Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:36 PM GMT on October 09, 2011

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A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.

Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.


Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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558. Skyepony (Mod)
The rain is cold. I want a long sleeve when I'm out there, even out of the rain. It's Subtropical.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38171
I see Dr. Masters forecast for rains in Houston were not even close but I bet the folks in Texas are happy he was waaaaaaaaay off.
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Hey, Nea. Looks like this one is going to be a doozy.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting Levi32:
Pressure is now falling twice as rapidly as the last 30-minute interval at the buoy off of Cape Canaveral, now down to 1003mb, illustrating how the pressure gradient increases closer to the low center, a characteristic only of tropical cyclones. Winds now 50mph gusting to 65mph at the buoy.

Link


Our barometer in Merritt Island dropped from 1004 to 1003 within an hour earlier tonight.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
554. Skyepony (Mod)
Oceansat from ~5 1/5 hrs ago..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38171
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It irritates me.
same.... i understand on occasions you could be reluctant but when all this evidence is against what you have to say they still go with no STS. for all we know this could be TS rina now..
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Starting to lean more towards tropical than subtropical. Rapid pressure drop on the buoys as the COC passes over.

Turning that way, but I still think it is subtropical.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
the people at the NHC need to be FIRED. this really iritates me how they cant classify this..... confirmed 50mph wind speed if not stronger closed low how is this not a STS??

It irritates me as well.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


There is no "Q" in the Atlantic roster


I realize that, lol, why can't we name it "Q" since NHc
dos not seemed inclined to give it "R"?
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so where is the 8 pm update
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Quoting Levi32:
I'm sorry but this does not happen unless you're dealing with a warm-core cyclone in the tropics. Watch for a wind shift at the buoy after the center passes. If we get that, then the NHC has zero excuses.

To be fair, a lot can happen in two hours. They may yet classify it.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20829
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Rapidly falling pressures and significant wave heights of over 20 ft. off the coast of Florida..

This IS a subtropical storm.
Apparently the NHC doesn't want to say so.
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Rapidly falling pressures and significant wave heights of over 20 ft. off the coast of Florida..

This IS a subtropical storm.


Starting to lean more towards tropical than subtropical. Rapid pressure drop on the buoys as the COC passes over.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24177
ATCF now says 40 knots/45 mph and 1004 mb, but still subtropical:

AL, 93, 2011101000, , BEST, 0, 280N, 800W, 40, 1005, SS, 34, NEQ, 250, 250, 0, 225, 1009, 250, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Quoting trey33:
One positive - no named storm = no named storm insurance deductible for damage claims
Touche.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20829
Quoting OneDrop:
aAre you in Ormond Beach. I just heard sirens going by on A1A. Saw a transformer blow out at 12am Thurs night and saw one this morning near my house that caused half the enighborhood to be without power for a few hours. Gusting to 50-55 here without a doubt in squalls.


Nope, I am down on the south side of Palm Bay, I would imagine emergency services are going to be busy all over the coast tonight
Member Since: May 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Rapidly falling pressures and significant wave heights of over 20 ft. off the coast of Florida..

This IS a subtropical storm.



call the nhc and tell them that LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Rapidly falling pressures and significant wave heights of over 20 ft. off the coast of Florida..

This IS a subtropical storm.
the people at the NHC need to be FIRED. this really iritates me how they cant classify this..... confirmed 50mph wind speed if not stronger closed low how is this not a STS??
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I'm sorry but this does not happen unless you're dealing with a warm-core cyclone in the tropics. Watch for a wind shift at the buoy after the center passes. If we get that, then the NHC has zero excuses.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
The NHC tends to not upgrade systems at the same times as the TWO updates. I'm assuming this has something to do with the TWO being updated at the same time. But yes, I agree that this is very likely SS Rina and that the NHC is very inconsistent with the rules they follow to upgrade systems and that they are considerably less gun shy when they are affecting land. Which made me a bit surprised that 93L wasn't upgraded at 8pm. In the end they are the boss though and we often disagree with them, but complaining about it never changed anything...Jose is still in the HURDAT database after all. In the end, I am surprised they left it at 30%.
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538. bwi
Yikes, whatever it is, there's some serious weather out there:

Conditions at 41009 as of
(7:50 pm EDT)

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 40.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 54.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 22.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
Average Period (APD): 8.0 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.63 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.16 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 72.9 °F
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537. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
528. SunnyDaysFla 12:17 AM GMT on October 10, 2011
Sub-tropical in nature Storm Q?


There is no "Q" in the Atlantic roster
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi First time I have posted...........I am supposed to be in Punta Mita beginning on Thursday 10/13. I think its just north of Puerto Valarta. Being a native of Southern California and having zero experience with Hurricanes...I am thinking the airport (PVR) will be closed and this may not be a good situation. No one in my office (we are going down for a company event) seems a bit worried. Am I over reacting?

Patty
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Rapidly falling pressures and significant wave heights of over 20 ft. off the coast of Florida..

This IS a subtropical storm.
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Quoting weatherh98:


you know it
Out of curiosity, does the 98 in your name indicate your actual age?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20829
Quoting weatherh98:
night all school isearly




there is no school its a 3 day weekend
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
One positive - no named storm = no named storm insurance deductible for damage claims
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Quoting weatherh98:


boom told you korithe


Well, I didn't say that it was wind-driven surge from the system off Florida. We've had sustained easterly winds for days, and they were part of the larger synoptic pattern. I dont think the winds this winds are being substantially altered by the system near Florida.
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night all school isearly
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting H20poloweatheraddict:
Well it looks like there may be some injuries from that transformer that just blew. The fire department and two ambulances and a couple of cops just went out that direction.

Note to everyone: when a power pole is sparking, shooting flames, and or producing other forms of pyrotechnics it is best to take cover if you are close by.
Are you in Ormond Beach? I just heard sirens going by on A1A. Saw a transformer blow out at 12am Thurs night and saw one this morning near my house that caused half the enighborhood to be without power for a few hours. Gusting to 50-55 here without a doubt in squalls.
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Sub-tropical in nature Storm Q?
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Quoting weatherh98:


boom told you korithe
I have no qualms with being wrong. ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20829
don't worry the next one has yer name written all over it fla
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54370
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NHC and their inconsistency...

Sigh..

We're looking at a Subtropical storm right now, yet the NHC decides to keep this at 30%.

Unbelievable...
there are situations after the season that sometimes systems that arent classified do classified and the people working at the NHC need to get fired for not classing 93L a sub tropical storm
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NHC and their inconsistency...

Sigh..

We're looking at a Subtropical storm right now, yet the NHC decides to keep this at 30%.

Unbelievable...

And yet they classified the many vortexes of Emily. WeatherNerd frowns upon their inconsistency.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting KoritheMan:

Itching for more after Lee, are you? ;)


you know it
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
My family in Cape Canaveral is saying the wind is getting bad. They're treating this like what it should be - a 60 mph Tropical Storm.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24177
Pressure is now falling twice as rapidly as the last 30-minute interval at the buoy off of Cape Canaveral, now down to 1003mb, illustrating how the pressure gradient increases closer to the low center, a characteristic only of tropical cyclones. Winds now 50mph gusting to 65mph at the buoy.

Link
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654

Quoting weatherh98:


hmm



support



yes its there
Itching for more after Lee, are you? ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20829
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Is that an eye? LOL


pinhole??
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting ScottLincoln:


No, Lake Pontchartrain is not still high from TS Lee. In fact, there are no waterways that remain elevated from that system along the Gulf Coast. Things returned to normal many days ago.

The sustained easterly winds, gusty during the daytime, have caused water to pile up against the Mississippi Delta and have increased tides in Pontchartrain. Nothing to do with rainfall - entirely wind-driven surge.


boom told you korithe
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
The NHC and their inconsistency...

Sigh..

We're looking at a Subtropical storm right now, yet the NHC decides to keep this at 30%.

Unbelievable...
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Quoting weatherh98:
Interesting thing is that lake pontchartrain is 1-2 feet above normal because partially of this big system
Quoting KoritheMan:


I doubt that. Lee and the additional rains that have followed are likely to blame, at least moreso than this.


No, Lake Pontchartrain is not still high from TS Lee. In fact, there are no waterways that remain elevated from that system along the Gulf Coast. Things returned to normal many days ago.

The sustained easterly winds, gusty during the daytime, have caused water to pile up against the Mississippi Delta and have increased tides in Pontchartrain. Nothing to do with rainfall - entirely wind-driven surge.
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Is that an eye? LOL
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Looks rather tropical looking at Radar.
Think Drak was noting earlier that the radar-apparent COC is likely to be mid-level rather than at the surface.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322


hmm



support



yes its there
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Levi32:


I disagree on both counts. It is neither specific, nor do they follow it:

Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.


NHC Glossary


Agreed 100%, based on their own definition, this is a STS.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7818
Quoting CybrTeddy:
487. That's during the morning commute. Won't be fun having to drive your car to work in 50-60 mph winds and pouring rain.
We've been lucky the worst of this week's wx has happened in the p.m. or at night.... Friday was a doozy, but during afternoon rush hour rather than morning.... heaviest winds / rain / thunderstorms have been at night since last week Friday. So mostly pple have just stayed indoors, making it easier for those who absolutely have to go out.

I still don't think this is going to tighten up enough to get named b4 it goes ashore overnight.

I'm also noting 93L is still tapping into the CAR moisture.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting KoritheMan:

I agree that they should be more consistent with classification. I wasn't saying this system was or wasn't subtropical.

The NHC has provided us with a specific guideline for classification -- one that I intend to take full advantage of during debates like this.


I disagree on both counts. It is neither specific, nor do they follow it:

Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.


NHC Glossary
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
I've been watching the "red blob" convection that was headed for the East Coast and now it doesn't seem to be moving anymore?? why???
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
And the radar looks like it has the storm tracking parallel to the coast.... It may graze the cape but it doesn't look like it will push any further west than that.

Agree.
We knew this system would be complicated.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11351

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.