Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

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A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:


But 93L isn't going to touch the gulf. Scattered showers will remain but I think south Florida is done with the solid rain.


Here to attest to that. We are in the "orange circle" and the skies are clear and the winds are pretty much calm.
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407. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
6:00 AM JST October 10 2011
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea Near Caroline Island

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 8.2N 132.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 9 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 9.0N 130.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
Yeah that tornado signature off the coast is a little worrisome. I just went outside and got that bad alabama spring feeling
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1003.4mb now being reported out of Sebastian, Florida.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
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Quoting FefiBrevard:


mine peed on the sofa!

oh no...you must have a little dog.
we made it.
no rain here to speak of but the wind wants to blow me off the road.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i really dont think South florida is done with the rain if 93L moves across florida into the gulf that tail will move west from the bahamas over the florida peninsula


But 93L isn't going to touch the gulf. Scattered showers will remain but I think south Florida is done with the solid rain.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Tornado vortex signature inside the center of convection just offshore Melbourne now.
Link
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Quoting reedzone:


Nice curved band of convection on the left side of the circulation.
i think the NHC will go to code red in the next TWO
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i really dont think South florida is done with the rain if 93L moves across florida into the gulf that tail will move west from the bahamas over the florida peninsula
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Very quiet in Downtown Orlando. Fast moving cloud cover, slight breeze with occasional unimpressive gusts. Wonder if that will change into the night?

We'll see.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
93L says Good Night.


Nice curved band of convection on the left side of the circulation.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7390
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Subtropical Storm Invest 93L (LOL) is one strange thing. Can't even do it justice. It's freaking insane.


Yeah, this is such a weird freaking low. Unlike a tropical storm, it has intense convection on the immediate WEST side of the low and major dry slot to the immediate right. Still wondering if this will jog across FL and align with the upper/mid level low SW of Ft. Myers tomorrow. I better just stand back and watch...
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
that very strong rain band associated with the core is going to wreck havoc in the next few hours over melbourne and cape canaveral


could be an interesting couple of hours as we are just getting the "yellow" bands now and it's pretty bad out there.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
Quoting Levi32:


It's not as good as I remember it being 2-3 years ago either.


GFS has gotten better to since its upgrade in 2009 I think?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
winds continue to get stronger in the palm bay area gusts to 60 mph
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The Euro is usually reliable, but sometimes I think people put too much faith in it.


Yeah i totally agree. The almighty king EURO can't win every round. ;) The GFS has improved a lot since the upgrade imo
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Quoting Levi32:
1004mb at the official Vero Beach station now.


Thought yesterday was bad but tonight is worse with the wind gusts, still raining though not as hard as yesterday. We are at 7" here in Merritt Island. Waiting for the big red blob to get here.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
93L says Good Night.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Quoting KoritheMan:


The Euro is usually reliable, but sometimes I think people put too much faith in it.


It's not as good as I remember it being 2-3 years ago either.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting robert88:
Well the GFS did show the main vorticity off the EC of FL moving NNW and making landfall anywhere from N FL to SC days ago. Big props to the GFS. I prefer the ECMWF myself..but it failed this time showing the strongest vorticity over the E GOM. It was W vs. E and the GFS came out on top this time around.


I have a new-found respect for the GFS's handling of subtropical entities based on it being the one and only model to correct on the western bias of the other models. However, the GFS did fall apart yesterday and started forecasting the low to go into the Gulf of Mexico by this evening, which obviously isn't happening.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting charlottefl:


59 mph !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
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IMO the area just west of Florida will become dominant. Too much shear and land interaction on the east. It's just a trough right now but i see more and more turning at the surface and convection persisting in one spot over the GOM.
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Quoting robert88:
Well the GFS did show the main vorticity off the EC of FL moving NNW and making landfall anywhere from N FL to SC days ago. Big props to the GFS. I prefer the ECMWF myself..but it failed this time showing the strongest vorticity over the E GOM. It was W vs. E and the GFS came out on top this time around.


The Euro is usually reliable, but sometimes I think people put too much faith in it.
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that very strong rain band associated with the core is going to wreck havoc in the next few hours over melbourne and cape canaveral
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Quoting will40:


exactly and the steering currents are less reliable for a STS


Indeed.
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Well the GFS did show the main vorticity off the EC of FL moving NNW and making landfall anywhere from N FL to SC days ago. Big props to the GFS. I prefer the ECMWF myself..but it failed this time showing the strongest vorticity over the E GOM. It was W vs. E and the GFS came out on top this time around.
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Quoting Levi32:


Not the GOM. It will be hard for this particular vortex to get any farther north than the Georgia coast, and it may scoot inland fairly quickly over Florida or Georgia, but a secondary development may bring rain and gusty winds up through the Carolinas once the big ridge finally slides east and allows the mid-level trough currently over Texas to bring some of the low pressure that is left up the eastern seaboard. I don't see 93L touching the Gulf of Mexico though.


thanks!
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1004mb at the official Vero Beach station now.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting KoritheMan:


We have some doubters -- of the CIMSS steering products, that is. I think it's important to remember that no meteorological tool, no matter how objective, can be rightfully considered gospel.

Mind you, I am sure you know this. I'm just throwing it out there for those who don't.


exactly and the steering currents are less reliable for a STS
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4229
Quoting Levi32:


Ok but here's the steering from 9 hours earlier. Would you have expected 93L to be moving NNW towards Cape Canaveral (or passing it up) based on that? There is more going on here than hard-set steering currents.



We have some doubters -- of the CIMSS steering products, that is. I think it's important to remember that no meteorological tool, no matter how objective, can be rightfully considered gospel.

Mind you, I am sure you know this. I'm just throwing it out there for those who don't.
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Quoting ncstorm:


so are you seeing this traveling up the US east coast then into the GOM?


Not the GOM. It will be hard for this particular vortex to get any farther north than the Georgia coast, and it may scoot inland fairly quickly over Florida or Georgia, but a secondary development may bring rain and gusty winds up through the Carolinas once the big ridge finally slides east and allows the mid-level trough currently over Texas to bring some of the low pressure that is left up the eastern seaboard. I don't see 93L touching the Gulf of Mexico though.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
the wind is incredible here in melbourne fl, picking up substantially in the last hour. branches down everywhere.
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Quoting Levi32:
That one PWS at Vero Beach is now reporting 994mb. It is not trustworthy.

O_o
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
forget the gulf with this invest
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If 93L can stay off shore, I do think it will get a subtropical storm classification.
93L is trying to move more northerly at the moment. It could miss the cape and stay off shore for a while longer.
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That one PWS at Vero Beach is now reporting 994mb. It is not trustworthy.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting ncstorm:


so are you seeing this traveling up the US east coast then into the GOM?


He's seeing it move inland into Florida later tonight and not re-emerge over water.
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Quoting Levi32:
The steering currents are seemingly being disobeyed because the upper-level trough is dynamically changing the area where low pressure is favored, and 93L is following that area of greatest potential. Low pressure is being shifted northward and imposing on the high still over the eastern United States by the upper trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 93L is the manifestation of this. The models have constantly tried to force 93L over into the gulf because of their tendency to develop subtropical low pressure stacked under the coldest air aloft, but the vertical forcing to the east has resulted in the favored position for the subtropical low to be east of the trough axis. This has been the reasoning behind why the models would end up being wrong on 93L.


so are you seeing this traveling up the US east coast then into the GOM?
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93l is pretty close to being name din my opinion. Just need some more organization on the southern flank. We'll see what happens, all indications and obs show this is most likely a Subtropical storm.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7390
Quoting Hurricanes101:


It was moving NNW and NW the last 24 hours until this early this afternoon when it turned back to the WNW, I think the steering currents showed that suspected turn nicely

right now I see this system moving WNW, earlier it had a more northern component to it; which is what the steering indicated


It doesn't look like WNW. Try not to follow the dry eye-like niche with your eyes, but rather follow the entire banded structure.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
The steering currents are seemingly being disobeyed because the upper-level trough is dynamically changing the area where low pressure is favored, and 93L is following that area of greatest potential. Low pressure is being shifted northward and imposing on the high still over the eastern United States by the upper trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 93L is the manifestation of this. The models have constantly tried to force 93L over into the gulf because of their tendency to develop subtropical low pressure stacked under the coldest air aloft, but the vertical forcing to the east has resulted in the favored position for the subtropical low to be east of the trough axis. This has been the reasoning behind why the models would end up being wrong on 93L.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
nice wind speeds showing up.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
if i were the NHC i would issue a TS warning for the space coast they are experiencing tropical storm conditions
tropical storm warnings are meant for tropical storms, which the NHC says this is not. NWS melbourne has high wind advisories and plenty of special weather statements to keep the public informed.
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Quoting Levi32:


Ok but here's the steering from 9 hours earlier. Would you have expected 93L to be moving NNW towards Cape Canaveral (or passing it up) based on that? There is more going on here than hard-set steering currents.



It was moving NNW to NW the last 24 hours until this early this afternoon when it turned back to the WNW, I think the steering currents showed that suspected turn nicely

right now I see this system moving WNW, earlier it had a more northern component to it; which is what the steering indicated
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7688
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Looks to me like the 93L will cross the Cape. It's going to be close, but I believe it will make a landfall on the cape.
very close
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They can always upgrade 93L after the season ends. No sense in naming it now. NWS in Melbourne is doing fine on their own.
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Tropical Atlantic has 93L moving 314 degrees for the last 12 hours and 307 degrees for the last 6 hours.
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
527 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FLZ047-054-141-147-100400-
/O.UPG.KMLB.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-111010T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.HW.W.0001.111009T2127Z-111010T0400Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-COASTAL VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MELBOURNE...PALM BAY...VERO BEACH...
DAYTONA BEACH...TITUSVILLE
527 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT.

* TIMING...AFTER 6 PM VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OFFSHORE OUT
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SOME POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR DAMAGE ARE LIKELY MAINLY
DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS AND GUSTY WINDS KNOCKING DOWN SHALLOW
ROOTED TREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.
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Quoting FefiBrevard:


mine peed on the sofa!
You better get that out fast!!!
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The center is ~35 miles from the Melbourne Radar site to the ESE
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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