Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

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A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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93L RIP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
The NHC didn't blow anything. Last I checked we don't classify things scientifically because they look and feel like it. That's not what science is based on last I checked.

That being said, I think the experts know a little better than you guys how to determine if its tropical or not. I may have miscalculated in that I thought the dominant low would be in the gulf. But I knew this system wouldn't be tropical. This low intensified due to baroclinic processes, and is completely baroclinic.

Some of my fellow Floridians need to realize non-tropical systems can produce furious wind and rain too. Just ask People in the Pacific Northwest, The Northeast, or the UK. The UK and the Pacific Northwest have experienced extra-tropical storms that rival major hurricanes in wind power. They may not get the attention because they are unnamed, but they leave their mark.


We had similar deep low low, even stronger than this East Coast one a few years back and Christmas Day. I'm not sure where to pull up the archives but we had sustained winds of 50 mph with gusts peaking over 70 the morning after Christmas, and it was no tropical system. We picked up very heavy rain squalls too.
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799 DJMedik91 "A little off topic but, the military has been using chaff countermeasures for years against radar guided missiles. Is there any way to launch these inside a tornado to further examine a tornadoic cyclone with radar?"

Why? A doppler radar system operating at the proper frequency can already image cyclones and vortexes.
About the only thing I can see that dropping chaff into a tornado would do would be to confuse&confound the imaging process when the chaff gets scattered everywhere outside of the tornado.
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Quoting DJMedik91:
A little off topic but, the military has been using chaff countermeasures for years against radar guided missiles. Is there any way to launch these inside a tornado to further examine a tornadoic cyclone with radar?


Umm... ever see Twister?
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=4 1009

Why did the wind never switch on 41009??

Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
802. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAMON
11:00 AM PhST October 10 2011
===================================

The Active Low Pressure Area east of Mindanao has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "RAMON"

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Ramon located at 7.6°N 132.2°E or 600 km east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 200 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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I'm calling it 'Q'.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 86
If you look at the long range Melbourne radar look, you can see the COC pretty clearly.
Link It is dry as Dr. Masters said earlier, but it is there.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 86
A little off topic but, the military has been using chaff countermeasures for years against radar guided missiles. Is there any way to launch these inside a tornado to further examine a tornadoic cyclone with radar?
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Thanks Drakoen
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Quoting yqt1001:
Special TWO...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100322
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1125 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER LOCATED NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA IS
PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE EAST COASTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LACK SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTH FLORIDA BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND
MONDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...
INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI


LOL!

That's laughable. I guess warm-core and tropical don't go together anymore?

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Non-tropical low. There you have it. Nail in the coffin.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30830
795. j2008
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Covering their tracks, its that simple

knew they would never name this, NHC blew this one Big time IMO

Yea they might be in for a bit of a surprise come landfall tomorrow.
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794. SLU
Quoting aspectre:
755 SLU "Closed low winds of over 39mph deep convection = a tropical storm"

Nope, a storm also needs to have a persistent well-defined CenterOfCirculation in order to become a Named Storm.
A closed Low containing spins of short duration and/or containing multiple competing spins doesn't meet those criteria.


Point taken
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:
Special TWO...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100322
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1125 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER LOCATED NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA IS
PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE EAST COASTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LACK SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTH FLORIDA BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND
MONDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...
INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI


Covering their tracks, its that simple

knew they would never name this, NHC blew this one Big time IMO
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Quoting TampaSpin:
To Name it now would make them look very irresponsible and admitting they messed up. If they don't classify it they would be wrong but, to classify it now or latter would make them really look bad for not doing so earlier. JUST MY OPINION THO!


Gusts at the Cape to 75 mph means they effed up. It was a tough forecast.
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791. Skyepony (Mod)
Some pics of the flooding at peak in SW China.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39388
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hard to say until we actually know what is happening....there is so much speculation going on in here, i would not wanna confuse many any further.


A lot of speculation. I'm not too concerned, since the models are far out. Then again, they have been all over the place the past week or so.

I told my GF to not buy our howl-o-scream tickets for last night a week ago since I lurk here. Did she listen? Not at all... Loo
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Quoting tampahurricane:
This could be way out there, but I seen some of the models suggest that when this thing starts moving west or west north west that it gets into the gulf and moves south instead of north. What are the chances of that playing out?


The energy seems to having a hard enough time holding itself together in central florida let alone enough to form anythng the Gulf. That tail end charlie off Houston looks more promising to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Special TWO...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100322
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1125 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER LOCATED NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA IS
PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE EAST COASTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LACK SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTH FLORIDA BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND
MONDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...
INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Possibly. Its going inland now and interaction with the land would tend to weaken the circulation but since this is a subtropical storm the energy from the upper level will likely help sustain it as it moves towards the WNW.
Which put it in the GOM, more than likely.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
786. j2008
For anybody wondering:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011

...JOVA STRENGTHENS...NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...HURRICANE
WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 107.3W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO...AND CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO
MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

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Does anyone else but me think that blob off Houston looks more threating in the GOM than that little piece of junk off the SW coast of Florida?
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It is what it is.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting TampaSpin:
I seldom say the NHC was wrong but, i think they really "f'd" up on this one.......






You all really need to zoom in on this and see the COC on the LLC


Go to about 1:05 ....lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLJf9qJHR3E
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
This low should be about 50 miles north of the bay by morning. It'll just be breezy with a couple showers.

Our only chance for any significant weather with this system will be if a warm front lifts through tomorrow as this whole mess lifts northward, and I'm not sure if that will even take shape...



Define significant. Haha. We're use to showers almost every day.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Drakoen you think that will be the lowest pressure the storm ever reaches?


Possibly. Its going inland now and interaction with the land would tend to weaken the circulation but since this is a subtropical storm the energy from the upper level will likely help sustain it as it moves towards the WNW.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30830
This could be way out there, but I seen some of the models suggest that when this thing starts moving west or west north west that it gets into the gulf and moves south instead of north. What are the chances of that playing out?
Member Since: May 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
That's a 10 point drop in pressure in 10 hours. About what I would expect with a tropical storm.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 86
755 SLU "Closed low winds of over 39mph deep convection = a tropical storm"

Nope, a storm also needs to have a persistent well-defined CenterOfCirculation in order to become a Named Storm.
A closed Low containing spins of short duration and/or containing multiple competing spins doesn't meet those criteria.
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Quoting Drakoen:
The lowest pressure reported at off-shore buoy 41009 was 999.5mb.


Drakoen you think that will be the lowest pressure the storm ever reaches?
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Quoting floodzonenc:
LOL @ prcane. Jim Cantore attracts hurricanes... would not be good for Washington, D.C.

Here's the 5 day precip map for the workweek from HPC
Exactly,that's why we need him in DC.
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Quoting fgh:
Hello!
I've been lurking for a few years, but finally I have something interesting to post :D
Here's a video I recorded of the strong winds at Daytona Beach:

Link

Enjoy!


Pretty fierce winds there. Thanks for the video.
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The lowest pressure reported at off-shore buoy 41009 was 999.5mb.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30830
Quoting SarahFromFLA:
Central Merritt Island. Our pressure is currently 1000mb.


Yep:

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.0 m/s
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 27.0 m/s
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1000.1 mb
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 26.4 °C
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 27.6 °C
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 23.5 °C
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 28.7 °C
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30830
Quoting sunlinepr:
Invest from Africa, CMC

if conditions were favorable and the bermuda high was that strong that would go into the caribbean
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1727
Central Merritt Island. Our pressure is currently 1000mb.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 86
Quoting nymore:
Could something have landed on the fusible link sort of like what happens when a squirrel climbs on one?


Possible :) But, I have seen the same thing happen during other storms, when it was breezy/gusty but not that strong, like during Fay.
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Ok well, they are not naming this thing even though we know it should be named

I am off to bed, night
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Invest from Africa, CMC

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765. Skyepony (Mod)
VOLUSIA FL-BREVARD FL-
1059 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 500 AM EDT MONDAY.

* AT 1053 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AN AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTH BREVARD AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC PUSHING WESTWARD. THESE RAINS SHOULD SPREAD ONSHORE VOLUSIA
COUNTY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...CAPE
CANAVERAL...COCOA...COCOA BEACH...EDGEWATER...MAYTOWN...MERRITT
ISLAND...MIMS...NEW SMYRNA BEACH...OAK HILL...PORT CANAVERAL...PORT
SAINT JOHN...SCOTTSMOOR...TITUSVILLE...CANAVERAL GROVES...KENNEDY
SPACE CENTER AND MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE.

RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY RUNOFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA OVERNIGHT.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39388
A little turning going on between Jamaica and Haiti?

See link

Link
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To Name it now would make them look very irresponsible and admitting they messed up. If they don't classify it they would be wrong but, to classify it now or latter would make them really look bad for not doing so earlier. JUST MY OPINION THO!
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would not be shocked if they do not name this


ever seen the NHC go from 30% to a name when the storm is this close to land?

out in the open waters I have seen it, not this close to land though
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Multiple surface observations and radar imagery show that 93L has developed a well-defined low level center. Whether or not classification of a named storm is made is up to the forecasters at the NHC now. Right click "view image" for a close up.

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30830
Quoting floodzonenc:


Stephanie Abrams, FTW.

Hunker down, Fla. :)
Jim Cantore is my man.
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clear tropical storm or subtropical storm sitting off the coast of east central florida and the NHC has not named it. I truly don't understand how this is not classified when horrible looking storms are named over the northern atlantic. Seems like they don't want to issue tropical storm warnings because it would impact schools and business. Clearly and economical decision rather than the decision based on evidence
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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