Wet subtropical storm possible for Florida this weekend

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on October 05, 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rains is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. Most of the models develop this system into a tropical or subtropical storm, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The ECMWF model predicts the storm will form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, then move north into the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. If this track verifies, the oil rigs off the coast of Southeast Louisiana may experience a one or two day period of sustained winds above tropical storm force Monday or Tuesday. The GFS and NOGAPS models put the storm on the other side of Florida, over the Northwestern Bahamas, and predict the storm will move northwards and hit North Carolina on Wednesday. The UKMET model is in-between, developing the storm right on top of Florida. Since the storm is going to be getting its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center, bringing heavy rains to a wide region of the Southeast U.S. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core. If the storm follows the path of the GFS model, it could be similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974. That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has a more technical discussion of this coming storm for those interested.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Monday, October 10, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is about to interact with a frontal system and turn northeastward out to sea. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with a modest amount heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear will remain in the moderate range today, which may allow the storm to intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by several of the intensity forecast models. By Thursday, wind shear will rise to a very high 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that is expected to absorb the storm and recurve it to the northeast on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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261. GTcooliebai
12:31 AM GMT on October 06, 2011
It looks like the downcasting games have begun :-P...and as far as some folks calling it a dull season, while there hasn't been the usual wind impacts from Major Hurricanes & Storm Surge, there has been some pretty bad flooding from Lee & Irene all up and down the East Coast. I guess some people think in order for it to be an active season, the storms must come barreling through with their ferocious winds and devastating storm surge.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
260. starbuck02
12:31 AM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting FrankZapper:
I can say with confidence that this much ballyhooed upcoming tropical storm is going to be a big NOTHING, just like every storm that is pumped up when nothing exists. A big zero. Oh, the fraud boys at the Hurricane Bureau will do their best to name something, anything so they can try and call this joke of a season a bad one. It's all done to keep our tax dollars flowing to their pockets. So get ready for the big nothing. After all Halloween is around the corner. Boo!


Yeah because Andrew, Katrina, Charley, and numerous other storms were "nothing". Let's just shut down the NHC until we feel a CAT 5 make landfall and then open it back up.
Member Since: April 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
259. will40
12:31 AM GMT on October 06, 2011
he is not going anywhere untill you nut heads stop feeding him
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4109
258. WeatherNerdPR
12:30 AM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting FrankZapper:
I can say with confidence that this much ballyhooed upcoming tropical storm is going to be a big NOTHING, just like every storm that is pumped up when nothing exists. A big zero. Oh, the fraud boys at the Hurricane Bureau will do their best to name something, anything so they can try and call this joke of a season a bad one. It's all done to keep our tax dollars flowing to their pockets. So get ready for the big nothing. After all Halloween is around the corner. Boo!

Tell that to the families of the 118 lost this season. You might think this year's a dud, but many disagree.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5618
257. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:29 AM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting FrankZapper:
I can say with confidence that this much ballyhooed upcoming tropical storm is going to be a big NOTHING, just like every storm that is pumped up when nothing exists. A big zero. Oh, the fraud boys at the Hurricane Bureau will do their best to name something, anything so they can try and call this joke of a season a bad one. It's all done to keep our tax dollars flowing to their pockets. So get ready for the big nothing. After all Halloween is around the corner. Boo!


Because you really know more than they do.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31319
254. wunderweatherman123
12:24 AM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Favorable.
well i wouldnt say favorable but i wouldnt say marginable :) remember the Sub tropical jet will be to the south of the system so there will be a small pocket of low shear :) thats not to say you cant get a cat 1 out of it or at least a moderate ts.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1278
253. trunkmonkey
12:24 AM GMT on October 06, 2011
Thanks, TropicalAnalystwx13
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
252. interstatelover7165
12:24 AM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting biowizard:
RIP Steve Jobs, truly one of the Great Men and Visionaries of Our Time ...

... suddenly the news that Ophelia is damping down Britain and blowing leaves off trees ceases to matter.

The world is a poorer place this morning for Steve's passing, and yet the weather will go on.

Brian
Intersting, like Irene And Katia.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
251. FrankZapper
12:23 AM GMT on October 06, 2011
I can say with confidence that this much ballyhooed upcoming tropical storm is going to be a big NOTHING, just like every storm that is pumped up when nothing exists. A big zero. Oh, the fraud boys at the Hurricane Bureau will do their best to name something, anything so they can try and call this joke of a season a bad one. It's all done to keep our tax dollars flowing to their pockets. So get ready for the big nothing. After all Halloween is around the corner. Boo!
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I'm just a Lurker, in here, hows the Shear for the GOM and the eastern side of FLA over the weekend?

Favorable.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31319
Quoting arekay:
lol Really? Denial much? I know its been a rather dull season in regards to CONUS impacts but lets stop hopping on every model run. I live in SW FLA and not one news station is emphasizing big storms in our future. Its FL, we get rain and wind on a usual basis.




the fact that you are still calling this a dull season in terms of US impacts when we have had a 10 billion dollar storm and a TS that caused significant flooding this year tells me a lot about you

You are the one in denial and you are nothing but a troll
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm just a Lurker, in here, hows the Shear for the GOM and the eastern side of FLA over the weekend?
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
05/2345 UTC 26.1N 61.1W T3.5/3.5 PHILIPPE -- Atlantic

05/2345 UTC 9.8N 104.6W T1.5/1.5 98E -- East Pacific
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31319
Quoting biowizard:
RIP Steve Jobs, truly one of the Great Men and Visionaries of Our Time ...

... suddenly the news that Ophelia is damping down Britain and blowing leaves off trees ceases to matter.

The world is a poorer place this morning for Steve's passing, and yet the weather will go on.

Brian
Are you a Rastafarian?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi goodnight everyone, it has been a while since I last posted, been bombarded with a Physics Test, numerous Calculus Quizzes, and Lab Reports...and now I got a CTAP paper to write for Ethics class...So what's hot in the tropics? I hear of this storm that could form off the coast of FL. this weekend and that it may be sub-tropical in nature. What you all think the chances are of this happening?

Furthermore, I see the GFS has been consistent in developing something in the Bahamas in about 102 hours >5 days. If something develops there or in the Gulf, or NW Caribbean, the water temps & TCHP are definitely supportive of a tropical storm or even a Hurricane, I don't know how the atmospheric conditions are going to be like though, if anybody cares to fill me in on that :)
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
RIP Steve Jobs, truly one of the Great Men and Visionaries of Our Time ...

... suddenly the news that Ophelia is damping down Britain and blowing leaves off trees ceases to matter.

The world is a poorer place this morning for Steve's passing, and yet the weather will go on.

Brian
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Both of them will likely reach hurricane and major hurricane status, and both will likely make landfall in Mexico at hurricane/major hurricane landfall status.
are you serious bro? wow to think mexico has had some pretty close hits from the pacific side and now 2 systems coming towards them... wow :O
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1278
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Off-topic:

Ex-Apple CEO Steve Jobs has died.
wow, that's too bad

RIP
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
so where these 2 systems heading? west out to sea or the october reucruve track into mexcio? intensity predictions? :P


Both of them will likely reach hurricane and major hurricane status, and both will likely make landfall in Mexico at hurricane/major hurricane landfall status.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31319
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH, I understand now.

97E: TD #10

98E: TD #11

lol
Now you see the light.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.

The NHC will start issuing advisories on both Tropical Depression 10 and Tropical Depression 11 at 2AM PDT (5AM EDT).

Both of them...at the same time...by the NHC...at 2AM PDT.
so where these 2 systems heading? west out to sea or the october reucruve track into mexcio? intensity predictions? :P
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1278
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes.. E not L but which one will be designated TD 10E? is it 97E?


OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH, I understand now.

97E: TD #10

98E: TD #11

lol
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31319
well WU screwed up and put an L on them at the main page
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4109
Quoting JLPR2:


97e formed first so i guess it would get designated 10e and 98e formed second so it would be 11e.

That's how I see it.


thanks you much, you answered my question :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


You mean 97e and 98e or this blog would be nuts right now. XD


yes.. E not L but which one will be designated TD 10E? is it 97E?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
233. JLPR2
Quoting BDADUDE:
How can they do it at exactly the same time? Makes no sense.


97e formed first so I guess it would get designated 10e and 98e formed second so it would be 11e.

That's how I see it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BDADUDE:
How can they do it at exactly the same time? Makes no sense.


Sighs.... :\

Nevermind.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31319
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.

The NHC will start issuing advisories on both Tropical Depression 10 and Tropical Depression 11 at 2AM PDT (5AM EDT).

Both of them...at the same time...by the NHC...at 2AM PDT.


forget you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
230. JLPR2
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED OCT 5 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

97L
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

98L
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Will 97L be named first or numbered first than 98L or the other way around?


You mean 97e and 98e or this blog would be nuts right now. XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.

The NHC will start issuing advisories on both Tropical Depression 10 and Tropical Depression 11 at 2AM PDT (5AM EDT).

Both of them...at the same time...by the NHC...at 2AM PDT.
How can they do it at exactly the same time? Makes no sense.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


oh, ok. so we will have TD 10 and TD 10
ohh, sounds good... right?

No.

The NHC will start issuing advisories on both Tropical Depression 10 and Tropical Depression 11 at 2AM PDT (5AM EDT).

Both of them...at the same time...by the NHC...at 2AM PDT.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31319
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Both of them...at the same time...


oh, ok. so we will have TD 10E and TD 10E
ohh, sounds good... right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And I'm using my iPhone.


and Im using my imac. lol
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I asking which one will be first?

Both of them...at the same time...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31319
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

And I'm using my iPad.

And I'm using my iPhone.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31319
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


They'll probably BOTH be classified at 2AM PDT (5AM EDT).


I asking which one will be first?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

And I'm using my iPad.
Why do you have an ipad?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"Sean" develops in the southwestern Caribbean, moves WNW across the Yucatan peninsula, into the Gulf of Mexico, and curves east into Florida as a strong hurricane...Crosses the state, and stalls off the SE coast.



and Rina?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
R.I.P. Steve Jobs.

I'm using my Mac Book in your memory. :)

And I'm using my iPad.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5618
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED OCT 5 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

97L
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

98L
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Will 97L be named first or numbered first than 98L or the other way around?


They'll probably BOTH be classified at 2AM PDT (5AM EDT).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31319
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED OCT 5 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

97L
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

98L
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Will 97L be named first or numbered first than 98L or the other way around?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
R.I.P. Steve Jobs.

I'm using my Mac Book in your memory. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

84F? That is a little too warm for me :P


Then you wouldn't like it down here for half a year :P 84 is the low during the summer, and even that is conservative with the heat index. I love the heat. :P
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Quoting arekay:
If that's the case, thats the best scenario for South FL.



That's not necessarily true, because subtropical storms are broad in nature, and Florida will get very heavy rains and strong winds regardless.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31319
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yep.


Yay... :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED OCT 5 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31319
STEVE JOBS IS DEAD.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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