Major rains for Southeast U.S., TX, KS, and OK; Jova and Irwin a threat to Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on October 07, 2011

Share this Blog
19
+

A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. I doubt that this storm will acquire enough organization to evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name, based on the latest model output, and the fact that the storm's center may well be over the state of Florida. This will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters along the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 30 - 40 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will not be able to intensify quickly.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 12, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 11 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Heavy rain event coming for drought-stricken regions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
A strong low pressure system is expected to track across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this weekend, bringing the heaviest rains of the year to drought-stricken portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas, including Abilene. Rainfall in this region has been 13 - 20 inches below normal for the year; Lubbock, Texas has had just 3 inches of rain this year, compared to a normal of 16 inches. Rainfall amount of 1 - 4 inches will be common in the region over the weekend, and may be able to reduce drought conditions from the highest level (exceptional) to the second highest level (extreme.) However, the heaviest rains will stay confined to the western half of Texas, and Texas's major cities such as Houston will see very little rain over the weekend. As of yesterday, Houston had gone 253 consecutive days without a one-inch rainstorm, a new record. The longest previous such streak was 192 days, set in 1917 - 1918. The last one inch rainstorm in the city was January 24, 2011. Remarkably, the local National Weather Service office has not issued any flood products in over a year.


Figure 2. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

Philippe being ripped up by wind shear
Hurricane Philippe, the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, doesn't have much time left as a hurricane, due to high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots that is starting to tear the storm apart. Satellite loops show Philippe has become lopsided and is now missing its eye. Philippe will continue to degrade in appearance over the next few days, and will die in the middle Atlantic without affecting any land areas.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Philippe over the mid-Atlantic taken at 10:45 am EDT October 6, 2011. At the time, Philippe was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jova and Irwin: double trouble for Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical storms spun up yesterday. The storm of greatest immediate concern is the one closest to the coast, Tropical Storm Jova. Jova is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of Jova, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. Jova is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29┬░C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing Jova to Category 1 strength. This is probably too conservative, and I expect Jova will be at least a Cat 2 at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be Jova's close proximity to Hurricane Irwin to its west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken Jova, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. The two storms are close enough to each other--about 650 miles apart--that they will affect each others' track, as well. Whenever two storms of at least tropical storm strength approach within 900 miles of each other, a phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect comes into play. This effect causes the two storms to rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Since the degree of rotation will depend on the relative strengths of the the two storms, and our ability to make good intensity forecasts is limited, the track forecasts for both Jova and Irwin will have a higher degree of uncertainty than usual. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Sunday night.

Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Hurricane Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect Jova. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a hurricane on the Mexican coast late next week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 299 - 249

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Ok, things must have changed. Last I heard there was a good chance it was going to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like some Bloggers are causing problems today. .......NOTHING NEW!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting TampaSpin:




LMAO


Yeah, I know. In my lifetime I have heard sea level rise theories from a couple feet to 300. So, I do not believe their estimates.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


What have we here?? hmmmm


We have a 12 day old SAT image.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
253. Jedkins01

Your problem is you try to extrapolate your local conditions to the rest of Florida, so no matter how much data and links that are posted, you still disagree and quickly backpeddle.


Again, that was your problem, not mine :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


What have we here?? hmmmm

That's old...like September 25 old.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting tampahurricane:
Well is the Tampabay area not expecting much from this storm or something. I see they only put the flood watches along the east coast?


Seems like the end line on the south side for the watches is Palm Beach Co. for now...

I don't think the county got enough rain today... but it'll come.

Wouldn't be shocked if it happens over in your neck of the woods before this is all over in a couple of days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


What have we here?? hmmmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting tampahurricane:
Well is the Tampabay area not expecting much from this storm or something. I see they only put the flood watches along the east coast?


Don't worry. Tampa will get some rain from this. The reason they posted Flood Watches along the east coast, is because that is where most of the rain is expected... between 4-8" (possibly up to 10" in spots). Tampa will probably get between 1-3".
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
there is a tiny blue area in between all those reds that shows yes parts of e cen fl. are ahead of average rainfall
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Tell you what, I would be ok with spending a few extra dollars a month on desalination plants along the coast that convert salt water to fresh multi-use water. After all, according to scientists (and I do not believe this way), sea level is going to rise by 300 feet in a few years. Might as well make some room for the influx of molten ice caps coming. No... cant do that because of the environmentalists will complain. But then again, they will complain if we don't conserve fresh water. So what do we do? Water restrictions are good, but it will NOT solve the long term issues. Only thing we can do is hope for rain.




LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Well is the Tampabay area not expecting much from this storm or something. I see they only put the flood watches along the east coast?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
253. Jedkins01

Your problem is you try to extrapolate your local conditions to the rest of Florida, so no matter how much data and links that are posted, you still disagree and quickly backpeddle.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:



The problem with this whole situation, is even if South Florida got 100 inches of rain, it would never end the water shortage completely, eventually the water shortages would return again. We live in a modern world that has high population yet has very little respect for the environment. No other organism/life form other than us ruins the environment or upsets the balance of nature no matter how high the population is. If human beings learned to use our technology to recycle, repair, and conserve, like everything else does on this planet, instead of destroy and ruin because its easier or saves money, than maybe we wouldn't have these issues.

Much of Florida's water issues have nothing to due with drought, drought is natural, but us humans waste so much water. And Florida's huge population combined with that most of society is wasteful has led to the crises you see. Droughts are part of Florida, and so are rainy periods. In the past they balanced themselves out before the wastefulness.


Tell you what, I would be ok with spending a few extra dollars a month on desalination plants along the coast that convert salt water to fresh multi-use water. After all, according to scientists (and I do not believe this way), sea level is going to rise by 300 feet in a few years. Might as well make some room for the influx of molten ice caps coming. No... cant do that because of the environmentalists will complain. But then again, they will complain if we don't conserve fresh water. So what do we do? Water restrictions are good, but it will NOT solve the long term issues. Only thing we can do is hope for rain.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting sfladoom2011:



yes sure levi has been saying this was going to happen since sept 25...here we are going into mid october and you want to push it back another 10 days...if this keeps up it will be snowing in florida before this happens...what a joke..


10 days from now is mid October. I didn't push it back, the MJO just had to kick around.

All Caribbean development has been contingent upon the MJO pulse returning.

Right on time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
like i posted a few pages back this area just south of pr is still blowing up could see a yellow code soon ? from the nhc


Stay tuned...

next update at 8P.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z ECMWF has a nice TS in the Caribbean at 240 hours




Seems like everybody is on board now with a system about 10 days out.

I think I've sen the GFS with it, and the CMC suggested it this morning.

Gang is all in agreement it seems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sfladoom2011:



whats wrong with you man just stating my opinion with real mets say about this...they are so wrong like they been wrong most of this season....


Well I'm sorry, I just know there have been many posters in the past that come here just to post things like that in order to start trouble.

You are entitled to your opinion yes, but no they haven't been wrong most of the season. They have done very well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
277. 7544
like i posted a few pages back this area just south of pr is still blowing up could see a yellow code soon ? from the nhc
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z ECMWF has a nice TS in the Caribbean at 240 hours


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whepton3:


It's probably for the best.

Besides, I'd hate to miss that debate, and I have to go water my plants.

Today is my second day this week I can do it:

From SFWMD:

Residential Irrigation, Agriculture and Other Uses Must be Reduced
Although summer rains have provided some relief, ground and surface water levels in many areas of South Florida have been slow to recover after record-low rainfall from October to mid-June.

In response, water shortage orders remain in effect to limit landscape irrigation to two days per week throughout most of the South Florida Water Management District's 16-county region. South Florida lawns typically only need 3/4 to 1 inch of water per week, which can be delivered primarily from rain during the wet season.

The West Palm Beach City Commission has implemented additional one-day-a-week emergency restrictions that apply to its utility service area, which includes the Towns of Palm Beach and South Palm Beach. The City of Lake Worth also has one-day-a-week irrigation restrictions in effect.



The problem with this whole situation, is even if South Florida got 100 inches of rain, it would never end the water shortage completely, eventually the water shortages would return again. We live in a modern world that has high population yet has very little respect for the environment. No other organism/life form other than us ruins the environment or upsets the balance of nature no matter how high the population is. If human beings learned to use our technology to recycle, repair, and conserve, like everything else does on this planet, instead of destroy and ruin because its easier or saves money, than maybe we wouldn't have these issues.

Much of Florida's water issues have nothing to due with drought, drought is natural, but us humans waste so much water. And Florida's huge population combined with that most of society is wasteful has led to the crises you see. Droughts are part of Florida, and so are rainy periods. In the past they balanced themselves out before the wastefulness.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
83 w/ 34% humidity in C IL, can't beat this! We're a little below avg on rainfall, but since were in middle of harvest, not many complaints. 40 in morning last weekend bringing out the colors too. Hope all those who need rain, esp Texas, gets some. And can't forget - Go Cards!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


But we are still talking localized, I tried to explain that many times on the issue of surface area.

Just because some of you may live in some of the drier regions leftover doesn't mean the entire area is dry. Unfortunately the convective patterns the last 2 years have featured repeated pounding of about 60 to 70% of the area while almost completely avoiding about 30% as far as the long term rainfall goes.

I'm not sure why that is because rainfall used to be more reliable. This year i got clobbered with over 50 inches since late June, while some of you guys have had maybe what, 15 inches since then? But overall the majority of the area is wet rather than dry. Most places aren't nearly as wet as me though.


Right, but what I was saying earlier about it... those maps are showing an average. And the reason they are showing drought is the fact that the areal extent of more severe drought outweighs the amount of areal extent that is in surplus... to what degree, not sure, e.g. abnormally dry-drought conditions exist. And the drought monitor is a more long term indicator as opposed to a short term, and is weighted as such. If Texas were to get 10" of rain today, there would be flooding and things like that... but just because there is flooding, does that mean the drought is over? No. Because the flooding would be caused by runoff, not necessarily soaking into the ground. And we know how much runoff there can be with the typical summer afternoon thunderstorm here in FL. Sure, you may get a thunderstorm that drops 3" on you in an hour... but how much is actually soaking in. One day back in June, I got over two inches of rain, in a matter of an hour, as soon as I went outside, I rubbed my foot over the top layer of the soil. About 1/4" down, it was bone dry. Drought goes far beyond the surface of the soil... the KBDI is soil moisture content, but does not account for the low aquifer or anything like that.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting sfladoom2011:



well i can assure you tampa has nothing to worry about getting that much rain...they will be lucky if they get and inch of rain out of this nothing system..
That's not what real meteorologists say about this event, please don't cause trouble.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Looking really, really green in the Caribbean.

Feels like the MJO is already over here with the way it has blown up today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


Exactly, but apparently me explaining how averages work, and posting Florida's official drought map doesn't quite cut it. I rest my case on this, because its not worth starting any sort of unrest here.


It's probably for the best.

Besides, I'd hate to miss that debate, and I have to go water my plants.

Today is my second day this week I can do it:

From SFWMD:

Residential Irrigation, Agriculture and Other Uses Must be Reduced
Although summer rains have provided some relief, ground and surface water levels in many areas of South Florida have been slow to recover after record-low rainfall from October to mid-June.

In response, water shortage orders remain in effect to limit landscape irrigation to two days per week throughout most of the South Florida Water Management District's 16-county region. South Florida lawns typically only need 3/4 to 1 inch of water per week, which can be delivered primarily from rain during the wet season.

The West Palm Beach City Commission has implemented additional one-day-a-week emergency restrictions that apply to its utility service area, which includes the Towns of Palm Beach and South Palm Beach. The City of Lake Worth also has one-day-a-week irrigation restrictions in effect.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tampawxgirl:


I wish I had taken a picture of one of the many times I had to wade in 6-9" of water this summer. I do worry about areas of Pinellas county that are prone to flooding, though.
About half of Pinellas has flooded many times this summer. I live in Pinellas and we had several minor flood events this summer which don't usually occur unless several inches in one day falls.

Many of my friends areas of flooded several times the last few months also, nothing major but that's not surprising, it takes much more extreme rain to equal the flooding that occurs up north from more tropical rains.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Last weekend's snow in the North Carolina mountains was the earliest measurable snowfall ever recorded in North Carolina.
The National Weather Service says a half-inch of snow was recorded on Beech Mountain on Saturday, Oct. 1.
Forecasters say the earliest recorded snow before this year came on Oct. 5, 1980, when 4 inches of snow fell on Mount Mitchell.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Been watching that all day , but nobody mentions it,looks interesting to me.
I typed a post about it earlier. Tropical wave associated with upper level divergence to its S.E.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22314

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
346 PM CDT Friday Oct 7 2011



Short term...
although much of the area has no impacts...showers have been tracking along the la coastal parishes all day.
Fetch of moisture actually extends from the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure to the north is keeping much of the area dry and that will continue at least in the short term.

Temperatures to be near normal areawide.

Likely have continued isolated showers along the coast overnight as well as into tomorrow.


Long term...

upper level and very strong surface ridge will remain stationary over the northeastern US through the weekend and into early next week.

Meanwhile...models still indicate surface low to develop somewhere between SW and southeast of Florida.

Run to run consistency remains good while not so much on model to model.

Each indicates development late this weekend and a northerly track.

If European model (ecmwf) is correct...may need to bump up probability of precipitation slightly on Eastern portions of the County Warning Area with its more westerly track.

If GFS is right...opposite.

For now kept previous forecast which has up to chance probability of precipitation through the event. Otherwise...will
be quite breezy for much of the area.


Upper trough will swing across the country towards the middle of next week which will shift the ridge eastward as well as bring a cold front through the area.
Right now looks to be a fairly dry
boundary.


Meffer
&&
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BobinTampa:
I can tell you for a fact there is NO FREAKING WAY the Tampa area needs 9-12 inches of rain. We've been above average for quite awhile.



Exactly, but apparently me explaining how averages work, and posting Florida's official drought map doesn't quite cut it. I rest my case on this, because its not worth starting any sort of unrest here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BobinTampa:
I can tell you for a fact there is NO FREAKING WAY the Tampa area needs 9-12 inches of rain. We've been above average for quite awhile.

Well I guess they expect us to become the new tropical rain forest :-P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That is a very robust blob at around 14N 68W.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


If you insist that Florida is a dried desert, then ignore the massive amount of heavy rain that has fallen in many areas :)


I wish I had taken a picture of one of the many times I had to wade in 6-9" of water this summer. I do worry about areas of Pinellas county that are prone to flooding, though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


For one thing, I know there is a long term drought (to what degree is debatable), because many locations that are below normal in FL this year also closed out below normal last year. I know Melbourne was over 12" below normal last year, plus the nearly 12" below this year... gives us a long term deficit of 24", that is drought.


But we are still talking localized, I tried to explain that many times on the issue of surface area.

Just because some of you may live in some of the drier regions leftover doesn't mean the entire area is dry. Unfortunately the convective patterns the last 2 years have featured repeated rains over about 65 to 75% of the area while almost completely avoiding about 25% as far as the long term rainfall goes.

I'm not sure why that is because rainfall used to be more uniform I think. This year I got clobbered with over 45 inches since late June, and I had a huge 11 inches rain even in late March with a tornado outbreak, so I'm sitting at over 65 inches for the year. Whereas some of you guys have had maybe what, 15 inches since then? But overall the majority of the area is wet rather than dry. Most places aren't nearly as wet as me though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I can tell you for a fact there is NO FREAKING WAY the Tampa area needs 9-12 inches of rain. We've been above average for quite awhile.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tampawxgirl:


I've been keeping up with posts on FB by friends at the game. :-) Maybe, since the Bucs are doing so well, we'll have fewer blackouts. Let's hope so!! GO BUCS!!
Well so far so good, we sold out MNF, got to see the game and won the game:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Has anybody been monitoring this?

Been watching that all day , but nobody mentions it,looks interesting to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Link to NOAA gauges in South Florida showing this?


Well, the NWS at Miami released a report a few weeks ago that showed rainfall totals at all areas for the the end of the wet season, both rain season totals, and yearly totals. It showed that there were a few locations near the Southeast Coast and the lake Okee' that still had 10 to 15 inch deficits. However, there were also gauges that had 10 to 15 inch rain surpluses over interior South Florida glades. With other locations varying between those extreme, but most of them closer to near normal.

Unfortunately, they no longer have this link up on the site, I probably could dig it out for you if I really tired, but I'm too busy with college, and personally I find college more important than trying to prove my point to you. Especially when I have plenty of other evidence such as the official drought index for Florida that I just posted.

If you insist that Florida is a dried desert, then ignore the massive amount of heavy rain that has fallen in many areas :)

As i said, I'm talking majority, not local.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well, those colors over the shaded regions should be averages, but they obviously aren't because the average long term rainfall is near normal or above in most of Central and South Florida. There are regions of drought in Central and South Florida due to convective activity occurring in some areas and avoiding a few other repeatedly this rain season. But the dry regions are far fewer than the wet ones. Which is why I can say the Palmer index is wrong. Many spots in Central and South Florida either don't need any rain to make up, or they actually have surpluses now. That being said, the surface area of wet and saturated grounds far outnumbers the dry ground that has a deficit as of what the map shows, therefore, the Palmer index does clearly have mathematical error. If it was accurate, they would take the surface area of drought X deficit and subtract it from the surface area of moist X surplus. the results should be more like this map, which is more accurate:




I think I rest my case on the drought issue, lol.


For one thing, I know there is a long term drought (to what degree is debatable), because many locations that are below normal in FL this year also closed out below normal last year. I know Melbourne was over 12" below normal last year, plus the nearly 12" below this year... gives us a long term deficit of 24", that is drought.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting Neapolitan:

Hey, Jed. That map Dr. Masters posted (Figure 2) accurately shows how how much precipitation would be needed to bring the long-term Palmer Drought Index up to -0.5. It's not necessarily saying that those regions highlighted with darker colors are parched, but rather that a lot of rain is needed to offset the long-term lack of precipitation they've received. Here in Naples, for instance--an area in the "9 to 12" (red) category--we are definitely below normal for the year. We've had some healthy rains recently, but the aquifer is being stressed by both that lack of rain and, as you said, an overabundance of people. IOW, I believe the map is a fair and honest indicator of how things are...


Well, those colors over the shaded regions should be averages, but they obviously aren't because the average long term rainfall is near normal or above in most of Central and South Florida. There are regions of drought in Central and South Florida due to convective activity occurring in some areas and avoiding a few other repeatedly this rain season. But the dry regions are far fewer than the wet ones. Which is why I can say the Palmer index is wrong. Many spots in Central and South Florida either don't need any rain to make up, or they actually have surpluses now. That being said, the surface area of wet and saturated grounds far outnumbers the dry ground that has a deficit as of what the map shows, therefore, the Palmer index does clearly have mathematical error. If it was accurate, they would take the surface area of drought X deficit and subtract it from the surface area of moist X surplus. the results should be more like this map, which is more accurate:




I think I rest my case on the drought issue, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HRinFM:
I live in Buckingham and have had 53 inches of rain this year. 5 days of over 4 inches. The front end is finally drying out


Buckingham/Lehigh area have had some nice rains when other areas missed out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Oh yes, the voice of Gene Deckerhoff! Unfortunately, because of the rules... blackouts have been a common thing, so the only way I could watch the Bucs is through the radio.

But it is going to be great weather in SF this weekend for a ball game! Sunny and 70s... absolutely perfect CA weather.


I've been keeping up with posts on FB by friends at the game. :-) Maybe, since the Bucs are doing so well, we'll have fewer blackouts. Let's hope so!! GO BUCS!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 299 - 249

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.