Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

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A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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Strong thunderstorms inching their way towards the Space Coast.

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EP, 10, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1083W, 80, 978, HU
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I got a bad feeling about this.

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Quoting IceCoast:


Impressive, but the stronger velocity's to the east are being picked up pretty high in the atmosphere, and aren't a representation of surface winds. Still cool to look at, you got to love doppler.


Yeah..
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow..



Impressive, but the stronger velocity's to the east are being picked up pretty high in the atmosphere, and aren't a representation of surface winds. Still cool to look at, you got to love doppler.

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I think it's safe to wash the car now. Sunny, breezy day here in Jupiter, FL. Dry air taking hold.
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151. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
When and where is this coming ashore?


For days I've leaned with the CMC on the low in eastern GOM. Where it does a little counterclockwise near circle & dies off the Yucatan.
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 18:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 10E in 2011
Storm Name: Jova (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 18:11:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°08'N 108°13'W (16.1333N 108.2167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 369 miles (594 km) to the SSW (212°) from Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,939m (9,642ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 227° at 73kts (From the SW at ~ 84.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SE (136°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 980mb (28.94 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,054m (10,020ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 1°C (34°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the northeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 18:09:10Z
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any news on jova?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
U realize OPC/TAFB don't have anything analysed there....



Was trying to post this earlier.

EDIT: a closer view:


Well, whatever it is, it has rotation to it.
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147. Skyepony (Mod)
93L~ I've been leaning toward a track somewhere between the BAMS & BAMM. Cross over central FL (this evening), NFL (tonight) & the panhandle (tomorrow), GA & SC on Tuesday, spreading into NC on wed..
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Close-up...


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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
It's just ab-solutley massive.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Two vorticity maximums. The one to the east is very strong.

yeah, wondering if that one will stay off-shore.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
A little north of west. Check the steering maps.

I need better glasses. XD
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It even seems like it could go due west if it heads into FL.
A little north of west. Check the steering maps.
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Quoting Drakoen:


When it gets into the eastern GOM I think it will have a better chance. The models show some coalescence of the low level vorticity.

ok.
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When and where is this coming ashore?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Is it going to develop Drak?


When it gets into the eastern GOM I think it will have a better chance. The models show some coalescence of the low level vorticity.
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If wind speed is the criteria then 93L is an STS.Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow..


What?! How could it be...
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Quoting Drakoen:
Great Satellite loop on 93L. You can see some low level rotation going on to the east of Florida. The latest ECMWF 12z suggests that the area of low pressure will move into the eastern GOM and make landfall around the panhandle of Florida.

Is it going to develop Drak?
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Considering the complex mess of the situation... GFS had the dominant LP nailed for days in advance off the EC of FL....not bad
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Wow..

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, in a sense, the ECMWF nailed it as well. It had a low pressure area developing in the Gulf of Mexico, and one in the Bahamas. However, it got the strength of them mixed -- It showed the GOMEX more dominant than the Bahamas one, which is the opposite here.


True...but it failed showing the dominant LP in the E GOM. You have to give credit to the GFS. It's been doing fairly well.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Great Satellite loop on 93L. You can see some low level rotation going on to the east of Florida. The latest ECMWF 12z suggests that the area of low pressure will move into the eastern GOM and make landfall around the panhandle of Florida.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We'll have to watch this tropical wave as well as it moves very slowly towards the west...May be the catalyst of a tropical system in the Caribbean by the end of this week and into this weekend.

U realize OPC/TAFB don't have anything analysed there....



Was trying to post this earlier.

EDIT: a closer view:

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting Hurricanes101:


steering certainly suggests WNW

It even seems like it could go due west if it heads into FL.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, in a sense, the ECMWF nailed it as well. It had a low pressure area developing in the Gulf of Mexico, and one in the Bahamas. However, it got the strength of them mixed -- It showed the GOMEX more dominant than the Bahamas one, which is the opposite here.


robert has failed to look at the steering and the fact that the nhc says its going to move into the Gulf of Mexico

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
GALE-FORCE WINDS FROM NEAR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EASTWARD
OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND MONDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Current steering for 93L.


steering certainly suggests WNW
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Two vorticity maximums. The one to the east is very strong.
Also noting the vortmax over the CV Islands.... seems rather high [far north] for this time of year..
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting robert88:
93L isn't going into the GOM. GFS has been advertising the LP forming off the EC of FL and riding up the coast making landfall from N FL to the Carolinas. I would go with the GFS since it beat out all the others. I am surprised the almighty ECMWF didn't nail this one.

Well, in a sense, the ECMWF nailed it as well. It had a low pressure area developing in the Gulf of Mexico, and one in the Bahamas. However, it got the strength of them mixed -- It showed the GOMEX more dominant than the Bahamas one, which is the opposite here.
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Current steering for 93L.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We'll have to watch this tropical wave as well as it moves very slowly towards the west...May be the catalyst of a tropical system in the Caribbean by the end of this week and into this weekend.




well, the thing is that according to the NHC, that feature is not a tropical wave.
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93L isn't going into the GOM. GFS has been advertising the LP forming off the EC of FL and riding up the coast making landfall from N FL to the Carolinas. I would go with the GFS since it beat out all the others. I am surprised the almighty ECMWF didn't nail this one.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We'll have to watch this tropical wave as well as it moves very slowly towards the west...May be the catalyst of a tropical system in the Caribbean by the end of this week and into this weekend.


Has decent vorticity, too.
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Good afternoon... getting a bit more breezy now that STS is taking shape offshore.
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117. JLPR2
Quoting Chicklit:


The Caribbean disturbance is looking nice.
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We'll have to watch this tropical wave as well as it moves very slowly towards the west...May be the catalyst of a tropical system in the Caribbean by the end of this week and into this weekend.

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192

WHXX01 KWBC 091823

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1823 UTC SUN OCT 9 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INVEST (AL932011) 20111009 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

111009 1800 111010 0600 111010 1800 111011 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 27.4N 79.4W 28.7N 81.8W 29.9N 83.8W 30.6N 85.1W

BAMD 27.4N 79.4W 29.8N 80.4W 32.1N 82.0W 34.7N 83.1W

BAMM 27.4N 79.4W 28.9N 81.1W 30.3N 82.7W 31.5N 83.7W

LBAR 27.4N 79.4W 29.3N 80.9W 31.3N 82.4W 33.4N 83.4W

SHIP 35KTS 39KTS 44KTS 45KTS

DSHP 35KTS 32KTS 29KTS 27KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

111011 1800 111012 1800 111013 1800 111014 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 31.4N 85.3W 33.7N 83.3W 38.1N 77.3W 44.8N 73.1W

BAMD 37.5N 83.3W 44.4N 81.4W 50.6N 80.8W 54.2N 85.6W

BAMM 32.9N 83.9W 37.4N 81.8W 43.8N 79.2W 48.1N 81.4W

LBAR 35.8N 83.8W 42.0N 79.1W 46.0N 64.9W 45.9N 52.0W

SHIP 43KTS 36KTS 26KTS 0KTS

DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 27.4N LONCUR = 79.4W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 26.0N LONM12 = 77.8W DIRM12 = 329DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 24.0N LONM24 = 77.0W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 35KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 275NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 225NM RD34SE = 250NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 225NM



$$

NNNN
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Quoting presslord:


going to Fleet Landing for dinner tonight...the Harbor should be churning up pretty good...the ocean sure is...


plus, trying to find a used Kayak at a decent price for my oldest...his got stolen out of the back of his truck...he was gone for like 3 minutes...feel bad for him so want to try to replace it...
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Quoting Chicklit:

Two vorticity maximums. The one to the east is very strong.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:



I hope they are correct because that track should not let this system to organize too much.


agreed, I don't think many realize how much rain Central Florida has had the last 4 months

Here in Pineallas county, we had a thunderstorm a few weeks back that flooded many of the roads here
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7686
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yup like I said, the crappy ones, they are always release first and a rarely right from what I have seen



I hope they are correct because that track should not let this system to organize too much.
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Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I wanna know what the TVCN thinks. That model is the one the NHC relies on for track forecasts (most of the time).


Id wait for the GFS, CMC, NOGAPS and ECMWF to come out

The BAMM suite, LBAR and CLP models are not very accurate IMO, especially on their initial runs.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7686
Quoting presslord:


going to Fleet Landing for dinner tonight...the Harbor should be churning up pretty good...the ocean sure is...


Hub's b'day dinner...Andy wants Red Lobster (personally i think it is YUCK) but that is where we are going...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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