fgh
Hello!
I've been lurking for a few years, but finally I have something interesting to post :D
Here's a video I recorded of the strong winds at Daytona Beach:

Link

Enjoy!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:



I still think the Stronger SURFACE LOW will be off the Florida WEST Coast.


What do you think this might bring us here in Tampa?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
726. ackee
HOW would u rate the NHC handle on 93L ?

A GOOD
B AVERAGE
C POOR
D VERY POOR
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
West winds at 14mph at the Vero Beach official station. You don't get much more proof of a closed center than that.

at the 11pm can the nhc name it or no?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
Let's call it STS Quandary and call it a night, NHC is probably in a quandary deciding if this is a STS, TS or nothing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
723. ackee
Quoting Levi32:
West winds at 14mph at the Vero Beach official station. You don't get much more proof of a closed center than that.

agree the NHC need to upgrade this to subtropical storm seen worst looking system than this got upgraded before
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
West winds at 14mph at the Vero Beach official station. You don't get much more proof of a closed center than that.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
TAWX. I mean there's no point in naming it NOW. They could've named it earlier, that would've been extremely resonable. But they waited. TOO LONG, the time is up...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
720. j2008
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Thanks J2008. I say C, I think the upper shorwave will pull the surface low NW over the next few hours, then they will sort of capture each other and the surface low will then head north just off the coast until Charleston, SC.

As the shortwave approaches I think it will deepen to near 996 mb east or ENE of Daytona Beach, and then slowly fill in afterwards as the systems merge.

But don't take any stock in it. I really have no idea :)

Yea I dont have any idea eather, Just that its headed toward florida currently. Theres no guarrentee that she will even make it to a name so...... all we can do is wait... Still it needs to have a name, just look at how many people were caught off guard today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's definitely not true.
agreed they had plenty of evidence to declare it at least a 50mph STS but what they did is absolutely ridicoulous...
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
If the NHC was interested in 93L, they woudld've upped the percentage at the 8Pm TWO.
They obviously don't think it has enough time over water, and that there is no pointing in naming it if it is only going to be over water for 6 hours or less.

That's definitely not true.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Looking on radar the low on the east coast of florida is turning a little more west (present direction is wnw/nw) while the upper level low in the gulf is drifting north north east. I think now its in the process of getting vertically stacked which if it does that tomorrow over the north east gulf just off the florida coast then theres a chance it still could be called officially a subtropical storm.
I think the low off canaveral is wrapping around the original ULL that is in transition off of Naples.

There are consistent west winds down in Florida bay and NE in Naples.

We'll see if there is a wind shift soon.

They are calling for S wind 15-25 in Naples tomorrow.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 293
If the NHC was interested in 93L, they woudld've upped the percentage at the 8Pm TWO.
They obviously don't think it has enough time over water, and that there is no pointing in naming it if it is only going to be over water for 6 hours or less.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks J2008. I say C, I think the upper shorwave will pull the surface low NW over the next few hours, then they will sort of capture each other and the surface low will then head north just off the coast until Charleston, SC.

As the shortwave approaches I think it will deepen to near 996 mb east or ENE of Daytona Beach, and then slowly fill in afterwards as the systems merge.

But don't take any stock in it. I really have no idea :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
On water vapor it looks like the GOM low wants to consolidate with the 93L low.
They are both on the floater!
LinkWVLoop


Looking on radar the low on the east coast of florida is turning a little more west (present direction is wnw/nw) while the upper level low in the gulf is drifting north north east. I think now its in the process of getting vertically stacked which if it does that tomorrow over the north east gulf just off the florida coast then theres a chance it still could be called officially a subtropical storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Should anyone wish to read, I just finished another blog update on the tropics.

Out for now, though. That earlier debate took some fuel out of me! I might be back later if I can.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
On water vapor it looks like the GOM low wants to consolidate with the 93L low.
They are both on the floater!
LinkWVLoop


It almost looks like there's a shortwave diving in from the west that will deepen the east coast low as the upper approaches the surface low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
711. j2008
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Poll. 93L or whatever it turns into will make landfall in

A. Northeast Florida
B. Georgia
C. South Carolina.
D. It spins down quick as it spun up and no defined landfall occurs.

A
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


1000 mb? Pretty low for a not-tropical storm!


Not really...storms way lower than that happen all the time up here in the north
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The winds are WNW at Cocoa Beach. Can't get more closed than that with all land obs on the west side.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Poll. 93L or whatever it turns into will make landfall in

A. Northeast Florida
B. Georgia
C. South Carolina.
D. It spins down quick as it spun up and no defined landfall occurs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 758 - 708

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.