Wet subtropical storm possible for Florida this weekend

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on October 05, 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rains is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. Most of the models develop this system into a tropical or subtropical storm, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The ECMWF model predicts the storm will form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, then move north into the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. If this track verifies, the oil rigs off the coast of Southeast Louisiana may experience a one or two day period of sustained winds above tropical storm force Monday or Tuesday. The GFS and NOGAPS models put the storm on the other side of Florida, over the Northwestern Bahamas, and predict the storm will move northwards and hit North Carolina on Wednesday. The UKMET model is in-between, developing the storm right on top of Florida. Since the storm is going to be getting its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center, bringing heavy rains to a wide region of the Southeast U.S. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core. If the storm follows the path of the GFS model, it could be similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974. That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has a more technical discussion of this coming storm for those interested.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Monday, October 10, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is about to interact with a frontal system and turn northeastward out to sea. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with a modest amount heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear will remain in the moderate range today, which may allow the storm to intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by several of the intensity forecast models. By Thursday, wind shear will rise to a very high 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that is expected to absorb the storm and recurve it to the northeast on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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511. aspectre
6:37 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
deleted
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
510. SPLbeater
5:20 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
i think Phillipe might be 90 mph at 5 PM..or higher, cuz he still strengthenin
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
509. druseljic
3:23 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
NEW BLOG :-)
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
508. interstatelover7165
3:19 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50





Tropical Storm PHILIPPE Forecast Discussion





EPIC FAIL on the NHC's Part.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
507. HurrikanEB
3:15 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Katia had been the longest lasting storm so far this season... 50 NHC advisories.
Philippe is now up to 50 advisories as well, but he spent 49 of those as a tropical storm/depression :P
Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1306
506. interstatelover7165
3:14 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
...PHILIPPE BECOMES A HURRICANE...BUT REMAINS NO THREAT TO LAND...
11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 6
Location: 27.8°N 60.0°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: NNE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
505. interstatelover7165
3:14 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Hi, Pre-STS-Rina.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
504. ScottLincoln
3:03 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
I have stated many times that our current shift in the climate is a combination of trend on oscillation. However, many of you seemed not to believe this information. Maybe we think of trends and oscillations as co-dependant, or that PDO [plus] AMO [plus] low solar = no AGW. Actually, let me demonstrate what a trend [plus] oscillation actually looks like, in terms of a non-temperature parameter: /em>


Although I might suggest its something more like...
[internal variability/weather/noise] & [natural cycles/oscillations] & [long term trend]

There have been several good analyses of this done - some by scientist bloggers and I believe a few in the scientific literature. Statistician Grant Foster did a good one on his blog, taking the average estimate for several natural forcings and then adding that to the average estimate for greenhouse gas forcings, then calculating a "projected temperature" based on the values of each of those natural & anthropogenic components. The result was a very very close representation of the actual temperature over the last several decades.

You will have a hard time finding climate scientists that will argue global temperature is on a linear function with greenhouse gas concentrations. It is widely understood that all of these things play a role in the global climate, but the human factor is the dominant factor in the long term changes (decadal scales and larger).
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3172
503. Patrap
2:57 PM GMT on October 06, 2011

Central Atlantic - Water Vapor Loop

..click image for Loop, TFP's are available

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
502. Levi32
2:54 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, October 6th, with Video
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26566
501. AussieStorm
2:54 PM GMT on October 06, 2011






Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
500. SPLbeater
2:53 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Phillipe 80 mph Cat 1 O.o...I like!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
499. KUEFC
2:50 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Still plenty of dry air knocking about, its even moved south towards cuba and the behamas.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
498. WxLogic
2:42 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


RINA!


:P Thanks for the correction and it has been corrected.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4948
497. Sfloridacat5
2:39 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Most recent NAM just finished running. It shows a low sitting right over the upper keys/Miami area in 72 hours.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6227
496. Sfloridacat5
2:34 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Most of the models still agree that a low pressure system will get going around Florida in a few days. I think their having difficulty predicting how strong this low will get.

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6227
495. AstroHurricane001
2:32 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting WxLogic:


Might not become strong enough to become STS Rita, but the front is currently in the southern Bahamas.


RINA!
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
494. RitaEvac
2:31 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Rainfall departure at Galveston since Hurricane Ike is now over 43" inches...
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
493. AstroHurricane001
2:29 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
As we head into the early stages of autumn, it appears that a major pattern shift has occurred, now that the northern hemisphere has cooled: the area of drought has shifted from the central US Midwest, Texas and Ogallala region, toward the US Mideast, Great Lakes and southern Mississippi River region. Meanwhile, the same low pressure vortex complex that absorbed Ophelia produced new vorticies, including one that became a TS-force Nor'easter for Atlantic Canada, the same storm now absorbing Philippe.

Off to a bit of a tangent now. I have stated many times that our current shift in the climate is a combination of trend on oscillation. However, many of you seemed not to believe this information. Maybe we think of trends and oscillations as co-dependant, or that PDO [plus] AMO [plus] low solar = no AGW. Actually, let me demonstrate what a trend [plus] oscillation actually looks like, in terms of a non-temperature parameter: (weird. "plus" signs don't even work on the blog.)



Meanwhile, has Philippe reached hurricane status yet?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
492. CaicosRetiredSailor
2:29 PM GMT on October 06, 2011


Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5999
491. stillwaiting
2:25 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
the twave is currently south of the area between dr and pr
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
490. KUEFC
2:24 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:


The moisture is really increasing here on the east side of FL with the tropical east flow off the ocean. Already having racing low clouds with rain this morning. You can see the trof in the southern Bahamas, that extends over Cuba gathering moisture form the tail of the front..give it a few days.



The trough looks to be moving to the east along with Phillipe? or at least to my eyes anyway?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
489. stillwaiting
2:21 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
check the water vapor, a mid level low will be forming off swfl or over florida saturday, that should be the "trigger "to start some development,think of it as a batch of westerlies in the mid/ull diping down and sparking vorticity because winds are strong out of the ne over that area now (egom/fl/se coast) beacuase of the strong high pressure ,hope that makes a little sense in lamens,the mid level low might spawn a surfaceblow as well or work its way to surface and transition to partial warm core,you can throw a twave approaching in the mix as well
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
488. Skyepony (Mod)
2:21 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I don't see any hint of that supposed low that is going to form near Florida right now. I hope nothing develops at all.


The moisture is really increasing here on the east side of FL with the tropical east flow off the ocean. Already having racing low clouds with rain this morning. You can see the trof in the southern Bahamas, that extends over Cuba gathering moisture form the tail of the front..give it a few days.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37459
487. RitaEvac
2:20 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
486. WaterWitch11
2:18 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Today: Rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 65. Light north northwest wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

well we got 3 and its not that often that we get them especially so early in the season. northern cali. its gonna be a wet winter. anyone wanna bet me? haven't seen what the doc thinks yet.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1582
485. stillwaiting
2:13 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
i wonder if this will stick,3rd time ive seen,both other times,nada.....3rd times a charm
img src="IMG 20111006 101007">

Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
484. Skyepony (Mod)
2:12 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
There's ex-92L, lacking convection.. & Philippe, in the lower left, he should be coming to shred it.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37459
483. KUEFC
2:12 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting MahFL:
If a storm does form, how will it go N or NNE or NW, as the strong steering seems to be NE right now ?


Due to the blocking pattern that will be set up when the storm forms,
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
482. Seflhurricane
2:11 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
as of right now i cannot see a system form anywhere near florida , first off the cold front is washing out and has literally cleared out the whole area and if you notice the upper level winds in the gulf of mexico they are quite strong looking at satelite images , so as of now the models may be wrong ???? lets wait and see
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481. MahFL
2:05 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
If a storm does form, how will it go N or NNE or NW, as the strong steering seems to be NE right now ?
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3381
480. WeatherfanPR
1:56 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
I don't see any hint of that supposed low that is going to form near Florida right now. I hope nothing develops at all.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1571
479. islander101010
1:49 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
good science experiment would be to see how the sand on the florida beaches fare with this upcoming systems before and after pictures
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4370
478. strong2011storm
1:38 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
remember that invest in the region of azores 92L in the begining of the week ?
look its going to southwest and brcoming beautifull.
tropical storm philipe is going to became an hurricane and a major hurricane, remember what i say
Member Since: September 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
477. Orcasystems
1:22 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
476. WxLogic
1:15 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Where's the stationary front that'll create Rina?


Might not become strong enough to become STS Rina, but the front is currently in the southern Bahamas.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4948
475. klaatuborada
1:15 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
of course, and my Husband and daughter are off to DisneyWorld for the weekend.
Member Since: August 15, 2004 Posts: 23 Comments: 392
474. interstatelover7165
1:08 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Where's the stationary front that'll create Rina?
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
473. interstatelover7165
12:56 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says Philippe is a hurricane:

AL, 17, 2011100612, , BEST, 0, 274N, 604W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 20, 0, 0, 1012, 175, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, D,

Attaboy, Philippe; you finally made it to the big leagues, and it only took you 288 hours! (FWIW, that's 16-5-3.)

While I'm at it: in the EPAC, TS Irwin has formed:

EP, 11, 2011100612, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1166W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 40, 1009, 180, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IRWIN, M,
Hi Irwin.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
472. islander101010
12:55 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Wonder if Phillipe is strong enough to punch a hole in that trough? Any thoughts anyone? He seems to have survived against all odds so far.
odd looking on vis for sure budged right up to it
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4370
471. TropicTraveler
12:49 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Wonder if Phillipe is strong enough to punch a hole in that trough? Any thoughts anyone? He seems to have survived against all odds so far.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 924
470. HurricaneDean07
12:48 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 978.6mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 3.8
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
469. Neapolitan
12:26 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
ATCF says Philippe is a hurricane:

AL, 17, 2011100612, , BEST, 0, 274N, 604W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 20, 0, 0, 1012, 175, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, D,

Attaboy, Philippe; you finally made it to the big leagues, and it only took you 288 hours! (FWIW, that's 16-5-3.)

While I'm at it: in the EPAC, TS Irwin has formed:

EP, 11, 2011100612, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1166W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 40, 1009, 180, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IRWIN, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13473
468. kshipre1
12:24 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
I really hope that does not pan out. I am going overseas on October 20!!

uh oh....now I am nervous
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
467. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:07 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Ok, now I'm out, bye.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
466. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:03 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting Ameister12:

Every EPac hurricane has.

I'll be back this afternoon.

Yeah, I'm off to school, be back this afternoon.

Later all...Don't fight too much.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
465. Ameister12
12:02 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It'll get stronger than forecast, watch. :P

Every EPac hurricane has.

I'll be back this afternoon.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4907
464. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:58 AM GMT on October 06, 2011
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) comparisons between the Atlantic basin and the Eastern Pacific basin:

Top 3 ACE producing storms in the ATL:

1) Katia - 24.8
2) Irene - 20.3
3) Ophelia - 18.4

Top 3 ACE producing storms in the ATL:

1) Hilary - 31.3
2) Eugene - 14.7
3) Dora - 14.7

Lowest ACE producing storm in the ATL:

- Franklin - 0.405

Lowest ACE producing storm in the EPAC:

- Calvin - 2.43

Total ACE for ATL: 102
Total ACE for EPAC: 84.4

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
463. DDR
11:58 AM GMT on October 06, 2011
Morning all
Expecting some heavy rain today again in Trinidad,yesterday had minor flooding in the south of the island.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1694
462. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:55 AM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting Ameister12:
Not looking good for Mexico. TD 10 is gonna hit Mexico as a hurricane.

It'll get stronger than forecast, watch. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
461. islander101010
11:52 AM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting Ameister12:
Not looking good for Mexico. TD 10 is gonna hit Mexico as a hurricane.
give texas a soaking hopefully
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4370

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.