Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

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A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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hey all look what i found


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932011.invest
FSTDA
R
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040
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201110091821
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NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2011, DB, O, 2011100918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932011
AL, 93, 2011100818, , BEST, 0, 240N, 770W, 35, 1011, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100900, , BEST, 0, 250N, 773W, 35, 1010, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100906, , BEST, 0, 260N, 778W, 35, 1009, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100912, , BEST, 0, 268N, 785W, 35, 1008, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 225, 1015, 275, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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HDOBS #33, pressures rising as plane departs from center of Jova. Lowest found was 979.5mb in last set. Max wind of 70kts on the outbound.

000
URPN15 KNHC 091821
AF304 0110E JOVA HDOB 33 20111009
181130 1608N 10813W 6969 02973 9812 +132 +031 241001 002 020 000 03
181200 1609N 10814W 6977 02965 9815 +129 +035 095002 004 023 000 00
181230 1610N 10816W 6969 02972 9822 +123 +037 027009 015 030 000 00
181300 1612N 10817W 6967 02980 9832 +118 +037 032028 036 038 002 00
181330 1613N 10818W 6969 02985 9846 +114 +036 039049 060 050 002 00
181400 1614N 10820W 6967 03002 9860 +115 +033 037062 063 058 008 00
181430 1615N 10821W 6971 03009 9898 +095 +030 041065 067 058 013 00
181500 1616N 10822W 6970 03022 9946 +068 +024 038070 070 059 014 00
181530 1617N 10823W 6962 03047 9956 +074 +013 038068 070 058 009 00
181600 1619N 10824W 6974 03047 9968 +076 +004 036063 064 055 005 00
181630 1620N 10826W 6966 03066 9964 +090 -003 036060 062 051 001 00
181700 1621N 10827W 6970 03072 9977 +089 -004 036057 058 049 001 00
181730 1622N 10828W 6966 03083 9980 +092 -002 033052 054 048 001 00
181800 1623N 10829W 6966 03090 9977 +101 +001 033050 050 048 001 00
181830 1624N 10830W 6970 03089 9985 +098 +003 034048 049 046 001 00
181900 1626N 10832W 6970 03097 9994 +095 +006 035047 047 044 002 00
181930 1627N 10833W 6965 03104 9997 +096 +008 037046 047 043 001 03
182000 1628N 10834W 6971 03102 0003 +094 +010 039044 045 041 000 03
182030 1629N 10835W 6971 03104 0009 +093 +011 037041 042 039 001 03
182100 1630N 10837W 6966 03118 0007 +097 +012 037039 039 040 000 03
$$
;
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Quoting HurricaneVSafety:


where is the exact fix on the center?


Somewhere near 27.4, 79.4
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wait so, why are people expecting development if the low is moving ashore tonight?

Because it'll emerge in the Eastern Gulf afterwards.
AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
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Quoting sar2401:


Completely untrue. We had a nice batch of showers headed toward central Alabama this morhing. If you check the radar now, you'll see that they've almost completely dissipated due to the very dry air (42% RH) here. All of the shower activity on the west side of this system has been falling apart as it tries to penetrate the dry air associated with the strong high pressure we've had over us all week. The barometer is still at 30.15, which has only fallen from 30.18 in the last 24 hours. Until we can moisten up the atmosphere on the west side of the system and start seeing more rapidly falling pressures, both the dry air and shear will not allow development beyond the existing open trough of low pressure.


actually he is right

and Alabama is nowhere near where the CENTER of this subtropical type system has formed, the storms on the west side WILL be susceptible to those things, since they are not actually part of the true system.

That's why the NHC no longer has the circle in the Gulf.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Might get an invest since we have a center now:



where is the exact fix on the center?
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any new info on jova? did the hh find the center pressure and winds?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
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Wait so, why are people expecting development if the low is moving ashore tonight?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
For y'all that didn't know--

Dry air and wind shear do not really affect Subtropical storms...Here's an example:



^Its become handy the past two days, lol.


Completely untrue. We had a nice batch of showers headed toward central Alabama this morhing. If you check the radar now, you'll see that they've almost completely dissipated due to the very dry air (42% RH) here. All of the shower activity on the west side of this system has been falling apart as it tries to penetrate the dry air associated with the strong high pressure we've had over us all week. The barometer is still at 30.15, which has only fallen from 30.18 in the last 24 hours. Until we can moisten up the atmosphere on the west side of the system and start seeing more rapidly falling pressures, both the dry air and shear will not allow development beyond the existing open trough of low pressure.
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HDOBS #32 approaching the center of Jova. 72Kt max sustained wind and 979.5mb pressure.

000
URPN15 KNHC 091811
AF304 0110E JOVA HDOB 32 20111009
180130 1541N 10752W 6970 03125 0057 +073 -018 249045 048 050 003 00
180200 1542N 10753W 6964 03130 0033 +089 -018 248047 047 051 001 00
180230 1543N 10755W 6970 03114 0032 +087 -015 248047 048 052 004 00
180300 1544N 10756W 6970 03116 0029 +087 -011 246049 051 053 004 00
180330 1545N 10757W 6969 03116 0030 +086 -008 244056 060 053 008 03
180400 1547N 10758W 6974 03101 0032 +076 -005 246053 055 056 009 00
180430 1548N 10759W 6967 03103 0028 +075 -005 241056 058 057 011 00
180500 1549N 10800W 6973 03094 0002 +091 -004 241055 056 055 004 00
180530 1551N 10801W 6967 03095 9992 +095 -002 240056 057 056 003 00
180600 1552N 10802W 6968 03090 9997 +084 +002 240057 058 058 014 00
180630 1554N 10803W 6970 03072 9999 +072 +004 244067 072 063 016 00
180700 1555N 10803W 6973 03059 9977 +079 +003 240065 070 062 014 00
180730 1557N 10804W 6962 03055 9943 +094 +002 244068 072 063 009 00
180800 1558N 10805W 6975 03028 9906 +111 +002 240068 069 068 007 00
180830 1600N 10806W 6962 03029 9887 +112 +004 235068 070 069 009 00
180900 1601N 10807W 6975 02995 9855 +124 +006 228070 073 072 008 00
180930 1603N 10808W 6970 02988 9835 +128 +008 225042 053 044 004 03
181000 1604N 10809W 6965 02984 9801 +148 +011 225028 033 040 002 03
181030 1605N 10811W 6969 02975 9795 +149 +017 224018 019 027 001 03
181100 1606N 10812W 6973 02967 9810 +136 +024 249010 017 022 000 03
$$
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
For y'all that didn't know--

Dry air and wind shear do not really affect Subtropical storms...Here's an example:



^Its become handy the past two days, lol.
1. Thank you Dr. M. 2. What storm is that?
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24 Hr
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Might get an invest since we have a center now:

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Quoting Speeky:
CMC predicts a strong cape verde hurricane emerging later this week.


That's not a hurricane.

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this certainly deserves invest status now, should come shortly
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Winds are about 80mph in 9XL at 8000 feet.

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CMC is predicting a strong cape verde hurricane will be emerging later this week.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


By looking at the Water Vapor Loop you can see that the low off the west coast of FL. is part of the huge overall circulation.
On water vapor you even see dry air completely wrapping around the low off the west coast.
The low off the west coast should get pulled to the north along with the overall system.




yes, it looks like that and the NHC believe the same. I think this is good news for us in Tampa.
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Quoting weatherbro:


I agree with the more reliable Euro model that develops something in the southwest Caribbean this weekend/early next week. But keeps it shunted well south of us(Florida) until at least mid-late next week. Due to two fronts expected to clear the state this Thursday-Saturday. With the nice weather lingering up to Wednesday(the 19th) because of a cut-off low that will be left behind over the central Appalachians.

By the tale end of next week(20th-22nd) after a brief ridge over the East, a powerful tough should set up shop-bringing below average temps the following weekend into the last week of October. Even up and past Halloween weekend!

This should do the trick in boosting this thing Northeastwards towards the Bahama's ahead of an approaching cold front.

However,there might be a gap in-between the departing cut-off low and that long-wave trough through the 18-20th time frame. If so, South Florida might be in for a brief land-falling storm before you see the coolest temps of the season thereafter!
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Rina and Sean should form over the next week or two. Tammy should form before the end of the month. that would put us in Check with last year. Then we might see a november storm. I can agree that we could see one more before October is out(Vince) then finish off the season with Whitney or Alpha...
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Obvious LPA

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Looking at Irwin's track and forecast, it seems rather unusual to me for a storm that's made it as far west as Irwin has to actually impact the MX coast as a tropical storm or hurricane.
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 091804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2011

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 88W...FROM A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST
OF TAMPA TOWARD THE APALACHEE BAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA BEYOND 32N TO THE
WEST OF 70W. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH OF 27N...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN SECTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND MONDAY.
PLEASE READ STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION THAT IS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF 70W...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH CUTS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS. AN INLAND SURFACE
TROUGH REACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. RAINSHOWERS
COVER TEXAS ROUGHLY FROM HOUSTON TO CORPUS CHRISTI TOWARD
LAREDO. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 27N
BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 88W...FROM A LITTLE BIT TO
THE EAST OF TAMPA TOWARD THE APALACHEE BAY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA BEYOND
32N TO THE WEST OF 70W. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO
LESSER THAN GALE FORCE LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO
RANGE FROM 10 TO 13 FEET. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 70W. SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 TO 18 FEET.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY
OCCUPY THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 9OW ALSO REACH INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS FAR AS 13N81W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS EXTEND
FROM 70 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN 70W AND THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA TOWARD HISPANIOLA BETWEEN
70W AND 75W. THIS CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN
AREA OF SURFACE WIND SPEED DIVERGENCE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
ALONG 12N75W...BEYOND NICARAGUA FROM 12N TO 13N...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 77W
AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

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The Google Earth KMZ file for Jova is old.

The plane is about to do a center pass now.
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MM DD TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
kts GST
kts WVHT
ft DPD
sec APD
sec MWD PRES
in PTDY
in ATMP
°F WTMP
°F DEWP
°F SAL
psu VIS
nmi TIDE
ft
10 09 12:50 pm ENE 33.0 42.7 21.7 11 8.3 - 29.89 -0.04 75.2 81.3 68.0 - - -
10 09 12:20 pm ENE 33.0 40.8 21.0 12 8.2 - 29.91 - 76.1 81.1 68.5 - - -
10 09 11:50 am ENE 31.1 36.9 16.4 11 7.1 - 29.91 +0.00 77.9 81.1 68.0 - -
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Recon about to penetrate Jova

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They're enroute.
cant wait what they find. will what they find go into the 5pm advisory?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
23. HaHa! Sarcasm
24. Thanks
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thanks for the sunday afternoon update doc we are having the most beautiful thanks giving weather wise up here in southern ontario

Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EDT Sunday 9 October 2011
Condition: Sunny
Pressure: 30.38 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 79.2°F
Dewpoint: 57.4°F
Humidity: 47 %
Wind: WSW 3 mph
Humidex: 85
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This part is interesting.

Everything is being pulled in a circular motion towards the "low" in the GOM (which could be an upper level feature).

THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6106
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Of course not...The sun just blew up and now darkness is spread across the Earth. Temperatures will plummet, and the planet will become a frozen wasteland.

...
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Rina and Sean and Tammy seems likely within 3 weeks.
Wheres recon goin? I missed that part.

Jova.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Satellite blackout?

Of course not...The sun just blew up and now darkness is spread across the Earth. Temperatures will plummet, and the planet will become a frozen wasteland.
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Rina and Sean and Tammy seems likely within 3 weeks.
Wheres recon goin? I missed that part.
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Satellite blackout?
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XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
26.85N/79.83W
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
GALE-FORCE WINDS FROM NEAR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EASTWARD
OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND MONDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART

They made a perfect-ish circle this time!

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 835 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
MEXICO-GUATEMALA BORDER CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...
HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
GALE-FORCE WINDS FROM NEAR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EASTWARD
OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND MONDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Dr. Masters believe that the Low to the east of Florida is the most dominant. By the way he did not mention anything about the other Low to the southwest of FL.


By looking at the Water Vapor Loop you can see that the low off the west coast of FL. is part of the huge overall circulation.
On water vapor you even see dry air completely wrapping around the low off the west coast.
The low off the west coast should get pulled to the north along with the overall system.

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6106
Thanks Dr. Masters!
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
when are they going out?

They're enroute.
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For y'all that didn't know--

Dry air and wind shear do not really affect Subtropical storms...Here's an example:



^Its become handy the past two days, lol.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon is going to find flight-level winds around 110-115 mph, with surface winds near 95-100 mph.
when are they going out?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
Quoting Progster:
W of south florida there may be a surface circulation also, in the centre of the convective complex offshore as measured by SW florida buoy 42023: Link


We've been watching the low off the S.W. coast of Fl. When looking at the water vapor loop, you can see dry air wrapping around this pivot point.

Key west radar shows the low nicely.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6106
Dr. Masters believe that the Low to the east of Florida is the most dominant. By the way he did not mention anything about the other Low to the southwest of FL.
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Quoting HuracanTaino:
They should give it a check to the system south of Haiti, it looks more tropical in nature, to me at least. Though maybe is nothing, I'm not an expert.


Um they are not flying into the area in the Gulf

they are headed into Jova
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Noticing some spin in the central carribean...any models predicting anything?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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