Major rains for Southeast U.S., TX, KS, and OK; Jova and Irwin a threat to Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on October 07, 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. I doubt that this storm will acquire enough organization to evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name, based on the latest model output, and the fact that the storm's center may well be over the state of Florida. This will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters along the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 30 - 40 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will not be able to intensify quickly.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 12, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 11 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Heavy rain event coming for drought-stricken regions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
A strong low pressure system is expected to track across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this weekend, bringing the heaviest rains of the year to drought-stricken portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas, including Abilene. Rainfall in this region has been 13 - 20 inches below normal for the year; Lubbock, Texas has had just 3 inches of rain this year, compared to a normal of 16 inches. Rainfall amount of 1 - 4 inches will be common in the region over the weekend, and may be able to reduce drought conditions from the highest level (exceptional) to the second highest level (extreme.) However, the heaviest rains will stay confined to the western half of Texas, and Texas's major cities such as Houston will see very little rain over the weekend. As of yesterday, Houston had gone 253 consecutive days without a one-inch rainstorm, a new record. The longest previous such streak was 192 days, set in 1917 - 1918. The last one inch rainstorm in the city was January 24, 2011. Remarkably, the local National Weather Service office has not issued any flood products in over a year.


Figure 2. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

Philippe being ripped up by wind shear
Hurricane Philippe, the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, doesn't have much time left as a hurricane, due to high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots that is starting to tear the storm apart. Satellite loops show Philippe has become lopsided and is now missing its eye. Philippe will continue to degrade in appearance over the next few days, and will die in the middle Atlantic without affecting any land areas.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Philippe over the mid-Atlantic taken at 10:45 am EDT October 6, 2011. At the time, Philippe was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jova and Irwin: double trouble for Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical storms spun up yesterday. The storm of greatest immediate concern is the one closest to the coast, Tropical Storm Jova. Jova is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of Jova, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. Jova is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing Jova to Category 1 strength. This is probably too conservative, and I expect Jova will be at least a Cat 2 at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be Jova's close proximity to Hurricane Irwin to its west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken Jova, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. The two storms are close enough to each other--about 650 miles apart--that they will affect each others' track, as well. Whenever two storms of at least tropical storm strength approach within 900 miles of each other, a phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect comes into play. This effect causes the two storms to rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Since the degree of rotation will depend on the relative strengths of the the two storms, and our ability to make good intensity forecasts is limited, the track forecasts for both Jova and Irwin will have a higher degree of uncertainty than usual. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Sunday night.

Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Hurricane Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect Jova. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a hurricane on the Mexican coast late next week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TomTaylor:
lol It's definitely not definite.

It's a bad idea to speak in absolutes in weather forecasts...




We still have a solid month left of the season under what is forecasted to be one of the strongest MJO pulses of the year, I wouldn't say that.

Definitely not definite? O_o
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Is anyone able to identify the hurricane in this picture that my marching band is using on their shirts this year??

I was thinking along the lines of hurricane Vince.. the banding and the eye proportions resemble it, but it looks more intense. any ideas or other possibilities?
Vince:
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Quoting Darryl7:
The beaches have been there for near a million years. Why does this keep getting said? Junk science.


And where there has been beaches for millions of years, there has been beach erosion for millions of years.

Material erodes from one location and may accumulate in another. Even if the amount of beach is roughly the same before/after, if material has been moved or the shape changed, erosion has occurred.
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HI
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Winds picking up from the east in Tampa. Hope it doesnt ruin my day at Hawl O Screem tomorrow night....
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Quoting TomTaylor:
lol It's definitely not definite.

It's a bad idea to speak in absolutes in weather forecasts...




We still have a solid month left of the season under what is forecasted to be one of the strongest MJO pulses of the year, I wouldn't say that.

Did you go through yesterday's blog entry just for that? XD
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
18.85N/75.23W
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
We have had over 4 inches of rain in Port St. Lucie in the last 24 hours and over 5 inches in Fort Pierce. Rain has slowed for now, but in looking at the radar, we are going to get slammed later. It will be interesting to see what tonight and tomorrow brings.


Cutoff is 10 inches... gotta share the wealth with the rest of us! Don't be hogging it all down there now. :-)
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its definite that a Subtropical low will form over the weekend. It is not definite whether or not it strengthens into a Subtropical storm.

Regardless, the effects will be the same.
lol It's definitely not definite.

It's a bad idea to speak in absolutes in weather forecasts...


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Here comes the Eastern Pacific's final storm of the season.

The basin will finish below average...again...

The Atlantic will finish hyperactive...again...


We still have a solid month left of the season under what is forecasted to be one of the strongest MJO pulses of the year, I wouldn't say that.
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XX/AOI/XX
MARK
14.85N/69.23W
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Wow! didnt think texas would see this for another 20 years...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN OKLAHOMA...BEAVER AND
TEXAS. IN TEXAS...ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON.. .LIPSCOMB...
MOORE...OCHILTREE...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...S HERMAN AND
WHEELER.

* FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT.
STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WHERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED AREAS MAY RECEIVE 3
TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL BENEATH THE STRONGER STORMS.

* HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS CAUSING SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS. IN MORE DEVELOPED
AREAS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY FLOOD STREETS...INTERSECTIONS AND
UNDERPASSES. LOW LYING AREAS AND ADJACENT STRUCTURES WILL BE PRONE
TO FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 877
Quoting Speeky:
do you think the Tropical Storm that could hit Florda could also run up the east coast?


The CMC model seems to take the strongest position on a Carolina storm and it uses a different vortex than the Florida one which dissipates in the GOM.
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It looks like the trof is digging a bit more west off the west coast of florida,this maight imply low formation further west of gfs forecast perhaps near central n cuba/florida straits?? anyone?
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Link to radar loops out of Cuba... not much doing there either.



Link
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
good evening everyone.

Bonsoir.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
7.85N/41.23W
Goodnight KOG. Do you think there is any chance something could form in that area ? There has been persistent convection there all day.
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Here is WPB blustery and a couple drops at best. Bring it!!
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good evening everyone.
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 877
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From the 2nd map, we are in the 12-15" rain range; curiously the name of the forecaster on the 1st map is Flood - another example of name guiding a person's profession
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We have had over 4 inches of rain in Port St. Lucie in the last 24 hours and over 5 inches in Fort Pierce. Rain has slowed for now, but in looking at the radar, we are going to get slammed later. It will be interesting to see what tonight and tomorrow brings.
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I'm in Boca, about 7MI back from the coast, and got my first rain of the day about half an hour ago.

I'm sure it won't be the last or the biggest this weekend.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
7.85N/41.23W
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Quoting WoodyFL:


I think I had her 5th grade. Never did like her much.


You aren't from Sebastian are you??
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do you think the Tropical Storm that could hit Florda could also run up the east coast?
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Quoting WoodyFL:


We have black olive and mahogany trees all around the house, too close I think. Wilma took out two of them.

ouch.
I don't think we'll see gusts stronger than 40 mph here. Maybe some branches but who knows...
It's certainly interesting but it's such a large area, may have trouble consolidating into a potent force.
I think our biggest problem will be (and is) beach erosion.
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Quoting Chicklit:

Yeah, I'm in New Smyrna Beach.
60-ft. high on a dune.
Love hearing the wind in the oaks.
So much it keeps me awake at night with the windows open.
I think this is going to be a cool weekend.
No hurricane, just a lot of rain and some pretty gusty winds.
One of my neighbors, a surveyor and long-time Floridian had the local tree-cutting-guy out this week. He knows what's going on.
We are nestled in an oak canopy on the beachside.
Far enough from the ocean for that not to affect anything. I think he overdid the tree thing, but who am I to say, it's his house.


We have black olive and mahogany trees all around the house, too close I think. Wilma took out two of them.
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Some decent 850mb vorticity around 20N 78-80W... broad, but looks like this could be the region of formation... imo
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting hurricaneben:


Oh my...are you in Boca? Because I'm a few miles from Pompano and I live in Boca.


We are in Las Olas Isles. That is in Ft lauderdale not far from you. Bad lightning here now, really bad.
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Canadians, gfs & ngp all hinting at a little TS making its way up GA/SC/NC at 100+ hours as the MJO phases in.
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LinkLoop



Looks like you're about to get your wish, Skye.
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459. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting DiddyVort:
Dominica?
Sheesh Pony...here's the vorticity charts:


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.ph p?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=wvir&zoom =&time



I had a horrible geography teacher in public school. Never really got it til college. Had this friend from Dominica that for years I thought he was from Dominican Republic.. You got to pay for sober pony weather service especially on a Fri night;)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 37852
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


About 150 miles north on the Space Coast... overcast, scattered showers in the vicinity, 78F, winds ENE 18, gusts 27 right now. Expecting 4-8" of rain, totals could reach 10" in spots. Flood Watch in effect, Heavy Surf Advisory in effect.

Ok i'll bite zephyrhills fl. ne of Tampa. I have rain showers windy up high above the ground. 69.3 temp 9.7mph and had .17 in the rain guage.
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Quoting DiddyVort:
It's blowing a gale and freakin drowning the gators here in Martin County!



Ditto in Port St. Lucie. RAIN! And more on the radar. Ponds and canals are filling up and more rain scheduled for tomorrow and Sunday. Gonna have some serious flooding before this is over. My neighborhood is usually high and dry, there are several neighborhoods in St. Lucie County and Fort Pierce that flood with any substantial amount of rain. Wishing all of you to stay safe over the next couple of days.
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things are starting to crank up down south
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
by the end of the event some areas could see ten to fourteen inches in localize isolated spots where trailing rains remain for duration of the event

THIS IS A HIGH IMPACTING LOCALIZE EVENT UNFOLDING

I do not think a single Texan will complain about too much rain. Not after the summer they've had.
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454. Skyepony (Mod)
Mitch's center never touched Pacific waters so that didn't count.. amazing though.



Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

South of Dominica? I think you mean the Dominican Republic. ;)



I do.. Thanks.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 37852
Quoting Chicklit:


Yay! Bring it on.
by the end of the event some areas could see ten to fourteen inches in localize isolated spots where trailing rains remain for duration of the event

THIS IS A HIGH IMPACTING LOCALIZE EVENT UNFOLDING
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Hey now... where is the Polite Police when you need him/her??? Or as so affectionately known by me as the Manners Police?

jk. lol

mmmmmm, I love this blog.
I love this blog.
Its my kind of place.
All the people chattin'
Puts a big smile on my face.
No member charge.
No joiner fees.
mmmhmmm, I love this blog.
(Sing to the tune of "I love this bar")


ROFL Toby Keith! Now I'm listening to Maroon 5's Move Like Jagger.
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Quoting WoodyFL:


Are u in fl? I am on the coast in Las Olas Isles. It is really getting nasty. You can here the wind very high up. It is getting unstable atmosphere. So i guess something wants to form.

Yeah, I'm in New Smyrna Beach.
60-ft. high on a dune.
Love hearing the wind in the oaks.
So much it keeps me awake at night with the windows open.
I think this is going to be a cool weekend.
No hurricane, just a lot of rain and some pretty gusty winds.
One of my neighbors, a surveyor and long-time Floridian had the local tree-cutting-guy out this week. He knows what's going on.
We are nestled in an oak canopy on the beachside.
Far enough from the ocean for that not to affect anything. I think he overdid the tree thing, but who am I to say, it's his house.
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Quoting WoodyFL:


Just a few miles north from here. and i didn't bring in the garbage cans like my wife said. I'm gonna hear it now.


Oh my...are you in Boca? Because I'm a few miles from Pompano and I live in Boca.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.