Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

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A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Curse you NHC!
coc is not well defined wind field is spread out to the n and e closeness to land inhibting full tropical dev expected landfall after midnight will stop any further dev for the time being

this system is subtropical by nature nothing more nothing less
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Well it looks like there may be some injuries from that transformer that just blew. The fire department and two ambulances and a couple of cops just went out that direction.

Note to everyone: when a power pole is sparking, shooting flames, and or producing other forms of pyrotechnics it is best to take cover if you are close by.
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Jova and Irwin...

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I guess 93l isn't worth a recon flight.
If there's no llc, then the layer mean steering charts aren't going to tell us much. It doesn't "want" to go inland unless pushed. maybe GA?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I doubt that. Lee and the additional rains that have followed are likely to blame, at least moreso than this.


haha lee did very little it drained off its bone dry out here
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Wow. I don't see how they can't name this. The circulation does look closed now based on sunset visible, radar, and surface obs.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Melbourne

NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range
248 NMI

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Its producing high end sustained TS winds..

It should be named a STS so it could at LEAST give out TS warnings, otherwise no one takes it seriously..
If the criteria for classification was that narrow, the NHC would quickly lose public credibility. Do you really consider that a profitable venture?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21330
%age decrease on 99E:

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092344
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 810 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD
OR NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Quoting weatherh98:
Interesting thing is that lake pontchartrain is 1-2 feet above normal because partially of this big system


I doubt that. Lee and the additional rains that have followed are likely to blame, at least moreso than this.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21330
Its producing high end sustained TS winds..

It should be named a STS so it could at LEAST give out TS warnings, otherwise no one takes it seriously.. unlike Jose, which got Bermuda TS warnings and all they got was a naked swirl with 10 mph winds.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
in louisiana
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Interesting thing is that lake pontchartrain is 1-2 feet above normal because partially of this big system
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445. ackee
Quoting Hurricane1956:
I just check the latest GFS long run and it have a hurricane by the Yucatan Peninsula next week but it will move NE between the Eastern tip of Cuba and Haiti out to sea.
b 18GF run devlops the storm in the SW carrb while the other GFSrun devlop the storm near the yucantan peninsula guess we see in the coming weeks
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Curse you NHC!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting CybrTeddy:
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR
DATA FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...IT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY
MORNING...AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTH
FLORIDA BY EARLY TUESDAY. AS LONG AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER
WATER...THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND MONDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INLUDING WATCHES OR
WARNINGS...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER

I disagree, it should be red. You upgrade Jose, but don't give this a red alert? Really?


yea I do not get this at all, NHC is way off on this one IMO; especially since the atcf has this as SS or Subtropical Storm and has since 2pm
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NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR
DATA FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...IT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY
MORNING...AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTH
FLORIDA BY EARLY TUESDAY. AS LONG AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER
WATER...THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND MONDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INLUDING WATCHES OR
WARNINGS...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
I just check the latest GFS long run and it have a hurricane by the Yucatan Peninsula next week but it will move NE between the Eastern tip of Cuba and Haiti out to sea.


Never assume absolutes in meteorology.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21330
Quoting Levi32:
Didn't notice this before:

AL, 93, 2011100918, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS, INVEST, M
sub-tropical storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR
DATA FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...IT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY
MORNING...AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTH
FLORIDA BY EARLY TUESDAY. AS LONG AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER
WATER...THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND MONDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INLUDING WATCHES OR
WARNINGS...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER

I disagree, it should be red. You upgrade Jose, but don't give this a red alert? Really?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
000
ABNT20 KNHC 092338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR
DATA FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...IT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY
MORNING...AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTH
FLORIDA BY EARLY TUESDAY. AS LONG AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER
WATER...THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND MONDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INLUDING WATCHES OR
WARNINGS...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI



Still Thirty Percent
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30% @ 8pm
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
Quoting Levi32:
Didn't notice this before:

AL, 93, 2011100918, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS, INVEST, M

Aparrently no one did. :)
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Quoting Levi32:
Didn't notice this before:

AL, 93, 2011100918, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS, INVEST, M


nhc kept it at 30%

Doubt we get Rina out of this system
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staying at 30%..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
Quoting Levi32:
Didn't notice this before:

AL, 93, 2011100918, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS, INVEST, M
Hello what this numbers means??,thank you!
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Didn't notice this before:

AL, 93, 2011100918, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS, INVEST, M
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting cyclonekid:

I'll give you that. I was just trying to say that if those storms got named, then this one deserves to be named too.


Agreed. Problem is, classification is entirely subjective, largely because tropical/subtropical cyclones often don't fit into a narrow, arbitrary niche.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21330
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not to downplay the ongoing event in Florida, but there are bigger fish to fry.
I just check the latest GFS long run and it have a hurricane by the Yucatan Peninsula next week but it will move NE between the Eastern tip of Cuba and Haiti out to sea.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Franklin was more of a storm than Jose ever was. Don't even get me started on that. ;)

I'll give you that. I was just trying to say that if those storms got named, then this one deserves to be named too.
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Window is closing.
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Quoting H20poloweatheraddict:
Yeah that tornado signature off the coast is a little worrisome. I just went outside and got that bad alabama spring feeling


Hi everyone. Daily visitor/reader, occasional poster. Moved to Florida fromt the OBX of NC (thus the screen name), so not new to this situation by any means, but wanted to give y'all a quick update from coastal EC FL.

I am now in Indian Harbour Beach, FL - zip 32937 - due east of MLB - and I've got to tell you that things are getting VERY intense outside.

The overall intensity of the wind, rain and water has been building over the past several hours... you all can see just as well as I can what's happening on radar and satellite - but now the winds are sustaining at a very strong clip - minor tree and property damage is occurring more frequently - power is flashing in and out - and on A1A the police have now closed traffic in two areas within a one mile distance.

Very strange - there is now a MASSIVE amount of lighting occurring along the immediate coast - with VERY VERY angry and menacing howls coming from the ocean. Living on the OBX of NC, lightning is very infrequent with tropical systems, and if (pish posh - not "if") this system is in fact a system, it prob is ST, right?

Y'all mentioned a T Vortex off of the coast - and I'm wondering if this is simply the intense circulation center or if there possibly is a tornado/waterspout close to the coast.... I'm prepared, but (AS ALWAYS) it seems that my best source of UP TO THE MINUTE INFORMATION is coming from my friends here at WUnderground... instead of my "guardians" at the NWS or NHC...

In these situations where everyone is playing the uber-hesitant game, it's really hard to rely so much on your weather radio...

Please elaborate on the vortex signature offshore.

Lots of appreciation <3
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This is the buoy to watch, directly in 93L's path off of Cape Canaveral.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Wow just saw a transformer go up about a half mile off... it looked like it was one heck of a fireball, surprised my power is still on
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424. ackee
I thibk the NHC should upgrade 93L to a subtropical storm also the the huge blog in the central carrb should be shaded yellow 20% LETS
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Quoting cyclonekid:

They might do something bigger than that. If they'll classify something such as Franklin or José which may or may not have deserved names, they might as well classify this one.


Franklin was more of a storm than Jose ever was. Don't even get me started on that. ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21330
Vero Beach reporting 59mph...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Just returned from Pelican Beach Park in Satellite Beach, hoping to catch a pic of any passing waterspouts. No luck with that as it got too dark, but Buoy 41009 is showing gusts around 45-50 knots and I would not be surprised if I felt a few big ones standing up on the beach access structure. The big awning over the gas pumps at the Ocean Breeze convenience store on A1A was visibly rocking and making booming sounds, it may come down soon.

Where is the NHC on this one? Is this supposedly completely non-tropical? I sincerely doubt that is the case.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
It does appear to be at least that 93L is a sub-tropical storm with 45 knot winds, IMO. However, the NHC will probably keep it orange for whatever reason..

They might do something bigger than that. If they'll classify something such as Franklin or José which may or may not have deserved names, they might as well classify this one.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
its a STS by now. should get a quick name soon and then dissipate once it moves over florida still brigning heavy rain. im concered about the big stuff in the carribean next week..


Not to downplay the ongoing event in Florida, but there are bigger fish to fry.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21330
Quoting Levi32:


A subtropical cyclone is partially warm-core, while a tropical cyclone is fully warm-core. This just means that a subtropical storm is warm-core in the low-mid levels but cold-core in the upper atmosphere.
there any chance the system reversed to a fully warm core cyclone or will it have no time
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1728
Quoting Levi32:


A subtropical cyclone is partially warm-core, while a tropical cyclone is fully warm-core. This just means that a subtropical storm is warm-core in the low-mid levels but cold-core in the upper atmosphere.


Thanks Levi

Now back to watching pine trees snap and hoping they don't hit my transformer...
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It does appear to be at least that 93L is a sub-tropical storm with 45 knot winds, IMO. However, the NHC will probably keep it orange for whatever reason..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
Man, Central Florida News 13 is showing the webcams in Melbourne and Daytona, wow. Cocoa has wind gust now at 57 mph.
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In fact it's starting to look more tropical than not..
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Quoting H20poloweatheraddict:
Just wanted to confirm something.... tropical storm starts warm core and stays that way sub-tropical starts cold core and switches to warm... right?


A subtropical cyclone is partially warm-core, while a tropical cyclone is fully warm-core. This just means that a subtropical storm is warm-core in the low-mid levels but cold-core in the upper atmosphere.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Just wanted to confirm something.... tropical storm starts warm core and stays that way sub-tropical starts cold core and switches to warm... right?
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Quoting Levi32:
1003.4mb now being reported out of Sebastian, Florida.
its a STS by now. should get a quick name soon and then dissipate once it moves over florida still brigning heavy rain. im concered about the big stuff in the carribean next week..
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1728
Quoting charlottefl:
It is my personal opinion this is a STS now...


I am tending to agree based on the much better-looking southern side of the circulation. I'm hoping the NHC will acknowledge what this system truly is in the 8pm TWO.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
It is my personal opinion this is a STS now...
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Quoting Levi32:


But 93L isn't going to touch the gulf. Scattered showers will remain but I think south Florida is done with the solid rain.


Here to attest to that. We are in the "orange circle" and the skies are clear and the winds are pretty much calm.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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