Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

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A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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Jova looking better...

Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
BTW, I'm looking at that coastal breakaway over Galveston and wondering what's up with that....

And on that note, I think I will try to sleep for a couple of hours before my alarm clock screams at me... lol...

Night all.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21485
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I don't know much about subtropical storms but I don't think I've ever seen a tropical storm with a PWAT of less than 1.6" over the center. In a hole.
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Things fall apart, the center cannot hold.


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GFS is still advertising a weak storm in the Caribbean at 264hrs. It Keeps getting pushed back though.

Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
I'm out for the night.

Disagreements with folks in high places is perfectly fine. I hope nobody truly believes that it isn't. Again, we would have no place if we couldn't debate intriguing situations like this.

Goodnight.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
I think it was worth naming before, but not now. There's almost no convection near the center. And PWAT over the center is low. It will take quite a while for convection to reform.

It's almost like the low was a transitory meso-sized spinup.

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Quoting Levi32:


Actually I can believe I'm right and they're wrong. Obviously their report goes in the record-books, but yes I can and do have that attitude. Meteorologists have a responsibility to have individual opinions. Too many simply reflect the NHC's opinion.


Read comment 830 again. And I quote, "One of the best way to start advancing more in your knowledge in any field is to learn more from those who have more knowledge and experience. When you despise them you remain in ignorance. That's why having an internship makes you more likely to get hired, because it helps you learn that ethic."

It's like Star Wars, there's the master, and there's the apprentice who learns from the master. Meteorologists do have their individual opinions, and some match the NHC's, not go along with them. When the NHC looks back at this and if they say they're wrong, they'll change it.
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Hey all.

Still not seeing the pulling together of this system, at least not on sat loops. [haven't looked at radar yet].

I think this is going to give FL some more rain, maybe some windy gusts, and that's about it.

Still don't think NHC is going to name this unless / until it gets into the GoM. That, frankly is now looking relatively iffy.

At least it's looking like most of the associated moisture will not rain on my morning commute.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21485
IMO 93L didn't have the structure to be classified a tropical or subtropical cyclone. It looked more like a Nor'easter you see around Christmas time. Who knows...maybe they will decide to declare it subtropical in the post-season.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Quoting ClaySFL:


You can disagree, but you are not the NHC. They have all the say in this. Don't act like "I'm right, they're wrong." If you have that kind of attitude, preach it somewhere else.


Actually I can believe I'm right and they're wrong. Obviously their report goes in the record-books, but yes I can and do have that attitude. Meteorologists have a responsibility to have individual opinions. Too many simply reflect the NHC's opinion.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Jedkins01:


That's really not all that convincing, there may be some warm air present in the low layers due to warm water, but the rest of the atmosphere represents cold core. Furthermore, you still have an issue that this thing has troughiness associated with it. If you don't agree check out the 850 MB vort. Just because it has strong winds and low pressure doesn't mean you can dismiss the troughiness.

I know its weird but the weather always throws curve balls at us. They are doing a great job by sticking to meteorological definition and not naming it just because it looks that way.

Its a weird, complex "hybridy" low formed by baroclinic process with some shallow warmth due to warm waters, but not a named system.


Whoa, wait, you're saying that 1000mb-200mb represents the surface layer??

And here's your definition from the horse's mouth:

Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.


NHC Glossary

The troughiness at what level? It was a closed, well-defined circulation at the surface. Troughiness aloft is what makes a subtropical cyclone subtropical. Subtropical cyclones are also, by definition, disorganized.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Levi32:


Please check the AMSU pass and the cyclone phase diagram above, and then tell me it's not warm-core.


That's really not all that convincing, there may be some warm air present in the low layers due to warm water, but the rest of the atmosphere represents cold core. Furthermore, you still have an issue that this thing has troughiness associated with it. If you don't agree check out the 850 MB vort. Just because it has strong winds and low pressure doesn't mean you can dismiss the troughiness.

I know its weird but the weather always throws curve balls at us. They are doing a great job by sticking to meteorological definition and not naming it just because it looks that way.

Its a weird, complex "hybridy" low formed by baroclinic process with some shallow warmth due to warm waters, but not a named system.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7278
Quoting Levi32:


It's important not to be afraid to challenge "experts". Without debate, science would not progress. We don't take the NHC's word for it just because they are the experts. We are allowed to disagree.


You can disagree, but you are not the NHC. They have all the say in this. Don't act like "I'm right, they're wrong." If you have that kind of attitude, preach it somewhere else.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Admit you guys were wrong, this thing is obviously a baroclinic low.


One of the best way to start advancing more in your knowledge in any field is to learn more from those who have more knowledge and experience. When you despise them you remain in ignorance.

That's why having an internship makes you more likely to get hired, because it helps you learn that ethic.

Sometimes I wonder why I still come to this blog after seeing the ridiculous know-it-all comments here. That's why you guys are bloggers and they are real MET's. Enough said...


Word. +1000000
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Quoting ClaySFL:
My 2 cents is do not disagree with the NHC. They are the experts, we are not. We are just mere average people with no experience compared to them.


It's important not to be afraid to challenge "experts". Without debate, science would not progress. We don't take the NHC's word for it just because they are the experts. We are allowed to disagree.

I ask would we have any place at all in the world if we were not allowed to disagree with them? What point is there to our existence as amateur meteorologists if our opinion is molded by their's.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Jedkins01:


Admit you guys were wrong, this thing is obviously a baroclinic low.


One of the best way to start advancing more in your knowledge in any field is to learn more from those who have more knowledge and experience. When you despise them you remain in ignorance.

That's why having an internship makes you more likely to get hired, because it helps you learn that ethic.


Warm cored, deep convection over LLC is not fully baroclinic. This is a Subtropical Storm that is not named.
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Quoting Levi32:
If you want an objective opinion, the computer says it's shallow warm-core. Remember the AMSU pass I posted earlier as well.






e mail that too the nhc lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
GPS not exclusively ours anymore........European Union, China and India will follow

Russia completes deployment of global positioning satellites (Precision of 1 meter)
English.news.cn 2011-10-08 02:43:20 FeedbackPrintRSS

MOSCOW, Oct. 7 (Xinhua) -- Russia has completed the deployment of its global positioning satellite group "Glonass", head of the Russian Space Agency Roscosmos Vladimir Popovkin said on Friday.

Glonass, the Russian equivalent of the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS), is designed for both military and civilian use. The system requires 24 operational and 2-3 reserve satellites in orbit to ensure global coverage.

"Today Russia's Glonass group is really global and ready at any moment to show (the user's) whereabouts....We completed the formation of the orbiting cluster with the launch of a Glonass-M satellite in early October." Popovkin told a meeting in the Russian State Duma, or the lower house of parliament,

"Now we will develop the system's land-based infrastructure, which will increase the Glonass precision to one meter from current five to six meters by 2015," he added.

Currently, there are 28 Glonass satellites in orbit -- 23 of them are operating, two are being put into service, and three are out for maintenance.

According to Popovkin, in the next few years, one of the priorities of the Roscosmos is to develop weather and communication satellites as well as the Earth's remote sounding.
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My 2 cents is do not disagree with the NHC. They are the experts, we are not. We are just mere average people with no experience compared to them. They see what we see. They don't leave anything out.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Admit you guys were wrong, this thing is obviously a baroclinic low.


One of the best way to start advancing more in your knowledge in any field is to learn more from those who have more knowledge and experience. When you despise them you remain in ignorance.

That's why having an internship makes you more likely to get hired, because it helps you learn that ethic.


Please check the AMSU pass and the cyclone phase diagram above, and then tell me it's not warm-core.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
If you want an objective opinion, the computer says it's shallow warm-core. Remember the AMSU pass I posted earlier as well.



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
That Caribbean blob is nothing to be concerned about at the moment. It's all part of that disorganized monsoon trough parked off the EC.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
831. j2008
Quoting Levi32:
It's way too easy to side with the government branch on issues like this and that's what a lot of people are going to do because it's easier to side with power than against it.

This was a goof-up on the part of the NHC that will go unexplained, just like many other systems before this.

Hope they arnt so full of themselves that they dont add it in at the end of the year during reviseing. Ok, I'm done for the night, again..
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Quoting reedzone:
NHC.. you suck!!! Blew this one off, just after it blew enough of a ball of convection near the center and STILL did not name it, yet you name Jose... FAILURE! All the evidence was there for this to be classified. Apparently being warm cored doesn't mix with tropical anymore as Levi said.


Admit you guys were wrong, this thing is obviously a baroclinic low.


One of the best way to start advancing more in your knowledge in any field is to learn more from those who have more knowledge and experience. When you despise them you remain in ignorance.

That's why having an internship makes you more likely to get hired, because it helps you learn that ethic.

Sometimes I wonder why I still come to this blog after seeing the ridiculous know-it-all comments here. That's why you guys are bloggers and they are real MET's. Enough said...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7278
Accuweather Frank Strait is frustrated at the NHC as well..
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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It's way too easy to side with the government branch on issues like this and that's what a lot of people are going to do because it's easier to side with power than against it.

This was a goof-up on the part of the NHC that will go unexplained, just like many other systems before this.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Jedkins01:
The NHC didn't blow anything. Last I checked we don't classify things scientifically because they look and feel like it. That's not what science is based on last I checked.

That being said, I think the experts know a little better than you guys how to determine if its tropical or not. I may have miscalculated in that I thought the dominant low would be in the gulf. But I knew this system wouldn't be tropical. This low intensified due to baroclinic processes, and is completely baroclinic.

Some of my fellow Floridians need to realize non-tropical systems can produce furious wind and rain too. Just ask People in the Pacific Northwest, The Northeast, or the UK. The UK and the Pacific Northwest have experienced extra-tropical storms that rival major hurricanes in wind power. They may not get the attention because they are unnamed, but they leave their mark.


We had similar deep low low, even stronger than this East Coast one a few years back and Christmas Day. I'm not sure where to pull up the archives but we had sustained winds of 50 mph with gusts peaking over 70 the morning after Christmas, and it was no tropical system. We picked up very heavy rain squalls too.


A warm-core system with deep convection over the center is not baroclinic. It is subtropical.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Here is out UNNAMED Subtropical Storm!!

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The precipitable water graphic shows a hole below 1.6" where the center of circulation is. Odd.

Link for expanded image.



It sucked in drier air, it had a swath of 2 to 2.3 inch PWATS earlier. It may build its moisture back up from bottom to top by morning and get some more deep convection going.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7278
NHC.. you suck!!! Blew this one off, just after it blew enough of a ball of convection near the center and STILL did not name it, yet you name Jose... FAILURE! All the evidence was there for this to be classified. Apparently being warm cored doesn't mix with tropical anymore as Levi said.
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801 SarahFromFLA "I'm calling it 'Q'."

Or more formally, ST:TNG* Q

* SubTropical:ThingNotGnamed^
^ If gnu and gnome, then...
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting WoodyFL:
That makes too much sense,Jedkins.


Hey, sometimes I get sick of seeing people bash experts who know much better. Its just as aggravating to see sports fans get mad at their team and talk about how bad they suck. They think they could do a better job at coaching or playing the game.

Come on guys let reality set in a little bit. Why do those who know less love to bash those who have positions that required sacrificing their lives for what they love to get their. Hey you might envy them having a job dealing with weather but give them their respect due. Its not even really that complicated at all as to why this low isn't named. But some people here are so quick to jump to conclusions, excited because "they proved the experts wrong" that they don't realize they are bursting their own bubble by being so sure of what they say.


Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7278
The precipitable water graphic shows a hole below 1.6" where the center of circulation is. Odd.

Link for expanded image.

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818. RukusBoondocks 12:21 AM EDT on October 10, 2011


not affecting anyone at the moment
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Who cares about 93 lets look in the carribean that blob is looking better
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Quoting aspectre:
799 DJMedik91 "A little off topic but, the military has been using chaff countermeasures for years against radar guided missiles. Is there any way to launch these inside a tornado to further examine a tornadoic cyclone with radar?"

Why? A doppler radar system operating at the proper frequency can already image cyclones and vortexes.
About the only thing I can see that dropping chaff into a tornado would do would be to confuse&confound the imaging process when the chaff gets scattered everywhere outside of the tornado.


My apologies, my response post was fouled. I understand the doppler aspect, but that can be miles away with scanning. If you can put chaffs in the line of a TVS, maybe it could help. But I'm no meteorologist, just a thought.
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This system has mostly been a non event.
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815. Gorty
May I remind you guys of what the NHC said: "CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LACK SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE."
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Quoting aspectre:
799 DJMedik91 "A little off topic but, the military has been using chaff countermeasures for years against radar guided missiles. Is there any way to launch these inside a tornado to further examine a tornadoic cyclone with radar?"

Why? A doppler radar system operating at the proper frequency can already image cyclones and vortexes.
About the only thing I can see that dropping chaff into a tornado would do would be to confuse&confound the imaging process when the chaff gets scattered everywhere outside of the tornado.
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813. j2008
I leave you tonight with a piece of catorigization fun that can be used to argue with or against the formation of a possible STS.

Def: A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some characteristics of a tropical and an extratropical cyclone.

Night to all, and most of all Stay safe!
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812. LBAR
Frank Strait at Accuweather says it should be "Rina".

This is a bit disconcerting from the Charleston, SC NWS...

COULD SEE AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WATERSPOUT RISK DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. WHILE WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SUBSTANTIAL
TORNADO THREAT TO EVOLVE OVERNIGHT...THE RISK WILL CERTAINLY BE
NON-ZERO AS 0-1KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RISE TO 300-400 M2/S2.-- End Changed Discussion --

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That makes too much sense,Jedkins.
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810. skook
great post jed
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809. Gorty
Quoting yqt1001:
Special TWO...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100322
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1125 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER LOCATED NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA IS
PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE EAST COASTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LACK SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTH FLORIDA BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND
MONDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...
INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI


Lol, JB is going to be mad...
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93L RIP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.