Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

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A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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508. Chicklit
12:09 AM GMT on October 10, 2011
And the radar looks like it has the storm tracking parallel to the coast.... It may graze the cape but it doesn't look like it will push any further west than that.

Agree.
We knew this system would be complicated.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11410
507. H20poloweatheraddict
12:08 AM GMT on October 10, 2011
Quoting Chicklit:

If you notice, after the space coast, the peninsula curves away to the west and this would mean the center would stay over water.


And the radar looks like it has the storm tracking parallel to the coast.... It may graze the cape but it doesn't look like it will push any further west than that
Member Since: May 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
506. weatherh98
12:07 AM GMT on October 10, 2011
Quoting scott39:
It looks like the 850mb and 700mb vorticity is starting to move over S Fl. to the W. Could this be a sign of future developement in the GOM?


bingo ding ding
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
505. KoritheMan
12:07 AM GMT on October 10, 2011

Quoting scott39:
It looks like the 850mb and 700mb vorticity is starting to move over S Fl. to the W. Could this be a sign of future developement in the GOM?
Doubtful. More likely, it attests to the disorganized nature of the system.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21231
504. KoritheMan
12:07 AM GMT on October 10, 2011

Quoting Levi32:


Your point isn't valid because they have already named circulations that look worse than this one numerous times. Their standards for classification have actually been lower than this this season
I agree that they should be more consistent with classification. I wasn't saying this system was or wasn't subtropical.

The NHC has provided us with a specific guideline for classification -- one that I intend to take full advantage of during debates like this.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21231
503. scott39
12:06 AM GMT on October 10, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:

Didn't you just say it wasn't a subtropical storm? :P
It looks like the 850mb and 700mb vorticity is starting to move over S Fl. to the W. Could this be a sign of future developement in the GOM?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
502. geepy86
12:05 AM GMT on October 10, 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Looks rather tropical looking at Radar.

not sure but i'm 11 mile east and it's pretty gusty here.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1704
501. Chicklit
12:04 AM GMT on October 10, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
The COC is becoming better defined as we speak. The wind field is spread out as it is a subtropical entity, and land interaction may not necessarily destroy this system.

If you notice, after the space coast, the peninsula curves away to the west and this would mean the center would stay over water.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11410
Quoting H20poloweatheraddict:
If the COC closes off before landfall for this sub tropical storm; wouldn't that pretty much automatically cause it to be named? I mean from what it looks like the pressure/wind readings already classify this as at least a strong depression and the wind is definitely stronger than when we had TS/TD Fay park over us.


with the way the NHC has been this year, who knows :P
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting weatherh98:


okay I know yall cant see it but in a visible theres a swirl in the south east gom


Clearly to be seen here. At least it's looking interesting.
Link
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Looks rather tropical looking at Radar.
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If the COC closes off before landfall for this sub tropical storm; wouldn't that pretty much automatically cause it to be named? I mean from what it looks like the pressure/wind readings already classify this as at least a strong depression and the wind is definitely stronger than when we had TS/TD Fay park over us.
Member Since: May 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
Quoting KoritheMan:

Didn't you just say it wasn't a subtropical storm? :P


Its subtropical in nature.

I do think its close to becoming one, but is not one yet. It should be at red 60%, just my opinion.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
Is Orlando in the clear on this one? Seems like everything that moves inland is pretty weak.

Kinda looks like it will pass north of us?
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487. That's during the morning commute. Won't be fun having to drive your car to work in 50-60 mph winds and pouring rain.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
Quoting Hurricanes101:


It sure looks like a sub-tropical storm; last I checked, they named those now




you are right they do name them now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its sub-tropical, not tropical.
Didn't you just say it wasn't a subtropical storm? :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21231
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From the frontlines (E. Merritt Island), wind gusts continue to increase and it is as bad if not worse than any TS I've ever been in (been in several). Barometer dropped a full point in the past hour. It is really pretty crazy out there.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Does this look like a tropical storm?

No. It looks like a SUBtropical storm :D
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting charlottefl:


You're probably on a different secondary feeder line


Probably, I am just used to the power going out in my neighborhood anytime the wind blows harder than a manatee fart.... we still have a lot of dead trees that haven't come down yet since the mother's day fire a few years back
Member Since: May 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
Quoting Hurricanes101:


nhc kept it at 30%

Doubt we get Rina out of this system
Not surprised. NHC expects it to move onshore tonight, and do not see much chance of further organization before then.

Quoting cyclonekid:

Aparrently no one did. :)
We talked about that earlier today, in the old blog.

BTW, here's the rationale behind no upgrade:

THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY
MORNING...

Quoting tropicalnewbee:
i just north of melbourne and it is raining something fierce in titusville. had the windows bow in and out a few times from the wind and can barely hear the tv over the rain!
Sounds pretty much like the wx we had last night... except I didn't get the window effect due to the fact that my hurricane shutters r still up from Irene...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Does this look like a tropical storm?


It sure looks like a sub-tropical storm; last I checked, they named those now
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Does this look like a tropical storm?


Its sub-tropical, not tropical. Just has tropical characteristics.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
I really hope that something bad does not come out of this.

As was said before, whether you like it or not, a named storm gets much more attention from people in affected areas than one that goes without a name. Those on the east coast of Florida are not going to take this as seriously and this could endanger some lives

I know this may sound extreme, but after seeing this proven time and time again in the last 10 years, I fully believe it.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874


okay I know yall cant see it but in a visible theres a swirl in the south east gom
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting cyclonekid:


I didn't even think about this, but do you think they may be looking for consistence?


I understand what you're getting at, but at a certain proximity to the coast isn't it more prudent to disregard the "consistence" requirement?
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Does this look like a tropical storm?
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Quoting H20poloweatheraddict:
Wow just saw a transformer go up about a half mile off... it looked like it was one heck of a fireball, surprised my power is still on


You're probably on a different secondary feeder line
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I do not work for the NHC. Why can't I?


Your point isn't valid because they have already named circulations that look worse than this one numerous times. Their standards for classification have actually been lower than this this season
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
I think 93L will make it into the NE GOM.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting OBXNCWEATHER:
Continuing on my rant... lol... i FULLY expect to see this upgraded in post-season analysis. I'll start preparing THEN.

Ugh.


They won't. They didn't upgrade the pre-season invest in 2009 known as 90L, which was without a doubt, and was considered by several NWS, to be a 40 mph Tropical Storm, wasn't even mentioned in post season analysis. This however, is entirely different and your point is completely valid.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
Quoting Patrap:
Melbourne

NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range
248 NMI




is that a eye? am seeing on the rader?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
our rain maker mid week
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
474. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting cyclonekid:

Aparrently no one did. :)


Assumed ya'll had..it was on top of the model runs too.


Lot of 20mph gusts here.
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Continuing on my rant... lol... i FULLY expect to see this upgraded in post-season analysis. I'll start preparing THEN.

Ugh.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


you are aware that if you take that criteria out anyway and base it on the actual systems, this one is more deserving of a name than Jose ever was anyway?


Of course. Unfortunately, like with any guideline, we are bound by that criteria. Protocol sucks sometimes.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21231
SS/INV/93L
MARK
28.18n/79.93w
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
coc is not well defined wind field is spread out to the n and e closeness to land inhibting full tropical dev expected landfall after midnight will stop any further dev for the time being

this system is subtropical by nature nothing more nothing less
The COC is becoming better defined as we speak. The wind field is spread out as it is a subtropical entity, and land interaction may not necessarily destroy this system.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting H20poloweatheraddict:
Well it looks like there may be some injuries from that transformer that just blew. The fire department and two ambulances and a couple of cops just went out that direction.

Note to everyone: when a power pole is sparking, shooting flames, and or producing other forms of pyrotechnics it is best to take cover if you are close by.


I'm seeing this too, H20... Just saw a truck on Harbour City Parkway/Eau Gallie get struck with a rather large flying object, too...
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i just north of melbourne and it is raining something fierce in titusville. had the windows bow in and out a few times from the wind and can barely hear the tv over the rain!
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Quoting Levi32:
Wow. I don't see how they can't name this. The circulation does look closed now based on sunset visible, radar, and surface obs.


I didn't even think about this, but do you think they may be looking for consistence?
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731

Quoting Levi32:


You can't even say that after all of the iffy naming that they've done this year.
I do not work for the NHC. Why can't I?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21231
Quoting KoritheMan:

The US drought monitor says otherwise -- apparently, we're completely free of the drought.

Still, seeing as though I haven't been to Pontchartrain since last September, I am clearly not the best judge of the water levels there.


yea i know what the monitor says it just hasnt rained since lee
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Curse you NHC!


Indeed. This is simply RIDICULOUS. I hardly EVERY hate on the NHC, but I guarantee you that if "Not Rina" was 100 miles further to the south on THEIR doorstep it would be classified.

Really hate to be this bitter, but NHC can bite me. Wouldn't it really be better to err on the side of caution and risk over inflating a season's storm numbers by one than to do nothing. Or are they simply kicking themselves for Jose and the likes and making up for it with this (not so) ambiguous system?

Y'all may think I'm being too harsh, but the practical application of this is: some of us have commutes to work, jobs that involve outdoor interaction, etc. Without classification someone could have to drive/commute 1-2 hours in this extremely hazardous weather... whereas if they classified "Not Rina" then there is the potential that employers could, on a case-by-case basis, say "please stay home if conditions are too hazardous for travel".

UUUUUUUUUUGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHH
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Quoting KoritheMan:

If the criteria for classification was that narrow, the NHC would quickly lose public credibility. Do you really consider that a profitable venture?


That's not the point I'm making here. The point is the NHC is inconsistent with classification, and it bugging a lot of people myself included. They're the boss, and I'm not trying to bash them. I'm pointing out if Jose got classified, but the 90L in May 2009 wasn't, then why not this? IMO, 93L is not a Sub-tropical storm, and the NHC is correct, but it seems inconsistent for them not to declare it when they declared Jose, and not the 90L in May 2009 because a nearly invisible trough was attached to it, barely.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553

Quoting weatherh98:


haha lee did very little it drained off its bone dry out here
The US drought monitor says otherwise -- apparently, we're completely free of the drought.

Still, seeing as though I haven't been to Pontchartrain since last September, I am clearly not the best judge of the water levels there.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21231
461. ackee
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Its producing high end sustained TS winds..

It should be named a STS so it could at LEAST give out TS warnings, otherwise no one takes it seriously.. unlike Jose, which got Bermuda TS warnings and all they got was a naked swirl with 10 mph winds.
agree 100 cant understand the NHC reason for not upgrading 93L
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Quoting KoritheMan:

If the criteria for classification was that narrow, the NHC would quickly lose public credibility. Do you really consider that a profitable venture?


you are aware that if you take that criteria out anyway and base it on the actual systems, this one is more deserving of a name than Jose ever was anyway?

Regardless of location
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting KoritheMan:

If the criteria for classification was that narrow, the NHC would quickly lose public credibility. Do you really consider that a profitable venture?


You can't even say that after all of the iffy naming that they've done this year. Every storm that passed near the Antilles Islands got a name with a very questionable circulation that wasn't really closed.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Curse you NHC!
coc is not well defined wind field is spread out to the n and e closeness to land inhibting full tropical dev expected landfall after midnight will stop any further dev for the time being

this system is subtropical by nature nothing more nothing less
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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