Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

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A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:


I haven't really looked at Jova.
well nhc has her a 3 at landfall and she isnt looking all that good now so i was wondering what you thought about her :)
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1728
The surface circulation and the mid-level circulation do not appear to be stacked and the surface circulation does not appear to be too well defined, but gosh darn there are some low pressures being reported on the space coast. Vero Beach had a 1001 mb pressure.
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The majority of the east/northeast wind has come from the pressure gradient caused by the big High pressure to the north.
Lot of reports over 40+ mph before 93L even got going.

Earlier today (haven't checked lately) winds were gusting over 40mph in the Eastern GOM off the coast near Panama city.
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Thinking 50% at 8 Pm
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Irwin looks proud of himself.
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Quoting DaytonaBill:
Blowing pretty good here in Daytona Beach. I'd estimate 25 sustained and gust to 40


yea its pretty gusty everywhere else too
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
levi how strong do you think jova will be at landfall?


I haven't really looked at Jova.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Blowing pretty good here in Daytona Beach. I'd estimate 25 sustained and gust to 40
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Quoting reedzone:


Do you think it deserves a name sometime soon. I'm getting whipped with TS conditions here in Florida.


This was supposed to be a TS-like event for Florida regardless, and we've known that for days. Whether this will deserve a name depends on if it gets solid westerly winds wrapped around the southern side of the circulation. It doesn't have that yet. Then it becomes a question of what mood the NHC is in today, and whether they will follow their own naming criteria for subtropical systems.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
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Quoting Levi32:


The southern side does need a more defined westerly flow around it before this can be named. We'll see if it gets there. It's trying pretty hard right now.
levi how strong do you think jova will be at landfall?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1728
very warm cloud tops... and a big wind field
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Quoting Levi32:


Well what specifically do you mean? I think it's following expected behavior very nicely right now, both in how it's winding up and the track that is taking it farther east and north than the models thought even at 12z this morning. I've been pounding away at how they have been wrong on this system from the beginning, except for the GFS which was good until last night and this morning when it fell apart.


Do you think it deserves a name sometime soon. I'm getting whipped with TS conditions here in Florida.
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Quoting cyclonekid:


What's keeping this from already being named Subtropical Storm Rina?

The center doesn't seem very well defined IMO.
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Does Anyone in Brevard/Volusia County have a rain guage? I would be interested in knowing how much liquid sunshine you got.

I love rain, but sadly I live in Lee County and got "only" 2.52 Inches of rain
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=n fbf1

29.77 WSW wind
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 532
Quoting Abacosurf:
It looks like just a kink in the wind field. Not a true circulation.

But we do have SW winds down in Florida bay.


The southern side does need a more defined westerly flow around it before this can be named. We'll see if it gets there. It's trying pretty hard right now.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
With these conditions, I feel 93L has become a Hybrid/Subtropical Storm. Once it moves inland, watch the pressure rise just like a Tropical system, watch the system weaken. NHC is being conservative, this deserves a name... in my opinion.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Developing Sub-Tropical Storm off of Cape Canaveral.

Very strong winds are being reported along the coast of FL.



Could see a bump up to 40% the next TWO.


What's keeping this from already being named Subtropical Storm Rina?
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Quoting reedzone:


Levi, what's your take on 93L?


Well what specifically do you mean? I think it's following expected behavior very nicely right now, both in how it's winding up and the track that is taking it farther east and north than the models thought even at 12z this morning. I've been pounding away at how they have been wrong on this system from the beginning, except for the GFS which was good until last night and this morning when it fell apart.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting Levi32:
It looks like just a kink in the wind field. Not a true circulation.

But we do have SW winds down in Florida bay.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 532
is very clear to me that 93L is moving NW or maybe NNW and not moving WNW at all, so, no GOM !!!!!
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hey everybody came to pop in say hello hope all is well



it looks like we will see a subtropical storm soon
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Quoting Levi32:


Levi, what's your take on 93L?
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Quoting Drakoen:
I don't think the center you guys are seeing on radar is at the surface. That looks more mid level to me, especially given the 30-50 knots of wind shear. The low level center looks like it may be within the southern cyclonically curved band seen on radar.
It is clearly not at the surface.

If it was there would be NW winds in vero not NE like it has been for 72 hours.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 532
No need to name anything. The LP will be coming onshore within the next 3 hours or so looking at radar.
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Curious to see what kind of readings we will get once that band of intense convection moves on shore. Radar velocities are fairly high. Could see strong TS force winds impacting the Space Coast around 60 knots or so and maybe even higher in the most intense thunderstorms.
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Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting reedzone:
Getting Tropical Storm conditions here in Palm Coast, Florida. I think this could be named as early as late tonight, the radar is impressive, showing banding just about to slam the East Coast of FL. Rina is looking a bit more likely, maybe 50% by 8 p.m.
Don't think so... unless the centre looks to stay offshore overnight, in which case all bets are off.

BTW, isn't Vero just the next step up the shore from WPB? [It's been a while since I drove up that way...]
EDIT: NVM.... forgot Jupiter and Ft. Pierce....
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Developing Sub-Tropical Storm off of Cape Canaveral.

Very strong winds are being reported along the coast of FL.



Could see a bump up to 40% the next TWO.
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Quoting reedzone:
Getting Tropical Storm conditions here in Palm Coast, Florida. I think this could be named as early as late tonight, the radar is impressive, showing banding just about to slam the East Coast of FL. Rina is looking a bit more likely, maybe 50% by 8 p.m.

Highest winds at Ocean Drive, Vero Beach FL were 50mph sustained with 64mph gusts and a minimum pressure of 1001.35mb.
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Consolidating nicely SSE of Jamaica , would be surprised if this isn't an Invest if this keeps up by tomorrow, expecting at least a yellow circle at 7pm cst.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
hey cansomeone answer my question please. is jova weakining?


Doesn't look like it to me. Convection isn't as deep, but thats to be expected this time of day. The structure is still very good.

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Getting Tropical Storm conditions here in Palm Coast, Florida. I think this could be named as early as late tonight, the radar is impressive, showing banding just about to slam the East Coast of FL. Rina is looking a bit more likely, maybe 50% by 8 p.m.
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Beautiful.


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Quoting interstatelover7165:
Most Active Hurricane Season, EVER.
Let's just not go there....

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
3:00 AM JST October 10 2011
==================================
TD23.... we would be well above average with those kinda numbers.... meanwhile in the WPAC they are pretty much average for the season....

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Quoting Drakoen:
Here is the station to monitor: Ocean Drive, Vero Beach, FL reporting sustained gale force winds.

That station reported a pressure of 1001.35mb a while ago. Hasn't updated since.
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Here is the station to monitor: Ocean Drive, Vero Beach, FL reporting sustained gale force winds.
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hey cansomeone answer my question please. is jova weakining?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1728
looking back at 2007

Gabrielle developed as a subtropical cyclone then came a TS

subtropical depression 10 then turn in too TD 10



and we had Subtropical Storm Andrea


hmm odd i was thinking we had more but it looks like they are the olny ones i can find

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
those dark red is going to have some bad weather under them hunker down space coast homers
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Quoting HIEXPRESS:


Lots!

Link
Cool. Some was definitely needed in the area.

Quoting Levi32:


It's not going to hit the Gulf of Mexico. It's going inland and staying there, but hugging the Florida coast longer than many thought it would, because again, the models were too quick to bring it underneath the upper trough axis.
Quoting Drakoen:


Disagree. All of the numerical computer forecast models show this heading into the eastern GOM before impacting the panhandle/northern Florida.
Which is why I put when / if. I don't realistically see it getting named if it follows the EC trip plan; if it crosses FL and gets out into the extreme NE GoM, more likely.

Either way, I'm impressed by how much it's tightened up since yesterday...
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264. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
3:00 AM JST October 10 2011
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea Near Caroline Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 8.3N 133.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 9.0N 130.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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I don't think the center you guys are seeing on radar is at the surface. That looks more mid level to me, especially given the 30-50 knots of wind shear. The low level center looks like it may be within the southern cyclonically curved band seen on radar.
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Hell yea! whooo! blown forecast for TX. Supposed to have all the heavy rains in the panhandle and west TX, ended up there and towards central TX and all the way to SE TX, much needed rain, and heavy at that.

Also looks like blown forecast for storm off Florida.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
At 9am this morning 93L was nothing but a low level swirl with no convection off the coast of Miami.
Wow, what a comeback it has made.
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At 9am this morning 93L was nothing but a low level swirl with no convection off the coast of Miami.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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