Wet subtropical storm possible for Florida this weekend

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on October 05, 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rains is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. Most of the models develop this system into a tropical or subtropical storm, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The ECMWF model predicts the storm will form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, then move north into the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. If this track verifies, the oil rigs off the coast of Southeast Louisiana may experience a one or two day period of sustained winds above tropical storm force Monday or Tuesday. The GFS and NOGAPS models put the storm on the other side of Florida, over the Northwestern Bahamas, and predict the storm will move northwards and hit North Carolina on Wednesday. The UKMET model is in-between, developing the storm right on top of Florida. Since the storm is going to be getting its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center, bringing heavy rains to a wide region of the Southeast U.S. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core. If the storm follows the path of the GFS model, it could be similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974. That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has a more technical discussion of this coming storm for those interested.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Monday, October 10, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is about to interact with a frontal system and turn northeastward out to sea. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with a modest amount heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear will remain in the moderate range today, which may allow the storm to intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by several of the intensity forecast models. By Thursday, wind shear will rise to a very high 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that is expected to absorb the storm and recurve it to the northeast on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Latest GFS shows the system forming along the East Coast and finally gets going just off the Daytona Beach area.



just about an exact copy of 18z run yesterday
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Hey, everyone, if you are free at 7 p.m., we're going to be doing another live eSeries: Prepare to Survive. Tonight's guests include Bryan Koon, Florida's Emergency Management Director and Bob Lasher of the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority....

Should be a great show!

http://www.pinellascounty.org/eseries
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Latest GFS shows the system forming along the East Coast and finally gets going just off the Daytona Beach area.
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Quoting Ameister12:

I wonder why? It looks like it's organizing to me.

I agree, the T#'s are messed up, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32703
18z GFS at 132 hours:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32703
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

T#'s have been steadily decreasing since 4PM EDT or so.

Down to under 3.0 now.

I wonder why? Philippe looks like it's organizing to me.
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Quoting scott39:
So you dont think it could go in the E GOM?

Its definitely a good possibility.
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Quoting Ameister12:
The Tale of Two Invests.

Epac might give us two more hurricanes.


Will both threat Mexico is the question as the models indicate they may do that.
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Quoting E46Pilot:


What happened with that? I don't even remember, must not have been a big deal.

Link
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Quoting reedzone:
Tropical Storm Tammy of 2005 is a GREAT example of what Florida is going to experience this weekend into next week.

So you dont think it could go in the E GOM?
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Quoting reedzone:


A 50 mph. Tropical Storm that formed around this time in 2005. Formed from a NON TROPICAL low pressure system that interacted with a TW in the Bahamas.


Oh so like a long thunderstorm, not a big deal. Movie weather.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wouldn't say it is a GREAT example, but it is one of the more better ones.
well the genreal track and intensity is pretty good :) the formation and the possibility of it being sub tropical is still uncertain though
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Quoting Ameister12:

Yes it does and it's probably at 70mph right now. It still has tonight, and tomorrow morning to become a hurricane. Seems like it has a good shot at doing so, to me.
I think it has a good shot to become the fith hurricane.
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Quoting E46Pilot:


What happened with that? I don't even remember, must not have been a big deal.


A 50 mph. Tropical Storm that formed around this time in 2005. Formed from a NON TROPICAL low pressure system that interacted with a TW in the Bahamas.
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Quoting reedzone:
Tropical Storm Tammy of 2005 is a GREAT example of what Florida is going to experience this weekend into next week.



What happened with that? I don't even remember, must not have been a big deal.
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Quoting Ameister12:

Yes it does and it's probably at 70mph right now. It still has tonight, and tomorrow morning to become a hurricane. Seems like it has a good shot at doing so, to me.

T#'s have been steadily decreasing since 4PM EDT or so.

Down to under 3.0 now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32703
Quoting reedzone:
Tropical Storm Tammy of 2005 is a GREAT example of what Florida is going to experience this weekend into next week.


I wouldn't say it is a GREAT example, but it is one of the more better ones.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32703
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like Phillipe is ready to make that step to hurricane status.On Thursday the shear should start to be on the increase.

Yes it does and it's probably at 70mph right now. It still has tonight, and tomorrow morning to become a hurricane. Seems like it has a good shot at doing so, to me.
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Quoting Ameister12:
The Tale of Two Invests.

Epac might give us two more hurricanes.

The Eastern Pacific will likely give us Irwin and Jova, and both should reach hurricane and major hurricane status.

Seems to be the theme in the EPAC this season, I am just hoping it doesn't move into the Atlantic next season.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32703
Tropical Storm Tammy of 2005 is a GREAT example of what Florida is going to experience this weekend into next week.

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Quoting Ameister12:

Indeed. It should be an interesting evening.
Looks like Phillipe is ready to make that step to hurricane status.On Thursday the shear should start to be on the increase.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
man did u guys see the latest 12z GFS? after the subtropicl system a storm tries to go NE but instead gets trapped and moves sw back into the western carribean
have to raise the level if that happened
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The Tale of Two Invests.

Epac might give us two more hurricanes.
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Quoting Ameister12:
The sun sets upon an organizing Philippe.

Good night, Philippe. :P
Nighty Night, Philippe.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The timeline isn't being pushed back any longer. Our Subtropical Storm will likely develop early next week, with the Caribbean system following suit a few days later.

I was about to ask :P
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Think it is already evident where the general formation of the system will be.

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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


Did you see how long out it was? A storm was suppose to come from there for the last 3 weeks, when one forms I will believe it.

The timeline isn't being pushed back any longer. Our Subtropical Storm will likely develop early next week, with the Caribbean system following suit a few days later.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
We shall see what it holds in store for us over the evening and when we wake up.

Indeed. It should be an interesting evening.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
2004 and 2005 is always an exception when talking about Florida getting blown litterally out of the water.But really outside of those two years nothing has been really bad for Florida and I really don't see that with this system.So it can form...but generally I really wouldn't care.


I agree, on average we get hit by something once every 10 years. We've still got another 4 years before we see anything to write about.
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The wet MJO pulse has arrived at EPAC and now there are two invests that both for sure will develop. The question is if after they develop,will they threat the Mexican coast as some models indicate?
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Quoting Ameister12:
The sun sets upon an organizing Philippe.

Good night, Philippe. :P


Yep, good night Philippe.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32703
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
man did u guys see the latest 12z GFS? after the subtropicl system a storm tries to go NE but instead gets trapped and moves sw back into the western carribean


Did you see how long out it was? A storm was suppose to come from there for the last 3 weeks, when one forms I will believe it.
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Quoting Ameister12:
The sun sets upon an organizing Philippe.

Good night, Philippe. :)
We shall see what it holds in store for us over the evening and when we wake up.
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The sun sets upon an organizing Philippe.

Good night, Philippe. :P
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man did u guys see the latest 12z GFS? after the subtropicl system a storm tries to go NE but instead gets trapped and moves sw back into the western carribean
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Quoting E46Pilot:


Whenever they say Florida is going to get hit with something I feel safe because it always ends up going someplace else. We rarely get hit with anything. Don't go talking about 2005 because that was an anomaly.
2004 and 2005 is always an exception when talking about Florida getting blown litterally out of the water.But really outside of those two years nothing has been really bad for Florida and I really don't see that with this system.So it can form...but generally I really wouldn't care.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Good evening everyone!

Philippe looks stronger. Actually looking like a high-end TS.
Good Evening!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not to hyped about a storm forming next week slaming into Florida.Florida always get hit soooo I really don't....(not gonna say it before people start getting on my case.),Hey where is the cliche today?.I see they aren't on.


Whenever they say Florida is going to get hit with something I feel safe because it always ends up going someplace else. We rarely get hit with anything. Don't go talking about 2005 because that was an anomaly.
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I hope accuweather's forecast for once comes true.I want a snowey winter unlike last winter's dull coldness.
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Good evening everyone!
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Quoting hydrus:
14 inches of rain in 8 hours could flood quite a few locations. We had 15 and a half inches in 8 hours over Charlotte County June of 1995. Some roads were closed for weeks.


I meant the south east area, not sure about your situation on the west coast.
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118. KUEFC
Quoting Seflhurricane:
Expect the weather to deteriorate starting late Friday night all the way into monday
depends where you mean? Definately coastal areas will see more showers and higher wind, but inland imo certainly cloudy breezy and scatterd showers with isolated thunderstorms
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TS.Phillipe's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 4Oct_6pmGMT and ending 5Oct_6pmGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent TropicalStormPhillippe's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 5Oct_6pmGMT,
the coastline blob at 35.369n76.092w-7w6 is the endpoint of the 5Oct_12pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline blob at 33.488n79.08w-MYR is the same for the 5Oct_6amGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Phillipe's travel-speed was 5.8mph(9.4k/h) on a heading of 349.7degrees(N)
(348.75degrees is midway between NNW and N)
TS.Phillipe was headed toward passage over Pubnico,NovaScotia ~8days22hours from now

Copy&paste 33.488n79.08w-myr, 35.369n76.092w-7w6, 23.9n59.7w-24.3n60.2w, 24.3n60.2w-24.5n60.6w, 24.5n60.6w-25.0n61.2w, 25.0n61.2w-25.5n61.3w, 25.0n61.2w-43.561n65.784w, yqi, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 5Oct_12pmGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
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I'm not to hyped about a storm forming next week slaming into Florida.Florida always get hit soooo I really don't....(not gonna say it before people start getting on my case.),Hey where is the cliche today?.I see they aren't on.
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Quoting E46Pilot:
We can handle around 14 inches of rain here at one time in south Florida with out it becoming a problem. Anything over 14 inches though we will have major flooding.
14 inches of rain in 8 hours could flood quite a few locations. We had 15 and a half inches in 8 hours over Charlotte County June of 1995. Some roads were closed for weeks.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22278
Expect the weather to deteriorate starting late Friday night all the way into monday
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111. KUEFC
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I never said that.
ok sorry must have misread
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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