Major rains for Southeast U.S., TX, KS, and OK; Jova and Irwin a threat to Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on October 07, 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. I doubt that this storm will acquire enough organization to evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name, based on the latest model output, and the fact that the storm's center may well be over the state of Florida. This will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters along the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 30 - 40 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will not be able to intensify quickly.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 12, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 11 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Heavy rain event coming for drought-stricken regions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
A strong low pressure system is expected to track across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this weekend, bringing the heaviest rains of the year to drought-stricken portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas, including Abilene. Rainfall in this region has been 13 - 20 inches below normal for the year; Lubbock, Texas has had just 3 inches of rain this year, compared to a normal of 16 inches. Rainfall amount of 1 - 4 inches will be common in the region over the weekend, and may be able to reduce drought conditions from the highest level (exceptional) to the second highest level (extreme.) However, the heaviest rains will stay confined to the western half of Texas, and Texas's major cities such as Houston will see very little rain over the weekend. As of yesterday, Houston had gone 253 consecutive days without a one-inch rainstorm, a new record. The longest previous such streak was 192 days, set in 1917 - 1918. The last one inch rainstorm in the city was January 24, 2011. Remarkably, the local National Weather Service office has not issued any flood products in over a year.


Figure 2. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

Philippe being ripped up by wind shear
Hurricane Philippe, the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, doesn't have much time left as a hurricane, due to high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots that is starting to tear the storm apart. Satellite loops show Philippe has become lopsided and is now missing its eye. Philippe will continue to degrade in appearance over the next few days, and will die in the middle Atlantic without affecting any land areas.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Philippe over the mid-Atlantic taken at 10:45 am EDT October 6, 2011. At the time, Philippe was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jova and Irwin: double trouble for Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical storms spun up yesterday. The storm of greatest immediate concern is the one closest to the coast, Tropical Storm Jova. Jova is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of Jova, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. Jova is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing Jova to Category 1 strength. This is probably too conservative, and I expect Jova will be at least a Cat 2 at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be Jova's close proximity to Hurricane Irwin to its west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken Jova, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. The two storms are close enough to each other--about 650 miles apart--that they will affect each others' track, as well. Whenever two storms of at least tropical storm strength approach within 900 miles of each other, a phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect comes into play. This effect causes the two storms to rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Since the degree of rotation will depend on the relative strengths of the the two storms, and our ability to make good intensity forecasts is limited, the track forecasts for both Jova and Irwin will have a higher degree of uncertainty than usual. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Sunday night.

Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Hurricane Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect Jova. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a hurricane on the Mexican coast late next week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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349. Singer7
10:18 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:



An bunch of Shear for anything to develop. Things would have to change for anything Tropical to develop.


I believe the thinking is that this will develop as a sub-tropical system, which would develop under hi shear, as they feed off of jet streaks. That would also allow for a significant rain event, with strongest winds on the periphery. Then if the shear relaxed and a warm core developed, it could transition to a tropical system. JMO, what do you think?
Member Since: June 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
348. robert88
10:17 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Meh...pressures too high down there for tropical development. Maybe something formidable has a shot when the MJO gets stronger in the next couple of weeks.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
347. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:17 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
XX/AOI/XX
MARK
14.85N/69.23W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53587
345. washingtonian115
10:10 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Naw I'm in a pretty good mood, just the trolls that get aggravating, it's like when you go to write a paper and you make some nice valid points but in between is that mess called rambling and its not like you don't notice it, but have to do something about it to clean it up. That's how I equate this blog sometimes.
Just asking to make sure.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16890
344. TampaSpin
10:07 PM GMT on October 07, 2011



An bunch of Shear for anything to develop. Things would have to change for anything Tropical to develop.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
343. afj3
10:05 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:


MAYBE, the models are hinting at something possibly developing from something in the next few days. Its unclear where it comes from or if anything ever does develop. Models show a very weak system with some models putting a weak system on the Eastern side of Florida while others a weak system along the Western Side of Florida. Hard to say really if anything comes from anything. My guess it would be SubTropical at best anyways.

Thank you!
Member Since: June 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
342. GTcooliebai
10:03 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wow are you in a bad mood today?.Lol.I had a bad day but I decided that when I get on the blog I'll be positive and won't take my anger out on people who push me to the limit.So far that appears to be working...
Naw I'm in a pretty good mood, just the trolls that get aggravating, it's like when you go to write a paper and you make some nice valid points but in between is that mess called rambling and its not like you don't notice it, but have to do something about it to clean it up. That's how I equate this blog sometimes.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
341. washingtonian115
10:02 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I agree this is what makes forecasting fun...a system that is not even there yet, predicted by the models to develop, in times like this is best to sit back & watch how things evolve & use your own judgment like the good old days :) Not saying to discount the models just saying go with how you see the atmosphere behaving and compare it to the models to draw your own conclusions, this is probably what the NHC does at least this is what I would assume :)
Well with the MJO migrating over here in the next few days a few systems could develope between that time and for however long it sticks around.Remember October hurricanes can get very violent.October has had some of the Atlantic's strongest hurricanes in recorded history.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16890
340. BahaHurican
10:01 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Awesome and congrats! Wishing you many, many more!!! Same thing with my brother, come to think about it... rained the morning of his wedding, and has been married for 13... perhaps it is good luck then. Ahhh... you know, old wives' tales anyways, never can be relied upon.
I always thought rain on the wedding day was supposed to bring good luck... u know, "showers of blessings"....

LOL.... but what do I know....

Afternoon all.

Been too hectic all week for me to do more than glance at the blog.... and this weekend continues the hype....

We've gotten over 2 inches of rain here since 25th Sept... and looks like we're likely to pick up another inch or so this weekend, if the forecast pans out. Hope the FL folks who need the rain actually get it.... and the west TX news sounds good too.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21929
339. nrtiwlnvragn
9:59 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
UKMet Office


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 25.3N 80.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 09.10.2011 25.3N 80.9W WEAK

00UTC 10.10.2011 25.3N 80.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.10.2011 28.1N 79.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.10.2011 29.1N 81.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.10.2011 30.3N 80.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.10.2011 31.8N 79.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.10.2011 33.3N 77.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.10.2011 34.2N 80.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.10.2011 40.5N 85.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11104
338. swampliliy
9:58 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


You ever heard of sarcasm! That is what it is... just sarcasm. I know there is no evidence of it being in a "few years"... nor is there any evidence that it will ever happen. I was using that to illustrate a point.


You ever hear of manners?
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 7 Comments: 7290
337. GTcooliebai
9:58 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
I love to speculate.But if the scenario does play out I think it'll be more interesting than that mysterious storm that's suppose to be somewhere near Florida.
I agree this is what makes forecasting fun...a system that is not even there yet, predicted by the models to develop, in times like this is best to sit back & watch how things evolve & use your own judgment like the good old days :) Not saying to discount the models just saying go with how you see the atmosphere behaving and compare it to the models to draw your own conclusions, this is probably what the NHC does at least this is what I would assume :)
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
336. Jedkins01
9:58 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thanks for posting the discussion Jedkins, the ever evolving dynamics in the atmosphere is making for one tricky forecast. p.s if you're a troll don't quote me.


Yep! Once the forecast for the low becomes more confident, there will be a big increase in rain chances next week if the ECMWF pans out. Also, with upper low center carving out in the eastern gulf now, it will be interesting to see if the surface low develops in the gulf and aligns with upper low to become vertically stacked. I'm not saying that will happen but even if it becomes close to being vertically stacked we are talking some pretty strong dynamics combining with a big pressure gradient and high moisture. You know that means some serious rain would be the result.

Ultimately we know a wet period is arriving, but it could be less, or much wetter depending on what happens to the low development and where it goes.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7401
335. washingtonian115
9:56 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thanks for posting the discussion Jedkins, the ever evolving dynamics in the atmosphere is making for one tricky forecast. p.s if you're a troll don't quote me.
Wow are you in a bad mood today?.Lol.I had a bad day but I decided that when I get on the blog I'll be positive and won't take my anger out on people who push me to the limit.So far that appears to be working...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16890
334. TampaSpin
9:54 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting afj3:
Greetings all! I haven't been in here in ages (also notice some regulars have vanished). But anyway, what is that blob in the SE Caribbean? Anything to be worried about?


MAYBE, the models are hinting at something possibly developing from something in the next few days. Its unclear where it comes from or if anything ever does develop. Models show a very weak system with some models putting a weak system on the Eastern side of Florida while others a weak system along the Western Side of Florida. Hard to say really if anything comes from anything. My guess it would be SubTropical at best anyways.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
333. whepton3
9:54 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:
Too bad the blog does not register to show the Minus - times one is graded ......LOL.........JUST SAYN


Could be like figuring drought out...

Get behind, then you gain a little... red is a bad comment, green ones are good.

Saw the visible loop... the blob is trying to turn at 15N 68W... may not be anything, but it's good blog food.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
332. will40
9:54 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting CaribBoy:
I wish the E Carib blob to organize and bring us rain!


the MJO is headed your way just give it time
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4146
331. CaribBoy
9:53 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
I wish the E Carib blob to organize and bring us rain!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6164
330. GTcooliebai
9:52 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Thanks for posting the discussion Jedkins, the ever evolving dynamics in the atmosphere is making for one tricky forecast. p.s if you're a troll don't quote me.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
329. washingtonian115
9:52 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting will40:
the models are no good on a system that isnt even there. Main reason is they need a point of initiation which isnt there yet
I love to speculate.But if the scenario does play out I think it'll be more interesting than that mysterious storm that's suppose to be somewhere near Florida.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16890
328. whepton3
9:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Look at the heavy precip about to roll onto the FL coast.

Link


That's gonna be some serious bit'ness here in a little while.

It's going to get going tonight I think.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
327. Jedkins01
9:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
PWAT values are now 1.5 to 1.8 over Florida, this is mostly low level moisture with dry above, but deep layer moisture will increase into the weekend eventually leading to a more tropical air mass with moisture levels above 2 inches likely.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7401
326. TampaSpin
9:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Too bad the blog does not register to show the Minus - times one is graded ......LOL.........JUST SAYN
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
325. afj3
9:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Greetings all! I haven't been in here in ages (also notice some regulars have vanished). But anyway, what is that blob in the SE Caribbean? Anything to be worried about?
Member Since: June 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
324. will40
9:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
the models are no good on a system that isnt even there. Main reason is they need a point of initiation which isnt there yet
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4146
323. ecflweatherfan
9:46 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting Xyrus2000:


[citation needed]

There is not a single reputable climate scientist that makes any such claim, let alone having it occur within "a few years".






You ever heard of sarcasm! That is what it is... just sarcasm. I know there is no evidence of it being in a "few years"... nor is there any evidence that it will ever happen. I was using that to illustrate a point.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
322. GTcooliebai
9:46 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Take note in how I don't quote or feed the trolls. Bashing the NHC & the models for being wrong or saying you know more than them is complete & utter b/s & nonsense, don't degrade their credibility with your assumptions.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
321. Jedkins01
9:46 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
000
FXUS62 KTBW 071754
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
154 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST COMING
UP DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS DISAGREE
ON WHEN...WHERE...AND HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. THEY GO ON
TO DISAGREE FURTHER ON WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK. A TRACK TO THE
WEST OF THE PENINSULA WOULD FAVOR HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS...WHILE A
TRACK TO THE EAST WOULD RESULT IN LOWER RAIN AMOUNTS. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...PREFER THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z NAM
AND OUR LOCAL WRF. THESE MODELS ALL KEEP THE TROUGH AND ANY
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THE INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE
TROUGH WILL STILL MAKE FOR A RATHER CLOUDY AND WET WEEKEND.

OVERALL RAIN COVERAGE TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE LOW. SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING.

SHOWERS SHOULD ADVANCE QUICKLY INTO THE INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING
AND REACH THE COAST BEFORE NOON. HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO 60
PERCENT NEAR THE COAST AND 70 PERCENT INLAND.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. THE MAIN IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST...THAT COULD TURN
OUR LOW-LEVEL WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE THE SHEAR
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH WATERSPOUTS OFFSHORE AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO THREAT OVER LAND.

.LONG TERM
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE GFS REMAINS TOO FAR EAST WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...MOST LIKELY A HYBRID TYPE STORM
SYSTEM. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND
LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL ENHANCE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT DRY SLOT MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTER
WHICH COULD BE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE. POSSIBILITY FOR
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN BANDS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE BIG BEND AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WILL CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP CREATING A THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN DOUBT...ATTM IT APPEARS BEST
CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM...A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&



The weather service here agrees that the GFS depiction of an Atlantic system is not a trust worthy forecast.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7401
320. HuracanTaino
9:46 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting whepton3:


Could be a bang-bang thing.

N. of eastern Cuba first, then that blob at 14N 68W decides to crank.
The blob at 14N, 68W is "cranking", pretty fast, you can see sort of a rotation in the visible loop, just before night time approaches.
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 852
319. washingtonian115
9:43 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
.Big Mistake on my part.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16890
318. ecflweatherfan
9:43 PM GMT on October 07, 2011


Look at the heavy precip about to roll onto the FL coast.

Link
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
316. TampaSpin
9:43 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting whepton3:


Wait 'til they put a little yellow circle somewhere in the Caribbean.

Care to put your chips on the table?

Where is this low gonna form? I'm guessing just N. of eastern Cuba.


My guess is around Jamaica from the blob in the Eastern Caribbean. Looking at 850mb Vorticity, Convergence, and Divergence there is currently nothing looking ready to go. So the most logical area would be the area of most convection.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
315. Xyrus2000
9:42 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


...After all, according to scientists (and I do not believe this way), sea level is going to rise by 300 feet in a few years...


[citation needed]

There is not a single reputable climate scientist that makes any such claim, let alone having it occur within "a few years".




Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1474
313. whepton3
9:40 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting will40:



IMO there will be two systems . the first one on the east coast of Fla and the second one in the Caribbean


Could be a bang-bang thing.

N. of eastern Cuba first, then that blob at 14N 68W decides to crank.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
312. Jedkins01
9:39 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Tell you what, I would be ok with spending a few extra dollars a month on desalination plants along the coast that convert salt water to fresh multi-use water. After all, according to scientists (and I do not believe this way), sea level is going to rise by 300 feet in a few years. Might as well make some room for the influx of molten ice caps coming. No... cant do that because of the environmentalists will complain. But then again, they will complain if we don't conserve fresh water. So what do we do? Water restrictions are good, but it will NOT solve the long term issues. Only thing we can do is hope for rain.



Well, sea levels are rising due to warming, you won't see any drastic sea level rise in a life time, its a pretty slow process, lol. Other things in the future could cause sea level rise, but its not anything that can really be accurately predicted enough to designate it.

Look, yes there is a bunch of political junk out there, like far left extremists thinking the whole Earth will boil in 30 years if we don't make the government force everyone to change, and the you have the far right which doesn't care about anything and embraces wastefulness. Either way, its extremism, don't pay attention to it. What you should pay attention to is the scientists who spend their life trying to find the answers to these things and aren't focused on political agenda. They might tell you the sea level is rising, but not 300 ft in a few years.


Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7401
310. ecflweatherfan
9:38 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting sfladoom2011:



yes sure levi has been saying this was going to happen since sept 25...here we are going into mid october and you want to push it back another 10 days...if this keeps up it will be snowing in florida before this happens...what a joke..


I will believe Levi, before I believe some troll. He is VERY good with this stuff... he knows his stuff very well. And FYI, it has snowed in FL before (maybe not feet of it, but it has snowed). I saw it here in Central FL in January 2010, again in 2003... and I have pictures that show a canal here in central FL frozen over just last winter.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
309. TampaSpin
9:38 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting sfladoom2011:
all i can say the models this year have really took a major blood bath...they have been wrong 80% of the time...what a joke...


I would have to disagree. I believe the consensus of models has done very well this year. One cannot just look at one model but the overall models as a whole.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
308. whepton3
9:38 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like some Bloggers are causing problems today. .......NOTHING NEW!


Wait 'til they put a little yellow circle somewhere in the Caribbean.

Care to put your chips on the table?

Where is this low gonna form? I'm guessing just N. of eastern Cuba.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
307. washingtonian115
9:37 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
I'm more interested in the the long range forecast for a storm 10 days out then whatever is suppose to be happening by Florida this weekend.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16890
306. GTcooliebai
9:37 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
All I can say is the models this year have actually done a really good job, both on development and track. In addition, the NHC has done a particularly good job on every system with their cone of uncertainty and intensities.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
305. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:37 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Im old to.....lol
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5220
304. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:37 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting tampahurricane:
Ok, things must have changed. Last I heard there was a good chance it was going to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico?

Seems unlikely to me...Watch for development north of Cuba, or just east of Florida.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31913
302. will40
9:36 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting tampahurricane:
Ok, things must have changed. Last I heard there was a good chance it was going to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico?



IMO there will be two systems . the first one on the east coast of Fla and the second one in the Caribbean
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4146
301. 7544
9:36 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
well we now have our ull on the west side of fla thats the trigger to get the some action rolling
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6781
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Yeah, I know. In my lifetime I have heard sea level rise theories from a couple feet to 300. So, I do not believe their estimates.


Dont think i have ever heard 300ft i just a few years......JUST SAYN! Actually won't be 3ft in a few years!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Ok, things must have changed. Last I heard there was a good chance it was going to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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