Major rains for Southeast U.S., TX, KS, and OK; Jova and Irwin a threat to Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on October 07, 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. I doubt that this storm will acquire enough organization to evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name, based on the latest model output, and the fact that the storm's center may well be over the state of Florida. This will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters along the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 30 - 40 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will not be able to intensify quickly.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 12, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 11 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Heavy rain event coming for drought-stricken regions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
A strong low pressure system is expected to track across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this weekend, bringing the heaviest rains of the year to drought-stricken portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas, including Abilene. Rainfall in this region has been 13 - 20 inches below normal for the year; Lubbock, Texas has had just 3 inches of rain this year, compared to a normal of 16 inches. Rainfall amount of 1 - 4 inches will be common in the region over the weekend, and may be able to reduce drought conditions from the highest level (exceptional) to the second highest level (extreme.) However, the heaviest rains will stay confined to the western half of Texas, and Texas's major cities such as Houston will see very little rain over the weekend. As of yesterday, Houston had gone 253 consecutive days without a one-inch rainstorm, a new record. The longest previous such streak was 192 days, set in 1917 - 1918. The last one inch rainstorm in the city was January 24, 2011. Remarkably, the local National Weather Service office has not issued any flood products in over a year.


Figure 2. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

Philippe being ripped up by wind shear
Hurricane Philippe, the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, doesn't have much time left as a hurricane, due to high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots that is starting to tear the storm apart. Satellite loops show Philippe has become lopsided and is now missing its eye. Philippe will continue to degrade in appearance over the next few days, and will die in the middle Atlantic without affecting any land areas.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Philippe over the mid-Atlantic taken at 10:45 am EDT October 6, 2011. At the time, Philippe was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jova and Irwin: double trouble for Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical storms spun up yesterday. The storm of greatest immediate concern is the one closest to the coast, Tropical Storm Jova. Jova is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of Jova, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. Jova is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing Jova to Category 1 strength. This is probably too conservative, and I expect Jova will be at least a Cat 2 at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be Jova's close proximity to Hurricane Irwin to its west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken Jova, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. The two storms are close enough to each other--about 650 miles apart--that they will affect each others' track, as well. Whenever two storms of at least tropical storm strength approach within 900 miles of each other, a phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect comes into play. This effect causes the two storms to rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Since the degree of rotation will depend on the relative strengths of the the two storms, and our ability to make good intensity forecasts is limited, the track forecasts for both Jova and Irwin will have a higher degree of uncertainty than usual. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Sunday night.

Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Hurricane Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect Jova. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a hurricane on the Mexican coast late next week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Jedkins01:


Exactly my point, the Florida drought monitor you posted here is much more accurate. I'm not sure why Dr. Masters used that map because it makes it seem like the whole state of Florida is dying of drought when its really only the panhandle and portions of Eastern and Southeastern Florida.

I'm not trying to cause controversy, but being a very scientific minded person, I always ask a question and examine carefully, its just how I think.


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148. Skyepony (Mod)
12Z runs are starting to come out.

CMC still has a N Bahamas blob that goes over Florida. Shows that bit of energy racing down the trof toward. S America becoming the second blob that gets slung up the coast.

12zGFS sticks with it rolling up the east coast of FL in to the deep SE.
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been a wet late summer here in this part of e cen fl. there for a while we were getting it everyday asked neighbors been over 20 yrs since we've seen it rain like it has. then we look over the nws in melb. and tv always talking about the drought not here the last goes loop is interesting lots of movement as well as a new system in the epac
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The Northern. N'western side of things.



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soil moisture/drought index
green = high soil moisture
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


GEM seems to reflect a large extratropical or subtropical system with vorti rotating around the central area of lower pressure. Carribean should be active with all of the MJO ensemble models showing significant upward motion.


This will be a challenging forecast for sure. These dynamic weather situations have always kept me interested in the meteorological sciences.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Exactly my point, the Florida drought monitor you posted here is much more accurate. I'm not sure why Dr. Masters used that map because it makes it seem like the whole state of Florida is dying of drought when its really only the panhandle and portions of Eastern and Southeastern Florida.

I'm not trying to cause controversy, but being a very scientific minded person, I always ask a question and examine carefully, its just how I think.

Hey, Jed. That map Dr. Masters posted (Figure 2) accurately shows how how much precipitation would be needed to bring the long-term Palmer Drought Index up to -0.5. It's not necessarily saying that those regions highlighted with darker colors are parched, but rather that a lot of rain is needed to offset the long-term lack of precipitation they've received. Here in Naples, for instance--an area in the "9 to 12" (red) category--we are definitely below normal for the year. We've had some healthy rains recently, but the aquifer is being stressed by both that lack of rain and, as you said, an overabundance of people. IOW, I believe the map is a fair and honest indicator of how things are...
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
intresting to note if you animate the miami radar look between cuba and the florida keys looks to me a circulation center is forming showers are moving Sw towards miami, and the showers over the florida straights are moving NE


Not so much. What you are seeing move NE is the droplets in the cloud tops being picked up and being sheared NE. If you go to the Key West radar, the showers that are near the Keys and over Cuba are moving WSW.
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The Wu Fleet has gone to Cyclogenesis Mode "Magenta",..




Rig for Storm mode.


GOES-13 Low Cloud Image, Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour)

..click image for loop.


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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


GEM seems to reflect a large extratropical or subtropical system with vorti rotating around the central area of lower pressure. Carribean should be active with all of the MJO ensemble models showing significant upward motion.




Good set-up for tropical development in 10-15 days. Interesting seeing the ECMWF following the GEFS at Phase 8 and 1.
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Got a gusty rainshower passing over my location right now... gusts to 32. And the temperature dropped off nicely too.
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intresting to note if you animate the miami radar look between cuba and the florida keys looks to me a circulation center is forming showers are moving Sw towards miami, and the showers over the florida straights are moving NE
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Oh I'm well aware of the coming rain :) I just was surprised to see something this heavy today, a lot of trapped low level moisture beneath the dry air aloft, but the moisture will become more deep layered with time, leading larger convective complexes and heavier totals.


Hopefully wind will not be an issue. I was planning on going to Bimini this weekend, I guess I'm gonna have to reschedule.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Not true, NOAA has gauges 15 inches above normal over the interior. I know the there is drought, but come on guys, lets not be pessimistic and make it worse and more widespread than it is.


Link to NOAA gauges in South Florida showing this?
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Quoting hydrus:
Very true about the well situation. Ours definitely need a boost..Did you see this. The GEM has four lows spinning up into some off the wall Fujiwara, with a potent looking system in the Western Caribbean at the end of the run..Link


GEM seems to reflect a large extratropical or subtropical system with vorti rotating around the central area of lower pressure. Carribean should be active with all of the MJO ensemble models showing significant upward motion.


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Quoting 12george1:

Yeah, its true that West Palm Beach needs like 14" of rain. I have seen that in the Palm Beach Post because I live in that area. But why does that U.S drought monitor thing show that West Palm Beach is borderline no drought/abnormally dry?


Quite likely due to near normal summer precip, and remember... that is a low resolution image and gives an average. We know (since we live in FL) that we may not get a drop of rain, but 1/4 mile away gets an inch or two. Seen it happen all too often here. There are some areas in South FL that are in excess precip for the year, and then others, like WPB that are way in deficit. Some areas may be very moist, but yet there are others that could qualify for severe drought conditions... it is an average really.

Look at this link... shows a graph of Lake Okee water level. As you can see, the water level has risen on a near normal pace (normal level is solid black line, and the blue colored area is current level.

Link
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Don't know about Central Florida, but in South Florida every observation site is below normal rainfall for the year and many of our wells are also below normal.

Link


Not true, NOAA has gauges 15 inches above normal over the interior. I know the there is drought, but come on guys, lets not be pessimistic and make it worse and more widespread than it is.
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Quoting BenBIogger:


Very unstable pattern setting up over southern Florida for the next 2-3 days.

Windy conditions should persist over the weekend.


Oh I'm well aware of the coming rain :) I just was surprised to see something this heavy today, a lot of trapped low level moisture beneath the dry air aloft, but the moisture will become more deep layered with time, leading larger convective complexes and heavier totals.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Currently getting a heavy and gusty shower on the West Coast with a little thunder, I didn't really expect this today!


Very unstable pattern setting up over southern Florida for the next 2-3 days.

Windy conditions should persist over the weekend.
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Quoting TropicTraveler:


Is this caused by winds from the trough that passed through? Those are healthy looking waves!


It is gradient winds between the strong high over the Appalachians and TN Valley region and lower pressure associated with stalled front to the south (which will be the one responsible for the possible development of the subtropical system)... so yeah related to the trough. And from what I understand, the waves are supposed to build, ranging from 6-9ft in the surf zone, to upwards of 13ft offshore. So beach erosion and coastal flooding will be a concern over the next several days, along with rip currents.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


But a lake as large as Lake Okee takes a LOT of rain to fill it up to normal. With Fay, it was below normal, until heavy rains fell over the lake and in its tributaries to the north. Areas that received 20" of rain. While many locations in Central and South FL received near normal rainfall during the wet season this year, they reside well below normal for the year totals... example: West Palm Beach is officially over 14" below normal on the year. Recent rains of summer have "helped" the drought indicies in the region, however with deficits as large as they are, it will take a substantial amount to replenish the lake's volume to normal. Normal rainfall will not cut it, it will just maintain the typical annual rise/fall of the lake. Above normal will help to replenish.

Yeah, its true that West Palm Beach needs like 14" of rain. I have seen that in the Palm Beach Post because I live in that area. But why does that U.S drought monitor thing show that West Palm Beach is borderline no drought/abnormally dry?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Don't know about Central Florida, but in South Florida every observation site is below normal rainfall for the year and many of our wells are also below normal.

Link
Very true about the well situation. Ours definitely need a boost..Did you see this. The GEM has four lows spinning up into some off the wall Fujiwara, with a potent looking system in the Western Caribbean at the end of the run..Link
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Good afternoon!!!! just wondering why??,this blog is so SLOW!!!! lately?,specially with a big weather event coming to South Florida and the Eastern States in the next few days,this blog used to be very active!!!!.
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Quoting 12george1:

Lake Okeechobee is always either too high or too low. See, the area around it is only abnormally dry or no drought at all.


But a lake as large as Lake Okee takes a LOT of rain to fill it up to normal. With Fay, it was below normal, until heavy rains fell over the lake and in its tributaries to the north. Areas that received 20" of rain. While many locations in Central and South FL received near normal rainfall during the wet season this year, they reside well below normal for the year totals... example: West Palm Beach is officially over 14" below normal on the year. Recent rains of summer have "helped" the drought indicies in the region, however with deficits as large as they are, it will take a substantial amount to replenish the lake's volume to normal. Normal rainfall will not cut it, it will just maintain the typical annual rise/fall of the lake. Above normal will help to replenish.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm going to be honest, that Palmer drought map is not very accurate, we have a 13 inch surplus for the year here in Central Florida, and most of central and south Florida except the far eastern areas are at or above average. There is nothing close to a drought in West Central Florida. The east and southeast coast is still a drought, but only a minority of Central and South Florida is in drought, that map makes it seems like a large majority is, which just isn't true.

We will take more rain for sure though, and the East Coast which still has some drought should get quite the soaking.


Don't know about Central Florida, but in South Florida every observation site is below normal rainfall for the year and many of our wells are also below normal.

Link
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 535 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND ON HURRICANE IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
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99E winding up.

11 AM PDT TWO:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

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Currently getting a heavy and gusty shower on the West Coast with a little thunder, I didn't really expect this today!
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Quoting gordydunnot:
I think lake Okeechobe is about 3 feet below normal, going into the dry season. So we are missing water somewhere.


Lake OkeeChobee is always below normally even if it gets its normal rainfall. That is because there are too many human beings living in Florida. The Southeast Coast of Florida's overpopulation has destroyed delicate ecosystems and sucked the life out of the big lake.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


I have 0.15" so far here and looks like more showers are poised to move ashore here in Brevard county in the next couple hours, also have gusts to 25 or so. But lots of hazy sunshine right now. Went from dewpoints in the low-mid 50s a couple days ago, to 70F now. Something is definitely brewing... and it will be a downright soggy weekend.

Also see what is happening to the ocean here locally:

Link


Is this caused by winds from the trough that passed through? Those are healthy looking waves!
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Actually the model consensus is over the Southeast gulf, not the Bahamas. Take a look at the water vapor loop, there is an upper low beginning to take shape, well the expectation was the a surface reflection will spin up south of where the upper low goes, that upper low is moving south. The GFS is really the only major model showing an East Coast low, and it has been inconsistent will intensity and placement. The ECMWF has been placing a low in the Southeast gulf with consistent placement and intensity. The other models that were showing on East coast landfall now have taken more of a straight over Florida approach. That leaves the Bahamas cyclogenesis with not much support other than the inconsistent GFS.

I'd recommend Levi's video for today.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Exactly my point, the Florida drought monitor you posted here is much more accurate. I'm not sure why Dr. Masters used that map because it makes it seem like the whole state of Florida is dying of drought when its really only the panhandle and portions of Eastern and Southeastern Florida.

I'm not trying to cause controversy, but being a very scientific minded person, I always ask a question and examine carefully, its just how I think.
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Quoting weatherbro:
I wonder how the cold front next Friday that'll stall over the NW Caribbean by the weekend(just south of Cuba) will spin anything up? I'll give it a 90% shot since the MJO will peak by then. Most likely steering will be NE since a trough is expected to set up shop over the East by then.

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Quoting Skyepony:
Nice cloudy day, low 80s, wind died down. Getting the occasional fleeting downpour, only 0.12" so far. Coastal East Central FL flood chance is up to orange.

MJO is pulling in, ~3/4 the models including our better performers this year keep it here a while & strengthen it considerably. Mid Month maybe peak.




I'm still concerned Columbia & northern South America is going to take the brunt in overall rainfall.

Back closer the home the seed trof that should create the blob & bring rain is over Hispaniola at the moment.. the whole area, even out to the Gulf of Mexico is scattered with little bits of vorticity, feeding on moisture, hot waters & the wind from the east. Notice on rainbow the strongest one is shooting down the trof to South America. The bulk of the trof is expected to begin to blob up over Southern Bahamas. Models are split between a blob that spins up into a storm over East Central FL then rides up the east coast or multi vorticity blob the first crosses FL, with another on a tail that slings up the east coast. Notice all models have backed off a few days on when. So I want to lean a little west.


Take a look at the water vapor loop, there is an upper low beginning to take shape, well the expectation was the a surface reflection will spin up south of where the upper low goes, that upper low is moving south. The GFS is really the only major model showing an East Coast low, and it has been inconsistent will intensity and placement. The ECMWF has been placing a low in the Southeast gulf with consistent placement and intensity. The other models that were showing on East coast landfall now have taken more of a straight over Florida approach. That leaves the Bahamas cyclogenesis with not much support other than the inconsistent GFS.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
I think lake Okeechobe is about 3 feet below normal, going into the dry season. So we are missing water somewhere.
The drought in Florida is considerable in some areas, and not so bad in others. Any additional rain will certainly be beneficial for the state with a long dry season ahead. I hope it does not come in the form of a damaging October hurricane tho.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Lake Okeechobee is always either too high or too low. See, the area around it is only abnormally dry or no drought at all.
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I wonder how the cold front next Friday that'll stall over the NW Caribbean(just south of Cuba) will spin anything up? I'll give it a 90% shot since the MJO will peak by then. Most likely steering will be NE since a trough is expected to set up shop over the East by then.

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I think lake Okeechobe is about 3 feet below normal, going into the dry season. So we are missing water somewhere.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm going to be honest, that Palmer drought map is not very accurate, we have a 13 inch surplus for the year here in Central Florida, and most of central and south Florida except the far eastern areas are at or above average. There is nothing close to a drought in West Central Florida. The east and southeast coast is still a drought, but only a minority of Central and South Florida is in drought, that map makes it seems like a large majority is, which just isn't true.

We will take more rain for sure though, and the East Coast which still has some drought should get quite the soaking.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
My guess for the weekend. Can't really tell if or where a low will form. But if I was a bettting man I'll go with just North of the western tip of Cuba, probably closer to Sunday then Saturday. Have a nice weekend all. When can I jump on the Detroit bandwagon, if anybody deserves it more than New Orleans did it's got to be Detroit.Still watching I think mid-Oct. might be the excitment ticket.Good Luck to all.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Nice cloudy day, low 80s, wind died down. Getting the occasional fleeting downpour, only 0.12" so far. Coastal East Central FL flood chance is up to orange.

MJO is pulling in, ~3/4 the models including our better performers this year keep it here a while & strengthen it considerably. Mid Month maybe peak.




I'm still concerned Columbia & northern South America is going to take the brunt in overall rainfall.

Back closer the home the seed trof that should create the blob & bring rain is over Hispaniola at the moment.. the whole area, even out to the Gulf of Mexico is scattered with little bits of vorticity, feeding on moisture, hot waters & the wind from the east. Notice on rainbow the strongest one is shooting down the trof to South America. The bulk of the trof is expected to begin to blob up over Southern Bahamas. Models are split between a blob that spins up into a storm over East Central FL then rides up the east coast or multi vorticity blob the first crosses FL, with another on a tail that slings up the east coast. Notice all models have backed off a few days on when. So I want to lean a little west.


I have 0.15" so far here and looks like more showers are poised to move ashore here in Brevard county in the next couple hours, also have gusts to 25 or so. But lots of hazy sunshine right now. Went from dewpoints in the low-mid 50s a couple days ago, to 70F now. Something is definitely brewing... and it will be a downright soggy weekend.

Also see what is happening to the ocean here locally:

Link
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Wash out weekend on tap... Looks like a great time to get into the woodshop!
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I'm going to be honest, that Palmer drought map is not very accurate, we have a 13 inch surplus for the year here in Central Florida, and most of central and south Florida except the far eastern areas are at or above average. There is nothing close to a drought in West Central Florida. The east and southeast coast is still a drought, but only a minority of Central and South Florida is in drought, that map makes it seems like a large majority is, which just isn't true.

We will take more rain for sure though, and the East Coast which still has some drought should get quite the soaking.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Nice cloudy day, low 80s, wind died down. Getting the occasional fleeting downpour, only 0.12" so far. Coastal East Central FL flood chance is up to orange.

MJO is pulling in, ~3/4 the models including our better performers this year keep it here a while & strengthen it considerably. Mid Month maybe peak.




I'm still concerned Columbia & northern South America is going to take the brunt in overall rainfall.

Back closer the home the seed trof that should create the blob & bring rain is over Hispaniola at the moment.. the whole area, even out to the Gulf of Mexico is scattered with little bits of vorticity, feeding on moisture, hot waters & the wind from the east. Notice on rainbow the strongest one is shooting down the trof to South America. The bulk of the trof is expected to begin to blob up over Southern Bahamas. Models are split between a blob that spins up into a storm over East Central FL then rides up the east coast or multi vorticity blob the first crosses FL, with another on a tail that slings up the east coast. Notice all models have backed off a few days on when. So I want to lean a little west.
Hello Skye. It was mentioned that this MJO will pack a considerable punch. Levi showed the GFS long range which indicates a major pattern shift and a potentially dangerous system developing in the Western Caribbean. Like you said, Central America could have a major flooding event. Scary stuff.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


example:

in 1909 (starting point)

average wage was $0.22 per hour
one dozen eggs was .14 cents
that meant one would have to work .64 hours(rounded) to buy one dozen eggs

2011 MINIMUM wage is like $7.75 (or close there of)
one dozen eggs is now $1.49
now one works .14(rounded) hours to buy the same eggs

since more can be bought with the same dollar...the value of money increased


This is weird. I came to a weather blog, and now I find myself thinking about buying eggs.

Maybe before our S. FL deluge hits I will do that, but I need to decide quickly before the value of the dollar (and therefore the cost of the eggs) changes.
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Quoting islander101010:
e cen fl. blustery 1/8 inch of rain so far a mile away 1and 1/2 inches might get another rd this evening


Still haven't gotten a drop in Boca... everything seems to be north of us.

I suspect we'll get it before the day is out though.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Nice cloudy day, low 80s, wind died down. Getting the occasional fleeting downpour, only 0.12" so far. Coastal East Central FL flood chance is up to orange.

MJO is pulling in, ~3/4 the models including our better performers this year keep it here a while & strengthen it considerably. Mid Month maybe peak.




I'm still concerned Columbia & northern South America is going to take the brunt in overall rainfall.

Back closer the home the seed trof that should create the blob & bring rain is over Hispaniola at the moment.. the whole area, even out to the Gulf of Mexico is scattered with little bits of vorticity, feeding on moisture, hot waters & the wind from the east. Notice on rainbow the strongest one is shooting down the trof to South America. The bulk of the trof is expected to begin to blob up over Southern Bahamas. Models are split between a blob that spins up into a storm over East Central FL then rides up the east coast or multi vorticity blob the first crosses FL, with another on a tail that slings up the east coast. Notice all models have backed off a few days on when. So I want to lean a little west.

We can feel the MJO's lift here in Austin. It hasn't been humid in a year here, and now it is.

May the de-mummification begin.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.