Wet and windy subtropical storm possible for Southeast U.S.; Mexico eyes TD-10E

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on October 06, 2011

Share this Blog
21
+

A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. The storm may evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name by Monday or Tuesday, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center favors a more westerly location, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model. The GFS model, which puts the storm's center east of Florida, is pushing the weather system that will spawn the subtropical storm too fast to the east. In any case, the exact center location of the storm will not matter that much, since this will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core, and I'm not concerned at present about this storm potentially becoming a hurricane.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Tuesday, October 11, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Philippe becomes a hurricane
After 12 days and 49 advisories, Philippe has finally intensified into hurricane, becoming the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. The fifth hurricane normally arrives on October 7, so this is a very average season for hurricanes, despite the fact it is already the 7th busiest season since record keeping began in 1851 for number of tropical storms--sixteen. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small hurricane with just a hint of an eye. A wide band of clouds to Philippe's northwest is associated with the trough of low pressure that has recurved Philippe to the northeast. By Friday, the trough will bring very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that has recurved Philippe to the northeast.

A double threat to Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical cyclones have formed. The one of greatest concern is Tropical Depression 10-E. TD 10-E is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of TD-10E, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. TD 10-E is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range for the next five days. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting TD-10E's potential for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, the GFDL model predicts TD-10E will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast, and the HWRF model brings the storm to Category 2 strength. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing TD-10E to Category 1 strength, but this is conservative, and I put the odds at 30% that the storm will be a Cat 2 or stronger at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be TD-10E's close proximity to Tropical Storm Irwin to the west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken TD-10E, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. Regardless of TD-10E's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.

Once TD-10E has made landfall, Mexico may need to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect TD 10-E. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall on the Mexican coast late next week.

European heat wave: hottest October temperatures on record for the UK
The British Isles have been basking in an unprecedented October heat wave this week, which has brought the warmest temperature ever measured in the UK for the month of October. On Oct. 1, a reading of 29.9°C (85.8°F) was recorded at Gravesend, Kent, beating the previous UK October record of 29.4°C (84.9°F) at Cambridgeshire on Oct. 1, 1985. Wales also broke their warmest temperature for October with a 28.2°C (82.7°F) at Hawarden, Flintshire. Edinburgh, Scotland reached 24.7°C (76.4°F) for Scotland's warmest temperature in at least 50 years. Thanks go to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His latest post is on record hurricanes of the past in the Pacific Ocean.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 459 - 409

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11Blog Index

459. KUEFC
There is only the gfs even hints at sub trop storm, but yet people acting like its definate
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
Quoting KUEFC:
not one pro met has even mentioned this looping or anything to many people here trying to cause panic for no reason


Just an observation which is why I am a "wannabe" and not a pro and not trying to cause a panic here.....lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

notice the cold front in n.m where this cold front stops will be where the heavisest rainfall is, if it makes it justt about 50 miles east all all of texas will get heavy rainfall so pray it makes it that far(:
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 865
This mornings CMC run is rather unsettling...Hope this links,Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting intampa:
watched channel 13, 10 and 28 in tampa last night they all predicted an east coast storm and most stated probably not much rain for west coast of florida.


Bay News 9 this morning was showing the low forming in South Florida and moving right up through Tampa this weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looking at satelite images we need to watch closely around andros island in the bahamas , looks like something may be trying to get going there tomorrow morning will be intresting
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3006
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
The thing is that there's no surface low at the moment anywhere near Florida, Cuba, Bahamas, Gulf of Mexico, you name it !!!

its not expected to form till tomorrow or Sunday, the subtropical storm will form from the low sometime next week.
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 865
The thing is that there's no surface low at the moment anywhere near Florida, Cuba, Bahamas, Gulf of Mexico, you name it !!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
451. KUEFC
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I have not looked at the model runs yet (particularly on a pending system where the final center and movement may be off by a few hundred miles) but it will have a large impact on Florida, oon both coasts, and could loop around South Florida and emerge back on the East Coast. Looks like beach erosion city to me for Florida and the Atlantic Seaboard if it really deepens over the weekend.
not one pro met has even mentioned this looping or anything to many people here trying to cause panic for no reason
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
Quoting whepton3:


And in the last couple of images on the water vapor loop that area is looking like it's trying to get hooked up:

Link

Starting to look sporty on rainbow as well:

Link
There might be a small surface low forming there, but remember, the Mets and the models are predicting a large sub-tropical low or gale center to form. Maybe yesterdays CMC run was on to something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have to drive from Jacksonville to Cape Coral today and back on Monday. Should be a fun drive with my rear wheel car lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
that would be a mlc in the gom,nt a ull,cpuld work to the surface but would take days,if sheers low enought we could see the mlc die and a llc become dominant,that llc should form between kw and naples imo probably sun/mon,then track to th e north into or along the west coast of fl
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting Jedkins01:



Normally I would trust the local stations here but I would disregard them right now, the NWS has shown that the general consensus is in the the Southeastern gulf, which is strange because the local weather stations usually are mostly in agreement with the NWS on overall setup. The GFS is the only model insisting on an East Coast development, and it hasn't been very consistent in its placement. The ECMWF however has been very consistent on intensity and placement of the low in the Southeastern gulf. Furthermore, additional models have trended west with time.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I have not looked at the model runs yet (particularly on a pending system where the final center and movement may be off by a few hundred miles) but it will have a large impact on Florida, on both coasts, and could loop around South Florida and emerge back on the East Coast. Looks like beach erosion city to me for Florida and the Atlantic Seaboard if it really deepens over the weekend.

Going to be interesting to watch for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning everyone. I love this cool stalled front. It is making it real breezy and cooler than it has been. Feels like fall. Last night upon leaving work I drove toward the Atlantic and could see white caps out there. Whoever questioned a fishing trip this weekend to the Marquesas, I think you should cancel. Too much wind and rough surf. No rain in the Keys...yet. There are a lot of clouds around on the horizon. Hopefully it will be a cool, breezy and slightly wet weekend at East Martello. Love it!!! Have a good dsy and great weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have not looked at the model runs yet (particularly on a pending system where the final center and movement may be off by a few hundred miles) but it will have a large impact on Florida, on both coasts, and could loop around South Florida and emerge back on the East Coast. Looks like beach erosion city to me for Florida and the Atlantic Seaboard if it really deepens over the weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning Folks. I could certainly be wrong (Central Gulf vs. Cuba/Bahamas) but in looking at the Gulf Water Vapor loop this morning, my vote for the pending center of the Low would be that patch south of the Panhandle drifting down towards the Central Gulf this morning. The upper level vorticity in that region is also quite evident on the 200 mb CIMSS chart this morning.

Link


I agree, it appears that is the upper trough carving out into an upper low. You can already see how the environment has already become more favorable for convection around Florida. Also, noticed the upper trough and vorticity max is diving south. The surface reflection generally occurs south of that. The GFS has the upper low placement to far east as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting intampa:
watched channel 13, 10 and 28 in tampa last night they all predicted an east coast storm and most stated probably not much rain for west coast of florida.



Normally I would trust the local stations here but I would disregard them right now, the NWS has shown that the general consensus is in the the Southeastern gulf, which is strange because the local weather stations usually are mostly in agreement with the NWS on overall setup. The GFS is the only model insisting on an East Coast development, and it hasn't been very consistent in its placement. The ECMWF however has been very consistent on intensity and placement of the low in the Southeastern gulf. Furthermore, additional models have trended west with time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting fortpiercecane1:

I hear ya on the drive to work, port saint lucie blvd and us1 was not a good time this morning. Looks to be a real wet weekend here in ecfl.


That drive is never good no matter what the weather! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning Folks. I could certainly be wrong (Central Gulf vs. Cuba/Bahamas) but in looking at the Gulf Water Vapor loop this morning, my vote for the pending center of the Low would be that patch south of the Panhandle drifting down towards the Central Gulf this morning. The upper level vorticity in that region is also quite evident on the 200 mb CIMSS chart this morning.

Link


And in the last couple of images on the water vapor loop that area is looking like it's trying to get hooked up:

Link

Starting to look sporty on rainbow as well:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting fortpiercecane1:

I hear ya on the drive to work, port saint lucie blvd and us1 was not a good time this morning. Looks to be a real wet weekend here in ecfl.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting fortpiercecane1:

I hear ya on the drive to work, port saint lucie blvd and us1 was not a good time this morning. Looks to be a real wet weekend here in ecfl.


Y'all have had 4 inches of rain over the last couple days, and this entrenched mess is only making it worse.

Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2536
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning Folks. I could certainly be wrong (Central Gulf vs. Cuba/Bahamas) but in looking at the Gulf Water Vapor loop this morning, my vote for the pending center of the Low would be that patch south of the Panhandle drifting down towards the Central Gulf this morning. The upper level vorticity in that region is also quite evident on the 200 mb CIMSS chart this morning.

Link


Pretty good puttin' the pieces together there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1739
Good Morning Folks. I could certainly be wrong (Central Gulf vs. Cuba/Bahamas) but in looking at the Gulf Water Vapor loop this morning, my vote for the pending center of the Low would be that patch south of the Panhandle drifting down towards the Central Gulf this morning. The upper level vorticity in that region is also quite evident on the 200 mb CIMSS chart this morning.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


It's dumping rain in Port St. Lucie and Fort Pierce. Miserable drive to work this morning. Medians full of water and ditches filling fast. Gonna be lots of flooded roads later today if this keeps up which will make the drive home after work a mess. It trained rain in all night and the radar still shows lots more heading this way. Any thoughts on where the low is going to form? I am looking at all that convection down around the Keys and over Cuba. Also see another bit in NE Gulf. Guess we will just have to continue to wait and watch.

I hear ya on the drive to work, port saint lucie blvd and us1 was not a good time this morning. Looks to be a real wet weekend here in ecfl.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
goodmorning.
signs of activity in Florida Straits.
Link
Have to drive through and just northeast and west of Orlando today.
I hope the weather holds until I get out of there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:
triger mechanism dropping southinto eastern gom,watch today as a mid level low establishes itself in the area,where will the surafecblo form imo right off naples area by about 100 miles to sw


I posted a link earlier this morning... you can really see it well on the water vapor imagery.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NWS TAMPA

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE
PREFERRED MODEL IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS TOO FAR
EAST WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
LIKELY A HYBRID TYPE STORM SYSTEM. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL
ENHANCE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT DRY SLOT MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTER
WHICH COULD BE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OVER THE EASTERN
GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE.
POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN BANDS WHICH COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE BIG
BEND AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WILL CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP CREATING A THREAT OF
COASTAL FLOODING. ALTHOUGH TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN
DOUBT...ATTM IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
triger mechanism dropping southinto eastern gom,watch today as a mid level low establishes itself in the area,where will the surafecblo form imo right off naples area by about 100 miles to sw
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting fortpiercecane1:
Its is dumping rain in Jensen beach this morning.


It's dumping rain in Port St. Lucie and Fort Pierce. Miserable drive to work this morning. Medians full of water and ditches filling fast. Gonna be lots of flooded roads later today if this keeps up which will make the drive home after work a mess. It trained rain in all night and the radar still shows lots more heading this way. Any thoughts on where the low is going to form? I am looking at all that convection down around the Keys and over Cuba. Also see another bit in NE Gulf. Guess we will just have to continue to wait and watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Post 381, Quadrantid.

Excellent post there.
It's so good to know that there are sensitive folks putting forth their views on the AGW debate.

I hope that with posts like yours, some of the Unbelievers will start to think again about the future and do something about it by coming out on the side of Science.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
06z WRF forms an area of low pressure over northern central Cuba.

42 Hours
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Tampa NWS Discussion

FOR TOMORROW AND SUNDAY...SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MORE
COMPLICATED. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN BEGINS TO TRACK
NORTHWARD. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY IS STILL
UNCERTAIN BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS FAVORS THE ECMWF.
REGARDLESS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG A
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY...THERMODYNAMICS DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TO
AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
INLAND THROUGH THE EAST COAST.


That would be me.

I need an airboat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
See lots of weather racing by to my south in Boca Raton
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherman12345:

so lucky......im on the blog in my first period which is study hall. What are your thoughts about the florida mess this weekend into next week.

Regardless of whether we see develop or not, Florida will have a very wet weekend, with much of the Southeastern USA experiencing the same as we head into next week. However, I do believe there is a good chance of us seeing Subtropical development over the next few days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's because they're all going with the GFS model and discounting the ECMWF model. Actually just watched Fox 13 and Sheena Parveen says there is still uncertainty at this time since the low hasn't developed yet. I liked the NWS discussions for Tampa yesterday it took into account both models and leaned towards the ECMWF, but right of its track putting the low off the southwest coast of FL., which showed the unbiased in their thinking.



Sheena Parveen.......gettin it done!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tampa NWS Discussion

FOR TOMORROW AND SUNDAY...SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MORE
COMPLICATED. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN BEGINS TO TRACK
NORTHWARD. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY IS STILL
UNCERTAIN BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS FAVORS THE ECMWF.
REGARDLESS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG A
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY...THERMODYNAMICS DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TO
AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
INLAND THROUGH THE EAST COAST.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11107
Its is dumping rain in Jensen beach this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Phillipe still looks intact and riding the trough northeast. Amazing storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting intampa:
watched channel 13, 10 and 28 in tampa last night they all predicted an east coast storm and most stated probably not much rain for west coast of florida.
That's because they're all going with the GFS model and discounting the ECMWF model. Actually just watched Fox 13 and Sheena Parveen says there is still uncertainty at this time since the low hasn't developed yet. I liked the NWS discussions for Tampa yesterday it took into account both models and leaned towards the ECMWF, but right of its track putting the low off the southwest coast of FL., which showed the unbiased in their thinking.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm out for the night, but before I go, I wanted to tell those who haven't seen it that Wunderground's Angela Fritz has posted an excellent and sobering blog entry on the subject of sea ice and the climate. Using language simple enough for lay people to understand, she goes into great detail explaining where things are--and, much more importantly, where things are headed.
Just visited this blog and read the entry on sea ice. Well worth a diversion for a few minutes. This is an excellent analysis and a little scary.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
flooding in texas? maybe. between the stalled out front and the leftovers of two landfalling epac storms there might be problems
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11107
watched channel 13, 10 and 28 in tampa last night they all predicted an east coast storm and most stated probably not much rain for west coast of florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2005 had a very active late season, so this is where we will definitely lose track of the season, regardless if this one is very active or not.

2011: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe.

2005: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katrina, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all.

Philippe is a good-looking storm, after struggling to maintain itself for almost two weeks. Finally, it has become a hurricane, and may, MAY be hitting its peak now. However, the NHC stated in the 5AM advisory that T#'s were around 4.5...They are 4.8 now, or close to Category 2 strength. The NHC will probably keep 90 mph, or they may go with 100 mph. It would be nice to see Philippe become a Category 2 hurricane...



I have no school today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
If anyone is interested, I just compiled another blog entry on the very active Northern Hemispheric tropics -- including details on the possible Florida storm. Also, some interesting statistics on Philippe.


Nice summary on your blog. I'm spending a week in Key West 10/15-22. That's well into the future, but do you have any comfort in predicting what type of week that might be based on any of the weather models at this point?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting indianrivguy:
Hows the wind down in Boca? Been pretty fresh here to your north in Jensen. Offshore has been lumpy for two days, shut down the fishing.


Really pulling some fast stuff across your part of the peninsula.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricaneben:


Tonight...you mean today, but yeah I see where you're getting. It's about to get rather nasty we'll just have to see. You think we'll get flash flooding?


Yeah... I think it will be later in the day though.

NWS only has us for 40 percent today right now.. so I think it will be hit and miss... the real fun will be tomorrow.

and yes, one of the local TV stations will find an intersection with three feet of water I think.

Clear skies this morning...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting indianrivguy:
Hows the wind down in Boca? Been pretty fresh here to your north in Jensen. Offshore has been lumpy for two days, shut down the fishing.


Rather calm at the moment, but the skies look beautiful.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 459 - 409

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
75 °F
Overcast