Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

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A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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93L is wrapping up nicely. Center has become much better defined in a short period of time, and I would not be surprised to see a name sometime soon.
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Quoting Drakoen:


How would I know? I didn't make a forecast. And it all depended on which model you want to follow. From what I see it was a combination of the GFS and ECMWF. A low that forms east of Florida that gets into the GOM and up into the Panhandle. The GFS kept trying to take it into the Georgia and the Carolinas (sorry press) and the ECMWF kept wanting to develop it underneath the upper trough axis.


And that bias to get the low under the trough axis has already resulted in most of the models, including the GFS, being too far south and west in this morning's runs.

I already mentioned the GFS being west of Palm Beach with the low on the 12z run. Here's the UKMET valid 8 hours from now. Clearly way off:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Quoting Levi32:


Andrea in 2007.


been a long time
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no designation for this landfaller i guess
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The 93rd storm of the season, LOL
Most Active Hurricane Season, EVER.
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Quoting Levi32:


But how did it go for the forecasters who followed the model consensus that the main low would develop out in the middle of the eastern gulf instead of east of Florida?


How would I know? I didn't make a forecast. And it all depended on which model you want to follow. From what I see it was a combination of the GFS and ECMWF. A low that forms east of Florida that gets into the GOM and up into the Panhandle. The GFS kept trying to take it into the Georgia and the Carolinas (sorry press) and the ECMWF kept wanting to develop it underneath the upper trough axis.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29905
Taz, our last SS was ANDREA but OTTO last year formed as one but later became a hurricane.
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Is that half of a DREADED PINHOLE EYE? ;)
Is it moving WEST?
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93L is goin to Florida. Thought it was supposed to go north.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Disagree. All of the numerical computer forecast models show this heading into the eastern GOM before impacting the panhandle/northern Florida.


But how did it go for the forecasters who followed the model consensus that the main low would develop out in the middle of the eastern gulf instead of east of Florida?

This morning's GFS had the low center moving inland west of Palm Beach. That didn't happen. The models can be drastically wrong even just 6 hours out.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
guys is jova weakining because she doesnt look very pretty on infrared
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1330
Quoting Tazmanian:



when was are last subtropical storm.


Andrea in 2007.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
We just had a 31 mph gust here in New Smyrna Beach.
Highest one I've seen yet.
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Quoting Levi32:
By the way, 93L is in fact partially warm-core, and if the center becomes just a little bit better-defined, it would meet the criteria to be given a name as a subtropical storm.




when was are last subtropical storm.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Current conditions at Vero Beach:
Wind Speed/Dir 48.0 mph from NE
Wind Gust 64.0 mph


really?
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Dr. M called this storm "extra tropical."

I had to look it up to get full clarification.

Extratropical Cyclone:
A cyclone of any intensity for which the primary energy source is baroclinic, that is, results from the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses.

This system seems to be getting more tropical.
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Quoting Levi32:


It's not going to hit the Gulf of Mexico. It's going inland and staying there, but hugging the Florida coast longer than many thought it would, because again, the models were too quick to bring it underneath the upper trough axis.
What is going to happen to the ULL feature in the gulf that seems to have translated to the surface. South winds in down south Fl.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 293
Pressure at Vero Beach has apparently bottomed out at 1001.35mb. It's rising slowly now.
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Quoting Levi32:


It's not going to hit the Gulf of Mexico. It's going inland and staying there.


Disagree. All of the numerical computer forecast models show this heading into the eastern GOM before impacting the panhandle/northern Florida.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29905
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wonder how much water got into the SFWMD....


Lots!

Link
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Quoting interstatelover7165:
What Da F?

The 93rd storm of the season, LOL
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Quoting Skyepony:


I was wundering if anyone would notice. Pressure falls in my data upload for some reason. The base reads 1005.8mb.
Kinda shocked me...lol

Is that reading in Vero true?? gust to 64?

Is that the tracking station on the beach?

Hmm.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 293
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
WTF?
Vero Beach:
Tonight
72 °F
T-storms
60% chance of precipitation
Tropical Storm 93
What Da F?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
IMO naming depends on how it looks if/when it gets out over the GOM....


It's not going to hit the Gulf of Mexico. It's going inland and staying there, but hugging the Florida coast longer than many thought it would, because again, the models were too quick to bring it underneath the upper trough axis.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
The Tampabay area has really had no wind today, does anyone know the reason? im in st. pete so if there is wind i usually get it.
Member Since: May 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
Quoting Levi32:
It's partially warm-core by the way. It's not that hard to name this if the center becomes a little bit more defined.



Agree and looking very nice on radar imagery for a Subtropical Storm:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29905
WTF?
Vero Beach:
Tonight
72 °F
T-storms
60% chance of precipitation
Tropical Storm 93
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IMO naming depends on how it looks if/when it gets out over the GOM....
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By the way, 93L is in fact partially warm-core, and if the center becomes just a little bit better-defined, it would meet the criteria to be given a name as a subtropical storm.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
228. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Abacosurf:
Whats up with the pressure at the station??? 29.17


I was wundering if anyone would notice. Pressure falls in my data upload for some reason. The base reads 1005.8mb.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37387
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Current conditions at Vero Beach:
Wind Speed/Dir 48.0 mph from NE
Wind Gust 64.0 mph


Pressure: 1001mb (29.57in)
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Wonder how much water got into the SFWMD....
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Quoting HIEXPRESS:
A high percentage of that rain that fell on East Central FL fell in the St Johns River Basin.


Cool
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 293
Current conditions at Vero Beach:
Wind Speed/Dir 48.0 mph from NE
Wind Gust 64.0 mph
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That should bring us up to normal water levels for this time of the year. Hopefully we don't see another system, or we could end up with levels like we saw after TS Fay.


Link
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A high percentage of that rain that fell on East Central FL fell in the St Johns River Basin.


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Quoting Skyepony:


It's wrapping up as it's coming at us.. WE just got our Flood Warning from MLB NWS.. Was just taking pics of that mesocyclone.


O_O
93L looks real impressive in that image.
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JMO, but I think we'll see a real deal powerhouse form in the central/nw caribbean later this week, jmo"not wishcasting" ;)
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Quoting Skyepony:


It's wrapping up as it's coming at us.. WE just got our Flood Warning from MLB NWS.. Was just taking pics of that mesocyclone.

This is going to be named.
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Quoting Skyepony:
The squalls & rain from 93L have arrived to my backyard in Eau Gallie, the north end of Melbourne..


Whats up with the pressure at the station??? 29.17
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 293
217. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting OBXNCWEATHER:


Hey there! On Eau Gallie also - beachshide here in Indian Harbour Beach - HOLY CRAP I thought last night was bad - this afternoon went downhill FAST...


It's wrapping up as it's coming at us.. WE just got our Flood Warning from MLB NWS.. Was just taking pics of that mesocyclone.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37387
Good radar loop
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29905
no name???
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levi i've been anticipating a tropical tidbit from yah man...... i FIND THEM SO INFORMATIVE........ waiting on the nexst mass of rain and ts gust here in central florida (excited)
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South and west winds filling in way down south FL.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =nfbf1

Florida Bay.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 293
Texas getting a ton of rain today - almost certainly the top rain day all year long for a large part of the state. Here in the Houston area, I've had 2.5 inches at my house today and that's probably on the low part of the rain totals in the city. I've seen quite a few 4-5 inch totals throughout the city and the rain is still falling down in some spots at a decent clip.

Not a drought buster by any stretch but obviously great news for a lot of folks here in the Lone Star state.
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Here on Merritt Island we had 0.7 in in the gauge on Friday morning, another 6.25 in or so (estimate since the gauge was overfilled) on Saturday morning and another 4.5 in in the gauge early this afternoon. We have had more rain since that measurement, although not too much.

After most of the day with only occasional and fairly brief showers, the radar shows the large area of offshore rain starting to move over us now.

We have had more wind today than before, and right now the local MI airport is reporting 30 G 41 kts out of 060.

Street flooding has not been too bad here, nothing like TS Fay brought us, but we already have had about 11.5 inches from this system and more is on the way. By the way, the 11.5 inches just about puts us at our "normal" rainfall for the year.

Good luck to the people further north who need the rain!
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Looks like 93L is starting to move more WNW.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6740
Quoting Skyepony:
The squalls & rain from 93L have arrived to my backyard in Eau Gallie, the north end of Melbourne..




Hey there! On Eau Gallie also - beachshide here in Indian Harbour Beach - HOLY CRAP I thought last night was bad - this afternoon went downhill FAST...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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