Major rains for Southeast U.S., TX, KS, and OK; Jova and Irwin a threat to Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on October 07, 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. I doubt that this storm will acquire enough organization to evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name, based on the latest model output, and the fact that the storm's center may well be over the state of Florida. This will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters along the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 30 - 40 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will not be able to intensify quickly.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 12, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 11 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Heavy rain event coming for drought-stricken regions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
A strong low pressure system is expected to track across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this weekend, bringing the heaviest rains of the year to drought-stricken portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas, including Abilene. Rainfall in this region has been 13 - 20 inches below normal for the year; Lubbock, Texas has had just 3 inches of rain this year, compared to a normal of 16 inches. Rainfall amount of 1 - 4 inches will be common in the region over the weekend, and may be able to reduce drought conditions from the highest level (exceptional) to the second highest level (extreme.) However, the heaviest rains will stay confined to the western half of Texas, and Texas's major cities such as Houston will see very little rain over the weekend. As of yesterday, Houston had gone 253 consecutive days without a one-inch rainstorm, a new record. The longest previous such streak was 192 days, set in 1917 - 1918. The last one inch rainstorm in the city was January 24, 2011. Remarkably, the local National Weather Service office has not issued any flood products in over a year.


Figure 2. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

Philippe being ripped up by wind shear
Hurricane Philippe, the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, doesn't have much time left as a hurricane, due to high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots that is starting to tear the storm apart. Satellite loops show Philippe has become lopsided and is now missing its eye. Philippe will continue to degrade in appearance over the next few days, and will die in the middle Atlantic without affecting any land areas.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Philippe over the mid-Atlantic taken at 10:45 am EDT October 6, 2011. At the time, Philippe was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jova and Irwin: double trouble for Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical storms spun up yesterday. The storm of greatest immediate concern is the one closest to the coast, Tropical Storm Jova. Jova is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of Jova, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. Jova is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing Jova to Category 1 strength. This is probably too conservative, and I expect Jova will be at least a Cat 2 at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be Jova's close proximity to Hurricane Irwin to its west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken Jova, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. The two storms are close enough to each other--about 650 miles apart--that they will affect each others' track, as well. Whenever two storms of at least tropical storm strength approach within 900 miles of each other, a phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect comes into play. This effect causes the two storms to rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Since the degree of rotation will depend on the relative strengths of the the two storms, and our ability to make good intensity forecasts is limited, the track forecasts for both Jova and Irwin will have a higher degree of uncertainty than usual. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Sunday night.

Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Hurricane Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect Jova. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a hurricane on the Mexican coast late next week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Skyepony:
Nice cloudy day, low 80s, wind died down. Getting the occasional fleeting downpour, only 0.12" so far. Coastal East Central FL flood chance is up to orange.

MJO is pulling in, ~3/4 the models including our better performers this year keep it here a while & strengthen it considerably. Mid Month maybe peak.




I'm still concerned Columbia & northern South America is going to take the brunt in overall rainfall.

Back closer the home the seed trof that should create the blob & bring rain is over Hispaniola at the moment.. the whole area, even out to the Gulf of Mexico is scattered with little bits of vorticity, feeding on moisture, hot waters & the wind from the east. Notice on rainbow the strongest one is shooting down the trof to South America. The bulk of the trof is expected to begin to blob up over Southern Bahamas. Models are split between a blob that spins up into a storm over East Central FL then rides up the east coast or multi vorticity blob the first crosses FL, with another on a tail that slings up the east coast. Notice all models have backed off a few days on when. So I want to lean a little west.

We can feel the MJO's lift here in Austin. It hasn't been humid in a year here, and now it is.

May the de-mummification begin.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3202
e cen fl. blustery 1/8 inch of rain so far a mile away 1and 1/2 inches might get another rd this evening
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97. Skyepony (Mod)
Hard to watch Philippe get sheared. He was looking alright lastnight. Peaked with a Uniform CDO and a T# of 4.3.


Value of eggs seems like a flawed way to compare money worth.. today's eggs are subsidized. And a dozen of the same eggs you bought in 1909..from chickens fed round up pesticide free feed (none GMO) with plenty of free-range time is $4.00 a dozen.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37489
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

were talking about the value of money...


example:

in 1909 (starting point)

average wage was $0.22 per hour
one dozen eggs was .14 cents
that meant one would have to work .64 hours(rounded) to buy one dozen eggs

2011 MINIMUM wage is like $7.75 (or close there of)
one dozen eggs is now $1.49
now one works .14(rounded) hours to buy the same eggs

since more can be bought with the same dollar...the value of money increased
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95. wpb
Quoting cyclonekid:


Good afternoon!! Commented on your video. Is it possible that the remnants of Hurricane Irwin contribute to the tropical development in the Caribbean around the Day 10 area?
thanks
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Good morning!!!! just wondering why??,this blog is so SLOW!!!! lately?,specially with a big weather event coming to South Florida and the Eastern States in the next few days,this blog used to be very active!!

==============================================

I suspect it's because a lot of us are not sure there really is any big weather event developing for Florida or the East Coast. All we have is models, and the sensible weather is not in agreement with the models right now.
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93. Skyepony (Mod)
Nice cloudy day, low 80s, wind died down. Getting the occasional fleeting downpour, only 0.12" so far. Coastal East Central FL flood chance is up to orange.

MJO is pulling in, ~3/4 the models including our better performers this year keep it here a while & strengthen it considerably. Mid Month maybe peak.




I'm still concerned Columbia & northern South America is going to take the brunt in overall rainfall.

Back closer the home the seed trof that should create the blob & bring rain is over Hispaniola at the moment.. the whole area, even out to the Gulf of Mexico is scattered with little bits of vorticity, feeding on moisture, hot waters & the wind from the east. Notice on rainbow the strongest one is shooting down the trof to South America. The bulk of the trof is expected to begin to blob up over Southern Bahamas. Models are split between a blob that spins up into a storm over East Central FL then rides up the east coast or multi vorticity blob the first crosses FL, with another on a tail that slings up the east coast. Notice all models have backed off a few days on when. So I want to lean a little west.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37489
Quoting 90. sar2401:


That's just what Dr. Masters posted. Are you parrot mood today? :)
Maybe he's pining for the fjords?
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Quoting sar2401:


That's just what Dr. Masters posted. Are you parrot mood today? :)

XD

No.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31590
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Philippe is currently experiencing 40-50 knots of wind shear. The low-level center is exposed, and the storm wonn't last much longer. Expect a TS at 5PM.



That's just what Dr. Masters posted. Are you parrot mood today? :)
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

meanwhile, the spc has increased the risk of tornadoes from the panhandle of texas northward...
That's no bueno.
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

were talking about the value of money...


yes...i understand that...the value of money follows the trends of the economy...that is microeconomics... you would take the base pay of someone from the starting point and compare it to the cost of a particular item (ie a house) then do the same formula for the current point of time...being base pay vs the same item cost...those two numbers will tell you if the value of the dollar has gone up or down...
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Levi,

hello. good morning. I know and suppose this is a very premature and most likely dumb question given the prospects (even though they are appearing more likely now) of caribbean trouble in approx 8-10 days are rising but I am going overseas on October 20.

At the risk of me sounding stupid by asking something when a system has not even formed yet should I be concerned given I live in the western part of Florida?
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Quoting jonelu:
Looks like the 2 areas of the US that need rain the most are going to get some! Ya for TX and FL!


Yeah... actually GA and SC also need it too! So this will be welcome news to these folks as well. That HPC forecast precip paints 11.1" right in my area this weekend. We will gladly take any rain we can get here in FL from Oct-May (dry season months)
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Philippe is currently experiencing 40-50 knots of wind shear. The low-level center is exposed, and the storm wonn't last much longer. Expect a TS at 5PM.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31590
Quoting tiggeriffic:


it would go up...not down...just like the prices of things...a home use to sell for $25,000 and now the same size home in a similar neighborhood sells for over $200,000...billions dont go down to millions...

were talking about the value of money...
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Good morning!!!! just wondering why??,this blog is so SLOW!!!! lately?,specially with a big weather event coming to South Florida and the Eastern States in the next few days,this blog used to be very active!!!!.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Is it $300 million or $1.79 trillion? O_o


it would go up...not down...just like the prices of things...a home use to sell for $25,000 and now the same size home in a similar neighborhood sells for over $200,000...billions dont go down to millions...
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XX/AOI/XX
MARK
14.85N/69.23W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Interesting to nOte is how convection is on the increase south of andros island
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meanwhile, the spc has increased the risk of tornadoes from the panhandle of texas northward...
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, October 7th, with Video


Good afternoon!! Commented on your video. Is it possible that the remnants of Hurricane Irwin contribute to the tropical development in the Caribbean around the Day 10 area?
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Quoting jonelu:
Looks like the 2 areas of the US that need rain the most are going to get some! Ya for TX and FL!


It will be interesting to see if we get 11" along the SEFL coast. A little shy of the 12-15" need to bust the drought however, a welcome bump before dry season sets in. Glad to see the SW FINALLY chipping away at the drought.



Afternoon All.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5055

15z surface analysis just released..
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Looks like the 2 areas of the US that need rain the most are going to get some! Ya for TX and FL!
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, October 7th, with Video

morning levi, right now were discussing the heavy rainfall expected in texas...
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Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, October 7th, with Video
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Since i have had a trace since June 22 and my last several rainfalls have been a trace, I hope I get more than that but it looks like the decent rains stay in Northwest Texas and the Central part of the state and eastward get little to no rain according to the latest models. It is also hot and humid here with temps remaining in the 90s thru next week, the temps may drop near 90 with a front in about a week but still way above normal for south central Texas. I think there will be scattered showers around and a few people in the central parts of the state may get lucky. Looks like a possible flood in northwest texas, lucky people.
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Zone Forecast: Tarrant County Mobile Weather Information

Last Update: 350 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011
Detailed text forecast
Hazardous weather condition(s):

Short Term Forecast

Today...Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Tonight...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Saturday...Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Southeast winds around 10 mph.

Sunday...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s.

Columbus Day...Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s.

Monday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s.

Tuesday Through Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s. Lows in the lower 60s.

Thursday...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Through Sunday.

true. they did say it might rain on Monday and Tuesday as well
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56. EasyRiderX 3:40 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Oklahoma saw some slight improvement in the last week, with 90 percent of the state in extreme or exceptional drought, down from 92.59 percent a week earlier.
Not sure what your source is there, but that is not correct. According to the Drought Monitor released yesterday, (correction my text) some extreme drought in Oklahoma became exceptional drought, which went up 3.25% since last week.



69.67% exceptional and 9.30% extreme totals 78.97%. Remainder of the state (NE OK) is "only" in severe drought.
:)

Also, while the percentage is smaller, there is ongoing exceptional drought in SE New Mexico and parts of Louisiana.

As far as the next few days go, I'm sure rain on the Plains will be welcome wherever it falls.
:)
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

rainfall estimates from the nws fwd

Through Sunday.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31590
Nothing will form and even it does it will not cause much severe weather for Florida. I believe if is does develope it will more then likely make landfall SC or NC! Just my thoughts. Just going to be another day in florida with spotty showers and a possible thunderstorm.
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

Link
got it from that website

And everyone knows that if it's on a website then it has to be true... right? ;p
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rainfall estimates from the nws fwd
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Quoting sfladoom2011:


its very obvious nothing will develop its going to be another one of the models screw ups they have been having all year long...



I hope so
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Here in SW/SCentral OK this morning, windy and lots of low level moisture streaming in!
:)

From HPC... for W OK and N Texas, the majority of the 5-day total is expected over the weekend.

Day 2 Saturday


Day 3 Sunday
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1010 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>16 2-174-175-071731-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYEL L-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTON E-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAU FMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVA RRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHEN S-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
1010 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.NOW...
SMALL PATCHES OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN WILL BE MOVING
NORTH ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY. VERY ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST
WILL ONLY SEE TRACE AMOUNTS.

ELSEWHERE IN NORTH TEXAS...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK MIDDAY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S AFTER LATE MORNING.

$$


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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Is it $300 million or $1.79 trillion? O_o

why do u need to know anyways?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Is it $300 million or $1.79 trillion? O_o

Link
got it from that website
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

its $300,000,000

Is it $300 million or $1.79 trillion? O_o
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31590
Quoting trey33:


Hey that's where I am - and yes, it's gorgeous! (Busch & Dale Mabry)



good, we are neighbors then. let's see how the weather behaves with us.
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A devastating drought expanded in Texas over the last week as rain showers dotting the U.S. Plains mostly missed the thirsty Southern state, according to a national drought report issued Thursday.

Moderate to locally heavy rains fell on northeastern Oklahoma and southern Missouri, but appeared insufficient to substantially change the drought there.

And in the key farming and ranching state of Texas, conditions grew more dire. Kansas, a top wheat-growing state, also saw dryness expand, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, a weekly summary issued by a consortium of state and federal climatologists.

Another chance of rain was predicted through Oct. 10. Forecasters said a band of rainshowers will move across the central and western Plains, and the northwestern part of Texas through Nebraska and the Dakotas.

But dry weather was forecast to return Oct 11-15, the Drought Monitor said.

Texas so far has suffered more than $5 billion in agricultural losses, and wildfires have scorched millions of acres as the state suffers its longest dry period on record.

According to Thursday's report, 97 percent of the state was considered in extreme or exceptional drought, the highest level reported.

And 87.98 percent of Texas ranked as suffering from exceptional drought alone, according to the Drought Monitor. A week ago, an estimated 85.475 percent of the Lone Star State was rated in the worst category.

Oklahoma saw some slight improvement in the last week, with 90 percent of the state in extreme or exceptional drought, down from 92.59 percent a week earlier.

But Kansas saw the areas of extreme and exceptional drought expand to 32.83 percent of that state from 28.54 percent. Farmers are now planting the new winter wheat crop and need adequate rain for the seeds to germinate.
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

well in 1909 a 1$ bill would be worth 4$, so 75,000,000 x 4 ill let you do the math

its $300,000,000
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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 07 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-129

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX TROPICAL STORM
JOVA AT 9/1800Z NEAR 17.0N 108.8W
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: FIX TROPICAL STORM
JOVA AT 10/1800Z NEAR 18.7N 106.7W.
JWP
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What is $75 billion (1909 USD) --> 2011 USD.

well in 1909 a 1$ bill would be worth 4$, so 75,000,000 x 4 ill let you do the math
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
If all this weather scenario for Florida is going to happen. It better starts developing now because we are like 12 hours away from Saturday !!!!! by the way, the weather is beautiful in Carrollwood, Tampa right now.


Hey that's where I am - and yes, it's gorgeous! (Busch & Dale Mabry)
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Rain anywhere in Texas is welcome. However the heavily populated areas will continue to suffer as they get next to nothing from this system. The drought continues.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Doing homework? ;-)

$75 billion in 1909 = $1.79 trillion in 2010 (http://www.westegg.com/inflation/)

lol, yeah.

Thanks for the link.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31590
If all this weather scenario for Florida is going to happen. It better starts developing now because we are like 12 hours away from Saturday !!!!! by the way, the weather is beautiful in Carrollwood, Tampa right now.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.