Wet subtropical storm possible for Florida this weekend

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on October 05, 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rains is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. Most of the models develop this system into a tropical or subtropical storm, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The ECMWF model predicts the storm will form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, then move north into the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. If this track verifies, the oil rigs off the coast of Southeast Louisiana may experience a one or two day period of sustained winds above tropical storm force Monday or Tuesday. The GFS and NOGAPS models put the storm on the other side of Florida, over the Northwestern Bahamas, and predict the storm will move northwards and hit North Carolina on Wednesday. The UKMET model is in-between, developing the storm right on top of Florida. Since the storm is going to be getting its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center, bringing heavy rains to a wide region of the Southeast U.S. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core. If the storm follows the path of the GFS model, it could be similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974. That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has a more technical discussion of this coming storm for those interested.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Monday, October 10, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is about to interact with a frontal system and turn northeastward out to sea. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with a modest amount heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear will remain in the moderate range today, which may allow the storm to intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by several of the intensity forecast models. By Thursday, wind shear will rise to a very high 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that is expected to absorb the storm and recurve it to the northeast on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Seflhurricane:
by when does it seem the NHC will start to mention a low chance potential area


When possible development is within the 48hr window dictated by their tropical weather outlook product.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

If a subtropical cyclone does form, unless it transitions to a fully tropical system, I doubt it will become a hurricane. A moderate strength tropical/subtropical storm is likely given the conditions aloft (cold air, moderate to heavy shear). If something forms in the Western Caribbean, it will almost undoubtedly become a hurricane due to the insane TCHP and returning upward pulse of the MJO. That's what I understood after looking at model runs.
I just took a look at the 18z GFS and it shows the system riding up or just off the east coast of FL. albeit weak the lowest I see is a 1000mb. in the red numbers, not sure what the difference is between the other 2 numbers bolded in black? Also, the GFS shows a system forming near the Yucatan around the 16th & 17th. next Sunday time frame.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting TomTaylor:



Internet forums and blogs all have the same people visiting them, it's ENTIRELY up to the administrative team to control the chaos and maintain decency on the website.


...this is why I have AdBlocker and not a WU subscription.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


You are right. Sometimes it is hard to ignore those who want to bring this blog into the dirt.

Not for me.
But perhaps this comes with age ;)
We have had nice cool breezes for days here along the coast of ECFL.
Have a nice evening everyone.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Don't mention it, I just wish someone would answer my question, post 245. I want to know if the chance are really good something comes out of this and whether or not the atmospheric conditions support a strong tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane?

If a subtropical cyclone does form, unless it transitions to a fully tropical system, I doubt it will become a hurricane. A moderate strength tropical/subtropical storm is likely given the conditions aloft (cold air, moderate to heavy shear). If something forms in the Western Caribbean, it will almost undoubtedly become a hurricane due to the insane TCHP and returning upward pulse of the MJO. That's what I understood after looking at model runs.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LOL

This place has become so immature.

I don't have high standards on the internet; it's pretty hard to regulate and therefore immaturity seems to go hand and hand with the internet. Nonetheless, the scene on this blog is pathetic.

At times I used to feel sympathetic for Dr. Masters because he took the time each and every day to write up a new blog only for the comment section to be filled with spam, immaturity, and all other forms of rule breaking. Now, however, the more I think about it I realize not only is he making money off the trolls and immature posters (they are some of the most active posters, therefore pulling in some of the greatest advertisement revenue), but when you get right down to the bottom of it, it's his fault the blog is this way.

Internet forums and blogs all have the same people visiting them, it's ENTIRELY up to the administrative team to control the chaos and maintain decency on the website.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Don't mention it, I just wish someone would answer my question, post 245. I want to know if the chance are really good something comes out of this and whether or not the atmospheric conditions support a strong tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane?


If you read Dr. Masters' last two blogs he seems to think it will develop into at least a strong tropical storm. The question is whether it will form in the eastern GOM and end up landfalling in the Panhandle or form further east and end up trundling along the east coast of Florida. Since he's brought up the 1974 storm in the two consecutive blogs and is posting a graphic of this:

Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Monday, October 10, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Then I suspect it is the eastern route that is more likely.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I think we have to watch for 2 systems. Levi has talked about this as well. Wind shear from the southern jet should remain too strong along with cold air aloft should keep it as subtropical. It is my feeling that a week later we could see a hurricane in the Caribbean. The MJO is coming back with a vengence (see 2 storms forming in the East Pacific) and SST's in the NW Caribbean are plenty warm. The long range GFS is hinting at this.
Ok well...sounds like some interesting weeks lie ahead, thanks for your input.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
In all honesty, nights like tonight Dr. Masters blog reminds me of this.
Link


Back to tropics. Models are still all over the place with the formation of a Caribbean system, it keeps on getting pushed down the timeline. Whenever you start seeing the ECMWF and GFS start being consistent in the long range, then you see the CMC and NOGAPS get onboard in the 144 hour timeframe, it will probably happen. We have that with the idea of a subtropical storm, we don't have that for anything in the Caribbean.
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Evening All.

Figured I would inject some tropical verbiage in to the otherwise conversation, lol.

Interesting weekend ahead and, as previously indicated, could be the precursor of things to come in October. Mom nature is not done yet, IMO.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 060044
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
844 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TOUGHEST PART OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING JUST SW OF THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD. ACCORDING TO GFS AND TO SOME DEGREE, THE ECMWF,
THIS LOW SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE STRONG LOW LVL MOIST ATLANTIC
FLOW TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. GFS NOW HAS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MENTIONED BEFORE, BUT
FURTHER WESTWARD. IN FACT MOVES IT NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. 00Z ECMWF STILL POINTS TO A DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS, OF COURSE, PRODUCES TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.
GFS NOW SHOWS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A CONVERGENCE BANDS DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW. ECMWF, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS A BAND DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NW CUBA
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DECIDED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
ALL AREAS SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED EAST FLOW AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE SFC LOW BEING JUST SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES ON WX CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY STILL
PRETTY HIGH. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE STRONG EAST FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND POSSIBLY BEACH EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


He's an immature kid who does a poor job at ignoring posts. Several others commented on the same post but with a bit more maturity. Doesn't make it right though. This blog use to be a great place to have conversations about weather. Trolls have totally ruined it.

Not really.
If you flag, ignore, and don't quote they disappear pretty quickly.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
OK, so we should watch for potential subtropical trouble sometime during the first half of next week, and watch for development in the Western Caribbean later next week or next weekend? Am I getting it right?


Yes
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OK, so we should watch for potential subtropical trouble sometime during the first half of next week, and watch for development in the Western Caribbean later next week or next weekend? Am I getting it right?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Thanks. Finally someone answered my question.
Don't mention it, I just wish someone would answer my question, post 245. I want to know if the chance are really good something comes out of this and whether or not the atmospheric conditions support a strong tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting jrweatherman:


Do us all a favor and get the hell out of here


So quit quoting the guy.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Could very well be, I'm guessing that was the old frontal boundary that came across FL. & gave us a nice shot of Fall weather. It looks like it will be lifting back up as a warm front.

Thanks. Finally someone answered my question.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I agree with you about him. However, I don't agree with your earler post and that is my right:)
No problem.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting clwstmchasr:


He's an immature kid who does a poor job at ignoring posts. Several others commented on the same post but with a bit more maturity. Doesn't make it right though. This blog use to be a great place to have conversations about weather. Trolls have totally ruined it.


Bite me. I rip on a troll and get reported. LOL LOL LOL He rips the NHC. Doesn't he know that the co-founder of this site use to work there.
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LOL

This place has become so immature.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Is that inmense area of thunderstorms near the Bahamas the precursor to the Florida STS?
Could very well be, I'm guessing that was the old frontal boundary that came across FL. & gave us a nice shot of Fall weather. It looks like it will be lifting back up as a warm front.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Jobs is just another RICH guy who met his fate,


May he rest in Peace!


May President Obama get his wish and Tax the Jobs estate with 75% and share the apple wealth with us PO FOLKS!

We deserve it.
not enough initiative to make more $$$$ for yourself? FSU fan probably?
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yes, but that happens in other areas of the world as a result of monsoon flooding & this kind of flooding is quite common especially in India, those people just learn to live with it since they have no choice because it is a permanent feature that doesn't go away. In our side of the world we don't get monsoon flooding, we get more of our flooding through the tropics & this year Irene did a number on the Northeast, which is unprecedented & unlike anything we have seen in the past 100 years.


If memory serves me correct, the NE had an unusually wet period leading up to Irene, which served to exasperate an already bad situation. All I was trying to say is that "dud season" is taken differently by who ever you talk to. I'm not disagreeing with you though.
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There are two certainties in any online forum:

1) Trolls exist for attention at any cost, no matter how negative that attention may be. The sole reason they make comments that are sure to provoke a reaction is for that attention to be focused on them.

2) If those trolls are deprived of that attention, they will go elsewhere.

Thank you. As you were...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455
Quoting hyperstratocumulus:


Many more people DIE each yr from flash floods and other natural disasters apart from TS/hurricane disasters. "Dud season" is completely relative, depending on how each person defines the term
Yes, but that happens in other areas of the world as a result of monsoon flooding & this kind of flooding is quite common especially in India, those people just learn to live with it since they have no choice because it is a permanent feature that doesn't go away. In our side of the world we don't get monsoon flooding, we get more of our flooding through the tropics & this year Irene did a number on the Northeast, which is unprecedented & unlike anything we have seen in the past 100 years.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Nevermind, 98E will probably become a TD before 97E:

EP, 97, 2011100600, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1157W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I'm just a Lurker, in here, hows the Shear for the GOM and the eastern side of FLA over the weekend?
Marginal to decent.

There will be a small pocket of lower shear off the east coast of Florida, however, with the subtropical jet surrounding the area, I doubt shear will ever get too light directly over the storm and there should be pretty hefty shear values surrounding it.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 98E:

EP, 98, 2011100600, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1047W, 30, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

TS Philippe:

AL, 17, 2011100600, , BEST, 0, 261N, 611W, 55, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 1013, 180, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,
EPIC FAIL. Wow, P's Pressure is only Nine hPa away from EP-Ninty Eight's Pressure.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well it definitely won't make hurricane status if it stays subtropical. So I'm not worried much either, & won't be unless the GFS blows up this system in its future runs.


The bigger potential threat will come from the Caribbean down the road as the mjo comes to town.
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Is that inmense area of thunderstorms near the Bahamas the precursor to the Florida STS?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
Invest 98E:

EP, 98, 2011100600, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1047W, 30, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

TS Philippe:

AL, 17, 2011100600, , BEST, 0, 261N, 611W, 55, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 1013, 180, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
Quoting hyperstratocumulus:
So what if Zapper thinks its a dud, Zapper has the right to believe anything he wants. If you dont like him ignore him!

I personally dont believe the next subtropical system is going to amount to much except some stiff wind and a lot of rain.
Well it definitely won't make hurricane status if it stays subtropical. So I'm not worried much either, & won't be unless the GFS blows up this system in its future runs.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
irwin or jova. which name is more intimidating? also the ACE for the pacific for a la nina year is actually above average 84.4 :P
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1289
Quoting GTcooliebai:
It looks like the downcasting games have begun :-P...and as far as some folks calling it a dull season, while there hasn't been the usual wind impacts from Major Hurricanes & Storm Surge, there has been some pretty bad flooding from Lee & Irene all up and down the East Coast. I guess some people think in order for it to be an active season, the storms must come barreling through with their ferocious winds and devastating storm surge.


Many more people DIE each yr from flash floods and other natural disasters apart from TS/hurricane disasters. "Dud season" is completely relative, depending on how each person defines the term
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I can't believe he's gone.

We've lost the Thomas Edison of our time.
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
what happens if the two invests in the Pacific reach TS status at the same time? how do they determine which gets what name?

Whichever one was declared an invest first.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
So what if Zapper thinks its a dud, Zapper has the right to believe anything he wants. If you dont like him ignore him!

I personally dont believe the next subtropical system is going to amount to much except some stiff wind and a lot of rain.
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what happens if the two invests in the Pacific reach TS status at the same time? how do they determine which gets what name?
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i sooooooooooooo wish they would do away with the quote button
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4109
It looks like the downcasting games have begun :-P...and as far as some folks calling it a dull season, while there hasn't been the usual wind impacts from Major Hurricanes & Storm Surge, there has been some pretty bad flooding from Lee & Irene all up and down the East Coast. I guess some people think in order for it to be an active season, the storms must come barreling through with their ferocious winds and devastating storm surge.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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