Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

Share this Blog
19
+

A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 958 - 908

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Jova is a nasty little girl with bad intentions!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


Irene and Lee were NOT uneventful.


Who mentioned "Irene and Lee?"

I'm just pointing out that TWC treated 93L as a nothing event not even worth covering.

While in the past, they have gone over board to hype Tropical Storms that were nothing more than a afternoon breeze.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting surfsidesindy:
Random statement: There's still some very warm waters south of Cuba. Does anyone know if the MJO is officially back in the Caribbean?


getting better all the time,expecting a very strong MJO sigature in Caribbean the next 4 weeks at least
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all. Despite the forecasts, and the weather that hit Key West on Saturday, the weekend was pretty nice down here. We did have a windy Saturday and the rain didn't start until the afternoon. Once the rain passed by, the air was rather chilly. It almost felt like a winter storm or at least our windy November weather that happens just in time for the Powerboat races.

Its a shame that fool family from WPB went fishing with 8 people in a 22 foot center console boat. Don't people read forecasts of weather or at least look around at the sea conditions before going boating? They are lucky they were found. No float plan and not enough PFD's. I am beginning to agree with the Coast Guard that we need to issue driver's licenses for boaters. It should be a felony to be so stupid. But I guess the loss of the one 80 year old woman will haunt them forever.

We are having a beautiful Chamber of Commerce day in Key West. I hope the rest of you stay dry. I am not begrudging the rain because I know soon enough we will be going to water rationing again. Have a good day all.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It was a crazy weekend. In Lake Worth, I barely got a drop of rain. I think PBI measured something like 0.01 inch of rain. Yet, travel a little north or a litte south and you find places that had a few inches. Strange, strange storm. I shoulda washed my car beforehand! ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
953. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
21:00 PM JST October 10 2011
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Eastern Mindanao

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 7.6N 130.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 9.0N 127.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Last night when 93L was making landfall on the Florida's east coast, TWC was showing "Storm Stories." They had real weather going on and they weren't even covering it.

Yet, there's been so many uneventful Tropical Systems with Cantore standing on the beach (live) with the sun shinning along with a 10 mph breeze.

Just found this interesting.


Irene and Lee were NOT uneventful.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I see that GFS shows a system coming extremely close to South Florida near the end of its run.


Good ways out... I think I saw it for the 25th of the month when i posted it earlier.

East coast rider... eye candy for now, but shows the possible.

Interesting stretch we're in.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 946.2mb/117.4kt

2011OCT10 110000 6.4 940.0/ 2.4 /124.6 6.3 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF -10.56 -68.82 EYE 12 IR 16.20 106.95 COMBO

10/0600 UTC 16.3N 107.2W T6.0/6.0 JOVA -- East Pacific

Expect a Category 4 next complete advisory (8AM PDT/11AM EDT)...


Lets hope she does a 180 turn back out to sea!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see that GFS shows a system coming extremely close to South Florida near the end of its run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can't believe the National Hurricane Center...still disappointed there was a closed low-level circulation with deep convection and winds of 45-50 mph+ and they didn't classify it.

They broke their own definition of what a Subtropical Storm is...Being inconsistent this season and its irritating me.


Have you or anyone sent them a e-mail? I'm curious to hear what they have to say other than the convection wasn't organized enough!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Last night when 93L was making landfall on the Florida's east coast, TWC was showing "Storm Stories." They had real weather going on and they weren't even covering it.

Yet, there's been so many uneventful Tropical Systems with Cantore standing on the beach (live) with the sun shinning along with a 10 mph breeze.

Just found this interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
People are certainly free to debate the was-it-or-wasn't-it aspects of yesterday's low. If nothing else, as Chicklit alluded to, that's one way people learn. But the ever-present bashing of the NHC does get tiresome. Not that that's confined to Weather Undeground: one well-known (but quite often wrong) met flooded Twitter last evening and again this morning with a string of "WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE NHC?!?!?! THEY CLASSIFIED JOSE BUT NOT THIS?!?!"-type comments.

Anyway, a couple of things to remember:

--While the folks at the NHC aren't infallible--that is, they're only human--they do tend to know more about tropical weather than anyone here. Lots more. I've visited the NHC office several times (I worked for a while mere blocks from the place), and have to say that those guys are as well-educated, highly-experienced, passionate, and professional a group of people as I've ever seen. They may not get it right every time, but they surely strive to.

--In my own unprofessional opinion, the storm did seem to exhibit a number of tropical characteristics, at least for awhile. I'm pretty sure that if I saw them and you saw them, the folks at the NHC--who, after all, spend all day every day looking at swirls--probably saw them to. And if, in the post-season analysis, they determine that the low's cloud patterns were a close enough fit to the subtropical storm intensity estimates, and if the TAFB surface analysis verifies the non-frontal nature of the surface low, and if they determine that there were no significant temperature changes from the passage of the low, and if the AMSU temp analysis shows that the low had a warm core, and if the low's wind radii were large enough, they will almost certainly classify it later as a subtropical storm.

--On the other hand, if they don't find those tropical characteristics, they'll leave it as is.

--As has been said before, the NHC just can't win. For the dozens of people irate this morning that they didn't classify it, there are just as many more who would be angry had the NHC gone ahead and classified; we'd doubtless hear non-stop comments about how they'd named it "just to inflate the numbers" (which insinuates that they're paid for every swirl they name). But I reckon one would have to be prepared for that working there.

--Bottom line: what does it really matter whether the NHC named it? Other than die-hard weather enthusiasts like us, is the world any different either way?


Great comment.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7305
COC of the UNNAMED Subtropical Storm is slightly west of the ball of convection.

Beautiful!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

This storm is so scary. So many people in that area don't have strongly built houses and live in harms way. Lot's of canyons to cause flash flooding. Saying my prayers for them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:


What's the number?

It depends on the debate. You're right, it makes little difference whether it has a name or classified providing there are adequate notifications of impending weather. However, it is not just about the human impact, it's also about recording weather accurately for trends and correlations etc.

It can't just be reduced to shikata ga nai.

Just you often find the same people complaining in their view it should be a storm or whether it shouldn't. The NHC can and should be questioned when it is merited. That said, if it was more weighted in methodical science then fine, but often there's more opinionated stances doused in hysterics and conspiracy.


It is amusing, though.


Just my complex scoring scale for comments, which is to say I make it up.

Your observations fall in line with my thinking... but I think you did a better job of articulating it.

"OMG it's a tropical storm!"

It's part of the hysterics.

One of my favorites that I've heard before on here is "if this becomes a named system it's gonna explode." or something to that effect.

The weather doesn't care what we call it.

And yes, from a scientific perspective and to develop trends in the climatology it's very important, and can be reviewed over time, but in the moment when the event is happening, the safety of those impacted is paramount.

I suspect this system will get revisited in the near future, it has tremendous value scientifically... in that it was unusual and gave the mets some identification issues, which shows it was something weird.

But in terms of keeping the public informed, they did pretty well with the conditions.

I guess for the average Joe at least, for example, he'd rather know he's gonna get 100mph winds and a foot of rain than figure out what category the storm is.

The science can always be reviewed, and with this one I'm sure it will.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can't believe the National Hurricane Center...still disappointed there was a closed low-level circulation with deep convection and winds of 45-50 mph+ and they didn't classify it.

They broke their own definition of what a Subtropical Storm is...Being inconsistent this season and its irritating me.


Unfortunately, you will be disappointed often. The only thing that is consistent, is their inconsistency. Although I do "bow down" to their expertise and reasoning. (and to some others on here)

In this case, other than a name and a number of storms formed this season it doesn't make a difference. Although you would be happier economically if you had sustained damage to your house. Your homeowners deductible would be a lot less.

Maybe in the season review it will get classified. Kind of like the no-name storm of 1999 that hit South Florida. I couldn't believe that one wasn't named at the time, and in season review it was released that it should have.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
941. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAMON
5:00 PM PhST October 10 2011
===================================

Tropical Depression "RAMON" has maintained its strenght as it continues to move in a Westward direction.

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Ramon located at 7.5°N 129.7°E or 560 km east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Mindanao Region
==============
1. Surigao Del Norte
2. Siargao Island
3. Surigao Del Sur
4. Dinagat Group of Islands

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think the NHC will probably classify yesterday's storm as an STS in the post-season review. Suddenly putting up TS warnings at the last minute probably would have caused more panic and confusion than it was worth, possibly driving people out into the storm into unnecessary danger. Yes they blew the call from a scientific and forecasting standpoint, but considering the public's safety they did the right thing, and the public's safety is at the core of their mission.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not to mention.. my four dogs are happy to be playing in the newly created lake in the back yard- not bad for a Monday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whepton3:


107.635.

Maybe I'm off here, but I've never latched onto the debate over does it get a name, not get a name, is it a TD, TS, STS, or a hurricane.

The systems that we classify now happened long before we were classifying them.

The weather is the weather. If people are adequately warned of the conditions and can prepare and protect themselves, then that's good enough for me. That's part of the mission statements of both the NHC and the NWS.

The rest is sometimes just scenery.


What's the number?

It depends on the debate. You're right, it makes little difference whether it has a name or classified providing there are adequate notifications of impending weather. However, it is not just about the human impact, it's also about recording weather accurately for trends and correlations etc.

It can't just be reduced to shikata ga nai.

Just you often find the same people complaining in their view it should be a storm or whether it shouldn't. The NHC can and should be questioned when it is merited. That said, if it was more weighted in methodical science then fine, but often there's more opinionated stances doused in hysterics and conspiracy.


It is amusing, though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
Levi even mentioned last night that experts can be questioned. He was frustrated as well last night, alot of people were, still are. The debate, whether you all like it or not, will continue on. We may not be experts, but we have seen evidence on the phase maps, obs, and satellite/radar presentations. We will continue to questions the actions of the NHC, sure Levi will agree to this as well.

You even have local METS and Accuweather METS scratching their heads at the NHC for this one..
oh yeah. remember post season they could upgrade anything but what would be bad is that if we do get tropical storm rina, what would 93L have been called?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1370
Levi even mentioned last night that experts can be questioned. He was frustrated as well last night, alot of people were, still are. The debate, whether you all like it or not, will continue on. We may not be experts, but we have seen evidence on the phase maps, obs, and satellite/radar presentations. We will continue to questions the actions of the NHC, sure Levi will agree to this as well.

You even have local METS and Accuweather METS scratching their heads at the NHC for this one..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok. So we had a windy wet weekend. But Florida needed the rain. So what's a little yard work or a few hours without electricity?

This is a small price to pay for getting something truly needed...RAIN!!!... without the sustained hurricane winds.

have a nice day everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"But the ever-present bashing of the NHC does get tiresome."


And you certainly know a thing or two about tiresome debates.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
People are certainly free to debate the was-it-or-wasn't-it aspects of yesterday's low. If nothing else, as Chicklit alluded to, that's one way people learn. But the ever-present bashing of the NHC does get tiresome. Not that that's confined to Weather Undeground: one well-known (but quite often wrong) met flooded Twitter last evening and again this morning with a string of "WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE NHC?!?!?! THEY CLASSIFIED JOSE BUT NOT THIS?!?!"-type comments.

Anyway, a couple of things to remember:

--While the folks at the NHC aren't infallible--that is, they're only human--they do tend to know more about tropical weather than anyone here. Lots more. I've visited the NHC office several times (I worked for a while mere blocks from the place), and have to say that those guys are as well-educated, highly-experienced, passionate, and professional a group of people as I've ever seen. They may not get it right every time, but they surely strive to.

--In my own unprofessional opinion, the storm did seem to exhibit a number of tropical characteristics, at least for awhile. I'm pretty sure that if I saw them and you saw them, the folks at the NHC--who, after all, spend all day every day looking at swirls--probably saw them to. And if, in the post-season analysis, they determine that the low's cloud patterns were a close enough fit to the subtropical storm intensity estimates, and if the TAFB surface analysis verifies the non-frontal nature of the surface low, and if they determine that there were no significant temperature changes from the passage of the low, and if the AMSU temp analysis shows that the low had a warm core, and if the low's wind radii were large enough, they will almost certainly classify it later as a subtropical storm.

--On the other hand, if they don't find those tropical characteristics, they'll leave it as is.

--As has been said before, the NHC just can't win. For the dozens of people irate this morning that they didn't classify it, there are just as many more who would be angry had the NHC gone ahead and classified; we'd doubtless hear non-stop comments about how they'd named it "just to inflate the numbers" (which insinuates that they're paid for every swirl they name). But I reckon one would have to be prepared for that working there.

--Bottom line: what does it really matter whether the NHC named it? Other than die-hard weather enthusiasts like us, is the world any different either way?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
Good Evening all. I hope everyone is fine and not needing floaties or a row boat in Fla.

Just about to sit down and watch Tornado Swarm 2011 that I recorded from earlier tonight on Nat Geo. I know I am going to be blown away by the personal stories. I'll come back later with a review. Cheers Aussie


I sure could have used either or today. My yard is a mass of branches floating on standing water, mixing with the pool water (which is overflowing). I'm not complaining though...FL can use every drop of it! Getting to work on time with trees down and transformers blowing was tricky though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
81mph recorded at playalinda lucky no name made landfall on the shores of mosquito lagoon gator land
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4366
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
NHC really screwed this one big time, look!! There's still convection west of the center.




That photo probably isn't real good evidence that they should have named this. That looks like a giant blob of rain and nothing else.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
First visible image of the day..

UNNAMED Subtropical Storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:
But but but...

I thought the NHC were only interested in padding the stats!?

;)


107.635.

Maybe I'm off here, but I've never latched onto the debate over does it get a name, not get a name, is it a TD, TS, STS, or a hurricane.

The systems that we classify now happened long before we were classifying them.

The weather is the weather. If people are adequately warned of the conditions and can prepare and protect themselves, then that's good enough for me. That's part of the mission statements of both the NHC and the NWS.

The rest is sometimes just scenery.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
Good Evening all. I hope everyone is fine and not needing floaties or a row boat in Fla.

Just about to sit down and watch Tornado Swarm 2011 that I recorded from earlier tonight on Nat Geo. I know I am going to be blown away by the personal stories. I'll come back later with a review. Cheers Aussie


Some folks around here had to wear floaties in their row boat! had 7 1/2" total rain and 75-80 mph wind gusts here in Central East FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Random statement: There's still some very warm waters south of Cuba. Does anyone know if the MJO is officially back in the Caribbean?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC screwed this one to, in 2008.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC really screwed this one big time, look!! There's still convection west of the center.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Evening all. I hope everyone is fine and not needing floaties or a row boat in Fla.

Just about to sit down and watch Tornado Swarm 2011 that I recorded from earlier tonight on Nat Geo. I know I am going to be blown away by the personal stories. I'll come back later with a review. Cheers Aussie
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
But but but...

I thought the NHC were only interested in padding the stats!?

;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, I'm off...Be back this afternoon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can't believe the National Hurricane Center...still disappointed there was a closed low-level circulation with deep convection and winds of 45-50 mph+ and they didn't classify it.

They broke their own definition of what a Subtropical Storm is...Being inconsistent this season and its irritating me.


The ole "Beauty in the eye of the beholder debate".

They followed the NWS Directive: Tropical Cyclone Weather Services Program, NWSPD 10-6

Section 2.1

2.1 Subtropical Cyclone Public Advisories (TCP). NHC will issue subtropical cyclone advisories. However, due to the lack of well-defined criteria for distinguishing subtropical from non-tropical lows, marginally-subtropical systems may be handled as non-tropical gale or storm centers in High Seas forecast products.


This endless debate will contine since tropical/subtropical designation is a subjective process.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 946.2mb/117.4kt

2011OCT10 110000 6.4 940.0/ 2.4 /124.6 6.3 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF -10.56 -68.82 EYE 12 IR 16.20 106.95 COMBO

10/0600 UTC 16.3N 107.2W T6.0/6.0 JOVA -- East Pacific

Expect a Category 4 next complete advisory (8AM PDT/11AM EDT)...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Just read the 8 am TWD and there seems to be a couple of areas where there is some possibility. Very overcast here this morning and had some showers just a little while ago.


I feel pretty confident that the activity will increase over the coming days.

There may be a lot of overcast and questionable stuff in your part of the world... and mine here in S. FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whepton3:


It looks like Crown WX is seeing the possibility of the tropical wave to the east of your surface low being the catalyst for the Yucatan system.
Just read the 8 am TWD and there seems to be a couple of areas where there is some possibility. Very overcast here this morning and had some showers just a little while ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Poor, poor Mexico..And Jova's intensity is still being underdone right now...All T#'s have it at least 135 mph.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Quoting robert88:
Jova looking better...



Say a prayer for the people in her path.Possible Cat 3 storm at landfall with 120+ winds and 4-12 inches of rain in the mountains near landfall location.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I hope not because that would bring it right over me :)


It looks like Crown WX is seeing the possibility of the tropical wave to the east of your surface low being the catalyst for the Yucatan system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaCat5:
Everyone is asleep while Subtropical storm UNNAMED is forming or passing north of Ocala. Perhaps just a temporary swirl. Was not there 3 hours ago.



Also NWS Tampa Bay Analysis:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
310 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. THE 500 MB CIRCULATION SHOWS A LOW OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL LOSE ITS
DEFINITION AND THE LOW OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
CENTER AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS. THIS LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER
LONGWAVE TROUGH AT 500MB PUSHES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
KEEPS THE PATTERN PROGRESSIVE.
This is interesting about the low over GOM becoming the primary center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I can't believe the National Hurricane Center...still disappointed there was a closed low-level circulation with deep convection and winds of 45-50 mph+ and they didn't classify it.

They broke their own definition of what a Subtropical Storm is...Being inconsistent this season and its irritating me.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Interesting tidbit from Crown Weather this morning.



I’m wondering if we may see another organized disturbance form about 100 miles or so offshore of Florida’s east coast this afternoon. The high resolution rapid refresh model (HRRR model) is hinting that an area of disorganized convection stretching from the central Caribbean northward through the Bahamas may spin off a low pressure system off of the east coast of Florida; in fact, both the radar imagery forecast & the wind field forecast both show a curly-Q signature of a developing low pressure system with 70 mph wind gusts with this developing low pressure system. So, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to see another Invest situation (Invest 94?) this afternoon into tonight.


This is the first morning in a while I didn't run over there and read Rob's discussion.

The SAT loops show something trying to get going over there... I thought it was curious and didn't follow up on it.

Interesting. My suspicion is that from where it is it's headed north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
It looks like 93L is right on top of me in
Gainesville, FL (7:15 EST). I woke up at 4:00 AM this morning to thunder & heavy rain. It seems to have tapered off some in the last half hour as the heaviest rains seem to be on the West side of the low. The big question is whether or not this heads into the northern GOM.


You are near the eye of the...

Never mind. That discussion got heated here yesterday apparently.

Rough weather for you. Big blast of convection in your part of FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 958 - 908

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
53 °F
Mostly Cloudy