Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

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A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Skyepony:
The squalls & rain from 93L have arrived to my backyard in Eau Gallie, the north end of Melbourne..




Hey there! On Eau Gallie also - beachshide here in Indian Harbour Beach - HOLY CRAP I thought last night was bad - this afternoon went downhill FAST...
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looks like the invest could make landfall near melb. seems to be organizing acc/ to nws melb. radar
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The wind is becoming a bit more concerning to me. So far the strongest gusts have only be 40 mph, but with the ground so saturated I think we could see more damage from falling trees.

Pressure has been falling slightly but steadily all afternoon. Currently 1007. Central Merritt Island.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 86

...JOVA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
2:00 PM PDT Sun Oct 9
Location: 16.2°N 107.9°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: E at 8 mph
Min pressure: 976 mb
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204. Skyepony (Mod)
stormpetrol~ I'm seeing some midlevel west winds, Winds I' could get behind.. ASCAT earlier shows something that could be getting hazerdous for boaters & such..
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Quoting stormpetrol:


West/WSW winds now with the AOI in the central Caribbean, could interesting, I would think a yellow circle at 8 pm est.
Yes, the SST'S are SCREAMING HOT!
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
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Quoting druseljic:
So are you guys seeing any rainfall in the panhandle? Local forecast isn't calling for much. Will the low to the W of FL bring any?

I'm just wanting rain I guess...
I don't think locations to the west of appalachicola will receive much
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011

...IRWIN MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 119.3W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011

...JOVA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 107.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
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So are you guys seeing any rainfall in the panhandle? Local forecast isn't calling for much. Will the low to the W of FL bring any?

I'm just wanting rain I guess...
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Corrected to west/wsw winds see comment #192
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196. Skyepony (Mod)
The squalls & rain from 93L have arrived to my backyard in Eau Gallie, the north end of Melbourne..


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Levi, you called it way back,nice job, I follow your posts-now if we can get some offshore winds around Ponce inlet, then I'll be on it.....it has been an outstanding surf season this summer!!
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Winds winds now with the AOI in the central Caribbean, could interesting, I would think a yellow circle at 8 pm est.
I thought it was pretty interesting they didn't even have a Twave analysed this afternoon.... would have expected SOME indication of what's causing the activity in that area.... I didn't even note a comment about upper level anything...... Hmmmmm.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21418
193. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting stormpetrol:


Winds winds now with the AOI in the central Caribbean, could interesting, I would think a yellow circle at 8 pm est.


I agree..
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West/WSW winds now with the AOI in the central Caribbean, could interesting, I would think a yellow circle at 8 pm est.
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ECMWF and GFS advertising a storm in the Caribbean. GFS takes it ENE over Cuba and out to sea and the ECMWF looks like it buries it in the Yucatan and the BOC. Split the difference and maybe it ends up in the E GOM. Way too early to speculate on direction at this point.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Quoting Levi32:



Almost here..
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12z ECMWF has a tremendous amount of precip in the Caribbean.

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.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114702
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Levi, show us the MJO phase diagram?


Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Levi, show us the MJO phase diagram?
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I applaud you for calling this about a week ago, levi. bravo.

Give him an even bigger applaud if we get Caribbean development later this week and into next week...He's called that since the first of September.
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Quoting starbuck02:


What am I looking at here?


That is base velocity from a WSR-88D doppler radar. It can detect radial velocities of an object by using the phase shift of a received radar signal relative to the frequency of the transmitted signal. If the target is moving slightly away or toward the radar, there will be a slight phase shift. As the speed of the target increases, the phase shift will also increase, producing an increasing Doppler frequency shift.

source- Radar for Meteorologists, Ronald Rinehart
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Quoting Levi32:
Despite all but one of the top models forecasting otherwise, the lowest pressures are east of Florida this afternoon. It just goes to show that there is still a place for human forecasting logic, and it can prevail over the computer, as it has done here.

I applaud you for calling this about a week ago, levi. bravo.
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello everybody how much rain and wind we can expect from this system down here in Miami Florida?,are we going to get all the tail moisture as the low move across Central Florida,thank you!!.
You've already had the worst weather you can expect from this system. Central Florida (especially on the east coast from canaveral north) can expect the worst. The west coast can expect some heavy weather when the system deepens in the gulf and drags a strong warm front northward.
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sudden surge in winds and moderate rain e cen fl. pressure drop
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Despite all but one of the top models forecasting otherwise, the lowest pressures are east of Florida this afternoon. It just goes to show that there is still a place for human forecasting logic, and it can prevail over the computer, as it has done here.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Drakoen:
Central and Northern Florida look to cash in on this as the swath of rain will generally be moving towards the west or west-northwest. Numerical models show this well maintaining a degree of organized convection impacting the state.
Seems to be a good moisture flow up from the CAR as well. Unless it wraps a lot more than I expect, I guess the NW Bahamas will get another round of showers as 93L heads off to the NW...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21418
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Current steering for 93L.
That pressure gradient is insane. I'm right in the thick of it and it feels like it looks.
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GOM blob is definitely moving N.E. This could bring some weather to S.W. Florida tonight.
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Hello everybody how much rain and wind we can expect from this system down here in Miami Florida?,are we going to get all the tail moisture as the low move across Central Florida,thank you!!.
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Quoting Sangria:
I do not know how to post an animated radar graphic, so hopefully this question will make sense without it. It looks like the cells of rain NW of Orlando are moving in a direction of just S of West, and the cells down in the Tampa area seem to be moving N of
West. Can someone explain why the difference? Or am I not seeing it correctly?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



your a little too late i was the 1st too see it and post it

I know. I found out a little bit ago.
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I do not know how to post an animated radar graphic, so hopefully this question will make sense without it. It looks like the cells of rain NW of Orlando are moving in a direction of just S of West, and the cells down in the Tampa area seem to be moving N of
West. Can someone explain why the difference? Or am I not seeing it correctly?
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Radar base velocities:

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Quoting aspectre:
Great catch as usual, Tasmanian.
Invest93L's_9Oct_6pmGMT_ATCF
24.0n77.0w, 25.0n77.3w, 26.0n77.8w, 26.8n78.5w, 27.4n79.4w are its recent positions
Starting 8Oct_6pmGMT and ending 9Oct_6pmGMT

The 4 southeastern line-segments represent Invest93L's path,
and the northwesternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
Invest93L's travel-speed was 11.5mph(18.5k/h) on a heading of 306.9degrees(NW)
Invest93L was headed toward passage over DaKineDiego'sInsaneBurrito*SatelliteBeach,Florida ~6hours from now

Copy&paste 24.0n77.0w-25.0n77.3w, 25.0n77.3w-26.0n77.8w, 26.0n77.8w-26.8n78.5w, 26.8n78.5w-27.4n79.4w, 26.8n78.5w-28.18n80.599w, cof into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

* Blame GoogleMaps



thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114702
Quoting Ameister12:
93L! Finally!



your a little too late i was the 1st too see it and post it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114702
Quoting Drakoen:
Central and Northern Florida look to cash in on this as the swath of rain will generally be moving towards the west or west-northwest. Numerical models show this well maintaining a degree of organized convection impacting the state.


I agree, looks like more soaking. Ive finally had some decent rain out of this system on the West Coast, 0.97 so far.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7266
Great catch as usual, Tazmanian. Invest93L's_9Oct_6pmGMT_ATCF
24.0n77.0w, 25.0n77.3w, 26.0n77.8w, 26.8n78.5w, 27.4n79.4w are its recent positions
Starting 8Oct_6pmGMT and ending 9Oct_6pmGMT

The 4 southeastern line-segments represent Invest93L's path,
and the northwesternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
Invest93L's travel-speed was 11.5mph(18.5k/h) on a heading of 306.9degrees(NW)
Invest93L was headed toward passage over DaKineDiego'sInsaneBurrito*SatelliteBeach,Florida ~6hours from now

Copy&paste 24.0n77.0w-25.0n77.3w, 25.0n77.3w-26.0n77.8w, 26.0n77.8w-26.8n78.5w, 26.8n78.5w-27.4n79.4w, 26.8n78.5w-28.18n80.599w, cof into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

* Blame GoogleMaps
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Pressure here is 1010.8.. It's pouring outside right now...
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


agreed, I don't think many realize how much rain Central Florida has had the last 4 months

Here in Pineallas county, we had a thunderstorm a few weeks back that flooded many of the roads here


I do because I live in Pinellas :)

Yeah, we have been soaked incredibly so, just most people aren't aware of it because strong thunderstorms and torrential rain that occurs here from sea breeze storms doesn't even get half the attention these low pressure areas get.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7266
Central and Northern Florida look to cash in on this as the swath of rain will generally be moving towards the west or west-northwest. Numerical models show this well maintaining a degree of organized convection impacting the state.
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Quoting luvtogolf:


After this rain moves out in a short while, what are you thought for additional rain in Pinellas County coming from these 2 lows?


Its hard to say, with 2 slow moving lows on either side of the State a lot could happen, we could either not get much more, or we could get a lot more, its hard to say really.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7266
Quoting Ameister12:
I got a bad feeling about this.


Looks worse than it did earlier.
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93L! Finally!
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160. Skyepony (Mod)
Buoy off Kennedy Space Center
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow..



What am I looking at here?
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Strong thunderstorms inching their way towards the Space Coast.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.