Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

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A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting presslord:


going to Fleet Landing for dinner tonight...the Harbor should be churning up pretty good...the ocean sure is...


Hub's b'day dinner...Andy wants Red Lobster (personally i think it is YUCK) but that is where we are going...
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:



these models




I wanna know what the TVCN thinks. That model is the one the NHC relies on for track forecasts (most of the time).
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:



these models





yup like I said, the crappy ones, they are always release first and a rarely right from what I have seen
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


um NHC says its moving WNW and what models are you seeing exactly?

The crappy ones that are always the first ones to be released?

I think this has a pretty good chance of emerging into the Gulf



these models



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LinkSomethingTellsMeWe'rAbouttoGetSlammed

It's always a little uncomfortable when the arrows are going in all different directions and it's a low heading straight for you.Link
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


:P


going to Fleet Landing for dinner tonight...the Harbor should be churning up pretty good...the ocean sure is...
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Great News for Tampa. Looks like 93L is not going to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico and move NW intead of WNW according to the track models.


um NHC says its moving WNW and what models are you seeing exactly?

The crappy ones that are always the first ones to be released?

I think this has a pretty good chance of emerging into the Gulf
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Quoting sar2401:


What does a satellite picture from 9/02 have to do with anything now? Maybe I'm just missing the joke....

Well, I was on this website looking for satellite imagery and when I clicked on 93L, it showed me that image of September's 93L.
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Quoting presslord:


stop it


:P
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Great News for Tampa. Looks like 93L is not going to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico and move NW intead of WNW according to the track models.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
Ok...just popped on for a few...i am a bit confused... Dr. M said it would go across FL and into the panhandle yet the model map shows sweeping the East Coast...anyone care to clarify this for me... tia


stop it
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...wrong 93L. LOL

RAMMB FAIL


What does a satellite picture from 9/02 have to do with anything now? Maybe I'm just missing the joke....
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Quoting Tazmanian:
what dos SS mean?


Super Soaker? That is what this system has been:)
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Quoting luvtogolf:


After this rain moves out in a short while, what are you thought for additional rain in Pinellas County coming from these 2 lows?


Hopefully not much more..... my roof is leaking yet again.

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Quoting Jedkins01:
By the way, our little low off the East Coast is moving right into the coast, gusty winds and torrential rain will be accompanied as it moves onshore.

The CMC and NAM were right, 2 separate areas of low pressure taking shape, one the gulf and one in the Atlantic near the East Coast.


After this rain moves out in a short while, what are you thought for additional rain in Pinellas County coming from these 2 lows?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


actually he is right

and Alabama is nowhere near where the CENTER of this subtropical type system has formed, the storms on the west side WILL be susceptible to those things, since they are not actually part of the true system.

That's why the NHC no longer has the circle in the Gulf.


H101, my point exactly. The NHC moved the circle and now has invest 93L in the Atlantic because the dry air and shear did did interfere with the formation of a GOM system. If we had less wind shear and less dry air nosing down in to the Gulf, 93L may have been able to develop into a larger system. It seems silly to say that dry air and shear doesn't have an effect on any storm, subtropical or tropical.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Im just saying that if this were not a classifiable system they would have put LO for Low or DB for Disturbance even if its subtropical

SS stands for Subtropical Storm


ok
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...wrong 93L. LOL

RAMMB FAIL
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We have Subtropical Storm Invest 93L. XD

Wait...what?
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Quoting biloxibob:
Could the system strengthen in the gulf?


93L is highly subtropical.

I doubt it strengthens much at all.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



ok


Im just saying that if this were not a classifiable system they would have put LO for Low or DB for Disturbance even if its subtropical

SS stands for Subtropical Storm
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By the way, our little low off the East Coast is moving right into the coast, gusty winds and torrential rain will be accompanied as it moves onshore.

The CMC and NAM were right, 2 separate areas of low pressure taking shape, one the gulf and one in the Atlantic near the East Coast.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7828
Ok...just popped on for a few...i am a bit confused... Dr. M said it would go across FL and into the panhandle yet the model map shows sweeping the East Coast...anyone care to clarify this for me... tia
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Melbourne WSR is picking up winds of around 93mph at 7200 feet.



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Could the system strengthen in the gulf?
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subtropical storm
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east side of florida not west........ are the HH in the center of jova or not yet?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1725
We have Subtropical Storm Invest 93L. XD
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505

93L
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


SS means Subtropical Storm

hmmmmm



ok
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Whoa! O_o
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


O_o

LOL
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No disrespect towards Dr. Masters, but rain is not limited on the West Coast of Florida due to dry air. Precipitable Water values are over 2 inches over the eastern Gulf and West Coast of Florida.

Rainfall has been limited on the West Coast of Florida due to unpredictable variances in where areas of convergence and where lift occurs for development. Rainfall was also limited on the West Coast overnight and last night due to a stable layer along the Coast, with is a common occurrence on opposing coasts to where the wind direction is headed.

The East side of State has had way more rain because it became an area of surface convergence beneath the upper divergence overhead, this then in turn produced stable air over the West Coast, but not dry by any means.

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7828
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


LOL

Perfect

AL, 93, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS,


O_o
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


LOL

Perfect

AL, 93, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS,


SS means Subtropical Storm

hmmmmm
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Quoting Tazmanian:
what dos SS mean?

Subtropical maybe?
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pressure dropping, wind speed rising at the cape canaveral bouy Dr. Masters cites in his blog
Link
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what dos SS mean?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


LOL

Perfect

AL, 93, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS,

Whoa! O_o
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Somewhere near 27.4, 79.4


LOL

Perfect

AL, 93, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS,
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Quoting trey33:
Thanks Taz



welcome
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Quoting Tazmanian:
hey all look what i found


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110091821
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2011, DB, O, 2011100918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932011
AL, 93, 2011100818, , BEST, 0, 240N, 770W, 35, 1011, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100900, , BEST, 0, 250N, 773W, 35, 1010, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100906, , BEST, 0, 260N, 778W, 35, 1009, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100912, , BEST, 0, 268N, 785W, 35, 1008, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 225, 1015, 275, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

HALLELUJAH!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nice catch Taz, we have 93L off the coast of Florida.



thanks
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Thanks Taz
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get a name soon? could even intensify as its crossing over
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4862
still not alarmed with 93L....Florida say no no to development lol =P
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Nice catch Taz, we have 93L off the coast of Florida.
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First pass on Jova:

70 knots

979-980mb
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hey all look what i found


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110091821
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2011, DB, O, 2011100918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932011
AL, 93, 2011100818, , BEST, 0, 240N, 770W, 35, 1011, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100900, , BEST, 0, 250N, 773W, 35, 1010, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100906, , BEST, 0, 260N, 778W, 35, 1009, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100912, , BEST, 0, 268N, 785W, 35, 1008, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 225, 1015, 275, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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