Major rains for Southeast U.S., TX, KS, and OK; Jova and Irwin a threat to Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on October 07, 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. I doubt that this storm will acquire enough organization to evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name, based on the latest model output, and the fact that the storm's center may well be over the state of Florida. This will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters along the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 30 - 40 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will not be able to intensify quickly.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 12, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 11 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Heavy rain event coming for drought-stricken regions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
A strong low pressure system is expected to track across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this weekend, bringing the heaviest rains of the year to drought-stricken portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas, including Abilene. Rainfall in this region has been 13 - 20 inches below normal for the year; Lubbock, Texas has had just 3 inches of rain this year, compared to a normal of 16 inches. Rainfall amount of 1 - 4 inches will be common in the region over the weekend, and may be able to reduce drought conditions from the highest level (exceptional) to the second highest level (extreme.) However, the heaviest rains will stay confined to the western half of Texas, and Texas's major cities such as Houston will see very little rain over the weekend. As of yesterday, Houston had gone 253 consecutive days without a one-inch rainstorm, a new record. The longest previous such streak was 192 days, set in 1917 - 1918. The last one inch rainstorm in the city was January 24, 2011. Remarkably, the local National Weather Service office has not issued any flood products in over a year.


Figure 2. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

Philippe being ripped up by wind shear
Hurricane Philippe, the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, doesn't have much time left as a hurricane, due to high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots that is starting to tear the storm apart. Satellite loops show Philippe has become lopsided and is now missing its eye. Philippe will continue to degrade in appearance over the next few days, and will die in the middle Atlantic without affecting any land areas.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Philippe over the mid-Atlantic taken at 10:45 am EDT October 6, 2011. At the time, Philippe was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jova and Irwin: double trouble for Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical storms spun up yesterday. The storm of greatest immediate concern is the one closest to the coast, Tropical Storm Jova. Jova is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of Jova, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. Jova is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing Jova to Category 1 strength. This is probably too conservative, and I expect Jova will be at least a Cat 2 at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be Jova's close proximity to Hurricane Irwin to its west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken Jova, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. The two storms are close enough to each other--about 650 miles apart--that they will affect each others' track, as well. Whenever two storms of at least tropical storm strength approach within 900 miles of each other, a phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect comes into play. This effect causes the two storms to rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Since the degree of rotation will depend on the relative strengths of the the two storms, and our ability to make good intensity forecasts is limited, the track forecasts for both Jova and Irwin will have a higher degree of uncertainty than usual. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Sunday night.

Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Hurricane Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect Jova. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a hurricane on the Mexican coast late next week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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649. stormwatcherCI
1:36 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting WoodyFL:
Just found out how to make these things move

Dont laugh if i mess it up.

I have been trying to figure it out but no success :)
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
648. TampaSpin
1:05 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
It appears from the Consensus of Models that the Low Pressure should develop near the NorthWestern side of Cuba. With the amount of Shear it would nearly have to be a SubTropical System one would think.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
647. Neapolitan
1:03 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13790
646. want2lrn
1:02 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting matilda101:
Hope she has a case of Pepto Bismol!!! lol


Judging by sat and forecasts, i don't think that a case will do it. But like most husbands, i did not know what i was talking about when mentioning that i thought it was a bad idea to go this time of year......
Member Since: July 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
645. TampaSpin
12:58 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Morning everyone. Looks like nearly every model has now shifted to the West Coast of Florida and the GOM. Big shift over nite with the Consensus of models.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
644. matilda101
12:50 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Hope she has a case of Pepto Bismol!!! lol
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
643. want2lrn
12:48 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
So the wife is on day three of a five day cruise from Jacksonville to Freeport and then Nassau. I am guessing that this is not setting up for a good last couple of days for her. Any thoughts from the "pros" on conditions and severity?
Member Since: July 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
642. matilda101
12:47 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Once in a while us weatherweenies get a chance to see and watch the begining and evolution of tropical system. We may be able to track it by radar, satelite, and personal observations. The good thing is that it will not likely be a intense system but one of inconvience to everyone living in the SE US.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
641. whepton3
12:43 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting Seflhurricane:
however i see it i think we will se STS rina tomorrow morning with TS warnings for good part of florida


I'm wondering though... if the assumption all along has been that an east FL coast system would ride up and then get in the SC/GA area... if it's just a tick further east it may just creep by and not do much.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
640. WoodyFL
12:39 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Morning Wood.


Morning. I guess you are in or near West Palm by your handle. Did you get any of that storm this morning? We had a big one.
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
639. wunderweatherman123
12:36 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
any change on irwin and jova?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1727
638. WoodyFL
12:36 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Just found out how to make these things move

Dont laugh if i mess it up.

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
637. OneDrop
12:35 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting hurricaneben:
You think this system (future Rina)'s flooding could spark a Civil Emergency Message for somewhere in Florida?
could be. I know where I am hasn't stopped raining in 18 hours. Ormond by the Sea.
Member Since: May 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 146
636. ChillinInTheKeys
12:34 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Morning Wood.


That's my first greeting most every morning. Heading to NSB for 3 days tomorrow. Hope it dries out some by afternoon. Mmmmmmmm... JB's oysters.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 696
635. hurricaneben
12:31 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
You think this system (future Rina)'s flooding could spark a Civil Emergency Message for somewhere in Florida?
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 421 Comments: 679
634. OneDrop
12:30 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting MarcoIslandCat5:
Weather Deteriorating
looks like.
Quoting MarcoIslandCat5:
Weather Deteriorating
Looks like Boynton Inlet if I'm not mistaken. Famous place for people to get swept off during tropical cyclones.
Member Since: May 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 146
633. GeoffreyWPB
12:24 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting WoodyFL:
Lots of moisture there.



Morning Wood.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11537
632. Seflhurricane
12:23 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting whepton3:


It's very diffuse, but SE of Andros... Closer to Eastern Cuba is where I see it.

I think that whole area it's pretty much a dart throw right now.

NHC needs a bigger circle.
however i see it i think we will se STS rina tomorrow morning with TS warnings for good part of florida
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
631. WoodyFL
12:22 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Lots of moisture there.

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
630. whepton3
12:21 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting Seflhurricane:
that area imo is the prime spot but i think its going to develop near andros island in the bahamas


It's very diffuse, but SE of Andros... Closer to Eastern Cuba is where I see it.

I think that whole area it's pretty much a dart throw right now.

NHC needs a bigger circle.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
629. AussieStorm
12:20 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Eastern U. S. - Water Vapor

Loop

Gulf Of Mexico - Water Vapor

Loop
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
628. stillwaiting
12:17 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
sefl today you should get deludged,lots o moisture offshore headed straight for cnetral and south fl,gonna be a soaka!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
627. matilda101
12:17 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Also the disturbed weather in the East Pacific has now a 70% chance of developing into a depression during the next day as it drifts EASTWARD. This could be the development in the Caribbean some of the models are hinting for next week. The land mass in that part in Central America is not that wide and it could cross it into the Caribbean Sea fairly intact.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
626. whepton3
12:16 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting WxLogic:


:) I agree... it is also in a prime ascending region of the developing cut OFF low in the C GOM.


Agreed.

When I was looking around this morning it all started to line up.

Looking forward to today's models... I expect before the night is out we should have a better handle on the endgame.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
625. WoodyFL
12:15 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER MUCH
OF CUBA...MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ALL OF THE BAHAMAS.
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


So what your're saying is, bad Bar-B-Que day?
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
624. Seflhurricane
12:14 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting stillwaiting:
our hybrid low trying to organize around fl straits area,i expect a named system in less than 48hrs,probably sts...
that area imo is the prime spot but i think its going to develop near andros island in the bahamas
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
623. WxLogic
12:12 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting whepton3:


You had to let the cat out of the bag didn't you?

This place will go bonkers.

Looks about right... I was looking at the ASCAT products and it looks like something may try to get together east of Cuba.


:) I agree... it is also in a prime ascending region of the developing cut OFF low in the C GOM.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
622. stillwaiting
12:12 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
i'd expect multiple vorticies with this hybrid low,which one becomes dominant and possibly becomes tropical????,i'd bet on either right over the keys or just to the west...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
621. whepton3
12:06 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting WxLogic:
Morning...

Link


You had to let the cat out of the bag didn't you?

This place will go bonkers.

Looks about right... I was looking at the ASCAT products and it looks like something may try to get together east of Cuba.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
620. matilda101
12:05 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
In watching the radar over South Florida watch for the convection to gradually move northwesterly than westerly that it is currently doing. If a surface low is developing south of Florida
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
619. whepton3
12:04 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting stillwaiting:
our hybrid low trying to organize around fl straits area,i expect a named system in less than 48hrs,probably sts...


Like your handle, I'm still waiting.

Trying to put a finger on where it will get together.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
618. stillwaiting
12:02 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
our hybrid low trying to organize around fl straits area,i expect a named system in less than 48hrs,probably sts...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
617. whepton3
12:02 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
ASCAT pass this morning seems to line up with this:

Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
616. GeoffreyWPB
12:00 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER MUCH
OF CUBA...MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ALL OF THE BAHAMAS.
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11537
615. WxLogic
11:59 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
Morning...

Link
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
614. GeoffreyWPB
11:57 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11537
613. matilda101
11:57 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
I noticed the pressures are falling in South Florida this morning.

Radar seems to be showing a curve or turning due south of the southern point Florida and the north coast of Cuba.

NHC has just put the entire area under a 20% chance of tropical development.

This may be the beginings of a tropical development
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
612. whepton3
11:53 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting LargoFl:
also flood watch up for most of the east coast counties already, weather channel said 4 to 6 inches have fallen already and more to come, going to be an interesting weekend for sure


Yeah it's weird.

I've been on here the last couple of days and people north of me are getting smoked, and we've really gotten one brief shower here in Boca about nine hours ago.

We're under the watch, and I think I read yesterday that there was some line of thinking that the big pull of moisture will start to spread south today.

NWS discussion for S. FL seems to be advertising that as the day wears on things will get worse and worse here.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
611. LargoFl
11:50 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting whepton3:


It's not really a tropical storm... just a set up that makes for high winds because of the pressure gradient... and a good pull of moisture across FL right now.

We're all waiting on some sort of hybrid/subtropical/tropical system to take shape somewhere near S. FL. either on the east side or the west side.

Without something there, nobody knows what it will be or how intense it is or where it goes.

stay tuned.
also flood watch up for most of the east coast counties already, weather channel said 4 to 6 inches have fallen already and more to come, going to be an interesting weekend for sure
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42036
610. aspectre
11:46 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
While waiting for the 12pmGMT_ATCF...
TS.Phillipe's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 7Oct_6amGMT and ending 8Oct_6amGMT

The 4 western line-segments represent TropicalStormPhillippe's path,
the easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 8Oct_6amGMT,
the island blob at 33.025n16.38w-PXO is the endpoint of the 8Oct_12amGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline dumbbell at 33.11n8.634w-CAS is the same for the 7Oct_12pmGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Phillipe's travel-speed was 20.7mph(33.3k/h) on a heading of 73.4degrees(ENE)
TS.Phillipe was headed toward passage over Azemmour,Morocco ~4days20hours from now

Copy&paste 33.11n8.634w-cas, 33.025n16.38w-pxo, 29.2n57.4w-29.6n56.2w, 29.6n56.2w-29.9n55.1w, 29.9n55.1w-30.3n53.4w, 30.3n53.4w-30.8n51.4w, 30.3n53.4w-33.33n8.33w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 8Oct_12amGMT
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
609. whepton3
11:44 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting TropicTraveler:
So the storm off of Florida looks like a straight line winds tropical storm with heavy rain. Is there is such a thing? It would seem to need a low in the gulf to pull it inward toward the coast, yet the barometric pressures in the Gulf look high. Somebody who knows more than I do please shed some perspective on this?


It's not really a tropical storm... just a set up that makes for high winds because of the pressure gradient... and a good pull of moisture across FL right now.

We're all waiting on some sort of hybrid/subtropical/tropical system to take shape somewhere near S. FL. either on the east side or the west side.

Without something there, nobody knows what it will be or how intense it is or where it goes.

stay tuned.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
608. LargoFl
11:41 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting TropicTraveler:
P.S. Good morning everyone. I love this site!
good morning everyone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42036
607. whepton3
11:40 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting MarcoIslandCat5:
Weather Deteriorating


Good pic!

Today will go downhill over where you're at and it sure will over here on the east side as well.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
606. LargoFl
11:39 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting OneDrop:
Thanks, its just a total deluge. I just moved here from Deerfield Beach and will post some storm pics from the ocean when or if the rain let's up enough for me to get down there. Nasty out!!
ok suns out here fair blue sky but its weird,high sirrus clouds just sitting there, not moving at all..like a painting
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42036
605. TropicTraveler
11:38 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
P.S. Good morning everyone. I love this site!
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
604. TropicTraveler
11:37 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
So the storm off of Florida looks like a straight line winds tropical storm with heavy rain. Is there is such a thing? It would seem to need a low in the gulf to pull it inward toward the coast, yet the barometric pressures in the Gulf look high. Somebody who knows more than I do please shed some perspective on this?
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
603. MarcoIslandCat5
11:36 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
Weather Deteriorating
Member Since: October 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
602. OneDrop
11:18 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting LargoFl:
stay safe over there,so far the east coast is getting all the action, just breezy and dry here
Thanks, its just a total deluge. I just moved here from Deerfield Beach and will post some storm pics from the ocean when or if the rain let's up enough for me to get down there. Nasty out!!
Member Since: May 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 146
601. whepton3
11:14 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
Interesting ASCAT pass with winds changing direction N. of Hispaniola:

Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
600. whepton3
10:56 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting LargoFl:
stay safe over there,so far the east coast is getting all the action, just breezy and dry here


It definitely is a hit and miss thing... I'm in Boca and we had one good downpour at about 9:00 last night... hasn't rained since then.

Lots of lightning around... and I think I see a squall coming in off the ocean now... under a flood watch with conditions expected to go in the tank today.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
599. LargoFl
10:53 AM GMT on October 08, 2011
Quoting OneDrop:
I live on the beach in Ormond by the Sea now and we've been getting pummeled all night. Winds gusting beyond 45 at times. Lightning galore and heavy rain. Looks to get worse in the.coming days. My.parents are driving up from Delray and I'm thinking about telling them to bag it this weekend.
stay safe over there,so far the east coast is getting all the action, just breezy and dry here
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42036

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