Major rains for Southeast U.S., TX, KS, and OK; Jova and Irwin a threat to Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on October 07, 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. I doubt that this storm will acquire enough organization to evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name, based on the latest model output, and the fact that the storm's center may well be over the state of Florida. This will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters along the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 30 - 40 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will not be able to intensify quickly.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 12, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 11 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Heavy rain event coming for drought-stricken regions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
A strong low pressure system is expected to track across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this weekend, bringing the heaviest rains of the year to drought-stricken portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas, including Abilene. Rainfall in this region has been 13 - 20 inches below normal for the year; Lubbock, Texas has had just 3 inches of rain this year, compared to a normal of 16 inches. Rainfall amount of 1 - 4 inches will be common in the region over the weekend, and may be able to reduce drought conditions from the highest level (exceptional) to the second highest level (extreme.) However, the heaviest rains will stay confined to the western half of Texas, and Texas's major cities such as Houston will see very little rain over the weekend. As of yesterday, Houston had gone 253 consecutive days without a one-inch rainstorm, a new record. The longest previous such streak was 192 days, set in 1917 - 1918. The last one inch rainstorm in the city was January 24, 2011. Remarkably, the local National Weather Service office has not issued any flood products in over a year.


Figure 2. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

Philippe being ripped up by wind shear
Hurricane Philippe, the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, doesn't have much time left as a hurricane, due to high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots that is starting to tear the storm apart. Satellite loops show Philippe has become lopsided and is now missing its eye. Philippe will continue to degrade in appearance over the next few days, and will die in the middle Atlantic without affecting any land areas.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Philippe over the mid-Atlantic taken at 10:45 am EDT October 6, 2011. At the time, Philippe was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jova and Irwin: double trouble for Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical storms spun up yesterday. The storm of greatest immediate concern is the one closest to the coast, Tropical Storm Jova. Jova is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of Jova, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. Jova is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing Jova to Category 1 strength. This is probably too conservative, and I expect Jova will be at least a Cat 2 at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be Jova's close proximity to Hurricane Irwin to its west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken Jova, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. The two storms are close enough to each other--about 650 miles apart--that they will affect each others' track, as well. Whenever two storms of at least tropical storm strength approach within 900 miles of each other, a phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect comes into play. This effect causes the two storms to rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Since the degree of rotation will depend on the relative strengths of the the two storms, and our ability to make good intensity forecasts is limited, the track forecasts for both Jova and Irwin will have a higher degree of uncertainty than usual. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Sunday night.

Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Hurricane Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect Jova. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a hurricane on the Mexican coast late next week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Oh yes, the voice of Gene Deckerhoff! Unfortunately, because of the rules... blackouts have been a common thing, so the only way I could watch the Bucs is through the radio.

But it is going to be great weather in SF this weekend for a ball game! Sunny and 70s... absolutely perfect CA weather.


I've been keeping up with posts on FB by friends at the game. :-) Maybe, since the Bucs are doing so well, we'll have fewer blackouts. Let's hope so!! GO BUCS!!
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Rain fall varys greatly within the same area. In my area of S.W. Florida (Ft. Myers) as of Oct. 1 totals range from 22.52" out at the beach (Lovers Key) to 46.86" at the Waste Energy Plant.

I live just east of I75 (good sea breeze effect)and we've had over 46" at my location.

I live in Buckingham and have had 53 inches of rain this year. 5 days of over 4 inches. The front end is finally drying out
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Latest NAM is about finished. Its holding tuff with a low moving into and across South Florida.

It will be interesting to see which scenario holds true. GFS has been holding tuff with a low staying off the East Coast.

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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Awesome and congrats! Wishing you many, many more!!! Same thing with my brother, come to think about it... rained the morning of his wedding, and has been married for 13... perhaps it is good luck then. Ahhh... you know, old wives' tales anyways, never can be relied upon.


now that isn't to say i haven't wanted to hit him with a frying pan here and there roflmbo...but we stayed married :)
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Strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Atlantic for most of October?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting JasonCoooolMan2011:
WIND SHEER WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Really dude?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Has anybody been monitoring this?



Looks impressive... thinking this will be drawn into the mass that is about to soak the SE CONUS.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/AOI/XX
MARK
14.85N/69.23W

lol Keep, good to know you see it to!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hi, a couple things can happen here, the ULL could work down to the surface and spawn a low in the eastern gulf or the blow-up of convection in the central Caribbean could combine with the stalled out front and spawn a low in the Bahamas. Maybe even more of a complex situation is both occurring and we get multiple areas of low pressure. Let me know what you think.
The blob in the Central Caribbean is a tropical wave associated some divergence aloft. The 1032 MB high over the Eastern U.S.will keep hybrid low, gale center or whatever this system evolves into from going anywhere fast. I believe there is to much shear for much of a surface low to form,and if it does should be weak. The GEM model has been showing several areas of low pressure as the system pulls together. Really hard to say how strong or large this low will become, but the pressure gradient is certainly going increase windspeeds considerably.jmo...GEM link..Link
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


nah...rained on my wedding day and have been married almost 17 years so far


Awesome and congrats! Wishing you many, many more!!! Same thing with my brother, come to think about it... rained the morning of his wedding, and has been married for 13... perhaps it is good luck then. Ahhh... you know, old wives' tales anyways, never can be relied upon.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Has anybody been monitoring this?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
XX/AOI/XX
MARK
14.85N/69.23W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


I have heard that rain on the wedding day is bad luck... so lets hope not!


nah...rained on my wedding day and have been married almost 17 years so far
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Quoting NoNamePub:
Ohhhh Man - 
I have a buddy getting Married in Islamorada TOMORROW!!!
Will it be a wash out down there? 



I have heard that rain on the wedding day is bad luck... so lets hope not!
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I love hearing Touchdown Tampa Bay!!! :)


Oh yes, the voice of Gene Deckerhoff! Unfortunately, because of the rules... blackouts have been a common thing, so the only way I could watch the Bucs is through the radio.

But it is going to be great weather in SF this weekend for a ball game! Sunny and 70s... absolutely perfect CA weather.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Ohhhh Man - 
I have a buddy getting Married in Islamorada TOMORROW!!!
Will it be a wash out down there? 

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Quoting Tampawxgirl:


Thanks, ecflweatherfan!! They've been playing well lately... lots of cannons going off. :-)
I love hearing Touchdown Tampa Bay!!! :)
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Quoting Tampawxgirl:


Thanks, ecflweatherfan!! They've been playing well lately... lots of cannons going off. :-)


Let's keep the Bay rockin' with many more too! All the way into the playoffs, heck another Super Bowl would be nice... but am ok with playoffs at this stage of the game.
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Quoting JasonCoooolMan2011:
WIND SHEER WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
jason just teasing the low levels watch out when it goes down
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Looking at the WV loops of the carribean,things really firing up all over the place,whatever gets going down there is going to have alot of moisture to work with.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Hey Tampawxgirl... LOVE the avatar! GO BUCS... Fire the cannons!


Thanks, ecflweatherfan!! They've been playing well lately... lots of cannons going off. :-)
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:
One thing that would REALLY get this blog moving is if the NHC highlighted the NW Carib, SW Atlantic or E GOMEX (or perhaps all three) for tropical or subtropical cyclone development (all we would need is a yellow circle there).
soon
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Quoting hydrus:
Someone mentioned it 3 days ago..Cannot remember who tho.


Oh, that's cool. Dont think I was on the other day to catch that. But it is noteworthy for sure... often overlooked with the impending rain threat.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting Tampawxgirl:


We had a little rain about an hour ago. I think I'm going to hunker down for the weekend. My plans are to sit on the porch with some iced tea and some good books and enjoy the rain. I agree with an earlier poster that we may not need the rain right now, but there will be no complaints from me. The lake my parents live on is still very low after being pumped several years ago and I would love to see it go back up.


Hey Tampawxgirl... LOVE the avatar! GO BUCS... Fire the cannons!
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting hydrus:
Hi, a couple things can happen here, the ULL could work down to the surface and spawn a low in the eastern gulf or the blow-up of convection in the central Caribbean could combine with the stalled out front and spawn a low in the Bahamas. Maybe even more of a complex situation is both occurring and we get multiple areas of low pressure. Let me know what you think.
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hmm
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Quoting kipperedherring:
I think Tiggerificis a cool name.


thank you... tigger is my favorite disney character... i try every day to have a tiggeriffic day :)
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29.3n57.4w, 29.8n56.2w have been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Phillipe's_7Oct_6pmGMT_ATCF
29.2n57.4w, 29.6n56.2w, 29.9n55.1w are now the most recent positions
Starting 6Oct_6pmGMT and ending 7Oct_6pmGMT

The 4 western line-segments represent TropicalStormPhillippe's path,
the easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 7Oct_6pmGMT,
the ocean-to-island blob at 37.626n25.51w-PDL is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 7Oct_12pmGMT*mapping,
and the coastline blob at 33.75n7.31w-CAS is the same for the 7Oct_6amGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Phillipe's travel-speed was 11.5mph(18.5k/h) on a heading of 72.4degrees(ENE)
TS.Phillipe was headed toward passage over DouarOuladZid,Morocco ~9days19hours from now

Copy&paste 33.75n7.31w-cas, 37.626n25.51w-pdl, 28.3n59.7w-28.8n58.7w, 28.8n58.7w-29.2n57.4w, 29.2n57.4w-29.6n56.2w, 29.6n56.2w-29.9n55.1w, 29.6n56.2w-33.11n8.634w, cas into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 7Oct_12pmGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Something also worth mentioning... while no one is certain of where the low will develop... rest assured, that if it moves into the eastern GOMEX, it will present another threat to the FL peninsula, as well as GA and SC... isolated tornadoes. NWS Melbourne mentioned it in their forecast discussions yesterday and today.
Someone mentioned it 3 days ago..Cannot remember who tho.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Ok, now I'm starting to see a hint of bad weather for Florida in the coming days.


We had a little rain about an hour ago. I think I'm going to hunker down for the weekend. My plans are to sit on the porch with some iced tea and some good books and enjoy the rain. I agree with an earlier poster that we may not need the rain right now, but there will be no complaints from me. The lake my parents live on is still very low after being pumped several years ago and I would love to see it go back up.
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Something also worth mentioning... while no one is certain of where the low will develop... rest assured, that if it moves into the eastern GOMEX, it will present another threat to the FL peninsula, as well as GA and SC... isolated tornadoes. NWS Melbourne mentioned it in their forecast discussions yesterday and today.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Ok, now I'm starting to see a hint of bad weather for Florida in the coming days.
Things are happen fast now.
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213. 7544
hmm new blob watch just south of pr stating to fire up could have a spin to it now
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Since it's a little slow at the moment, thought you might like this somewhat weather-related, newly-posted video of nature doing its thing at the Cornish North Cliffs:



Newspaper story

You'd think that would cause a little tsunami!
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FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
236 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FLZ041-045>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-147-082000 -
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.A.0001.111007T2000Z-111010T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
INLAND VOLUSIA-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-OSCEOLA-
INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE LAND...ORLANDO...SANFORD...
MELBOURNE...PALM BAY...KISSIMMEE...ST CLOUD...VERO BEACH...
OKEECHOBEE...FORT PIERCE...HOBE SOUND...DAYTONA BEACH...
TITUSVILLE
236 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...COASTAL VOLUSIA...INDIAN RIVER...INLAND
VOLUSIA...MARTIN...NORTHERN BREVARD...OKEECHOBEE...ORANGE...
OSCEOLA...SEMINOLE...SOUTHERN BREVARD AND ST. LUCIE.

* THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTH. UPWARDS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ALREADY TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE
OF UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES. INLAND AREAS WILL RECEIVE 2 TO
3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES
LOCALLY. THESE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS COULD CAUSE FLOODING
OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THROUGH THE WATCH PERIOD.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$


BOWEN/PENDERGRAST
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:
One thing that would REALLY get this blog moving is if the NHC highlighted the NW Carib, SW Atlantic or E GOMEX (or perhaps all three) for tropical or subtropical cyclone development (all we would need is a yellow circle there).


That's what I've been waiting for all afternoon too! I love it when I see an area that I think looks interesting and then NHC makes it a yellow area later on:) Makes me smart...or lucky.
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Ok, now I'm starting to see a hint of bad weather for Florida in the coming days.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well Philippe...You struggled and struggled to reach hurricane status, and you did it. I hope you were happy as a hurricane, but now its time to say good bye.



Now watch his naked little center plow through that trough and head for North Carolina.... :)
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FLOOD WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA as the NWS in Melbourne is expecting 4-8" of rain along the coast (some places 8-10")
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
This wind model looks to be based off the GFS. Other wind models that are based off the NAM look quite different with the highest winds off the East Coast and West Coast.
Based on this wind model, winds are in excess of 45 knots off shore.

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96 hours.
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One thing that would REALLY get this blog moving is if the NHC highlighted the NW Carib, SW Atlantic or E GOMEX (or perhaps all three) for tropical or subtropical cyclone development (all we would need is a yellow circle there).
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Jason's back!
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Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm going to be honest, that Palmer drought map is not very accurate, we have a 13 inch surplus for the year here in Central Florida, and most of central and south Florida except the far eastern areas are at or above average. There is nothing close to a drought in West Central Florida. The east and southeast coast is still a drought, but only a minority of Central and South Florida is in drought, that map makes it seems like a large majority is, which just isn't true.

We will take more rain for sure though, and the East Coast which still has some drought should get quite the soaking.


We're 12 inches low here in Melbourne. We need the rain!!!
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Quoting Drakoen:


ECMWF has been hinting that a broad area of low pressure would form in the Caribbean for several runs now (not to denigrate your post). The GFS has also been suggesting development in the long range as well, and with the upcoming pulse of the MJO it certainly would not be out of the question as the activity shifts from the Eastern Pacific to the Western Atlantic.


Ya, and at the speed the models are showing the MJO moving at we may see it back in Nov also.
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Looks like the Tail of the Front is what will possibly develop. South of Cuba or North of Cuba will be the issue.
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Quoting Drakoen:


ECMWF has been hinting that a broad area of low pressure would form in the Caribbean for several runs now (not to denigrate your post). The GFS has also been suggesting development in the long range as well, and with the upcoming pulse of the MJO it certainly would not be out of the question as the activity shifts from the Eastern Pacific to the Western Atlantic.
just came back from orlando, the rain was coming down so hard, I-4 was doing maybe 20-25 mph..so you know how bad it was, you could not see the car in front of you nor on the side of you, guess this is what we can expect more of this weekend
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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