Major rains for Southeast U.S., TX, KS, and OK; Jova and Irwin a threat to Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on October 07, 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. I doubt that this storm will acquire enough organization to evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name, based on the latest model output, and the fact that the storm's center may well be over the state of Florida. This will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters along the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 30 - 40 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will not be able to intensify quickly.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 12, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 11 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Heavy rain event coming for drought-stricken regions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
A strong low pressure system is expected to track across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this weekend, bringing the heaviest rains of the year to drought-stricken portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas, including Abilene. Rainfall in this region has been 13 - 20 inches below normal for the year; Lubbock, Texas has had just 3 inches of rain this year, compared to a normal of 16 inches. Rainfall amount of 1 - 4 inches will be common in the region over the weekend, and may be able to reduce drought conditions from the highest level (exceptional) to the second highest level (extreme.) However, the heaviest rains will stay confined to the western half of Texas, and Texas's major cities such as Houston will see very little rain over the weekend. As of yesterday, Houston had gone 253 consecutive days without a one-inch rainstorm, a new record. The longest previous such streak was 192 days, set in 1917 - 1918. The last one inch rainstorm in the city was January 24, 2011. Remarkably, the local National Weather Service office has not issued any flood products in over a year.


Figure 2. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

Philippe being ripped up by wind shear
Hurricane Philippe, the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, doesn't have much time left as a hurricane, due to high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots that is starting to tear the storm apart. Satellite loops show Philippe has become lopsided and is now missing its eye. Philippe will continue to degrade in appearance over the next few days, and will die in the middle Atlantic without affecting any land areas.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Philippe over the mid-Atlantic taken at 10:45 am EDT October 6, 2011. At the time, Philippe was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jova and Irwin: double trouble for Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical storms spun up yesterday. The storm of greatest immediate concern is the one closest to the coast, Tropical Storm Jova. Jova is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of Jova, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. Jova is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing Jova to Category 1 strength. This is probably too conservative, and I expect Jova will be at least a Cat 2 at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be Jova's close proximity to Hurricane Irwin to its west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken Jova, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. The two storms are close enough to each other--about 650 miles apart--that they will affect each others' track, as well. Whenever two storms of at least tropical storm strength approach within 900 miles of each other, a phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect comes into play. This effect causes the two storms to rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Since the degree of rotation will depend on the relative strengths of the the two storms, and our ability to make good intensity forecasts is limited, the track forecasts for both Jova and Irwin will have a higher degree of uncertainty than usual. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Sunday night.

Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Hurricane Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect Jova. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a hurricane on the Mexican coast late next week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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Dunno abt use gise, but it's usually pretty quiet in here on Friday nights.... I guess there r a bunch of teens and family pple who have date night or fambily meetings or some such .... I usually don't go out until late on Fridays, so I'm more likely 2 be here in the evenings....
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I randomly landed on this site during Irene and found an interest in severe weather and how you guys analyze it. With a lot of activity in the eastern pacific heading into mexico, is it possible for these systems to make it into the gulf of mexico and get stronger? Thanks in advance.
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@ indianrivguy:

I am so appreciative of the anecdotes you tell about your family's history and the history of our local area!
We live in such a transient State (I myself came here in from Cuba in 1962) that people fail to realize what a wonderful and rich history we have. I salute you and thank you for sharing with us!
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Quoting calkevin77:
Any chance Jova or Irwin's remnants could make way into Central TX and drop some rain? Grasping at straws but we'll take what we can get. Unlikely I know but even if 99 could setup like Hermine did last year and come our way that would be a great. It seems like every system that even comes near here either bounces off a high pressure ridge or turns to virga.


Hard to say. Sure would be nice to see you folks get some rain. Looks like the TX Panhandle is gonna get it... but the bigger cities DFW, San Antonio and Houston may not be so fortunate, yet. Hope some of that slides east to you as well.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting WoodyFL:


Im here. But everytime I post something I get yelled at. So I just sit back and watch everybody else get insulted.
I feel the same Woody. You forgot to mention that so many have each other on ignore,(I know) that there is no dialogue anymore. Sorta like parallel universes. :(
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

BE QUIET RIGHT NOW!!! NOBODY ASKED YOU!!!

lol, just kidding.


Now that I can take. lol Everybody used to be so nice here. Now it is just fighting. Isn't the world bad enough? We have a nice system to track so let's enjoy it.
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Quoting HIEXPRESS:



It's isentropic lift from Mt. Dora.


Darn Florida mountains... get in the way all the time. Those in Leesburg and Tavares are in the rain shadow, I suppose.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting WoodyFL:


Im here. But everytime I post something I get yelled at. So I just sit back and watch everybody else get insulted.

BE QUIET RIGHT NOW!!! NOBODY ASKED YOU!!!

lol, just kidding.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting Hurricane1956:
IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS BEEN A MEMBER OF THIS BLOG I HAS NEVER SEEN THIS BLOG SO SLOWWWWW!!!??,WHERE ARE ALL THE REGULARS? SPECIALLY WITH A POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT SO CLOSE TO FLORIDA!! A REAL MYSTERY??>


Im here. But everytime I post something I get yelled at. So I just sit back and watch everybody else get insulted.
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384. You called?
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Any chance Jova or Irwin's remnants could make way into Central TX and drop some rain? Grasping at straws but we'll take what we can get. Unlikely I know but even if 99 could setup like Hermine did last year and come our way that would be a great. It seems like every system that even comes near here either bounces off a high pressure ridge or turns to virga.
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@ indianrivguy

Not a boring story at all. I've lived here in Lake Worth since 1959. At least now we get warnings. 130 some years ago there were NO warnings.

Yeah, Wilma was one of worst ones I remember.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Ahh... ok. Which means it will be the inverse tonight. Storms rolling onshore, weakening as they move inland. You all had the diurnal heating today, whereas we had a nice strong wind off the ocean (kept it in the low-mid 80s, and off and on overcast)



It's isentropic lift from Mt. Dora.
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Up to 50% for 99E on 5 PM PDT TWO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
LITTLE.
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Quoting HIEXPRESS:
@ecflweatherfan - where the showers were diminishing in intensity as they came onshore before, that last one briefly popped up to 43k 30 miles inland over my house.

@ hydrus - you know I do ;) but I want to run 20 miles tomorrow. :(


Ahh... ok. Which means it will be the inverse tonight. Storms rolling onshore, weakening as they move inland. You all had the diurnal heating today, whereas we had a nice strong wind off the ocean (kept it in the low-mid 80s, and off and on overcast)
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting indianrivguy:
Things are slow so I thought I might bore some of you to tears.

138 years ago today, some of my ancestors, Hannibal, Margretta, and son Charles Pierce were on their way to go homestead on Lake Worth. Having just left service at Jupiter Light, Grandpa tried unsuccessfully to get his sloop through the sawgrass swamp for a week and decided to leave it at the Indian camping grounds on Lake Worth Creek (Barrows Island in Johnathon's Landing)and continue the trip in their twelve ft. tender "Fly". Up Lake Worth Creek and over the rapids into the sawgrass swamp, this was called the "Sawgrass Route" and was very difficult to traverse even if you knew the way. It ended at the "haulover" at the head of Lake Worth. During the mid 1870's with Jupiter inlet shut, this was the only way to and from Lake Worth.

Charles W. Pierce;
Preparations for the trip in the skiff were limited in the extreme. Mother took only a piece of fat pork, some tea, a little syrup, and a bottle of that good cognac. With this poor camping outfit we started out hunting our way as we went along and with food for only one meal. It was a very foolish piece of business, but we had no idea of what we were up against or the distance we had to travel.
Late in the afternoon we were still in the middle of the swamp with no prospect of reaching even a piece of high land before night. The sky was a dead black in all directions and it was spitting rain. We did not have coats or even a quilt or blanket to keep us warm and protect us from the thin but driving rain. We realized our situation was serious as night approached, for we then knew we were seeing our first Florida hurricane.
After pushing around for some time we found a gator trail leading toward high land to the east. This very narrow channel had been made by alligators going to land where on bright days they would sleep in the warm sun. The skiff was much wider than the largest gator and it took the hardest pushing to force her through the narrow trail. Once there, the gator crawl was not an encouraging prospect for a nights rest. It was only a very small spot and the ground was only an inch or two above the water and consequently very wet.
Father soon had cleared with his axe a place that was large enough for boat and campfire. A fire was started and mother cooked our supper of fat pork with syrup and a cup of tea. After this less than hearty meal father turned the boat up on edge away from the wind. Then he cut a lot of palmetto fans and spread them on the ground under the boat for a bed. Bad as the situation was, I was soon sound asleep, but there was no sleep for father and mother that night as the edge of the boat had to be held down in that howling wind. The eddy of the wind behind the palmettos keep lifting the boat off the ground and was in danger of it falling on them, so Mr. Pierce had to hold her down, all night.
About one o'clock in the morning the center of the hurricane passed over them when for a few minutes it was dead calm then it was heard coming with a roar from the southwest over the swamp. After the passing of the center of the storm, which must have been of small diameter, it moved rapidly on to the west and north. At daylight there was a wonderful change in the weather, the clouds had vanished, and a gentle wind was blowing from the northwest, cool and pleasant.



There is more but too much for here. The track was very similar to Wilma, just the width of the eye further north perhaps. An aside, like Wilma, it pulled down a cold front, but this one brought a frost to New Orleans, stopping a mosquito borne epidemic.



Yeah, Wilma was interesting... and quite fierce. Even for us here in Central Florida. It started off at 3am of low 80s... but by noon, it dropped into the low 60s and wind gusts to 90 mph. We had 13" of rain due to the convergence of Wilma and the cold front. That night, it dropped into the low 50s. I had never seen anything like that before, since it was a hurricane/cold front. Sorry, no other way to describe that.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
@ecflweatherfan - where the showers were diminishing in intensity as they came onshore before, that last one briefly popped up to 43k 30 miles inland over my house.

@ hydrus - you know I do ;) but I want to run 20 miles tomorrow. :(
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Quoting hydrus:
Hope ya like,em. It appears they are lining up for a 2 or 3 day visit.


I think we should call it some sort of name... you know how storms line up in the PAC-NW... they call it the "Pineapple Express"... I say we call ours the "Coconut Express". Seems as if it is going to shape up to be like a "Pineapple Express" with all the moisture.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Things are slow so I thought I might bore some of you to tears.

138 years ago today, some of my ancestors, Hannibal, Margretta, and son Charles Pierce were on their way to go homestead on Lake Worth. Having just left service at Jupiter Light, Grandpa tried unsuccessfully to get his sloop through the sawgrass swamp for a week and decided to leave it at the Indian camping grounds on Lake Worth Creek (Barrows Island in Johnathon's Landing)and continue the trip in their twelve ft. tender "Fly". Up Lake Worth Creek and over the rapids into the sawgrass swamp, this was called the "Sawgrass Route" and was very difficult to traverse even if you knew the way. It ended at the "haulover" at the head of Lake Worth. During the mid 1870's with Jupiter inlet shut, this was the only way to and from Lake Worth.

Charles W. Pierce;
Preparations for the trip in the skiff were limited in the extreme. Mother took only a piece of fat pork, some tea, a little syrup, and a bottle of that good cognac. With this poor camping outfit we started out hunting our way as we went along and with food for only one meal. It was a very foolish piece of business, but we had no idea of what we were up against or the distance we had to travel.
Late in the afternoon we were still in the middle of the swamp with no prospect of reaching even a piece of high land before night. The sky was a dead black in all directions and it was spitting rain. We did not have coats or even a quilt or blanket to keep us warm and protect us from the thin but driving rain. We realized our situation was serious as night approached, for we then knew we were seeing our first Florida hurricane.
After pushing around for some time we found a gator trail leading toward high land to the east. This very narrow channel had been made by alligators going to land where on bright days they would sleep in the warm sun. The skiff was much wider than the largest gator and it took the hardest pushing to force her through the narrow trail. Once there, the gator crawl was not an encouraging prospect for a nights rest. It was only a very small spot and the ground was only an inch or two above the water and consequently very wet.
Father soon had cleared with his axe a place that was large enough for boat and campfire. A fire was started and mother cooked our supper of fat pork with syrup and a cup of tea. After this less than hearty meal father turned the boat up on edge away from the wind. Then he cut a lot of palmetto fans and spread them on the ground under the boat for a bed. Bad as the situation was, I was soon sound asleep, but there was no sleep for father and mother that night as the edge of the boat had to be held down in that howling wind. The eddy of the wind behind the palmettos keep lifting the boat off the ground and was in danger of it falling on them, so Mr. Pierce had to hold her down, all night.
About one o'clock in the morning the center of the hurricane passed over them when for a few minutes it was dead calm then it was heard coming with a roar from the southwest over the swamp. After the passing of the center of the storm, which must have been of small diameter, it moved rapidly on to the west and north. At daylight there was a wonderful change in the weather, the clouds had vanished, and a gentle wind was blowing from the northwest, cool and pleasant.



There is more but too much for here. The track was very similar to Wilma, just the width of the eye further north perhaps. An aside, like Wilma, it pulled down a cold front, but this one brought a frost to New Orleans, stopping a mosquito borne epidemic.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


[citation needed]

There is not a single reputable climate scientist that makes any such claim, let alone having it occur within "a few years".






"...Now, if the sea level rises 35 inches, the houses along Malibu will definitely be something of the past," said JPL climatologist Bill Patzert.

Scientists associate two major factors with the accelerated rate of sea level rise. One, the warming of our oceans -- heat causes water to expand. And two, the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.

Greenland's largest glacier is melting twice as fast today as it was five years ago. The ice this one glacier dumps out in just one day holds as much water as New York City uses in a year.

"Most of the fresh water in the world is stored in Antarctica and Greenland. If all that ice melted, sea level would rise more than 300 feet across the planet, and Staples Center would definitely be underwater," said Patzert.

Taken from here: Link

And another prediction here: Link

"...According to marine geophysicist Robin Bell of Columbia University’s Earth Institute, sea levels rise by about 1/16” for every 150 cubic miles of ice that melts off one of the poles.

“That may not sound like a lot, but consider the volume of ice now locked up in the planet’s three greatest ice sheets,” she writes in a recent issue of Scientific American. “If the West Antarctic ice sheet were to disappear, sea level would rise almost 19 feet; the ice in the Greenland ice sheet could add 24 feet to that; and the East Antarctic ice sheet could add yet another 170 feet to the level of the world’s oceans: more than 213 feet in all.” Bell underscores the severity of the situation by pointing out that the 150-foot tall Statue of Liberty could be completely submerged within a matter of decades..."

So far, that's one from JPL, one from Columbia, and an article from SciAmer.

Anywhere from 213-300 ft.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
alright thanks any predictions on the changes or u think the same as the 5pm?

Not sure, may go up with intensity.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We won't know until 8-8:30 PM EDT when ATCF updates.
alright thanks any predictions on the changes or u think the same as the 5pm?
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
any change on jova and irwin?

We won't know until 8-8:30 PM EDT when ATCF updates.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
any change on jova and irwin?
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Quoting HIEXPRESS:
Each cumulonimbi coming onshore over E.Central Fl gets taller and taller. Now I've got CG lightning a couple per minute, but the storms are moving fast (which means they sneak up on you fast too.).
Hope ya like,em. It appears they are lining up for a 2 or 3 day visit.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21407
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
Each cumulonimbi coming onshore over E.Central Fl gets taller and taller. Now I've got CG lightning a couple per minute, but the storms are moving fast (which means they sneak up on you fast too.).


And they are only going to get taller as nocturnal instability over the warm water increases. Most of the rain is to my SE, from basically Fort Pierce and NE from there. I imagine I will get in on some of that in the next few hours. I hope.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Checking in.. lots going on weather and blog-wise (or unwise for that matter) Caribbean is poppin', FL is wet and wild and all the E Pac storms heading into mexico.. gonna be VERY interesting next week. I think I'd better go get some more troll repellant though.. Have a great weekend all!
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Each cumulonimbi coming onshore over E.Central Fl gets taller and taller. Now I've got CG lightning a couple per minute, but the storms are moving fast (which means they sneak up on you fast too.).
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*Click to open the image in a new window. Images can be further magnified there.*
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Quoting BahaHurican:
@ ecfl... I'm sitting right under it... more or less... it's definitely warm enough for warm core. I mentioned the stalled part because if they sit long enough these features sometimes "warm up" enough to produce a warm core system.

But we shall see....


Right on... have seen that before too. Which I know early in the week, our mets at the NWS Melbourne were questioning whether it would be tropical or subtropical... and it was hingent upon where it formed and how long it sat there. Note: the models have not been in a real hurry to pull it northward, so it is really anyones guess.

What are your temps/dewpoints there? My temp is 81, dewpoint 70 right now... and waters are still around 80, even with the front clearing earlier this week and temps in the 60s at night.
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Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
All right BOYS & GIRLS.........tonite is the first nite of NHL.....GO BOLTS! I am out for now. Almost game time. It will be interesting to see the next cycle of Model runs. This might tell us a clue tonite.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting Ameister12:
Philippe still managing to fire convection. He's always been a fighter.


Amazing in the face of a highly sheared environment.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
@ ecfl... I'm sitting right under it... more or less... it's definitely warm enough for warm core. I mentioned the stalled part because if they sit long enough these features sometimes "warm up" enough to produce a warm core system.

But we shall see....
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Philippe still managing to fire convection in 40-50 knot wind shear. He's always been a fighter.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
It's still warm enough here for warm-core cyclogenesis.... and isn't this coming off a stalled out trough???


The upper low (cold core), I thought, was supposed to be the responsible party for inducing the cyclogenesis. I was thinking that was why they were saying it was going to be hybrid... plus, it is along a baroclinic zone, as opposed to a full on tropical environment.

But on the other hand, I have noticed that dewpoints in my area have climbed to around 70 degrees which is tropical. And I am a couple hundred miles away from where this is supposed to spin up.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Good Evening.
Philippe looks horrible again.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
It's still warm enough here for warm-core cyclogenesis.... and isn't this coming off a stalled out trough???

Yeah..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting FrankZapper:
Oh Rina, where art thou?
Hey, u can call her if u like; just don't invite her to MY house....

lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Interestingly enough, the GFS starts the low off warm core and transitions it into a cold core system.

It's still warm enough here for warm-core cyclogenesis.... and isn't this coming off a stalled out trough???
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Oh Rina, where art thou?
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Quoting TampaSpin:




LMAO
Good example of hyperbole.... 300 feet... lol

Quoting TampaSpin:



An bunch of Shear for anything to develop. Things would have to change for anything Tropical to develop.
We're getting to the point where just about anything that makes it tropically will have to do it in the CAR.... too much shear in either the open ATL or the GoM for serious development.

Makes 4 more interesting forecasting, IMO.... and I can see the possibility, with the setup as is, of at least potentially a Michelle 2001 / Paloma 2008 type deal on the OCT / NOV boundary.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


MAYBE, the models are hinting at something possibly developing from something in the next few days. Its unclear where it comes from or if anything ever does develop. Models show a very weak system with some models putting a weak system on the Eastern side of Florida while others a weak system along the Western Side of Florida. Hard to say really if anything comes from anything. My guess it would be SubTropical at best anyways.
Quoting Singer7:


I believe the thinking is that this will develop as a sub-tropical system, which would develop under hi shear, as they feed off of jet streaks. That would also allow for a significant rain event, with strongest winds on the periphery. Then if the shear relaxed and a warm core developed, it could transition to a tropical system. JMO, what do you think?



Yep i said the same as above.....seems likely to be a SubTropical system IF something was to develop.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Interestingly enough, the GFS starts the low off warm core and transitions it into a cold core system.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting Singer7:


I believe the thinking is that this will develop as a sub-tropical system, which would develop under hi shear, as they feed off of jet streaks. That would also allow for a significant rain event, with strongest winds on the periphery. Then if the shear relaxed and a warm core developed, it could transition to a tropical system. JMO, what do you think?
I believe you thinking is spot on. If it does not interact with land, and the shear relaxed, it would have a shot at warm core.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21407
Quoting Singer7:


I believe the thinking is that this will develop as a sub-tropical system, which would develop under hi shear, as they feed off of jet streaks. That would also allow for a significant rain event, with strongest winds on the periphery. Then if the shear relaxed and a warm core developed, it could transition to a tropical system. JMO, what do you think?


^

What he said.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Evening all someone posted this earlier loooking rougher now some good swell :)
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Quoting TampaSpin:



An bunch of Shear for anything to develop. Things would have to change for anything Tropical to develop.


I believe the thinking is that this will develop as a sub-tropical system, which would develop under hi shear, as they feed off of jet streaks. That would also allow for a significant rain event, with strongest winds on the periphery. Then if the shear relaxed and a warm core developed, it could transition to a tropical system. JMO, what do you think?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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