Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

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A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GainesvilleGator:
It looks like 93L is right on top of me in
Gainesville, FL (7:15 EST). I woke up at 4:00 AM this morning to thunder & heavy rain. It seems to have tapered off some in the last half hour as the heaviest rains seem to be on the West side of the low. The big question is whether or not this heads into the northern GOM.


You are near the eye of the...

Never mind. That discussion got heated here yesterday apparently.

Rough weather for you. Big blast of convection in your part of FL.
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Quoting whepton3:


Looking at the models if that does get going it will probably have a NW movement towards the Yucatan peninsula in the long run.

Things have backed off that real northern launch towards FL and the SEUS.
I hope not because that would bring it right over me :)
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Interesting tidbit from Crown Weather this morning.



I’m wondering if we may see another organized disturbance form about 100 miles or so offshore of Florida’s east coast this afternoon. The high resolution rapid refresh model (HRRR model) is hinting that an area of disorganized convection stretching from the central Caribbean northward through the Bahamas may spin off a low pressure system off of the east coast of Florida; in fact, both the radar imagery forecast & the wind field forecast both show a curly-Q signature of a developing low pressure system with 70 mph wind gusts with this developing low pressure system. So, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to see another Invest situation (Invest 94?) this afternoon into tonight.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think it is possible. At least there is more than enough moisture to work with.


Looking at the models if that does get going it will probably have a NW movement towards the Yucatan peninsula in the long run.

Things have backed off that real northern launch towards FL and the SEUS.
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It looks like 93L is right on top of me in
Gainesville, FL (7:15 EST). I woke up at 4:00 AM this morning to thunder & heavy rain. It seems to have tapered off some in the last half hour as the heaviest rains seem to be on the West side of the low. The big question is whether or not this heads into the northern GOM.
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Long ways out... and therefore for entertainment purposes only...

But the 06Z GFS for Tuesday 10/25:

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Quoting whepton3:


Morning CI... CMC picked up on something there last week moving north(ish) going into the weekend.

Could be the start.
I think it is possible. At least there is more than enough moisture to work with.
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Is the MJO officially back yet?
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Merritt Island, East Central FL. report: we had 75 mph windgusts around 11 pm last night, after being battered by winds and rain all weekend, that was the grand finale! we got 7 1/2" of rain, That surpassed the rainfall amounts from Hurricane Jeanne in 2004 (6.04 inches) and Hurricane Wilma in 2005 (4.96 inches), NWS records show. Local paper calling it the "Columbus Day storm". At least I know what to write on my calendar now! Ha.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Hey, sometimes I get sick of seeing people bash experts who know much better. Its just as aggravating to see sports fans get mad at their team and talk about how bad they suck. They think they could do a better job at coaching or playing the game.

Come on guys let reality set in a little bit. Why do those who know less love to bash those who have positions that required sacrificing their lives for what they love to get their. Hey you might envy them having a job dealing with weather but give them their respect due. Its not even really that complicated at all as to why this low isn't named. But some people here are so quick to jump to conclusions, excited because "they proved the experts wrong" that they don't realize they are bursting their own bubble by being so sure of what they say.




This is youth! And also what KEEPS the world going 'round after the oldies but goodies retire...
I always enjoy a lively debate. Unfortunately, sometimes we cross the line into debacles and then rationality breaks down, and well, you know what happens then. Anyway, there is no wind, no rain at present over here in ECFL and it's a quiet morning.
Have a great day everyone!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11163
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Neighbor's pasture behind our house has turned into a small lake. Last time it did that was Hurricane Jeanne.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Caribbean surface map now shows a low in the central Caribbean moving N/NW.





Morning CI... CMC picked up on something there last week moving north(ish) going into the weekend.

Could be the start.
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Good morning. Caribbean surface map now shows a low in the central Caribbean moving N/NW.



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In the center I am!
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as soon as it went by we had west winds
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Quoting wn1995:
Wow, went back and read some comments from earlier tonight, and just because everyone here has differing opinions, is no reason to resort to personal attacks at anyone! Everyone on here will have a different idea of what is going on each and every situation. Disagreements amongst ourselves cannot, and should not be avoided. But you can voice your opinion without getting an attitude when someone disagrees.

As for my opinion, this certainly deserved to be named. It met every criteria to be a subtropical storm. I see there was some debate as to whether it was warm or cold core, however, looking at data it is pretty obvious to me this was a warm core system. Another indication that this was subtropical, is the unorganized thunderstorms and overall nature of the core.

An interesting event for sure, a fun one to watch, and the effects to FL were similar to those you would expect from a moderate tropical storm.


My article on the subject
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NHC blew this one big time.

the winds with this little system have been gusting to close to hurricane force, it easily met the criteria

sadly people probably got caught off guard by this. The inconsistency of the NHC over the last few years, makes me feel like I cannot trust them like I used to.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7353
asleep at the wheel! nhc 81 mph wind at playalinda last night can you fire govt employees?
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Wow, went back and read some comments from earlier tonight, and just because everyone here has differing opinions, is no reason to resort to personal attacks at anyone! Everyone on here will have a different idea of what is going on each and every situation. Disagreements amongst ourselves cannot, and should not be avoided. But you can voice your opinion without getting an attitude when someone disagrees.

As for my opinion, this certainly deserved to be named. It met every criteria to be a subtropical storm. I see there was some debate as to whether it was warm or cold core, however, looking at data it is pretty obvious to me this was a warm core system. Another indication that this was subtropical, is the unorganized thunderstorms and overall nature of the core.

An interesting event for sure, a fun one to watch, and the effects to FL were similar to those you would expect from a moderate tropical storm.
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Also, Jova looking quite impressive this a.m..... not surprised to see a pink symbol there before landfall with this kind of presentation...



Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21403




Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21403
Hmmmm.

Morning all. Looks like we're going to end up with a bit more rain this a.m. than I had hoped. Hearing some rumbles again, I checked this out. NOT looking particularly peaceful...



I think FL and SE CONUS may get a bit more wx from this today...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21403
Worst of it seems to be over. Winds have died down and now coming out of the south and west. More than 8 inches of rain over the last three and a half hours.
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Sustained winds have to be flirting with tropical storm force and gusts are easily topping 50mph right now.
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Winds are the strongest I've seen so far. Watched a transformer blow, no power for the homes east of us.
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No one is sleeping through this.
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Everyone is asleep while Subtropical storm UNNAMED is forming or passing north of Ocala. Perhaps just a temporary swirl. Was not there 3 hours ago.



Also NWS Tampa Bay Analysis:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
310 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. THE 500 MB CIRCULATION SHOWS A LOW OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL LOSE ITS
DEFINITION AND THE LOW OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
CENTER AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS. THIS LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER
LONGWAVE TROUGH AT 500MB PUSHES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
KEEPS THE PATTERN PROGRESSIVE.
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Winds have really picked up and lightning is extreme now. Power hase flickered several times.
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Heavt lightning and over 5 inches of rain the last two hours here. Just north of Ocala
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878. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
JOVA..

2011OCT10
070000
T 5.7
957
107.2
Initial 5.7
Adjusted 6.4
Raw 6.4
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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namsesfcwbg.gif

shame on you nhc
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P, 10, 2011101006, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1072W, 95, 967, HU, 64, NEQ
110 mph winds.
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Latest IR image of Jova
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Quoting emguy:


As I look at this radar loop, this never met the criteria of a tropical or subtropical system...end of story.


That is correct. It doesn't matter if you had 60-70mph wind gusts reported. It didn't reach the criteria of a tropical or subtropical cyclone. The local NWS had high wind watches/warnings and flood watches/warnings way in advance with this system. The structure looked like more of a Nor'easter imo...should we start naming those too?
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
873. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
15:00 PM JST October 10 2011
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Eastern Mindanao

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 7.4N 131.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 8.4N 129.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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The fact that the center is falling apart means this is Subtropical. Sorry but the argument will continue!
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871. emguy
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Things fall apart, the center cannot hold.




As I look at this radar loop, this never met the criteria of a tropical or subtropical system...end of story.
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870. emguy
Quoting Levi32:
It's way too easy to side with the government branch on issues like this and that's what a lot of people are going to do because it's easier to side with power than against it.

This was a goof-up on the part of the NHC that will go unexplained, just like many other systems before this.


Bottom line Levi is simple...the National Weather Service issues the parameters for the system. Nane it tropicl/sub-tropical/non-tropical it does not matter. This was not a catostrophic hurricane heading toward the coast with no warning and the outcome was the same. Folks were properly notified and the weather was just that...the weather. It rained a lot and it got windy, but not the end of the world.

Respectfully...you have a large following for your posts and your video, but in so much, you are still (despite a smart one that picks up on some weather patterns in advance), a college kid in Alaska that has a lot to learn. I see you change your forecasts and ramble on quite a bit yourself in you videos (which should probably only last 2-4 minutes at the longest just by eliminating all the repetitive sentences and the boring use overuse of the word mishief). Before knocking others, look inward first.

As a smart kid, and a lot of people are paying attention to what you say, but just consider this in your posts...be responsible, don't be arrogant and big headed, and remember that you have not entered the professional field of meteorology yet. So if you want to bash, bash, but if it is a career path, you might not want to bite the hand that feeds you in order to impress/create a following here. It is not worth it my friend.
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869. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
a non-tropical low pressure area centered inland over east-central Florida continues to produce gale force winds along the East Coast of northern Florida and over portions of the western Atlantic.

Cloudiness and showers associated with this system have become less organized during the past few hours and the chance of development into a subtropical cyclone is decreasing since the low
will be moving over the Florida Peninsula today. This system has a low chance...20 percent...of becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves generally northwestward at 5 to 10
mph.

Regardless of development...strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are expected along portions of the coast of the southeastern United States through tonight. For additional information specific to your area...including watches or warnings...please see statements issued by your ocal National
Weather Service forecast office.
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That Dry Tortugas low doesn't what to go away. Same place as last night!
Quoting sunlinepr:
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Interesting thought! Some winter storms have actually been more costly than tropical storms! Submidlat storms?
Quoting sunlinepr:


That has been my question for years.... Why doesn't the NHC names Winter storms and acquires data the same way it does during the Hurricane season....
Not only that would incentivate weather science and jobs, but would build a knowledge base that has proven to be related to discuss global weather....
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Quoting ClaySFL:


You can disagree, but you are not the NHC. They have all the say in this. Don't act like "I'm right, they're wrong." If you have that kind of attitude, preach it somewhere else.


The NHC is dealing with the same dud of a hurricane season as all of us. Dealing with the normal heating of the earth cycle that's keeps being fed to us here to scare/guilt people. The earth will do what the earth will do and G-d is in control of it all not my exhaust pipe!!
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Bad....Jova............Posible Cat 3 into Mexico...


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859 swflurker "Yep, seen it all now! Nor'eastern in Fl. The NHC should just call it a Sou'eastern. New storm classification.

Nor'easter, so Sou'halloween
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Quoting swflurker:
Yep, seen it all now! Nor'eastern in Fl. The NHC should just call it a Sou'eastern. New storm classification.


It has been my question for years.... Why doesn't the NHC names Winter storms and acquires data the same way it does during the Hurricane season....
Not only that would incentivate weather science and jobs, but would build a knowledge base that has proven to be related to discuss global weather....
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Here's your sign. 21 comments/23000 comments. Who would I choose?
Quoting ClaySFL:


Read comment 830 again. And I quote, "One of the best way to start advancing more in your knowledge in any field is to learn more from those who have more knowledge and experience. When you despise them you remain in ignorance. That's why having an internship makes you more likely to get hired, because it helps you learn that ethic."

It's like Star Wars, there's the master, and there's the apprentice who learns from the master. Meteorologists do have their individual opinions, and some match the NHC's, not go along with them. When the NHC looks back at this and if they say they're wrong, they'll change it.
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Later, Levi
Quoting Levi32:
I'm out for the night.

Disagreements with folks in high places is perfectly fine. I hope nobody truly believes that it isn't. Again, we would have no place if we couldn't debate intriguing situations like this.

Goodnight.
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Yep, seen it all now! Nor'eastern in Fl. The NHC should just call it a Sou'eastern. New storm classification.
Quoting robert88:
IMO 93L didn't have the structure to be classified a tropical or subtropical cyclone. It looked more like a Nor'easter you see around Christmas time. Who knows...maybe they will decide to declare it subtropical in the post-season.
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Jova looking better...

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.